Dodgers & The Race For Home Field Advantage

by Eric Stephen on Sep 30, 2009 8:27 AM PDT in News Comment 48 comments

The Dodgers' magic number is three to clinch home field throughout the National League playoffs.

Team	W-L	GB
Dodgers	93-65	---
Phillies	91-66	1½
Cardinals	90-67	2½

With five days left in the regular season, the Dodgers hold a lead over both the Phillies and Cardinals in the race for best record in the National League. Ideally, the Dodgers will wrap up best record some time over the next few days, but just in case they tie with one or both of these teams, here are the tiebreaker scenarios:

1) Dodgers Tie Phillies

The Dodgers would win this tiebreaker, because they beat the Phillies in the season series, 4-3.

2) Dodgers Tie Cardinals

The Cardinals would win this tiebreaker, because they beat the Dodgers in the season series, 5-2.

3) Dodgers Tie Phillies and Cardinals

The first tiebreaker in this rare scenario is head-to-head records against the other two teams. The Phillies would win this tiebreaker:

Team	Record vs Other 2
Phillies	7-5
Cardinals	6-6
Dodgers	6-8

After the top team is determined from the three teams, the other two are subject to the normal two-team tiebreaker, which starts with head-to-head record, which means the Cardinals would be the #2 seed, and the Dodgers the #3 seed.

In this scenario, the Phillies would play the Rockies, should they win the wild card, in the first round, leaving the Cardinals with home field advantage against the Dodgers because of their 5-2 edge in the season series.

Should the Braves win the wild card in this scenario, the Cardinals would host them as the #2 seed, leaving the Phillies with home field advantage against the Dodgers by virtue of winning the three-team tiebreaker. The Phillies cannot play the Braves in the first round since they are in the same division.

Essentially, the Dodgers magic number over both clubs is three (since the Dodgers would win a tiebreaker with Philadelphia).

Here's a look at the remaining schedule for all three teams:

Team	Wed	Thu	Fri	Sat	Sun
Dodgers	@ SD		Col	Col	Col
Phillies	Hou	Hou	Fla	Fla	Fla
Cardinals	@ Cin	@ Cin	Mil	Mil	Mil

The Dodgers are 48-30 at home this season, and 45-35 on the road.

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Interesting

everyone is at home for the final three games with a very good possibility the only thing being at stake is home field advantage.

by meercatjohn on Sep 30, 2009 8:32 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

wow - avoiding that 3 way tie

would sure be nice.

Gut feeling – we finish 2nd to Philly, and in front of St. Louis.

by oshea2002 on Sep 30, 2009 8:37 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I like our chances. I think we may end up tied with Philadelphia with the Cardinals behind, which is just fine for the Dodgers.

A 3-way tie is bad for the Dodgers, in that they could only get home field in the NLCS against the Rockies.

by Eric Stephen on Sep 30, 2009 8:41 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ever confident we will end the season on a four game winning streak

with home field in hand.

by meercatjohn on Sep 30, 2009 8:47 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

the dodgers have owned the rockies this year

They should take two of three at least this weekend

by JakeNMDodgerfan on Sep 30, 2009 8:57 AM PDT via mobile reply actions 0 recs

Any news and Casey?

Is he with the team in SD? Any idea when he will be back in the lineup? I can’t help but think some of this losing streak relates to him being out.

by MammothDodger on Sep 30, 2009 9:21 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

and=on

by MammothDodger on Sep 30, 2009 9:21 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

It looks like Casey Blake will be out until the weekend

2009-10 LA Kings Hockey: Where Smyt Happens!!

by DodgerBlueBalls on Sep 30, 2009 9:31 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

He’s supposed to be back Friday

by Eric Stephen on Sep 30, 2009 9:31 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

From the LA Times:

Blake, who received treatment on his strained left hamstring Monday in Los Angeles, rejoined the club but said he probably wouldn’t play until Friday. “Of course, I want to be out there and help the team clinch, but it’s not about that, it’s about getting enough at-bats before the playoffs,” he said. “If I play Friday, Saturday and Sunday, that’s 12 at-bats right there.”

