Garland's Time to Shine
by bearface on Sep 9, 2009 12:24 PM PDT
Email
PrintTonight's game, to me, is exactly why we signed Garland. An inning eater when we're facing top-tier pitching like Haren. If Garland lasts 6-7 innings and keeps us within 3 runs we're left with a fresh bullpen as well as Pierre, Thome, Loretta, and whoever doesn't start between Hudson, Blake, and Belliard.
With possible post-season matchups against guys like Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright, Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Cliff Lee, or even CC Sabbathia, we're going to need somebody like this.
31 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Tomorrow is an off day, so the Dodgers can throw pretty much the whole kitchen sink at the Diamondback (bullpen wise) tonight. The one exception might be Broxton, who has made back to back appearances of 18 and 19 pitches. I would think he would be unavailable unless pressed into service by an extra inning game or a one out save. We could very well see Belisario or Sherrill get first shot at a save opportunity tonight, god-willing.
vr, Xei
I really don't want to see Garland pitch in the postseason
Nothing against Mr. Garland personally, I just don’t find him to be a very good pitcher. His best year (according to x-FIP) was 2005 when he turned in a 4.31 x-FIP. Chad’s worst year (as a starter) was 2007 when he posted an x-FIP of 4.16. Assuming Kuroda is healthy, Garland’s stats are not better than any of the Big 4 Dodger starters.
2 arguments for starting Garland in the postseason. 1) If a starter is not healthy. In this case, I agree, Garland is the next best pitcher on the staff. 2) If you believe that despite Chad having better numbers for the year as a whole, the recent trends suggest Garland is a better pitcher. Garlands ERA for the second half of the year is 3.82 while Chad’s is 5.23. Chad is also fighting a spike in BABIP of .333 compared to a favorable BABIP for Garland of .294. As such, there is some luck involved in those splts to be sure.
Basically, I feel Garland should start ahead of Chad if and only if Chad is hurt. I would like to see Chad striking more batters out to be sure, but having watched Chad for a few years and looking at Garland’s numbers, I don’t consider Garland to be a better pitching option that Chad.
by Michael White on Sep 9, 2009 1:42 PM PDT reply actions 4 recs
To Me Its Not About Who's Better
Its About Being Realistic.
No matter what the situation is, the Dodgers are going to face really tough pitching in the post season and the later innings are going to be key to a lot of those games, so we are going to need a strong bullpen.
Right now.
Wolf – 6.3 innings per start
Billingsley – 6.1 innings per start
Kershaw – 5.6 innings per start
Kuroda – 5.8 innings per start
Even with days off in the post-season, that’s still a lot of innings to cover for the bullpen.
But that is an overwhelming strength of this team. We have five guys (Brox, Sherrill, Kuo, Tronocoso, Belisario) that other teams would kill to have even two or three of. If any team is equipped to handle short starts, its the Dodgers
How many pitchers do you figure we will have in the pen, given a four man rotation? 8??
If it’s 8 then I wouldn’t worry about the innings from those four listed above. I mean, sure you don’t want them pitching 2 or 3 innings, but if you can get 6IPs, with the occasional <6 and >6 then we should be fine. Garland is great insurance for Kuroda though.
vr, Xei
To me
I like the competition between Billingsley, Kuroda, and Garland from now until the end of the season to see who should get the starting shots in the postseason. If Garland outperforms Bills and Kuroda from here on out, I would go with him over one of those guys.
But that all becomes moot to me if Kuroda or Kershaw are injured for a while.
I really don’t think Kershaw is injured at all. I think the Dodgers probably wanted to rest him some late in the year anyway, and this shagging balls/non-throwing arm injury was as good of an excuse as any.
Kuroda and Billingsley are a different story. I can’t even imagine what it must be like for Kuroda to come back from that line drive. I hope things work out for him, but I would understand completely if he was ineffective for the rest of the regular season and subsequently held out of the postseason as injured. As for Bills the only mention we have of injury is the hamstring issue earlier— which came at a pretty inopportune time as he was rebounding rather nicely from the implosion in St. Louis. That being said, it was noted in the game thread yesterday that he was throwing a ton of breaking pitches and his velocity on his 4 seemer appears to have dipped. Combine that with the fact that opposing batters are not swinging and missing, and it could indicate an injury. If Chad is in fact injured, the drop in strikeouts essentially renders him ineffective (to say nothing of the risk of long term damage) and he should be replaced with the next available starter— presumably Garland.
by Michael White on Sep 9, 2009 2:22 PM PDT up reply actions
That is my main concern with Billingsley.
He is a strikeout type pitcher and when his strikeouts are down, it makes him more open to having pitchers get hits off him. I agree that some of those types of instances can be attributed to luck, but it would be nice to see him get some strikeouts in those type of situations.
As far as Kuraoda is concerned, the guy has missed a lot of baseball this year and I am just not sure how much he has left in the tank this year. When he got hit, I thought the worst and was truly surprised that he has made a comeback attempt this year.
I am excited for Kershaw to rest a bit, get a tune up or two before the post, and then see if he can maybe crank off a few of those 7+ inning 3 hitter type of games that we all most certainly would love.
by Ian Capilouto on Sep 9, 2009 2:34 PM PDT up reply actions
But it looks like
Kuroda is ok health wise. Kershaw seems to be ok, but we will see how much time he misses. For me, there are a lot of variables still at play.
