Does Finishing Strong Matter In The Playoffs?
by Eric Stephen on Sep 29, 2009 10:50 AM PDT
in Dodgers History & Records
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PrintAfter a lackluster 3-4 road trip against the teams with the worst two records in baseball, things are undoubtedly a little more turbulent than we would like on the Dodger ride to the postseason. It is understandable to feel uneasy after the trip; if the Dodgers can't win four of seven against the Nationals and Pirates, how can they win four of seven, or three of five, against the best teams in the league, starting next week?
| Team | W-L | GB |
| Dodgers | 93-64 | --- |
| Phillies | 90-66 | 2½ |
| Cardinals | 90-66 | 2½ |
| Rockies | 88-68 | 4½ |
It is times like these when we must remember that the Dodgers still have a lot going for them:
- They are in the playoffs, no matter what
- The magic number for the division is one. Call me crazy, but I think it is highly probable that either the Dodgers will win one of their five games, or the Rockies will lose one of their six.
- The Dodgers still have a 2½-game lead over both the Cardinals and the Phillies for the best record in the National League, so they are in good shape to secure home field advantage in the first two rounds of the playoffs
- Did I mention the Dodgers have clinched a playoff spot?
Ideally, we would all like the Dodgers to win the rest of their games, riding a wave of success into the postseason, where they will use that momentum to propel them to October (and hopefully, November) success. However, does it really matter how the Dodgers play this week? Will it have any effect on how they play when it really counts, starting next week?
The answer: I don't know, and neither do you.
Thanks to BHSportsGuy for this note, but here are the last two times the Dodgers made the postseason, and how they finished the regular season during those years:
- In 2006, the Dodgers won their last seven games, six on the road, and finished 9-1 in their last 10 games. Then they got swept by the Mets
- In 2008, the Dodgers finished just 4-5 in their last nine games, all at home. Then they swept the Cubs, who had the best record in the National League
I went back to take a look at all the playoff series since the advent of divisional play. After the jump, we will delve into the data.
The current playoff format has been in place since 1994. However, as you may remember, there were no playoffs in 1994, thanks to the most bitter and prolonged labor discord between players and owners in baseball history. So, for our purposes, the current playoff format -- three division winners plus a wild card in each league -- has been in place for 14 seasons, from 1995-2008. That yields 56 first round playoff series, four per season.
In 1995 and 1996, the home field advantage in the first round was a little screwy. If a team had home field advantage, it would play the first two games on the road, followed by three at home. That hardly seems like an advantage to me. The Dodgers made the playoffs both of those seasons, against the Reds and Braves. The Dodgers didn't have home field advantage in either year, yet failed to capitalize, losing both home games before heading on the road to be swept away one game later in each series. So, for our purposes, we will use the home field advantage stats for the first round from 1997-2008, a 12-year period.
I took a look at the last 14 years of the current playoff format, and compared first round opponents using a few factors:
- Home-field advantage (again, using only the last 12 years)
- Regular season win-loss record
- Record in last 10 regular season games
- Record in last 20 regular season games
- Record in last 30 regular season games
In some cases, teams had the same record in one of the last four categories, so in that category that series was not counted. Still, the results were interesting. Here are the first round playoff results based on these factors:
- Teams with home field advantage won 24 of 48 1st round series (50.0%)
- Teams with the better regular season record won 26 of 54 1st round series (48.1%)
- Teams with the better record in the final 10 games won 21 of 46 1st round series (45.7%)
- Teams with the better record in the final 20 games won 22 of 46 1st round series (47.8%)
- Teams with the better record in the final 30 games won 27 of 49 1st round series (55.1%)
I don't see a lot of advantage there in any category. Perhaps in the final 30 games, that may lead to postseason success, but it doesn't appear to be an overwhelming advantage. If it is an advantage, the Dodgers look pretty good in that regard. Here are the National League playoff hopefuls, along with their record over their final 30 games:
| Team | W-L |
| Braves | 20-10 |
| Dodgers | 18-12 |
| Cardinals | 18-12 |
| Rockies | 16-14 |
| Phillies | 16-14 |
Here are the league championship series results based on these factors:
- Teams with home field advantage won 15 of 28 league championship series (53.6%)
- Teams with the better regular season record won 16 of 27 league championship series (59.3%)
- Teams with the better record in the final 10 games won 11 of 20 league championship series (55.0%)
- Teams with the better record in the final 20 games won 12 of 25 league championship series (48.0%)
- Teams with the better record in the final 30 games won 9 of 24 league championship series (37.5%)
Again, it doesn't appear that any kind of strong finish yields a significant advantage. Maybe regular season record is important in the league championship series, but last I checked the Dodgers in fact have the best record in the National League.