by Eric Stephen on Sep 30, 2009 9:33 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

thanks

Certainly the important thing is for him to be back for the post-season, but the fall off at 3rd both defensively and on offense from Casey to any of his backups (especially CAstro) is pretty large, here’s hoping we can at least get the one we have left in SD and get a little help from HOU and CIN so Magic# is down to 1 for HFA when CAsey returns. he is as Vin likes to call him “A professional baseball player” and a pretty solid rock in the middle of the lineup

by MammothDodger on Sep 30, 2009 10:03 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

His beard is pretty damn professional, too

2009-10 LA Kings Hockey: Where Smyt Happens!!

by DodgerBlueBalls on Sep 30, 2009 10:22 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Litter Box Trip!!!

I will be at tonight’s game, 20 rows up from first base. Will any other TBLA’ers be there as well?

2009-10 LA Kings Hockey: Where Smyt Happens!!

by DodgerBlueBalls on Sep 30, 2009 9:39 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs

Please lose today :)

The Rockies won’t sweep in Dodgertown, but the idea of the division coming down to that series is way too juicy…

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Sep 30, 2009 11:05 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

It is getting a bit comical, in a tragic sort of way, I will admit.

by Eric Stephen on Sep 30, 2009 11:13 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Rox loose today just to rub it in. Guaranteed.

by Dodger Dude on Sep 30, 2009 11:29 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Indeed...Cesar Ramos?

Though it was looking possible we’d lose to Chris Narveson last night (ironically one of the three we got from STL for Larry Walker). I’m more confident about beating Suppan with Hammel than I was Narveson with Marquis, strange as it seems. Clayton Richard at PetCo is no cinch either

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Sep 30, 2009 12:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Padres are undefeated in the other Clayton’s five home starts.

by Eric Stephen on Sep 30, 2009 12:49 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I hope we don’t fall into those teams who let post-season home field advantage “get away”. I read comments from last night’s game chat, very amusing.

by PHAT JULIO on Sep 30, 2009 11:20 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, I just went back to read those. Yeesh. Some funny, some tragic. :)

by Eric Stephen on Sep 30, 2009 11:33 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeesh. Yeppers. Some more inspiration from "The Office"

Scene from The Office TV Show where a basketball game is being planned in the warehouse…
Oscar: [of Mexican descent] “I can play [basketball] if you need any help.”
Michael Scott: “I will use your talents come baseball season, my friend. Or if we box.”

As insane and improbable as this show is(but in my experience close to reality), it seems as our team’s take of “THE SHOW” also has the same characteristics the last few days.

Go Dodgers! Do you believe?

by RawhideBlue on Sep 30, 2009 11:52 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Dodgers Clinch Tonight!

Call me a dreamer but I believe Garland is up for a great game tonight. They will not lose 4 in a row. I see Manny having a good night tonight also. Then 1 day of rest and back home to sweep the Rockies!!!

by MineYack on Sep 30, 2009 11:23 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I haven't read every comment or story here (obviously)

but I take it you guys are rooting for the Cardinals to finish better than the Phils so you draw the Phillies in the DS?

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Sep 30, 2009 12:57 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Except for those of us (raises hand) who were rooting for Atlanta to win the WC. From my perspective, that race is over now (I’m not sure how confident you folks are of that point but yesterday pretty much wrapped it up in my mind) so yes, I would prefer the Phillies first.

by Michael White on Sep 30, 2009 1:01 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

We are quite confident

Definitely not over, as we’re not really guaranteed more than two wins, and they’re still not guaranteed any losses with that schedule. But the anxiety has eased.

Why would you want Atlanta to win the WC? They are a much bigger threat in the playoffs than the Rockies, especially to Los Angeles. You just don’t want Colorado in the dance that much?

