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Dodgers Simulation, September 26th

I used my simulator to simulate 50000 baseball games between the Dodgers and Pirates using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  For your viewing pleasure I have also listed a few other games of local interest.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran at 9:45PM)

 

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob AccuScore
LAN PIT R.Wolf vs P.Maholm LAN 61.98% 58.38% 60%
STL COL A.Wainwright vs U.Jimenez COL 55.95% 50.94% 48%
CHN SF T.Gorzelanny vs B.Zito SF 55.75% 56.16% 55%

 Skinny:  Simulator Fun Facts... The Dodgers are sure trying their hardest to make the final two weeks of the season as exciting as possible.  Vegas is giving the Dodgers an extra 3.5% win probability on friday's game.  The Dodgers really could use a win, as the magic number to clinch the division is still 4, and sewing up home field advantage throughout the NL playoffs would help out.  Vegas is scared to put out a line on the Rockies/Cardinals game due to Pujols tweaking his ankle a little bit.  But look for Vegas to make that game a toss up when the lines do come out.

 

 

Top 20 Most Likely Scores

1 PIT 3-2
2 PIT 4-3
3 PIT 2-1
4 LAN 3-2
5 LAN 2-1
6 LAN 4-3
7 LAN 4-2
8 LAN 3-1
9 PIT 5-4
10 LAN 5-2
11 LAN 5-3
12 LAN 4-1
13 LAN 5-4
14 PIT 4-2
15 PIT 3-1
16 LAN 5-1
17 PIT 1-0
18 PIT 4-1
19 LAN 6-2
20 PIT 5-3

 

Game Pitching Results

Pitcher WHIP FIP
R.Wolf 1.191 3.226
P.Maholm 1.340 3.669

 


Note: Keep in mind I did this simulation before knowing the actual starting lineups, so some of the players I used may not be starting.   Many of the "Players Most Likely To" stats depend on having the correct lineup.  The lineups  I used are listed below.  Chances are you won't see a big difference in win probability from having the lineup order slightly off.  Picking the correct starters is more important, especially if one of the better players is taking the day off.  But you still won't see a big change in win probability if the starter and backup are interchangeable.

Simulation Lineups
1 R.Furcal A.McCutchen
2 M.Kemp D.Young
3 A.Ethier G.Jones
4 M.Ramirez L.Milledge
5 C.Blake B.Moss
6 J.Loney A.LaRoche
7 R.Belliard J.Jarmillo
8 R.Martin L.Cruz
9 R.Wolf P.Maholm



0 recs  |  Comment 2 comments

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Interesting recurring theme on this road trip

Dodgers favored but most probable scores are opposition winning.

I’m sticking with “lots of ways LA can win, fewer ways bad opposition can win.”

by David Young on Sep 26, 2009 2:07 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Yes, that is correct for every game. Home team has the top 2 or 3 most likely scores if they are dogs and the most likely 4 or 5 scores if they are favored. Rules of baseball help home team win many one run games even if they are dogs.
vr, Xei

by Xeifrank on Sep 26, 2009 10:03 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

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2010 Dodger Payroll

Pos No Player 2010 Salary
C 55 Martin $5,050,000
1B 7 Loney $3,100,000
2B 33 DeWitt $410,000*
3B 23 Blake $6,000,000
SS 15 Furcal $8,500,000
LF 99 Manny $7,267,760
CF 27 Kemp $4,000,000
RF 16 Ethier $6,000,000

2B/3B 14 Carroll $1,350,000
2B/3B/1B 3 Belliard $825,000
C 12 Ausmus $850,000
OF 5 Johnson $800,000
SS 60 Hu $405,000*

SP 22 Kershaw $440,000
SP 58 Billingsley $3,850,000
SP 18 Kuroda $14,100,000
SP 44 Padilla $4,025,000
SP 50 Stults $405,000*

CL 51 Broxton $4,000,000
LHP 52 Sherrill $4,500,000
LHP 56 Kuo $950,000
RHP 67 Troncoso $425,000*
RHP 54 Belisario $425,000*
RHP 37 Haeger $425,000*
RHP 68 Monasterios $460,000*



Pierre $4,000,000


Andruw $3,600,000


Schmidt $2,000,000


Wolf $2,000,000


Hudson $1,440,000


Nomar $1,250,000


Ohman $200,000


Zerpa $35,000


Hoffmann ($50,000)

Others on 40-man roster (total: 39)
RHP 47 Wade
C 9 Ellis  
OF 75 Paul
OF 17 Repko $500,000
SS 87 DeJesus**  
RHP 64 Guerra**  
RHP 74 Jansen**  
LHP 59 Leach**
RHP 73 Link**  
C 71 May**  
RHP 31 McDonald**  
RHP 49 Schlichting**  
LHP 57 Elbert**  
OF 62 Robinson**  

Totals
$93,537,760
 
Red = arbitration
Asterisk (*) = estimated
** = currently in minor league camp
For more detailed information, click here.

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