It would be great if the Dodgers perform well over the final week of the season. I would like to lock up the division, secure the best record in the league, and go into the playoffs on a high note. Who wouldn't? However, it seems to me that it won't matter as much how the Dodgers play this week, but rather how they play next week and beyond will determine their fate more than anything.
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Great stuff
but I still think we’d have swept the Met’s if Jeff Kent knew how read a fly ball to the deep right corner in right field. Our Mo Mo died at the feet of Paul La Duca.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
Its crazy how key plays can swing a series, with Loney’s slam of course being the positive one for the Dodgers, last year.
by Eric Stephen on Sep 28, 2009 8:43 PM PDT up reply actions
well despite shane victorino for being a dodger killer in that series
i applaud him for telling furcal to keep his head up after making 3 errors in game 5 i think
"That is not how you play the game!!!" -Jack in the Box
Yeah, that was classy
I remember that, was a nice thing to do.
As far as finishing strong, I think it matters if you’re a strong team in the first place. A good team finishing strong will be in good shape. A mediocre team that finishes strong is just going to get to the Series and fold. Colorado in 2007 comes to mind … But, maybe it was just that long layoff they had before the Series. They were playing so well, they swept both the NLCS and the DS.
So, maybe you want a middling level of success … :)
by TopDeckTrueBlue on Sep 29, 2009 12:37 PM PDT up reply actions
who ever was the dodgers 3rd base coach at the time shoulda gotten fired...
"That is not how you play the game!!!" -Jack in the Box
I believe that was Rich “The Windmill” Donnelly.
by Eric Stephen on Sep 28, 2009 11:54 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
That is a sweet photo. Horrible result, but sweet photo.
by Eric Stephen on Sep 29, 2009 8:28 AM PDT up reply actions
Lol
The magic number for the division is one. Call me crazy, but I think it is highly probable that either the Dodgers will win one of their five games, or the Rockies will lose one of their six.
This should make destractosomething quiet about his "momentum" argument
Good stuff Eric, now mail this to the fools at ESPN and others before they engage us in their blasphemy.
the only drama there
is whether or not they’ll even win one vs the bosox.
by stillnotah8er on Sep 28, 2009 9:30 PM PDT up reply actions
well if its any comfort
the 2000 yankees played like crap in september
finishing with only 87 wins but they won it all
"That is not how you play the game!!!" -Jack in the Box
First I see
Alan Thicke was a guest at Lamar’s wedding and now thanks to Diamond, I see Casey Blake rents Alan Thicke’s house.
Is Kirk Cameron next?
Wow
Not only are the last 10 games meaningless,
the entire regular season is meaningless.
Luck and pitching consistency probably have a lot to do with success.
Well, I wouldn't go that far
Baseball still has by far the lowest number of participants in their playoffs (8) so you still need to play pretty well over the course of the season to get into the playoffs.
However once the playoffs start, then it really doesn’t matter all that much how you did in the regular season.
But if you ask the 1998 Yankees, they would have a different answer.
by Eric Stephen on Sep 28, 2009 9:50 PM PDT up reply actions
In terms of guaranteeing playoff success
Absolutely but it remains the most difficult of all the 4 major sports because it is such a daily grind for 6 months.
Yeah,
But is shows that those on the bottom of the eight have just about as good of a shot as those on the top of the 8.
