Dodgers Simulation, September 24th

I used my simulator to simulate 25000 baseball games between the Dodgers and Nationals using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran at 10:00PM)


Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob AccuScore
LAN WAS V.Padilla vs J.Martin LAN 59.35% 54.71% 60%

 Skinny:  Simulator Fun Facts... Rubber game vs the Nationals and "Take 2" for the Dodgers attempt to sew up a playoff birth.  After last nights disappointment the Dodgers will do battle against the Nationals own J.Martin.  Vegas and AccuScore are in great agreement on the Dodgers win probability, while the simulator, which has shortchanged the Dodgers in the previous two games, lowballs once again.



Top 20 Most Likely Scores

1 WAS 4-3
2 WAS 5-4
3 WAS 3-2
4 LAN 4-3
5 WAS 6-5
6 LAN 5-4
7 LAN 3-2
8 LAN 4-2
9 LAN 5-3
10 WAS 5-3
11 LAN 6-4
12 LAN 5-2
13 WAS 7-6
14 WAS 4-2
15 LAN 6-5
16 LAN 6-3
17 WAS 2-1
18 WAS 6-4
19 LAN 3-1
20 WAS 5-2


Game Pitching Results

Pitcher WHIP FIP
V.Padilla 1.461 4.45
J.Martin 1.473 4.709


Note: Keep in mind I did this simulation before knowing the actual starting lineups, so some of the players I used may not be starting.   Many of the "Players Most Likely To" stats depend on having the correct lineup.  The lineups  I used are listed below.  Chances are you won't see a big difference in win probability from having the lineup order slightly off.  Picking the correct starters is more important, especially if one of the better players is taking the day off.  But you still won't see a big change in win probability if the starter and backup are interchangeable.

Simulation Lineups
1 R.Furcal W.Harris
2 M.Kemp C.Guzman
3 A.Ethier R.Zimmerman
4 M.Ramirez A.Dunn
5 C.Blake J.Willingham
6 J.Loney E.Dukes
7 R.Belliard J.Bard
8 R.Martin I.Desmond
9 V.Padilla J.Martin


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