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Around SBN: 2011 In Extreme Home Runs

MLB Traderumors has a pretty cool spreadsheet up with projected Elias rankings for all of this offseason's free agents.The projections are reverse-engineered by Eddie Bajek of Detroit Tigers Thoughts. Teams get compensatory picks in the next year's First Year Player Draft if they offer arbitration to Type A or Type B free agents and they subsequently sign with another team.

The Dodgers should have 3 Type A free agents this offseason in Manny Ramirez, Orlando Hudson, and Randy Wolf. Of course Manny would have to opt out of his contract and the Dodgers cannot offer him arbitration (because of a clause in his contract) anyways.

They should also have a plethora of Type B free agents, where Jon Garland, Vicente Padilla, Ronnie Belliard, Guillermo Mota, and Will Ohman all look likely to qualify. Jim Thome is also ranked just outside of Type B status. However, thit's questionable whether or not the Dodgers would offer arbitration to most of these players.

While there's still a lot to be decided in the offseason, it's possible if things pan out the right way that the Dodgers end up with quite a few compensatory picks in next year's draft.

over 2 years ago Tiny Brendan Scolari 26 comments 0 recs  | 

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Hudson Is Probably Gone

If he’s an ‘A’ rated player he’s worth virtually 2 first round draft picks. That’s huge, especially if K.C. or San Diego were to sign him. He’s a good player but his drop off after the all star break was enough to explore other options.

Check out my article about the Dodger Dugout Club.

by alcor805 on Sep 29, 2009 12:16 AM PDT reply actions  

The top 15 draft picks are not subject to this rule. For instance, if a team with the 7th pick signs O-Dog, the Dodgers would get their 2nd round pick instead of 1st. They still get the supplemental no matter what.

Our best bet is if the team with the #16 pick signs O-Dog.

Now, if a team signs multiple Type As, this is where it gets tricky because the FAs get ranked and instead of a 1st round pick we could get a 3rd rounder (think of the Yankees last year).

by Eric Stephen on Sep 29, 2009 5:43 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions  

Exactly.

Even a second or third rounder would be good compensation for most of these guys though, and you always get a supplemental 1st for the Type B’s.

by Brendan Scolari on Sep 29, 2009 11:44 AM PDT up reply actions  

It would actually be a bad thing if a really crappy team like KC signed him cause the top 15 picks are protected so the Dodgers would actually get that teams second round pick instead I think. I’m pretty pumped for this, the Dodgers could potentially have like 9 of the first 50 picks.

by KSeal on Sep 29, 2009 1:16 AM PDT reply actions  

But only a protected team

would want to sign Hudson since they don’t lose any picks. I have a hard time picturing a non – protected team not only giving Hudson a multi – year deal but also giving up those draft picks. You’d have to be a blind GM to not notice how he protects his left wrist and how easily he hurts it. Orlando could easily accept arbitration next year once he and his agent scope the landscape and notice how many average FA 2nd baseman are on the market with only a few teams with money actually needing one. One you take the Sox and Yankee’s out of the equation you lose leverage with the rest of the league.

Wolf is another matter. Coming off his best season in a year in which good pitching is premium he should finally get the contract he wanted next year and have plenty of suitors.

I’d let Belliard walk since his 20% cut would still be more then I’d pay him. I would try to sign him as a free agent at a reduced cost.

I’d let Mota walk

I’d let Ohman walk

I’d let Padilla walk, if they want to give him another shot next year do it as a free agent not in arbitration where he can only take a 20% cut. Still amazing someone paid this guy $12million in 2009.

