September 9th, Dodgers Simulation

by Xeifrank on Sep 9, 2009 10:01 AM PDT Comment 4 comments

I used my simulator to simulate 25000 baseball games between the Diamondbacks and Dodgers using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups. The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran at 9:99PM)

Visitors	Home	Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Over/Under	AccuScore
LAN	ARI	J.Garland vs D.Haren	ARI	55.56%	59.32%	8.4 / 9.53	61%

Skinny: Simulator Fun Facts... Like a broken record my simulator is leaning towards the Diamondbacks more than Vegas is. Vegas is 2 for 2 so far, but really lucked out with the Dodgers late inning comeback last night. Atleast this time my simulator is not the outlier. AccuScore, or as I like to call them UNAccuScore has the Diamondbacks favored heavier than my simulator.

Top 10 Most Likely Scores
1	ARI 4-3
2	ARI 5-4
3	ARI 3-2
4	ARI 6-5
5	LAN 4-3
6	ARI 4-2
7	ARI 5-3
8	ARI 2-1
9	LAN 3-2
10	LAN 5-4

Pitching Stats
Pitcher	WHIP	FIP
J.Garland	1.488	4.387
D.Haren	1.188	3.155

Note: Keep in mind I did this simulation before knowing the actual starting lineups, so some of the players I used may not be starting. Many of the "Players Most Likely To" stats depend on having the correct lineup. The lineups I used are listed below. Chances are you won't see a big difference in win probability from having the lineup order slightly off. Picking the correct starters is more important, especially if one of the better players is taking the day off. But you still won't see a big change in win probability if the starter and backup are interchangeable.

Simulation Lineups
1	S.Drew	R.Furcal
2	G.Parra	M.Kemp
3	J.Upton	A.Ethier
4	M.Reynolds	M.Ramirez
5	M.Montero	J.Loney
6	C.Young	R.Belliard
7	B.Allen	R.Martin
8	A.Ojeda	O.Hudson
9	D.Haren	J.Garland

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Comments

Damn

hopefully we can pull this one off, a series sweep would be marvelous. Why don’t you like Accuscore? I’ve heard good things about their football. Perhaps there’s something I don’t know about their baseball simulations

I'm nobody's fool, least of all yours

by BoulderDodger on Sep 9, 2009 1:36 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

There is very little transparency in AccuScore. From my brief postings with their staff, they don’t take into consideration many things and leave it to their customers to make those adjustments themselves. They present their win probability as if it’s their final product, but yet it’s not… atleast that’s what I found out in baseball.

Plus I tracked their results all of last year vs Vegas as well as mine. They did better than me the first month or so of the season. I made a lot of improvements to my sim by taking into account more variables and doing things more accurately and was shortly kicking their butt.

I love the way they present their results visually. Just not crazy about their final product. Perhaps they’ve gotten better recently, but from the sounds of it they had no intention of making further improvements the last time I talked with them.

I have no idea how their football predictions stack up. I don’t follow football as closely. Nor do I have a sim for it. Baseball is much easier to model, as it’s not much of a team sport.

vr, Xei

by Xeifrank on Sep 9, 2009 2:11 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

ah, thanks

speaking of which, my buddy is actually pissed off at them right now because they haven’t taken into account any of the starting quarterbacks who are listed as questionable or doubtful and how that might affect the game.

i’m actually trying to develop a program as well using software from my computing econ class :o. got a ways to go though

I'm nobody's fool, least of all yours

by BoulderDodger on Sep 9, 2009 4:22 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

#1 most likely score

hits tonight (ARI 4-3). Sad to say.
vr, Xei

by Xeifrank on Sep 9, 2009 10:04 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

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2010 Dodger Payroll

Pos	No	Player	2010 Salary
C	55	Martin	$5,050,000
1B	7	Loney	$3,100,000
2B	33	DeWitt	$410,000*
3B	23	Blake	$6,000,000
SS	15	Furcal	$8,500,000
LF	99	Manny	$7,267,760
CF	27	Kemp	$4,000,000
RF	16	Ethier	$6,000,000

2B/3B	14	Carroll	$1,350,000
2B/3B/1B	3	Belliard	$825,000
C	12	Ausmus	$850,000
OF	5	Johnson	$800,000
SS	60	Hu	$405,000*

SP	22	Kershaw	$425,000*
SP	58	Billingsley	$3,850,000
SP	18	Kuroda	$14,100,000
SP	44	Padilla	$4,025,000
SP	57	Elbert	$405,000*

CL	51	Broxton	$4,000,000
LHP	52	Sherrill	$4,500,000
LHP	56	Kuo	$950,000
RHP	67	Troncoso	$425,000*
RHP	54	Belisario	$425,000*
RHP	31	McDonald	$425,000*
RHP	68	Monasterios	$460,000*

		Pierre	$4,000,000
		Andruw	$3,600,000
		Schmidt	$2,000,000
		Wolf	$2,000,000
		Hudson	$1,440,000
		Nomar	$1,250,000
		Ohman	$200,000
		Zerpa	$35,000
		Hoffmann	($50,000)

Others on 40-man roster (total: 39)
RHP	64	Guerra
RHP	37	Haeger
RHP	74	Jansen
LHP	59	Leach
RHP	73	Link
RHP	49	Schlichting
LHP	50	Stults
RHP	47	Wade
C	9	Ellis
C	71	May
SS	87	DeJesus
OF	75	Paul
OF	17	Repko	$500,000
OF	62	Robinson

Totals			$93,522,760
Red = arbitration Asterisk (*) = estimated
For more detailed information, click here.

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