Dodgers Look To Plunder Their Way To Postseason
by Eric Stephen on Sep 25, 2009 12:00 PM PDT
in Dodgers Game Previews
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PrintThe Dodgers handed one opponent their 100th loss on the season by beating the Nationals last night, but they won't get the opportunity to do the same to Pittsburgh. The Pirates are 56-95 heading into the four-game series at PNC Park starting tonight. The Dodgers are close to clinching both a playoff spot and the division, and are facing a team in a complete tailspin in these Pittsburgh Pirates:
- The Pirates have lost six straight games, and 23 out of their last 26, the Pirates' worst streak since 1890. No other team has had a 26-game run that bad this season.
- The Pirates have also lost 42 of their last 55 games. No other team has had a 55-game run that bad this season.
- They have also lost 55 of their last 75 games. No other team has had a 75-game run that bad this season.
- Since the All-Star break, the Pirates have been outscored by 126 runs. That is two runs per game!
- The Pirates are more respectable at home, with a 37-40 record on the season, but they are even struggling at PNC Park too, losing 21 of their last 30 home games
- If Rodney Dangerfield played the Pirates, he would get respect.
The Dodgers have won 46 of their last 60 against the Pirates, included 26-6 in their last 32 games at PNC Park.
Jon Garland has pitched well as a Dodger so far (2.33 ERA, 3.97 FIP, 4.16 x-FIP in four starts), but take a look at the opponents he has faced:
| Opponent | Frequency | OPS+ (NL Rank) |
| Arizona | twice | 90 (13th of 16) |
| Pittsburgh | once | 89 (14th of 16) |
| San Francisco | once | 82 (15th of 16) |
Its not Garland's fault that he has had such an easy schedule. After all, all you can do is play the teams on your schedule. The schedule is determined by Major League Baseball, not by Bill Snyder. However, a look at Garland's Dodger schedule makes it seem like he's the new guy at the office, the owner's son with the corner office and no real responsibility. To Garland's credit, he has pitched six innings or longer in 20 of his last 21 starts, with a 3.32 ERA and 4.23 FIP during that span.
If you are looking for strikeouts, tonight might not be your night. There are 139 pitchers that have thrown at least 90 innings this season. Here are how tonight's starting pitchers stack up in the strikeout department:
| Pitcher | K/9 | NL Rank |
| Jon Garland |
4.58 | 125th (of 139) |
| Jeff Karstens |
4.42 | 133rd (of 139) |
Pittsburgh Post-Gazette beat writer extraordinaire Dejan Kovacevic noted the Pirates are "hoping to get 4-5 innings out of Karstens. After that, [manager John Russell] will choose from Donnie Veal, Denny Bautista, Steven Jackson, Chris Bootcheck or Eric Hacker." Karstens hasn't started a game since June 5, but has a 5.83 ERA and 4.91 FIP in 26 relief appearances since then. Opposing batters are hitting .276/.351/.483 off Karstens this season, or in other words, the league is Hunter Pence against him.
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Today's scoreboard watching
4:05 pm
Braves (Javier Vazquez: 14-9, 2.77 FIP) at Nationals (John Lannan: 9-12, 4.83 FIP)
The Dodgers can clinch a playoff spot today with a win OR a loss by Atlanta
5:10 pm
Cardinals (Chris Carpenter: 16-4, 2.80 FIP) at Rockies (Aaron Cook: 10-6, 4.66 FIP)
The Dodgers' magic number to clinch the NL West is three. Aaron Cook returns from the disabled list to make his first start since August 21.
**********
Check out Xeifrank's simulation of today's game here.
Don't forget to RSVP for True Blue LA Day at Dodger Stadium, on the next-to-last day of the regular season, October 3 against the Rockies.
Get your guesses in for our today's "One, Two, Three Strikes, You're Out," here.
Game Time: 4:05pm
TV: Prime Ticket
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Weather
Monday and Steiner were saying that chances of rain tonight were around 40%. Chances of rain tomorrow is 80%. 2 rain outs would be a pain in the ass to make up.
Dodger Notes
TRIPLE CROWN WITHIN REACH – The Dodgers currently lead the National League in batting average (.273) and ERA (3.41) and are tied for second in the league with a .987 fielding percentage, just .01 behind the league-leading Pirates. Should the Dodgers take over the league lead in fielding percentage and maintain their lead in the other two categories, it would mark the first time since the 2001 Mariners that one team led its league in average, ERA, and fielding percentage (.288, 3.54, .986). The last National League team to accomplish the feat was the 1946 St. Louis Cardinals, which had a .265 average, 3.01 ERA, and .980 fielding percentage.
