Dodgers Pitching A Strength, Not A Weakness
by Eric Stephen on Sep 5, 2009 8:31 AM PDT
in Dodgers History & Records
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PrintComing into the season, the prevailing thought about this Dodger team was that it would ride the offense and hope the pitching staff gave them enough to compete. We even ran a contest trying to figure out which historical Dodger team the 2009 club would emulate. The 1963 Dodgers won that contest, with their 98 OPS+ (meaning slightly below average offense after accounting for park and league) and 105 ERA+ (meaning slightly above average pitching).
Here we stand, 136 games into a 162-game season, and the verdict in: the pitching staff is the unquestioned strength of this team. You might not know this if you have read columns and articles recently about the Dodgers' lack of an ace pitcher to lead the rotation. However, in total, from starters to the amazing bullpen, the Dodgers have an awesome pitching staff.
The Dodgers have an adjusted ERA, or ERA+, of 121. They are 21 percent better than the average NL team. That figure is second in baseball to the Giants, who boast an impressive staff of their own. The Dodgers are also third in the league in FIP, at 3.84, behind the Braves and Giants. Here's a look at the National League playoff contenders and their pitching staffs:
| Overall | Starters | Bullpen | ||||
| Team | ERA | ERA+ | ERA | ERA+ | ERA | ERA+ |
| Giants | 3.48 | 124 | 3.47 | 124 | 3.52 | 123 |
| Dodgers | 3.47 | 121 | 3.64 | 115 | 3.19 | 132 |
| Cardinals | 3.66 | 114 | 3.61 | 114 | 3.77 | 111 |
| Rockies | 4.24 | 107 | 4.11 | 110 | 4.52 | 100 |
| Phillies | 4.12 | 105 | 4.25 | 102 | 3.87 | 112 |
That 121 ERA+ by the Dodgers would be their third best since moving to Los Angeles. The amazing 2003 club represented an amazing contrast. When the Dodgers were on the field, they were one of the greatest teams of all-time (128 ERA+), but when they grabbed a bat they were one of the worst teams in history (79 OPS+). The 1966 club rode a 125 ERA+ to the World Series.
Putting up a 120 ERA+ as a team is a rare event, or at least it was rare until the Braves of the 1990s decided to assemble the greatest pitching staff of all-time. Counting this year's Dodgers and Giants, the 120 ERA+ barrier has only been reached 25 times in the last 52 years in the National League. Eight of those occurrences were by the Braves, in a ten-year period from 1993-2002.
| Highest NL ERA+, 1958-2009 | ||
| Team | Year | ERA+ |
| Braves | 2002 | 133 |
| Braves | 1997 | 131 |
| Braves | 1993 | 129 |
| Braves | 1998 | 128 |
| Dodgers | 2003 | 128 |
| Dodgers | 1966 | 125 |
| Reds | 1967 | 124 |
| Braves | 1995 | 124 |
| Braves | 1996 | 124 |
| Braves | 2001 | 124 |
| Giants | 2009 | 124 |
| Braves | 1974 | 123 |
| Astros | 1981 | 123 |
| Braves | 1999 | 123 |
| Mets | 1969 | 122 |
| D-Backs | 1999 | 122 |
| D-Backs | 2003 | 122 |
| Cardinals | 1962 | 121 |
| Cubs | 1969 | 121 |
| Cardinals | 1969 | 121 |
| Cardinals | 2005 | 121 |
| Dodgers | 2009 | 121 |
| Dodgers | 1972 | 120 |
| D-Backs | 2001 | 120 |
| Astros | 2005 | 120 |
From top to bottom, the strength of this Dodger team is pitching. Don't let anyone else tell you any differently.
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Currently Dodgers are tied for 4th in NL
Milwaukee leads at 102+, Philadelphia and Colorado are tied at 101+, the Dodgers are tied with Florida with 99+. St. Louis is next at 98+
A 99 OPS+ is still above average as the leauge stats include pitchers hitting. The average would be a 94 OPS+
While a players OPS+ is only measured against other hitters.
Great info, but what about the playoffs?
Thanks for assembling these stats, very interesting stuff. In a previous thread, someone said the reason the Dodgers look good in pitching stats is that compared to everyone else, the back end of their rotation and the middle of their bullpen have been stupendous.
I would like to see a comparison of the Dodgers/Cards/Rockies/Giants/Phillies using only the teams likely playoff starters and core bullpens. It would be interesting to see how the Dodgers stack up when the 5th starters and long relievers are taken out of the equation.
^^This is a cool idea for a study by LA Taco. Great article, Eric. Really appreciate you taking the time to research the historical comparisons!
2009-10 LA Kings Hockey: Where Smyt Happens!!
by DodgerBlueBalls on Sep 5, 2009 11:40 AM PDT up reply actions
Hey I don’t get paid for this. Give me an assignment to compare King Taco with my favorite Highland Park taco table and I’m there… :)
Just curious if the person in that other thread was right— that our pitching dominance is an illusion because our strength comes from matchups that won’t exist come playoff time.
OK since you goaded me into it, part 1 is let’s say the Dodgers match up with the Phillies and Cards in terms of playoff rotation starters. We know from the above that our overall ERA+ is better than both teams, but how about when comparing playoff rotations?
Phillies:
Cliff Lee: 153
Cole Hamels: 101
Joe Blanton: 114
JA Happ: 156
Average: 131
Dodgers:
Chad Billingsly: 108
Hiro Kuroda: 103
Randy Wolf: 129
Clayton Kershaw: 145.
Average: 121.5
Cardinals:
Joel Pineiro: 131
Adam Wainwright: 156
Chris Carpenter: 183
Mitchell Boggs: 92
Average: 140.5
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