FanPost

Dodgers Simulation, September 30th

I used my simulator to simulate 50000 baseball games between the Dodgers and Padres using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores.  This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last.  Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.  For your viewing pleasure I have also listed a few other games of local interest.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran at 1130PM)

 

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob AccuScore
LAN SD J.Garland vs C.Richard LAN 55.36% 50.48% 60%
MIL COL J.Suppan vs J.Hammel COL 64.97% 69.36% 69%
HOU PHI B.Moehler vs P.Martinez PHI 67.64% 60.07% 64%
FLA ATL R.Nolasco vs J.Vazquez ATL 65.56% 62.49% 60%
MIN DET C.Pavano vs E.Bonine MIN 53.04% 51.46% 59%

 Skinny:  Simulator Fun Facts...  Looks like my simulator is the latest entity to jump ship.  It's only giving the Dodgers slightly over a 50% chance to win wednesday's game.  It will be interesting to see where the Vegas lines and AccuScore come in.  Vegas obviously doesn't have the balls to post their lines until the morning.  My guess is that Vegas has the Dodgers as 55% faves and AccuScore is somewhere around the Simulator.  We'll see...  Vegas comes in about where I thought, but AccuScore today all of the sudden has the Dodgers as being Padre slayers after thinking Billingsley would lose to them yesterday.  Perhaps they are on to something???

 

 

Top 20 Most Likely Scores

1 SD 3-2
2 SD 4-3
3 SD 2-1
4 LAN 3-2
5 LAN 4-3
6 LAN 2-1
7 LAN 4-2
8 SD 5-4
9 SD 3-1
10 SD 4-2
11 LAN 3-1
12 LAN 5-4
13 LAN 5-3
14 LAN 4-1
15 SD 1-0
16 SD 4-1
17 SD 5-2
18 SD 6-5
19 SD 5-3
20 SD 2-0

 

Game Pitching Results

Pitcher WHIP FIP
J.Garland 1.289 3.818
C.Richard 1.357 3.963

 


Note: Keep in mind I did this simulation before knowing the actual starting lineups, so some of the players I used may not be starting.   Many of the "Players Most Likely To" stats depend on having the correct lineup.  The lineups  I used are listed below.  Chances are you won't see a big difference in win probability from having the lineup order slightly off.  Picking the correct starters is more important, especially if one of the better players is taking the day off.  But you still won't see a big change in win probability if the starter and backup are interchangeable.

Simulation Lineups
1 R.Furcal T.Gwynn
2 O.Hudson D.Eckstein
3 A.Ethier A.Gonzalez
4 M.Ramirez C.Headley
5 M.Kemp W.Venable
6 J.Loney K.Kouzmanoff
7 R.Martin N.Hundley
8 J.Castro E.Cabrera
9 J.Garland C.Richard
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