The Tripple Crown
Of meaningless stats. Too bad they couldn’t squeeze RBIs in there.
Almost equally relevant stats:
The Dodgers also lead the league in scrappyness, gamerness per player ,and veteran leadership.
If we hit that bullseye, the rest of the dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate.
but what about HPI* and CPG*?
*Heart per Inning and Clutch per Game
by stillnotah8er on Sep 25, 2009 1:41 PM PDT up reply actions
Team RBI is ABSOLUTELY RELEVENT.
The only more relevant offensive stat is runs scored.
Same with Team ERA.
You may be having trouble differentiating the evaluation of the sum of the parts and the whole.
Dodger Notes
►Furcal finished the Washington series 10-for-14, good for a .714 average. Since the Dodgers moved to Los Angeles in 1958, only one other player has had a higher batting average in a series with 10+ at-bats – Jimmy Wynn who went 13-for-18 (.722) in a four-game 1974 series against the Padres. Source: Elias
I need to get my hands on that database.
by Eric Stephen on Sep 25, 2009 12:10 PM PDT up reply actions
Dodger Notes
► Last night, Kemp became the first player in franchise history with 25 homers, 30 steals, a .300 average, and 100 RBI in a single season.
I don’t like so much that that stat is being celebrated as complete yet. Kemp still needs to finish at .300 or above (I think he will).
Reminds me of giving a guy a plaque for getting 1,000 yards rushing, then him getting stopped for a loss and not getting the 1,000 yards after all.
by Eric Stephen on Sep 25, 2009 12:11 PM PDT up reply actions
He’d be the first 30/30/100 guy too, even without hitting .300.
Mondesi is still the only Dodger 30/30 man:
1997: 30/32, 87 RBI, .310 avg
1999: 33/36, 99 RBI, .253 avg
by Eric Stephen on Sep 25, 2009 12:16 PM PDT up reply actions
Good point
he could easily fall short of .300. This is certainly premature celebration.
by meercatjohn on Sep 25, 2009 12:58 PM PDT up reply actions
Dave Hampton of the Atlanta Falcons, 1972
Got to 1001 yards, play was stopped, ball awarded, etc. Lost six yards on his next carry and did not get the chance to carry the ball again, finishing with 995.
Good pull. I forgot his name but remembered I read something from Joe P earlier this year:
joeposnanski.com/…/the-remarkable-saga-of-dave-hampton/
by Eric Stephen on Sep 25, 2009 1:23 PM PDT up reply actions
I had to look up the year to be certain of it
But everything I else I remembered from long ago.
For you youngsters, there were two less regular season games back then, so 1000 yards was a bigger deal then.
Dodger Notes
G-22 – It’s fitting that the Group of 20 Summit is underway here in Pittsburgh , as the Dodgers’ international history has been well documented. In fact, the Dodgers have had players born in 22 countries or territories appear in a game for them during the franchise’s history, most recently adding Nicaragua to the list when Vicente Padilla joined the team this season. The Dodgers’ current roster represents eight different countries ( Canada , the Dominican Republic , Japan , Mexico , Nicaragua , Taiwan , the United States , and Venezuela ).
Pirates lineup - Pee Wee!
from Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review:
McCutchen CF
LaRoche 3B
Jones 1B
Doumit C
Milledge LF
Moss RF
Young 2B
Cruz SS
Karstens P
Rob (Ohio)
What is your prediction matchups for the NCLS and ALCS games?
Peter Gammons
(2:25 PM)
I think that the team is in the most interesting position in the final 10 days is Los Angeles. Chad Billingsley threw the best he has in a month Wednesday night and Kershaw comes back on Sunday. The Dodgers are the only team in the NL playoffs whose bullpen is certain, so they may be in a much better position than they looked a month ago. A Dodger matchup with either Philadelphia or St. Louis in the first round will be an absolute toss up and I think either the Phillies or the Cardinals can beat the Rockies, even as well as the Rockies have played under Jim Tracy.
I met Dejan Kovacevic
Last year at the winter meetings, I told him that I enjoyed his work, he was very pleasant.
We did not discuss Jim Tracy.
Which Dodger pitcher
has the most innings pitched over the past 30 days?
Hint #1: He’s infamous for being an innings eater.
Hint #2: His first name is Jon
Hint #3: He’s pitching tonight
Hint #4: He use to play on the Diamondbacks.