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Sep 30, 2009 1:29 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

The main reason a Dodger fan would root for the Braves is that that means the Dodgers, if they clinch the best record in the NL, would face a WC team in the first round and not have to face the possibility of having to beat both Philly and St. Louis to get to the WS.

by David Young on Sep 30, 2009 1:34 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I suppose this makes sense

though Atlanta has been playing like a division winner lately, and they easily could have been had they had Hudson/Hanson all season

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Sep 30, 2009 1:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well I’m only looking at it from a 1st round perspective (got to win that before worrying about the NLCS.) The Dogers can’t play Colorado in the first, so it comes down to a “who would you rather play” between Atlanta, Phil, and St. Louis. My answer was Atlanta as they have the worst lineup of the 3 and outside Vasquez the rotation does nothing for me. I find them to be the weakest team in that field.

You are a division rival and so I don’t really care to see the Rockies in the playoffs. You guys are nice folks and all, but as the Rockies and the Dodgers have battled (along with AZ) for divisional supremacy the past few years rivalries develop. The history might not be as deep as the Giants/Dodgers, but I’m sure you can appreciate a Dodger fan viewing the Rockies as rival…

by Michael White on Sep 30, 2009 1:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I didn't think any Dodgers fans cared enough about the Rockies to consider them a rival

especially after getting completely outclassed head to head this season. I have to disagree big time on the rotation though. Jurrjens is quietly exceptional, you all know what Lowe can do as a 3, and Hanson/Hudson are as fearsome as you’ll find 4/5. I believe Fangraphs ranks them 4th (maybe 5th) in WAR, and that was with others like Kris Medlen contributing…

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Sep 30, 2009 1:39 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Jurrjens may be exceptionally lucky, but that's about it

his x-FIP is 4.50 which would be good for 5th or 6th amongst the Dodger starters. So if you like an ERA built on pixie dust, he’s your man.

Hanson isn’t much better at 4.24.

by Michael White on Sep 30, 2009 1:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree he has been lucky

Though WPA and FIP based WAR still place him in the top 12 in the NL…it’s nothing to sneeze at.

Of course, if you go by WAR, the Rockies have the best pitching staff in the majors :)

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Sep 30, 2009 2:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don’t really understand why one would use the Fangraphs WAR as opposed to x-FIP. A quick read led me to believe that WAR basically takes FIP and equalizes for park factors, etc. But doesn’t x-FIP essentially do the same thing by normalizing the home run rate? I find it interesting that his x-FIP would be so poor yet the WAR would be so strong (top 12 is definitely strong) yet I can’t figure out what WAR is doing radically different than x-FIP. WAR is obviously a more involved calculation, but I wouldn’t expect to have such a large delta between the two.

My only thoughts is WAR gives you more credit for the number of innings you throw, but that doesn’t really eliminate the luck factor. A lucky pitcher (stranding lots of batters) would be left in the game longer. An unlucky pitcher would be pulled from the game due to surrendering more runs. In this case, i understand that WAR would be great in telling you how valuable a player has been, but I feel it would be less predictive of future success (compared to x-FIP.)

Any insight you could provide on this would be great. Thanks.

by Michael White on Sep 30, 2009 2:12 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

To be honest, I have not worked with x-FIP much at all

My guess is it’s more experimental and new – the Hardball Times even describes it as “experimental.”

If my inferences are correct, it would seem x-FIP is more of a predictor stat, so it wouldn’t be used in a performance-based stat like WAR. To be honest, I knew nothing of anything SABR until this year, so I’m probably prone to heading down the rabbit-hole from time to time.

By the way, Jurrjens is 8th in LOB% in MLB. But I also contend stranding runners involves a small amount of skill, sort of like hitting w RISP. Are Greinke and Wainwright lucky? They strand more…

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Sep 30, 2009 2:21 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Greinke strikes out a ton of batters

whilst Jurrjens does not. Therefore, Greinke controlls his own atmosphere more. Pitchers who “pitch to contact” don’t, so their either lucky or not. That’s why Greinke’s x-FIP is stellar and not viewed as a lucky pitcher.