Say good bye to Ausmus, Loretta, and Castro

Garland will either get a buy out or have his option picked up but not arbitration or am I wrong on this?

by meercatjohn on Sep 29, 2009 8:04 AM PDT reply actions  

So basically

other then Wolf I don’t see any draft picks coming our way other then possible supplemental picks if Hudson declines arbitration and signs with a protected team.

by meercatjohn on Sep 29, 2009 8:07 AM PDT up reply actions  

I think if Garland declines his option (it is a mutual option) the Dodgers might still offer arbitration, since there is a strong chance he would decline (hence his opting out).

by Eric Stephen on Sep 29, 2009 8:08 AM PDT up reply actions  

I think you guys are generally right here
  • Mota, Ohman, and Padilla all make too much money to go to arb with, and it is unclear any are wanted back anyway.
  • Wolf is a gimme, because his accepting a one-year arb deal is highly unlikely and good for the Dodgers.
  • Belliard is arguable. Probably would have to work up his comps to get a well-reasoned conclusion. A 100 OPS+ 2B-3B might look decent to an arbiter.
  • Think Eric is right about Garland. He’s a big expensive for an innings-eating 4th/5th starter.
  • Agree with Phil that Wolf’s picks, if he isn’t signed here, are probably the only chickens we can count they hatch.

by David Young on Sep 29, 2009 11:13 AM PDT up reply actions  

Actuallly

since Arizona pays for any buyout of Garland, LA may want to opt out anyway, with that $2.5M being the price paid for Tony Abreu. If LA opts out, does Garland have a “offer no arb” clause?

Garland’s option for next year is $10M. Again, probably have to work comps to see what his arb might be like.

by David Young on Sep 29, 2009 11:17 AM PDT up reply actions  

I haven’t confirmed that, but it looks like the Dodgers can offer him arbitration he the option is declined.

by Eric Stephen on Sep 29, 2009 11:21 AM PDT up reply actions  

Belliard is only making $1.9 million this year. I don’t think he would win much more than that in arbitration. I would accept the risk and offer him arb anyway.

by Eric Stephen on Sep 29, 2009 8:10 AM PDT up reply actions  

You would be willing to pay him

1.9 in arbitration? That seems a bit much for a backup infielder. I wouldnt’ pay him anymore then what we paid Loretta this year. He is going to be 35, he’s to old to be a regular.

by meercatjohn on Sep 29, 2009 10:44 AM PDT up reply actions  

Yes, I would pay him that.

by Eric Stephen on Sep 29, 2009 10:49 AM PDT up reply actions  

Rolly Polly Love

Hey, I jumped your Playoff column back to the top page. Great stuff, needs to stay on top.

by meercatjohn on Sep 29, 2009 10:52 AM PDT up reply actions  

That should be on top, and his Matt Kemp defense should be #2.

Eric is like the sliced beef at Phillipe’s, hot and on a roll!

by David Young on Sep 29, 2009 10:54 AM PDT up reply actions  

Philippe’s sounds so good right now. I may have to hit it up Saturday.

by Eric Stephen on Sep 29, 2009 11:15 AM PDT up reply actions  

I guess I should rephrase.

I would be willing to offer arbitration to Belliard, in hopes of getting a supplemental pick if he leaves, and would be willing to accept the risk that he would accept arbitration to come back.

by Eric Stephen on Sep 29, 2009 11:14 AM PDT up reply actions  

Belliard is one year, seven months younger than Casey Blake! ~$2M seems high, but Ned loves his veteran depth.

Did you know that Roly-Poly was once traded straight up for Hector Luna?

July 30, 2006: Traded by the Cleveland Indians to the St. Louis Cardinals for Hector Luna.

by David Young on Sep 29, 2009 10:53 AM PDT up reply actions  

Keep Garland, Belliard, and maybe Padilla. But Weed (Mota), loretta, ausmus, thome and need to make way for some new blood. Wait not Ausmus, hescool, he can stay.

by Skunkburner on Sep 29, 2009 9:44 AM PDT via mobile reply actions  

Garland and Padilla are both type Bs?

Lol, wow, that could turn out pretty nicely for us if anyone actually wants to take a chance on them.

For type Bs, would we get Supplemental round picks or the teams 2nd round picks (or 2nd round supplemental)?

by Ivdown on Sep 29, 2009 4:48 PM PDT reply actions  

Also

Mota and Ohman are both type Bs. I can’t see the Dodgers, at all, giving arbitration offers to all 4 of Mota, Ohman, Padilla, and Garland, but I think at least 2 of them should get offers (which they will hopefully turn down).

by Ivdown on Sep 29, 2009 4:50 PM PDT up reply actions  

For arb purposes Padilla made ~$11M this year. The max cut in arb is 20%

If you give him arb and he accepts, he’s guaranteed no worse than $8.8M, which he would probably take. Doesn’t that sound like too much? No arb offer for Padilla.

Similarly Mota would be guaranteed no worse than about $1.8M, Ohman $1.1M. Too much? I think so.

by David Young on Sep 29, 2009 6:35 PM PDT up reply actions  

Just a supplemental pick for Type Bs.

by Eric Stephen on Sep 29, 2009 5:13 PM PDT up reply actions  

I have a lot of trouble believing Ohman's a type B

He’s a funny guy and all, but I don’t think that’s worth a draft pick or two!

As for the rest, I’d offer Wolf & Hudson decent arbitration, but probably not much else. I’m even inclined to let Wolf go outright, as the thought of a rotation with Bills, Kersh, Kuroda, McDonald and Elbert sounds like it COULD be great, and getting two draft picks for a 33 year old pitcher coming off a career year doesn’t sound so bad.

For the record, though, I hope that if the Dodgers did lose Hudson- and he’d better be a type A if that’s the case- they have a backup plan that does NOT include Dan Uggla, who is like a younger Jeff Kent with a lower batting average. That includes his clubhouse demeanor, too.

by sarcastro9 on Sep 29, 2009 5:42 PM PDT reply actions  

What do you base this on?

He’s a regular guest on Bubba the Love Sponge’s SiriusXM radio show, on Howard 101, and he seems like a delight.

by Seanny Rotten on Oct 11, 2009 12:13 PM PDT up reply actions  

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2012 Dodgers Payroll

Italics denote estimates
Pos No Player 2012 Salary
C 17 Ellis $500,000 team control
1B 7 Loney $6,375,000
2B 14 Ellis $2,500,000
3B 5 Uribe $8,000,000
SS 9 Gordon $485,000 team control
LF 21 Rivera $4,000,000
CF 27 Kemp $10,000,000
RF 16 Ethier $10,950,000

IF/OF 6 Hairston $2,250,000
OF 10 Gwynn $850,000
2B/3B 3 Kennedy $800,000
C 18 Treanor $850,000
IF 12 Sellers $485,000 team control

SP 22 Kershaw $6,000,000
SP 58 Billingsley $9,000,000
SP 29 Lilly $12,000,000
SP 37 Capuano $3,000,000
SP 44
Harang $3,000,000

CL 54 Guerra $485,000 team control
RHP 74
Jansen $500,000 team control
RHP 55 Guerrier $4,750,000
RHP Coffey $1,000,000
RHP 66 MacDougal $650,000
LHP 57 Elbert $485,000 team control
RHP 36
Hawksworth $500,000 team control

TJ 41 De La Rosa $485,000 team control



Manny $8,087,432 deferred


Andruw $3,375,000 deferred


Pierre $3,050,000 deferred
Furcal $3,000,000 deferred
Kuroda $2,000,000 deferred
Garland $1,500,000 option buyout
Blake $1,250,000 option buyout

Totals
$112,162,432

For more detailed information, click here.

Players on 40-man roster used as roster
fillers until moves are made.

Current 40-man roster count: 40
(not including Belisario)

2012 Non-Roster Invitees

No Player Age*
63 Jose Ascanio rhp
27
61 Alberto Castillo lhp
36
60 Matt Chico lhp
29
35 John Grabow lhp
33
59 Angel Guzman rhp
30
47 Wil Ledezma lhp
31
72 Shane Lindsay rhp
27
62 Fernando Nieve rhp 29
73 Scott Rice lhp 30
70 Will Savage rhp
27
71 Ryan Tucker rhp
25

30 Josh Bard c 34
82 Griff Erickson c 24
81 Matt Wallachc 26
67 Jeff Baisley 3b/1b 29
62 Luis Cruz ss/2b 28
33 Josh Fields 3b 29
64 Lance Zawadzki if 27
56 Cory Sullivan of 32

*Age on June 30, 2012

NRI count: 19

For more info, click here.


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