Kind of seems more fair the old way of winning the pennant through the coarse of the entire season and then just having the World Series.
by Dodger Dude on Sep 28, 2009 10:13 PM PDT up reply actions
tv money rules the world
just be happy it isn’t the nhl or nba, where the regular season is a complete joke (and an endless one at that)
by stillnotah8er on Sep 28, 2009 10:14 PM PDT up reply actions
There is a segment of the population
Who will probably want that type of announcing style when Vin leaves.
I can't believe that.
At least the Dodgers wouldn’t do that since they replaced Ross Porter with Charlie Steiner. And they decided that the road TV crew are two non-discripte guys who are non rah rah guys. (Collins and Lyons.)
I can see how a guy like Hawk Harrelson might be popular? But Rex Hudler?
He can’t even string two words together to make a sentence.
I actually like Rex
My like of announcers has more to with their on air personality. When watching the game I can basically see what is going on. Having someone on air like Rex who is fun to listen to makes it more captivating for me.
by Ian Capilouto on Sep 29, 2009 8:54 AM PDT up reply actions
i cant believe its not butter!
sorry it was mandatory to say that..
"That is not how you play the game!!!" -Jack in the Box
speaking of brainfarts
personally, I doubt the tigers are going anywhere (and may not even win the central), and I’m 90% confident Weaver won’t be batting… but there is a chance we could recreate one of the greatest brainfarts of modern WS history:
even for a bosox hater
that’s still just sad. but my point was that we could have a Weaver v Verlander matchup (though I’d write 500-1 against it).
by stillnotah8er on Sep 28, 2009 10:01 PM PDT up reply actions
also a powerful reminder
of why Thome isn’t playing 1b
by stillnotah8er on Sep 28, 2009 10:02 PM PDT up reply actions
A Martinez is such a jackass
Listening to 710, and you could hear him grinning from ear to ear when he suggested this weekend’s series with the Rox might mean something
"Who would win: Coach Ditka versus a hurricane? The name of the hurricane is Hurricane Ditka"
by Mr. LA Sports Fan on Sep 28, 2009 10:00 PM PDT reply actions
Well it could still have meaning re
Home Field Advantage and the Wild Card spot.
by bhsportsguy on Sep 28, 2009 10:10 PM PDT up reply actions
I don't think that's what he meant
"Who would win: Coach Ditka versus a hurricane? The name of the hurricane is Hurricane Ditka"
by Mr. LA Sports Fan on Sep 28, 2009 10:11 PM PDT up reply actions
Why is he so bitter?
Did he get fired from the Dodgers? Is his bitterness just a schtick? Seems like the other radio hosts kind of prod him along in his Dodger bitterness.
vr, Xei
He used to do the trivia question in stadium, and I believe was involved in the postgame show to some capacity. Almost a Suchon-lite role.
by Eric Stephen on Sep 29, 2009 11:41 AM PDT up reply actions
It's a mental disorder
I heard A Martinez went to Canada and then developed neurosis because he kept thinking that all those Canadians would finish their sentences by saying his first name. Even when they weren’t talking to him…
2009-10 LA Kings Hockey: Where Smyt Happens!!
by DodgerBlueBalls on Sep 29, 2009 12:33 PM PDT up reply actions
It's not even an original combination
A Martinez, the actor. (I remember him from that John Wayne movie, The Cowboys.)
The radio A should have at least picked a business name that allowed him the outside chance of getting into a TV show or movie as a sportcaster – remember all those appearances by “Silver-Tipped” Stu Nahan? – but he can’t get credited as “A Martinez”.
His bitterness is just a schtick
Posts a few blogs about the Dodgers in his blog. Would want a title before he dies, yahtee yah…
the dodgers arent the only playoff bound team thats kinda strugglin
Dodgers 5-5
Philly 4-6
Cards 5-5
Rockies 6-4
Braves 8-2* (theyre on the outside)
"That is not how you play the game!!!" -Jack in the Box
i don't know if charlie has any good ideas in terms of Lidge
but that seems like the only ‘code red’ amongst the contenders
by stillnotah8er on Sep 28, 2009 10:09 PM PDT up reply actions
The entire bullpen is a question mark
I heard Brett Myers’ name come up at one point.