Hint #5: His favorite golf movie is Caddyshack.
vr, Xei
Hint #6: He is hung by many during Christmas
by Eric Stephen on Sep 25, 2009 1:19 PM PDT up reply actions
No; the slash stats against Karstens are similar to 2009 Pence.
by Eric Stephen on Sep 25, 2009 1:44 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
the power of the socks
the only reason the ‘06 a’s went to the nlcs… the reason the cards are back…
feel the power
by stillnotah8er on Sep 25, 2009 1:46 PM PDT up reply actions
RT @DodgertownUSA: #Dodgers lineup: Furcal, SS Ethier, RF Ramirez, LF Kemp, CF Loney, 1B DeWitt, 3B Hudson, 2B Ausmus, C Garland, P
by Eric Stephen on Sep 25, 2009 1:47 PM PDT via mobile reply actions
I’m feeling $50k for him tonight
by Eric Stephen on Sep 25, 2009 1:51 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
fairly scrubby infield
wonder if loretta will touch a bat in the postseason
by stillnotah8er on Sep 25, 2009 1:49 PM PDT up reply actions
What are the odds that in every remaining regular-season game we see at least one regular starter (Martin, Loney, Hudson, Blake, Furcal, Manny, Kemp, Ethier) resting? I could see it happening possibly.
Tomorrow might just be the final regular 8 lineup until the playoffs.
by Eric Stephen on Sep 25, 2009 1:58 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
On tonight’s pregame show, Torre said Blake was close to coming back, and that he would probably start tomorrow.
by Eric Stephen on Sep 25, 2009 2:25 PM PDT up reply actions
Did I miss something?
In the game summary comments, Tripon posted an Olney quote that included this:
Billingsley hyperextended the joint [left knee] in August, as he finished delivering a pitch
I don’t remember hearing anything about this. I know about the hammy tweak of course, and it being “heavily wrapped” a couple starts into his return, but I don’t recall anything about his left knee. If true, left knee soreness could easily affect his delivery.
Is the left knee old news that I somehow missed? Or is my mind going faster than I thought?
I believe the knee injury was on ESPN at Atlanta. It was reported as a cramp by the Dodgers IIRC even though the replays looked like a possible hyperextension.
by Eric Stephen on Sep 25, 2009 2:12 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
ugh i hate stan conte for some reason
by hirambocachica on Sep 25, 2009 2:13 PM PDT up reply actions
To be accurate
I believe Olney was citing some scouts who said that, there has been no official diagnosis to that effect.
And this is the same medical staff that
Has been very cautious with the pitchers, I mean to have Kuo out there at all is probably akin to a minor medical miracle.
I meant “sounding very familiar” in terms of jogging my memory, not a criticism of the Dodger medical staff.
OT - Bruce Pearl, U of Tennessee BB coach, had to apologize for a joke he told at a charity fundraiser last night
“I’ve got a tough job. I’ve got to put these guys from different worlds together, right?” Pearl said. "I’ve got guys from Chicago, Detroit … I’m talking about the ‘hood! And I’ve got guys from Grainger County, where they wear the hood.’’
Oopsie Brucie.
Ogling Erin Andrews and now this
You many not like Women’s b-ball but the male coaches at Tennessee could learn a lot from Pat Summit and how to behave in a proper manner.
I don’t know how to respond to that.
On the first point, of course I have. But part of me feels that maintaining a high profile at charity events is part of his job (as his job involves recruiting and thus being in the public eye.) On that point, I have never been drunk and said stupid things while on the job.
Perhaps you took exception to my calling a person an idiot for making a human mistake. But calling a player a Klansmen while attending a charity event (presumably) in the south is pretty stupid. You basically just pissed off your donor base (as I’m sure they don’t like being called racists just because of where they live) and you’ve announced to potential recruits that some of your players grew up in neighborhoods where they still have the Ku Klux Klan. Yes, I think that is pretty stupid.
by Michael White on Sep 25, 2009 2:46 PM PDT up reply actions
Good points
but I don’t think Klan jokes are off limits these days. He may not have said it right but he is right in saying that he’s got players from incredibly diverse cultures that he has to mesh together in a team. Someone from Detroit and Tennessee might as well be from India and Pakistan until they get to know each other.
Ya, I mean I don’t want to pretend like I’m perfect. And calling someone names for making a mistake is juvenile on my part…..
by Michael White on Sep 25, 2009 3:02 PM PDT up reply actions
I’m feeling Fridayish as well. I carried on a debate way too long on CN for no point at all other than to pass the time.
by Michael White on Sep 25, 2009 3:09 PM PDT up reply actions
That was my season ticket partner
who came up the marketing idea. Most of those photo’s were taken from our seats. Hope you can catch a game with me sometime this year.
