September 9th, Dodgers Simulation
by Xeifrank on Sep 9, 2009 10:01 AM PDT
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PrintI used my simulator to simulate 25000 baseball games between the Diamondbacks and Dodgers using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups. The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.
Today's Results... (Last simulation ran at 9:99PM)
| Visitors | Home | Pitching Matchup | Favorite | Vegas Win Prob | Simulator Win Prob | Over/Under | AccuScore |
| LAN | ARI | J.Garland vs D.Haren | ARI | 55.56% | 59.32% | 8.4 / 9.53 | 61% |
Skinny: Simulator Fun Facts... Like a broken record my simulator is leaning towards the Diamondbacks more than Vegas is. Vegas is 2 for 2 so far, but really lucked out with the Dodgers late inning comeback last night. Atleast this time my simulator is not the outlier. AccuScore, or as I like to call them UNAccuScore has the Diamondbacks favored heavier than my simulator.
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Top 10 Most Likely Scores |
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| 1 | ARI 4-3 |
| 2 | ARI 5-4 |
| 3 | ARI 3-2 |
| 4 | ARI 6-5 |
| 5 | LAN 4-3 |
| 6 | ARI 4-2 |
| 7 | ARI 5-3 |
| 8 | ARI 2-1 |
| 9 | LAN 3-2 |
| 10 | LAN 5-4 |
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Pitching Stats |
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| Pitcher | WHIP | FIP |
| J.Garland | 1.488 | 4.387 |
| D.Haren | 1.188 | 3.155 |
Note: Keep in mind I did this simulation before knowing the actual starting lineups, so some of the players I used may not be starting. Many of the "Players Most Likely To" stats depend on having the correct lineup. The lineups I used are listed below. Chances are you won't see a big difference in win probability from having the lineup order slightly off. Picking the correct starters is more important, especially if one of the better players is taking the day off. But you still won't see a big change in win probability if the starter and backup are interchangeable.
| Simulation Lineups | ||
| 1 | S.Drew | R.Furcal |
| 2 | G.Parra | M.Kemp |
| 3 | J.Upton | A.Ethier |
| 4 | M.Reynolds | M.Ramirez |
| 5 | M.Montero | J.Loney |
| 6 | C.Young | R.Belliard |
| 7 | B.Allen | R.Martin |
| 8 | A.Ojeda | O.Hudson |
| 9 | D.Haren | J.Garland |
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Comments
Damn
hopefully we can pull this one off, a series sweep would be marvelous. Why don’t you like Accuscore? I’ve heard good things about their football. Perhaps there’s something I don’t know about their baseball simulations
I'm nobody's fool, least of all yours
There is very little transparency in AccuScore. From my brief postings with their staff, they don’t take into consideration many things and leave it to their customers to make those adjustments themselves. They present their win probability as if it’s their final product, but yet it’s not… atleast that’s what I found out in baseball.
Plus I tracked their results all of last year vs Vegas as well as mine. They did better than me the first month or so of the season. I made a lot of improvements to my sim by taking into account more variables and doing things more accurately and was shortly kicking their butt.
I love the way they present their results visually. Just not crazy about their final product. Perhaps they’ve gotten better recently, but from the sounds of it they had no intention of making further improvements the last time I talked with them.
I have no idea how their football predictions stack up. I don’t follow football as closely. Nor do I have a sim for it. Baseball is much easier to model, as it’s not much of a team sport.
vr, Xei
ah, thanks
speaking of which, my buddy is actually pissed off at them right now because they haven’t taken into account any of the starting quarterbacks who are listed as questionable or doubtful and how that might affect the game.
i’m actually trying to develop a program as well using software from my computing econ class :o. got a ways to go though
I'm nobody's fool, least of all yours
by BoulderDodger on Sep 9, 2009 4:22 PM PDT up reply actions
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