FanPost

September 6th, Dodgers Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 25000 baseball games between the Padres and Dodgers using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran at 8:00AM)

 

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Over/Under Final Score
SD LAN T.Stauffer vs H.Kuroda
LAN 66.78% 69.09% 8/5 / 8.33 TBD

 Skinny:  Dodgers are a heavy favorite once again against the Padres.  No surprises here!  My simulator is a little more confident than Vegas of a Dodger victory.  My guess is that Vegas is penalizing Kuroda for not having made a start in a couple of weeks.

Simulator Fun Facts...

 

 

Top 10 Most Likely Scores

1 LAN 3-2
2 LAN 4-3
3 LAN 5-4
4 LAN 2-1
5 LAN 3-1
6 LAN 4-2
7 SD 3-2
8 SD 4-3
9 LAN 6-5
10 LAN 5-1

 

Pitching Stats

Pitcher WHIP FIP
T.Stauffer 1.507 4.807
H.Kuroda 1.125 3.089

 


Note: Keep in mind I did this simulation before knowing the actual starting lineups, so some of the players I used may not be starting.   Many of the "Players Most Likely To" stats depend on having the correct lineup.  The lineups I used are listed below.  Chances are you won't see a big difference in win probability from having the lineup order slightly off.  Picking the correct starters is more important, especially if one of the better players is taking the day off.  But you still won't see a big change in win probability if the starter and backup are interchangeable.

Simulation Lineups
1 E.Cabrera R.Furcal
2 D.Eckstein A.Ethier
3 A.Gonzalez M.Ramirez
4 K.Kouzmanoff M.Kemp
5 C.Headley C.Blake
6 W.Venable J.Loney
7 N.Hundley R.Martin
8 T.Gwynn O.Hudson
9 T.Stauffer H.Kuroda







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