That would be awesome. I don’t remember that guy from the photo when you gave me your tickets last season. The only people I remember were 2 guys who pretty much screamed at Dunleavy the entire game. They were behind us in your section. When Dunleavy got tossed those guys erupted in applause; applause that was otherwise reserved for cheering for Shaun Livingston that night….
by Michael White on Sep 25, 2009 3:13 PM PDT up reply actions
2) I had a really interesting chat the other day with Dodgers trainer Stan Conte, who is at the cutting edge of understanding and preventing injuries and is a big believer in using data as part of that process. Conte told me his research confirmed that there is validity to the so-called Verducci Effect, based on a rule of thumb I have advanced for years that pitchers are more prone to injury and regression if their innings workload takes a big jump before the age of 25. His research showed that once pitchers get outside that age window, they are less vulnerable to the effects of increased work. “It may just be Darwinism at that point,” he said, “that the strongest survive.”
But Conte is taking the research to another level. He has begun researching what factors within the under-25 age group present a greater risk. He first looked at body mass index, based on listed heights and weights, but found no conclusive link to BMI — that is, the size of the pitcher didn’t matter as a risk factor. Now he is taking a look at pitch counts rather than innings as the line of demarcation.
Conte also noted that next year MLB will institute a streamlined, centralized system for reporting injuries. It is Conte’s wish, and a smart idea at that, that a database be compiled of those reported injuries to learn more about preventing and predicting injuries. Do pitchers who throw sliders suffer more elbow injuries? What’s the recovery rate for pitchers who undergo shoulder procedures? Do pitchers drafted out of college present a greater injury risk than those drafted out of high school? Conte is on to something, but baseball needs to think collegially in this matter, which has never been its strong suit.
Read more: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/tom_verducci/09/25/world.series/index.html?eref=writers#ixzz0S9lrfVeS
If I was a owner of a team
I’d rather compile that data myself and not share it with anyone. It would not be in the best interest of the kids who play the game but it would give me a competitive advantage.
Contrary to popular belief
that was not written by Billy Beane so no, I have no problem with it being published. If I was Billy Bean I would have been unhappy to see the book published since it gave away some of the idea’s behind how he runs his business and has made him a target.
I'm just glad they gutted the idea of making a movie
how incredibly boring that movie would have been unless they hollywooded it up so much that it would have had no relationship to the book much like the Bourne Identity where the only thing related to book was that he had amnesia.
I could have done a better version
with the final scene where Lew screams “just trade them, trade them all!” as Billy breaks down weeping… long, slow pan of empty condos in fremont as ‘the way we were’ plays… final shot: Jeremy Brown eats a dog under the fluorescent lights at a Casper’s on telegraph..
by stillnotah8er on Sep 25, 2009 3:11 PM PDT up reply actions
I highly recommend the book. That book and reading Fire Joe Morgan got me interested in advanced statistics.
by Michael White on Sep 25, 2009 3:14 PM PDT up reply actions
I’ve always had an interest in reading it, but I have so many books to read for school that I’m just going to hold it off till Winter break.
it's a quick read
all of the michael lewis classics can be dusted in a weekend for a fast reader
by stillnotah8er on Sep 25, 2009 3:22 PM PDT up reply actions
yeah, though i held off on it
until I had seen it play out in real life… saw many A’s games in that era
by stillnotah8er on Sep 25, 2009 3:14 PM PDT up reply actions
With the season almost over
it does seem like Matt Kemp not making the all-star team was one hell of an omission. Maybe the last time it happens for a while.
Manuel didn't add Victorino.
You have Bran Torino to thank for that.
by Michael White on Sep 25, 2009 2:47 PM PDT up reply actions
Team Runs Scored and Team Runs Allowed
Are the most relevant stats just short of Ws and Ls.
Team stats that closely correlate are ABSOLUTELY relevant.
How do you think you win games if not scoring more runs than you opponent? The objective of the game isn’t to hit the most doubles, home runs, get walks, or allow the fewest baserunners. The objective is to win in case you were wondering
That would be an interesting thread
if everyone just out of thin out voiced a quick diatribe about something that bugs them in baseball or True Blue. Like Adam Carola and sneaker shoelaces.
never say never
I could him hitting 40 one day, and who knows, someday Pujols will slow down. Who are the main guys to worry about over the next five years:
Pujols
Howard
Werth:)
Upton
Reynolds
Gonzalez
Dunn
Stanton(Marlins)
Fielder
When he can win the
OBP, Slug%, SB% numbers we can celebrate but I’ll check with Paul Scott first to make sure those are approved stats to use. We may need to use VORP and EQA
Last time I checked
The Dodgers led the NL in EQA, the Yankees lead MLB (Dodgers are 2nd), Dodgers lead MLB for Pitchers VORP, they are 3rd in Hitters VORP.
