FanPost

Dodgers "Just Another Ho Hum Game" Simulation, September 29th

I used my simulator to simulate 50000 baseball games between the Dodgers and Padres using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores.  This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last.  Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.  For your viewing pleasure I have also listed a few other games of local interest.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran at 10:00PM)

 

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob AccuScore
LAN SD C.Billingsley vs C.Ramos LAN 59.68% 60.43% 49%
MIL COL C.Narveson vs J.Marquis COL 62.55% 58.92% 56%
HOU PHI W.Lopez vs J.Happ PHI 73.33% 65.20% 71%
FLA ATL J.Johnson vs T.Hudson ATL 54.13% 47.13% 45%
MIN DET N.Blackburn vs R.Porcello DET 54.75% 56.74% 51%
MIN DET B.Duensing vs J.Verlander DET 60.94%% 61.86% 61%

 Skinny:  Simulator Fun Facts...  The Dodgers just wanted to celebrate the division title in front of their home fans in San Diego, right?  Well, Vegas and my simulator are in pretty good agreement as to the odds of that happening.  Someone, please wake up the AccuScore operators, as they actually have the Padres as favorites to win tonight.  I mean, yeah... anything could happen, but C.Ramos favored over C.Billingsley???  I often look at the games where my simulator is a huge outlier to look for ways to improve my projections, but this blunder by AccuScore is rather embarrassing.  I was worried about my simulator picking the Marlins over the Braves, but then noticed that AccuScore had the Marlins as even bigger favorites to beat the Braves than me.  So, I am not sure what to think about these guys.  Anyways, back to the Dodgers game.  The Dodgers were favored heavier in each of the games against the Pirates and only the game vs the Nationals in which Padilla started were the Dodgers ever a sub 60% favorite to win on this road trip.

 

 

Top 20 Most Likely Scores

1 SD 3-2
2 SD 4-3
3 SD 2-1
4 LAN 3-2
5 LAN 4-3
6 LAN 2-1
7 LAN 3-1
8 LAN 4-2
9 SD 5-4
10 LAN 4-1
11 LAN 5-3
12 LAN 5-4
13 LAN 5-2
14 LAN 5-1
15 LAN 3-0
16 SD 3-1
17 SD 4-2
18 LAN 6-3
19 SD 1-0
20 LAN 2-0

 

Game Pitching Results

Pitcher WHIP FIP
C.Billingsley 1.264 3.17
C.Ramos 1.394 4.35

 


Note: Keep in mind I did this simulation before knowing the actual starting lineups, so some of the players I used may not be starting.   Many of the "Players Most Likely To" stats depend on having the correct lineup.  The lineups  I used are listed below.  Chances are you won't see a big difference in win probability from having the lineup order slightly off.  Picking the correct starters is more important, especially if one of the better players is taking the day off.  But you still won't see a big change in win probability if the starter and backup are interchangeable.

Simulation Lineups
1 R.Furcal T.Gwynn
2 M.Kemp D.Eckstein
3 A.Ethier A.Gonzalez
4 M.Ramirez C.Headley
5 J.Loney W.Venable
6 R.Belliard O.Salazar
7 R.Martin N.Hundley
8 O.Hudson E.Cabrera
9 C.Billingsley C.Ramos

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