"Who would win: Coach Ditka versus a hurricane? The name of the hurricane is Hurricane Ditka"
by Mr. LA Sports Fan on Sep 28, 2009 10:12 PM PDT up reply actions
House Money Limping into the post-season.
I can see how the last 10 would be completely irrelevant even if it were relevant (best players only playing for teams that have to still clinch).
by Dodger Dude on Sep 28, 2009 10:17 PM PDT up reply actions
I noted on DT
That in the previous 9 seasons 2000-2008, only once had the NL Wild Card race been decided before the final weekend and that was in 2000 when it was clinched on the last Wednesday of the regular season.
The most
I can hope for is that everybody is healthy and strong and ready to play. That is the main advantage going into the post. Hot or cold, maybe it matters, but what I really want is for Manny, Blake, Kershaw, Belliard, Hudson to be ready roll.
Fuckin A'
I am ready for some 7 o’clock California evening baseball. Enough of this East Coast 4 in the afternoon, 10 in the morning stuff. It is going to be just me, some beer, some dollar tacos, and Vin in San Diego. Time for the Dodgers to gitter’ done tonight and taste that sweet champagne.
Neither a lofty degree of intelligence nor imagination nor both together go to the making of genius. Love, love, love, that is the soul of genius.
Wolfgang Amadeus Mozart
Its media day, so they’re getting all the taped stuff out of the way.
by Eric Stephen on Sep 29, 2009 11:42 AM PDT up reply actions
That's a cool pic
Wouldn’t Jordan be ecstatic if we saw him in that pose with a White Sox jersey IF he hadn’t been crappy for the Barons?
I can't forget that he wore a Yankees cap
to the Dodgers game a few years ago. Jack Nicholson went down on the cool meter for me when he did the same thing.
Neither a lofty degree of intelligence nor imagination nor both together go to the making of genius. Love, love, love, that is the soul of genius.
Wolfgang Amadeus Mozart
by Ian Capilouto on Sep 29, 2009 11:42 AM PDT up reply actions
Jack Nicholson also wears a Microsoft cap.
by Eric Stephen on Sep 29, 2009 11:44 AM PDT up reply actions
He supports all that is wrong with the world.
Neither a lofty degree of intelligence nor imagination nor both together go to the making of genius. Love, love, love, that is the soul of genius.
Wolfgang Amadeus Mozart
by Ian Capilouto on Sep 29, 2009 11:45 AM PDT up reply actions
He wears what they tell him to wear for cross promotion
He roots for who his wife tells him to root for.
by meercatjohn on Sep 29, 2009 11:51 AM PDT up reply actions
Kobe was actually rooting for the angels
when they had that magical year in 2002
i remember him having a rally monkey or something
"That is not how you play the game!!!" -Jack in the Box
Keep us updated. Exciting series it will be.
Neither a lofty degree of intelligence nor imagination nor both together go to the making of genius. Love, love, love, that is the soul of genius.
Wolfgang Amadeus Mozart
by Ian Capilouto on Sep 29, 2009 11:45 AM PDT up reply actions
Two wild pitches and a single make it 2-1 Twins
by Eric Stephen on Sep 29, 2009 11:47 AM PDT up reply actions
Thanks!
Neither a lofty degree of intelligence nor imagination nor both together go to the making of genius. Love, love, love, that is the soul of genius.
Wolfgang Amadeus Mozart
by Ian Capilouto on Sep 29, 2009 11:48 AM PDT up reply actions
A Delmon sac fly makes it 3-1.
Man, what happened to him?
by Eric Stephen on Sep 29, 2009 11:51 AM PDT up reply actions
.271/.296/.399 from a corner outfielder. He just turned 24, but is he done? Maybe its too early to give up on him, but what a disappointment he has been. He was so highly touted.