Plus, I find the argument that stranding batters involving skill to be pretty soft. With few exceptions (like pitching around power hitters) a pitcher always attempts to retire a batter. They don’t see there are runners on and then say “okay, now I’ll really start pitching.” LOB% is a luck indicator, and guys like Jurrjens will regress to the mean (IMO.)

by Michael White on Sep 30, 2009 2:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well

Maybe in the context of comparing an individual pitcher to his career statistics. I’ll buy that each individual pitcher will regress to their own personal LOB% mean, but not that everyone will to a league average mean.

Put a runner on second with two outs. Greinke will strand that runner far more often than Adam Eaton. In the grand scheme of things though, I do agree Jurrjens is lucky, and I suppose I’m just stimulating conversation. I’ll agree he’s not as good as his stats very readily, but I’m not willing to say I would only really be worried about Vazquez in a series

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Sep 30, 2009 2:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wainwright’s ERA is 2.58 while his x-FIP is 3.48. So yes, I think he is lucky and would expect him to regress to the mean…

by Michael White on Sep 30, 2009 2:28 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

One last point

Fangraphs developed the Win Values for pitchers in January of this year. So it’s no less experimental than x-FIP.

by Michael White on Sep 30, 2009 2:30 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

That's interesting...

I did not know that…thanks.

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Sep 30, 2009 2:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Just thinking aloud, but

for starting pitchers anyway, maybe LOB% (or OBP/Slg allowed with runners on base or whatever) could mean something. Unlike batters with or without runners on, starting pitchers do something markedly and physically different once runners are on base: they pitch from the stretch. It’s not unfathomable to me that some pitchers would be more effective from a windup than from the stretch.

by David Young on Sep 30, 2009 4:01 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I am rooting to play the Cardinals because I think the Dodgers can beat them and it would be very satisfying to beat a team that “owns” us.

by Eric Stephen on Sep 30, 2009 1:03 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

For sure

You do that, then repay the favor in the NLCS :)

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Sep 30, 2009 1:30 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree. Many people also think the Phillies “own” the Dodgers as well. :)

by Eric Stephen on Sep 30, 2009 1:33 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wait a minute!

I thought it was Charles Ebbets that owned the Dodgers, right?

2009-10 LA Kings Hockey: Where Smyt Happens!!

by DodgerBlueBalls on Sep 30, 2009 1:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Zing

When he was alive :)

by Eric Stephen on Sep 30, 2009 1:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think the Cardinals have the best chance to reach the WS

No other team has a better 1-2 punch in the rotation or 3-4 punch in the lineup. It’s not like the rest of their rotation or lineup is weak by any stretch of the imagination either. Teams that lean more towards upper end talent (like STL) get a little better advantage in the playoffs than their regular season record might suggest than teams that lean more on overall depth (Colorado). It’s just hard to capitalize on depth in a series.

All that said, I hope WE play STL. We’re 6-1 against them this season but haven’t proven capable of beating Philly or LA especially. Plus, Lee/Hamels/Happ would be brutal on our lefty-heavy lineup. Actually, that’s wishful thinking. Jim Tracy would overthink platoon splits to have far inferior hitters starting that whole series.

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Sep 30, 2009 1:34 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I wouldn't get too hung up on W-L records within one season

Playoffs are too much of a crap shoot, as it a 6 or 7 game season series.

by Michael White on Sep 30, 2009 1:37 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree

but it could potentially be a psychological block. For a relatively young team, it may make a difference, just I imagine the Rockies’ 2-1 record against Carp/Wainwright could help. I may be overstating it, but it seems like the Rockies are ridiculously impressionable in specific.

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Sep 30, 2009 1:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Rockies will win home field advantage

What a stupid article! You left out the obvious winner of home field advantage. The Rockies.

After the Rockies sweep the Dodgers this weekend, they will have the West. Then they own the tie breaker over the Cards, so they will just need the Phillies to lose one game this weekend. Then they will have the best record and home field. The Rockies do not lose at home. They should sweep the Cards and then win a close series against the Phillies. Then bring on the Yankees. They need a whipping!

by Senor_Loser on Oct 1, 2009 4:42 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs