True Blue LA: An SB Nation Community

Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Pro Quality. Fan Perspective.
Login-facebook
New Blog: Anonymous Eagle covering Marquette!

Dodgers Simulation, September 30th

I used my simulator to simulate 50000 baseball games between the Dodgers and Padres using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores.  This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last.  Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.  For your viewing pleasure I have also listed a few other games of local interest.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran at 1130PM)

 

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob AccuScore
LAN SD J.Garland vs C.Richard LAN 55.36% 50.48% 60%
MIL COL J.Suppan vs J.Hammel COL 64.97% 69.36% 69%
HOU PHI B.Moehler vs P.Martinez PHI 67.64% 60.07% 64%
FLA ATL R.Nolasco vs J.Vazquez ATL 65.56% 62.49% 60%
MIN DET C.Pavano vs E.Bonine MIN 53.04% 51.46% 59%

 Skinny:  Simulator Fun Facts...  Looks like my simulator is the latest entity to jump ship.  It's only giving the Dodgers slightly over a 50% chance to win wednesday's game.  It will be interesting to see where the Vegas lines and AccuScore come in.  Vegas obviously doesn't have the balls to post their lines until the morning.  My guess is that Vegas has the Dodgers as 55% faves and AccuScore is somewhere around the Simulator.  We'll see...  Vegas comes in about where I thought, but AccuScore today all of the sudden has the Dodgers as being Padre slayers after thinking Billingsley would lose to them yesterday.  Perhaps they are on to something???

 

 

Top 20 Most Likely Scores

1 SD 3-2
2 SD 4-3
3 SD 2-1
4 LAN 3-2
5 LAN 4-3
6 LAN 2-1
7 LAN 4-2
8 SD 5-4
9 SD 3-1
10 SD 4-2
11 LAN 3-1
12 LAN 5-4
13 LAN 5-3
14 LAN 4-1
15 SD 1-0
16 SD 4-1
17 SD 5-2
18 SD 6-5
19 SD 5-3
20 SD 2-0

 

Game Pitching Results

Pitcher WHIP FIP
J.Garland 1.289 3.818
C.Richard 1.357 3.963

 


Note: Keep in mind I did this simulation before knowing the actual starting lineups, so some of the players I used may not be starting.   Many of the "Players Most Likely To" stats depend on having the correct lineup.  The lineups  I used are listed below.  Chances are you won't see a big difference in win probability from having the lineup order slightly off.  Picking the correct starters is more important, especially if one of the better players is taking the day off.  But you still won't see a big change in win probability if the starter and backup are interchangeable.

Simulation Lineups
1 R.Furcal T.Gwynn
2 O.Hudson D.Eckstein
3 A.Ethier A.Gonzalez
4 M.Ramirez C.Headley
5 M.Kemp W.Venable
6 J.Loney K.Kouzmanoff
7 R.Martin N.Hundley
8 J.Castro E.Cabrera
9 J.Garland C.Richard

0 recs  |  Comment 1 comment

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Display:

70% Rox?

I already guaranteed they would loose.

34% chance of no bubbly tonight. Unless you use my math, then its 0%.

by Dodger Dude on Sep 30, 2009 2:53 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

A place for Dodger fans to congregate without spending $15 on parking.
Start posting about the Dodgers »

Join SB Nation and dive into communities focused on all your favorite teams.

Connect_with_facebook

Cbs_fantasy_baseball_promo

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recommended FanPosts

Danielson_small
Withrow Debut Recap (03/14/10)
Small
Dodger Prospect countdown: 20 - 11

Recent FanPosts

23821_869130653101_6028096_47694983_1640647_n_small
Quick look at the 2007 Draft for pitchers in the first round.
Small
Giles to Retire
Brim_reaper_blue4_small
Pittsburgh series, Apr 30-May 2
0646a9dfc333ac84_small
Delectable Dodger Delight at CBR
Img_0476_small
Best Seats in Dodger Stadium?
Bison_small
Unlikely Dodger Catchers - 1983 version
100_1427_small
Joe Nathan completes the trifecta
Rytea_small
Simulated 2010 Dodgers Stats

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >

True Blue LA on Twitter

2010 Dodger Payroll

Pos No Player 2010 Salary
C 55 Martin $5,050,000
1B 7 Loney $3,100,000
2B 33 DeWitt $410,000*
3B 23 Blake $6,000,000
SS 15 Furcal $8,500,000
LF 99 Manny $7,267,760
CF 27 Kemp $4,000,000
RF 16 Ethier $6,000,000

2B/3B 14 Carroll $1,350,000
2B/3B/1B 3 Belliard $825,000
C 12 Ausmus $850,000
OF 5 Johnson $800,000
SS 60 Hu $405,000*

SP 22 Kershaw $425,000*
SP 58 Billingsley $3,850,000
SP 18 Kuroda $14,100,000
SP 44 Padilla $4,025,000
SP 50 Stults $405,000*

CL 51 Broxton $4,000,000
LHP 52 Sherrill $4,500,000
LHP 56 Kuo $950,000
RHP 67 Troncoso $425,000*
RHP 54 Belisario $425,000*
RHP 31 McDonald $425,000*
RHP 68 Monasterios $460,000*

Pierre $4,000,000
Andruw $3,600,000
Schmidt $2,000,000
Wolf $2,000,000
Hudson $1,440,000
Nomar $1,250,000
Ohman $200,000
Zerpa $35,000
Hoffmann ($50,000)

Others on 40-man roster (total: 39)
RHP 64 Guerra  
RHP 37 Haeger  
RHP 74 Jansen  
LHP 59 Leach
RHP 73 Link  
RHP 49 Schlichting  
LHP 57 Elbert  
RHP 47 Wade
C 9 Ellis  
C 71 May  
SS 87 DeJesus  
OF 75 Paul
OF 17 Repko $500,000
OF 62 Robinson  

Totals $93,522,760
 
Red = arbitration
Asterisk (*) = estimated
For more detailed information, click here.

SPONSORS

SBNation.com Recent Stories

Arizona Diamondbacks' Mark Reynolds connects for a three-run home run against the Houston Astros during the sixth inning of an MLB baseball game Friday, June 12, 2009, in Phoenix. It was Reynolds' fourth hit of the night. (AP Photo/Matt York)

Mark Reynolds Signs Three-Year Contract With Diamondbacks

via danhoard.mlblogs.com

Top Sox Prospect Ryan Westmoreland Scheduled For Brain Surgery

Texas Rangers' Kris Benson pitches to the San Francisco Giants in the first inning of their spring training baseball game in Scottsdale, Ariz., Monday, March 30, 2009. (AP Photo/Jeff Chiu)

Kris Benson Signs Minor League Contract With Arizona

More from SBNation.com >


Managers

100_1427_small Phil Gurnee

Eric_press_box_1_small Eric Stephen

Editors

Bison_small David Young

2501_small Michael White