Maybe Paul Oberjuerge should write a column about him. :)
by Eric Stephen on Sep 29, 2009 11:54 AM PDT up reply actions
He may be a late bloomer.
Sometimes it just takes some time and the right atmosphere. Big Papi was just a line drive hitter when he was with the Twins and look what happened to him.
Neither a lofty degree of intelligence nor imagination nor both together go to the making of genius. Love, love, love, that is the soul of genius.
Wolfgang Amadeus Mozart
by Ian Capilouto on Sep 29, 2009 11:55 AM PDT up reply actions
Yeah, maybe a change of scenery will do him good.
by Eric Stephen on Sep 29, 2009 11:56 AM PDT up reply actions
I mean
what I said was kind of just a off hand statement, but I have heard that the way the Twins ask their players to approach the plate may not work for certain types of hitters.
Neither a lofty degree of intelligence nor imagination nor both together go to the making of genius. Love, love, love, that is the soul of genius.
Wolfgang Amadeus Mozart
by Ian Capilouto on Sep 29, 2009 11:59 AM PDT up reply actions
He's shown some life in Sept
304 .329 .464 .793
He reminds me of Beltre, someone who showed patience and power very early in his career and then just lost the patience.
by meercatjohn on Sep 29, 2009 11:57 AM PDT up reply actions
This is grand
2 teams competing for a playoff spot. It can’t get better than that. Though I wouldn’t think any of them would go past the Yankees.
Nobody thought the Tigers would beat the Yankees in 2006 either. 4 games later...
by Michael White on Sep 29, 2009 11:49 AM PDT up reply actions
Nobody?
Because the media adores the Yankees. Yankees pitching sucked that season and that costed them the playoffs.
Well of course not nobody, I was generalizing :)
by Michael White on Sep 29, 2009 11:55 AM PDT up reply actions
Two teams fighting for the right
to be crushed a week from today. Normally I’m a Twin fan but I’m rooting the Tigers since the Twins don’t really have a shot while the Tigers if things break right could make a series of it. Carlos Guillen is finally heating up after a terrible injury ravaged season.
by meercatjohn on Sep 29, 2009 11:49 AM PDT up reply actions
A lot of relatives are from Michigan and Cecil Fielder was one of my favorite players
as a kid. I got to see a few games at old Tiger Stadium. Go Tigers!
Neither a lofty degree of intelligence nor imagination nor both together go to the making of genius. Love, love, love, that is the soul of genius.
Wolfgang Amadeus Mozart
by Ian Capilouto on Sep 29, 2009 11:52 AM PDT up reply actions
I always wanted the Dodgers and Tigers to play in the WS so I could see them play in Tiger Stadium (on TV).
by Eric Stephen on Sep 29, 2009 11:54 AM PDT up reply actions
That stadium ruled.
I saw Cecil leg out a triple against the Yankees way back when. My uncle was a Tiger scout so we got sweet tickets, a choice between a MIckey Tettleton or Lou Whitaker bat, and a plastic helmet. My older cousin screwed me for the Sweet Lou bat, but he lost it, and I still have Mickey’s bat.
Neither a lofty degree of intelligence nor imagination nor both together go to the making of genius. Love, love, love, that is the soul of genius.
Wolfgang Amadeus Mozart
by Ian Capilouto on Sep 29, 2009 11:57 AM PDT up reply actions
I used to hit a ball of tape in my backyard playing pretend baseball games, and the trees in the back were a close approximation of the short porch overhang at Tiger Stadium.
I dominated those games!
by Eric Stephen on Sep 29, 2009 12:00 PM PDT up reply actions
Ahh, love those glorious moments of backyard baseball heroics.
I feel lucky to have watched some games there and watched my uncles drink beer at the Pub across the street.
Neither a lofty degree of intelligence nor imagination nor both together go to the making of genius. Love, love, love, that is the soul of genius.
Wolfgang Amadeus Mozart
by Ian Capilouto on Sep 29, 2009 12:04 PM PDT up reply actions
Loved the old stadium
Always remember Reggie mashing the All-Star game home run back when the all-star game was something to watch.
by meercatjohn on Sep 29, 2009 11:58 AM PDT up reply actions
My father was a Tiger fan
so I’ve always supported the Tigers to some degree.
by Michael White on Sep 29, 2009 11:55 AM PDT up reply actions
Detroit has 2 power arms
that could make things difficult for New York.
That sequence in game 2 of the 2006 ALDS when Verlander struck out A Rod on 3 pitches was awesome and quite memorable
by Michael White on Sep 29, 2009 11:54 AM PDT up reply actions
And those 2 power arms did shut down the Yanks
none of them allowed more than 2 runs a game, which includes Yankee stadium.
I think
the Tigers have a shot at beating the Yankees. They aren’t afraid.
Neither a lofty degree of intelligence nor imagination nor both together go to the making of genius. Love, love, love, that is the soul of genius.
Wolfgang Amadeus Mozart
by Ian Capilouto on Sep 29, 2009 12:05 PM PDT up reply actions
Mistake on my part
Polanco is up now. Granderson hit the leadoff HR
by Eric Stephen on Sep 29, 2009 11:57 AM PDT up reply actions
Plus two more games the next two days! Awesome.
by Eric Stephen on Sep 29, 2009 12:18 PM PDT up reply actions
For any USC fans
or just fans of being able to talk…
TheBigLead RT @BFeldmanESPN Trauma director said Stafon Johnson’s vocal chord was “destroyed, fractured and displaced”
Ouch.
Sounds extremely painful
If we hit that bullseye, the rest of the dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate.
I heard today though,
that they were able to basically repair the vocal chords. Man, what a tough break for him. I hope he can resume his career at some point.
Neither a lofty degree of intelligence nor imagination nor both together go to the making of genius. Love, love, love, that is the soul of genius.
Wolfgang Amadeus Mozart
by Ian Capilouto on Sep 29, 2009 12:16 PM PDT up reply actions
I don't know if the repair just meant that he will live, or if they
were able to keep him from dying.
Neither a lofty degree of intelligence nor imagination nor both together go to the making of genius. Love, love, love, that is the soul of genius.
Wolfgang Amadeus Mozart
by Ian Capilouto on Sep 29, 2009 12:17 PM PDT up reply actions
Some good news
LAMase #USC Coach Carroll press conf: “Stafon Johnson awake. Doctors expect him to play football again, but don’t know when.”
by Eric Stephen on Sep 29, 2009 12:18 PM PDT up reply actions
I'd want a different spotter next time I was lifting
Hope he can make a full recovery
by meercatjohn on Sep 29, 2009 12:48 PM PDT up reply actions
That sounds absolutely brutal
My neck hurts reading about it. Literally.
Now I feel like going to a game and screaming since I can. How sad.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Sep 29, 2009 12:53 PM PDT up reply actions
the first thing any kid hears in a weight room
when he goes to one around 13 or so is “Never ever bench without a spotter”.
I know nothing of the context of this, but it sounds like a reminder along those lines.
by stillnotah8er on Sep 29, 2009 1:11 PM PDT up reply actions
if the job entailed
spotting well over 200 lbs, not surprising. also sounds like a reminder of why it is better to go pro too early instead of too late.
by stillnotah8er on Sep 29, 2009 1:13 PM PDT up reply actions
The guilt that guy must be feeling
whether he could have done anything better or not.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Sep 29, 2009 1:46 PM PDT up reply actions
What a tragic way for his career to end if he can't.
Neither a lofty degree of intelligence nor imagination nor both together go to the making of genius. Love, love, love, that is the soul of genius. -Mozart
I just realized
of the eight teams currently in line for the postseason, only one of them has failed to reach the World Series this decade.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Sep 29, 2009 12:52 PM PDT reply actions
How about them Braves?
If we hit that bullseye, the rest of the dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate.
Oh they are a full 2.0 games back, donchaknow.
And they have to face Josh Johnson tonight, while the Rox get…Chris Narveson at home.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Sep 29, 2009 12:57 PM PDT up reply actions
But the Braves have an (corny) ace up their sleeves
The Atlanta Braves handed out “Believe” signs to their fans who came to Turner Field on Monday night.
If we hit that bullseye, the rest of the dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate.
Well that changes everything.
Though not even the Talking Chop manager is buying into it yet.
I’m very nervous. Please wrap up homefield so you can lay down and let us in the playoffs. You know you’d rather have the Rox in the playoffs than the Braves…
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Sep 29, 2009 1:05 PM PDT up reply actions
This is true
but still incomprehensible. It feels like two years since the Rockies won a series against the Dodgers.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Sep 29, 2009 1:44 PM PDT up reply actions
Recently every time the Dodger’s played the Rockies all i heard was about how the early season losses were meaningless and that these where the new and improved Rockies and despite that the Rockies still lost series although they where more competitive.
If we hit that bullseye, the rest of the dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate.
Indeed
Both of the series played with Tracy managing were exceptionally competitive and really could have gone either way. The Rockies will win 99% of games that Hammel throws a complete game, allowing one run and no walks.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Sep 29, 2009 1:59 PM PDT up reply actions
In a recent survey, 100% of me was angry with this comment.
But in a similar survey, 100% of me has no comeback. Yet.
by Eric Stephen on Sep 29, 2009 1:02 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Facts aren't below the belt are they?
The Twinkies might join you in that club soon though
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Sep 29, 2009 1:03 PM PDT up reply actions
Only one of those seven teams in the world series was swept in four games
If we hit that bullseye, the rest of the dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate.
by Sordid on Sep 29, 2009 1:12 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Not technically true
The Cardinals were swept in 2004. The fact they won two years later doesn’t mean they didn’t get swept.
Huh….the team returns as a wild card two years after getting swept in the Series to win it all. I like the ring of it…
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Sep 29, 2009 1:34 PM PDT up reply actions
Didn’t the Cards win the division in aught six?
by Eric Stephen on Sep 29, 2009 1:38 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Yeah yeah, you're right.
I just remembered they had the worst record of the NL playoff teams. This year, half the NL with match the Cards’ win total of 2006. They were a longshot, whatever slot they technically were
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Sep 29, 2009 1:41 PM PDT up reply actions
I don't even understand your statement
But any argument that includes great longevity will hurt teams that barely have their driver’s license.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Sep 29, 2009 1:36 PM PDT up reply actions
Oh I understand now.
0-for-1 isn’t so bad. I honestly wonder if a competitive team would have been field earlier in Colorado had Coors played more neutral. You better hope you make the Series to avoid knowing there would be kids legally drinking who were born after the last appearance :)
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Sep 29, 2009 1:40 PM PDT up reply actions
What irony.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Sep 29, 2009 1:43 PM PDT up reply actions
I wonder how one could have designed a stadium in Denver to be more neutral
Make the OF smaller, but with really tall walls all around. Still have some HRs flying out, but some get knocked down for doubles and alley-gappers stop being automatic triples? I guess there’s nothing that can be done to help pitchers have their breaking pitches break more like the norm.
make it like the old polo grounds
nothing a 500 ft CF wall can’t fix
by stillnotah8er on Sep 29, 2009 1:54 PM PDT up reply actions
The humidor really does help dramatically with a lot of that.
but it still leans towards home runs, and the outfield is so big that it allows plenty of tweeners as is. Pushing the fences back would neutralize home runs, sort of. It would probably spike inside-the-parkers and triples like nobody’s business.
I’ve come to the conclusion that the only way baseball in Denver could truly be neutral is to have it in a permanent dome, which would obviously be stupid with the natural mountain backdrop. Perhaps a clear dome. Call Matt Groening.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Sep 29, 2009 1:55 PM PDT up reply actions
My idea is to bring the fences in to a normal depth and make the walls higher, not Fenwayesque, but high. The huge OF is as much or more of a problem than the ball carrying in the high altitude.
This is plausible.