Chuck Klein is the only man to win HR & SB crowns in the same year (1932).
Willie Mays came close a bunch of times (top 7 in both categories for 9 straight years, 1954-1962). The closest he came was 1955, when he led the NL with 51 HR and his 24 SB finished one lousy SB behind Bill Bruton.
by Eric Stephen on Sep 25, 2009 3:14 PM PDT up reply actions
I should add, I only counted post deadball era.
Ty Cobb in 1909 led in both with 9 HR and 76 SB
by Eric Stephen on Sep 25, 2009 3:15 PM PDT up reply actions
i would guess home was a bunch of those steals
wish we had a good home stealer in mlb now…
by stillnotah8er on Sep 25, 2009 3:18 PM PDT up reply actions
Only 3 of the 76 were steals of home.
Cobb stole home 54 times in his career.
by Eric Stephen on Sep 25, 2009 3:21 PM PDT up reply actions
That is only because
he didn’t care about stolen bases:)
I’ll have to see how close Bobby Bonds ever came to winning the triple crown of home runs, stolen bases, strikeouts. Such an interesting talent, still one of my favorite players to ever watch.
He was close in the three categories for a decade, but never came with 10 of the leader in all 3 categories in any one season.
by Eric Stephen on Sep 25, 2009 3:22 PM PDT up reply actions
In terms of ordinal ranking, here were his closest HR/SB/K triple crown years:
1973 NL – 5th/4th/1st
1977 AL – 2nd/3rd/2nd
Those were his two years where he finished in the top 5 in all three
by Eric Stephen on Sep 25, 2009 3:24 PM PDT up reply actions
The Dodgers should keep Kemp trade or get rid of loney and Martin and Ethier and get guys with heart
Ethier is having a great year but he doesn’t scare me neither does Martin and loney.Ethier just still seems to be flaky. Do the Dodgers go over the scouting reports of the opposing teams pitching staffs ?I would love to see the stats on martin and Ethier and what there averages are after they have taken the first two pitches.Martin and Ethier and Loney they just don’t seem to be in the game.It seems most of Ethiers homers have come because the other pticher made a mistake in a deep count.How many times did the dodgers have the bases loaded with Washington and Either and Martin choaked.Either and Loney and marttin either need go over the opposing teams pitchers patterns in greater detail or go find a team that doesn’t care about winning.If you know the pattern of a pitcher you have seen all year and you are striking out alot against him either you haven’t made adjustments or you are making a subpar pitcher look like Sandy Koufax.
1) Welcome to the blog
2) You have won the part of the Scarecrow in our rendition of "Wizard of Oz"
by Eric Stephen on Sep 25, 2009 7:57 PM PDT up reply actions
Welcome Hedy
Ethier has seen an average of 3 1/3 pitches in his HR ABs, so your "deep count" theory is incorrect.
Martin with the bases loaded this year: .313 / .333 / .500 / .833 – Not a choker.
by David Young on Sep 25, 2009 11:07 PM PDT up reply actions
Our pre game threads
are becoming the stuff that made DT so great back in the toaster days. Raising cain with my work which means I have to work later now.
Is there any rule against steel cleeting in the gnads?
If not that’s what I’m getting Loney for Xmas.
the dodgers don't have the heart to win
Championship teams put teams like Washington and Pirates away.The dodgers have to much immaturity to win.Ethier and Martin and Loney are prime Examples of that.The dodgers get two outs and then Padilla and Garland walk men after two outs.Kershaw and Billingsley are Young and not ready for a clutch play when it counts and either does Martin nor Ethier.This isn’t a torre thing this is a Dodger thing.The dodgers have always had this attitude of we deserve to win and hope the opposing teams choke so they don’t have to play up to their rivals.Whoever they play in the playoff will out play them.
The Dodgers are 6-3 against the Pirates and Nationals this year. Thanks for playing though.
by Eric Stephen on Sep 25, 2009 7:58 PM PDT up reply actions
Welcome Hedy
Kershaw and Billingsley are Young and not ready for a clutch play when it counts and either (sic) does (sic) Martin nor Ethier.
See Martin with the bases loaded above. You are incorrect.
Ethier’s six walk off hits, including two come-from-behind walk-off HRs are awfully, awfully clutch. You are incorrect.
The Dodgers have three more wins than anyone else in the NL. You are incorrect.
by David Young on Sep 25, 2009 11:08 PM PDT up reply actions
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