And the most accepted ideas outside of the humidor I’ve read before. I’m not sure what combination of increased height and decreased distance would yield a net neutral result, but I’m sure there is one. My only fear is that it would be so atypical that the game would still be just as different (like suddenly David Ortiz can play CF because he can just turn around and catch it off the wall).
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Sep 29, 2009 2:53 PM PDT up reply actions
The Polo Grounds was indeed pretty close to neutral, sometimes slightly favoring hitters, according to the baseball-reference.com park factors I scanned. But the Polo Grounds were also pretty darn close to sea level, so I think that configuration in Denver would still have similar issues to Coors today.
i've wondered
if mantle could have hit it out to the CF clubhouse – I assume that the old league structure meant he rarely played there
by stillnotah8er on Sep 29, 2009 2:34 PM PDT up reply actions
Higher infield grass
For years, Denver has cut their infield grass very short. I could never figure out why. You’d think they’d want to make it longer than average, to make it less likely grounders will get through for singles and doubles.
I think the 90s mets found that excessive grass
definitely affected their power numbers
by stillnotah8er on Sep 29, 2009 2:25 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
How about high OF grass?
Cut down the roll of the gappers. Slows the OFs also, not that one could notice with Brad Hawpe though.
Like the Marlins (2 rings), the D-Backs (1 ring) and Rays (more recent WS appearance) :)
by Eric Stephen on Sep 29, 2009 1:40 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Weird isn't it?
The Rays did it the right way, building up strength over time to sustainability. The Marlins and D-Backs essentially bought theirs at the price of killing their competitiveness for a couple years. I’d almost rather have it the Rockies’ way.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Sep 29, 2009 1:43 PM PDT up reply actions
That or have the best record in the NL for the final four months of the season
That seems to be the recipe
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Sep 29, 2009 1:45 PM PDT up reply actions
Until the Rockies clinch the wild card let’s not start proclaiming the “Rockie’s Way” as the answer
If we hit that bullseye, the rest of the dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate.
Agreed
I’m scurred
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Sep 29, 2009 1:56 PM PDT up reply actions
Forget about the $180,000 in incentives that Oh!Hudson could earn. Guillermo Mota is only three games finished from a $75,000 incentive!
Oh, the humanity.......
If we hit that bullseye, the rest of the dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate.
I wrote this last night. Same with the Oberjuerge piece only that just published this AM
by Eric Stephen on Sep 29, 2009 1:41 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
oh…gotcha…boss looking over your shoulder right now?
by KellyStephen on Sep 29, 2009 2:00 PM PDT up reply actions
Fewest Errors
Back in my Catfish Stew blogging days, I looked up a whole bunch of stats, and the best LDS predictor I could find was the team that committed fewer errors in the regular season. At the time I calculated it, fewer errors predicted the Division Series winner just under 67% of the time. This formula did not hold up in the LCS or World Series, though.
From the Dodgers’ (81 errors) perspective, it’s better to play the Cardinals (90 errors) or Braves (94 errors) than the Phillies (73 errors). The Rockies have 84.
AL: Yankees (83) should root for Detroit (86) to win the AL Central over Minnesota (70). Angels (81) and Red Sox (80) are practically tied.
Thanks Ken. Glad to have you comment here.
by Eric Stephen on Sep 29, 2009 2:10 PM PDT up reply actions
Sample size
I should add that I think that this stat is more likely a sample size blip than anything significant. But if you’re going to play this predict-the-LDS game, might as well use a stat that has worked, just in case there’s something more to it than just sample size.
My best LDS predictor was a checklist
Blond hair, blue eyes, clean cut, white short-sleeve shirt with tie, riding bicycle. All checked? LDS! :)
by David Young on Sep 29, 2009 2:22 PM PDT up reply actions 3 recs
Excellent!
There have been some awesome comments today.
by Eric Stephen on Sep 29, 2009 2:24 PM PDT up reply actions
One of these. I didn’t know there was such a niche market!
by David Young on Sep 29, 2009 2:33 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
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