Ok
Both would provide about league average pitching for 6+ innings. Occasionally getting shelled but usually lasting a decent amount of time.
by Chad Moriyama on Sep 9, 2009 2:38 PM PDT up reply actions
And
That is basically what the Dodgers are getting out of Billingsley these days, so that is why I feel that whoever is the hottest over this last month between Billingsley, Kuroda and Garland should have the spot.
As for Haeger, I don’t have an answer other than he has been a minor league knuckleball pitcher with not much big league stats. That could also be an advantage, his relative unknownness. Still, I would like to see him try for a rotation spot next year.
by Ian Capilouto on Sep 9, 2009 2:50 PM PDT up reply actions
I would trust Billingsley to go 5
before yanking him than I would anybody else besides Kershaw/Wolf.
by Chad Moriyama on Sep 9, 2009 3:21 PM PDT up reply actions
Well,
What I am hoping is that either Billingsley, Kuroda or Garland throw some absolute gems between now and the end of the year. I understand the go five thing and then let the excellent bullpen take over. I really liked the addition of Sherrill because I felt it would really shorten games up for the Dodgers. But still, I would like another guy besides Kershaw/Wolf with the chance to shut it down in a playoff game. To me, Kuroda is that guy if he can somehow get it all together.
by Ian Capilouto on Sep 9, 2009 3:43 PM PDT up reply actions
That would be nice...
…but all things being equal, i’m going with the more talented pitcher over a guy with a mediocre career who only has to face mediocre offenses the rest of the way.
by Chad Moriyama on Sep 10, 2009 10:42 AM PDT up reply actions
That is basically what the Dodgers are getting out of Billingsley these days
However, Billingsley is a lot more likely to pull his crap together and throw a gem. We’ve know Garland’s ceiling. Right now, Chad is underperforming and not reaching his ceiling. If underperforming Chad is equal to normal Garland I think you’ve got to go with Chad.
You wanna know how great baseball is? The greatest basketball player ever left his sport to play baseball.
Yeah
there is the possibility that Chad will underperform the rest of the regular season and then find his form for the postseason. Watching it play out will be interesting and make for good baseball games and discussions.
by Ian Capilouto on Sep 9, 2009 4:03 PM PDT up reply actions
All I am saying is I want to see the regular season play out
to see who is the best going into the postseason.
The problem with playing the hot hand
If you keep rolling the dice, at some point you will crap out, if I may mix my metaphor. Always go with the guy you know is good, not that guy that is hot. Of course, if Billingsley scuffles all the way to the end of the season, he may not be the guy you know is good.
Yes, always go with the guy who is better… as long as there is not an underlying circumstance like an injury that is making the pitcher with the better track record as bad or worse than the lesser pitcher.
vr, Xei
We know the type of pitcher Garland.
I am not so sure about Billingsley. Is he injured? Is that effecting his performance? Is he a dominating pitcher who is just on a tough streak? Or is he turning into basically what Jon Garland is, but just a few years behind? And that isn’t necessarily bad in my book. After having a nice year last year, I would have hoped that Billingsley would have improved from that, but he hasn’t. Maybe it was just an off year or bad luck or injury. Hard to say. He is an enigma to me.
by Ian Capilouto on Sep 10, 2009 12:45 PM PDT up reply actions
If Billingsley ends up being Jon Garland then it would be a huge disaster. But if you notice my post above, Billingsley in his worst year (which is not this year BTW) still performed at a higher level than Garland’s best year. And as for saying this year was a disappointment for Billingsley, it surely has been, but it’s really the 2nd half of the year you are speaking about. It’s not like the 1st half doesn’t count and he was dominant (more dominant than Garland has ever been in his career) and helped the Dodgers to jump out to that huge lead.
We know what Chad can do, and we know what Garland can do, and Chad is a better pitcher.
by Michael White on Sep 10, 2009 12:51 PM PDT up reply actions
I am not all negative on Billingsley really at all. His first half was great and he definitely was part of the Dodgers success. But his second half has not been so great, and in your own comparison, you do show that Garland has been significantly better the second half of this year. My main point is that by looking at the second halves, their might be a better option come playoff time. I think when it comes to playoffs, second half stats are important because they are giving a more true idea of where the particular pitcher is at that point. Some guys get more worn tired over the course of a year.
If Billingsley had been pitching as long as Garland career wise and was consistently a better pitcher over that length of time, but was struggling as he is, even if it was way worse, I would be confident with Billingsley. But Billingsley is still a young pitcher and if his seond half continues this way, I think I would be more comfortable going with a known commodity, even if it is not that great. To me, Billingsley is completely unpredictable which is scary to me.
by Ian Capilouto on Sep 10, 2009 2:55 PM PDT up reply actions
The rotation should be
Padilla / Garland / Haeger and they will forever be known as the Three Stooges of the 2009 World Champion Dodgers. James McDonald whose last start ended up with him crying in the dugout will get the last out of the 2009 World Series where he will again be found crying in the dugout, and that game will forever be known as the “Crying Game” .
that 3 stooges post was funny
and that would be absolutely brilliant to beat the yanks with 3 randos we picked up in the middle to late part of the season. but in regards to starters garland is not as bad as people are making him out to be. he has postseason and WORLD SERIES EXP not to mention the guy gives you a good 6 + innings a game. i agree chad should start but the first sign of struggle and yank him for someone else. hes the ace of the staff and its his spot to lose, and right now hes losing it…
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on True Blue LA
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
In Association With
Big League Stew - MLB - Yahoo! Sports
- The Juice: Nelson Cruz matches career high eight RBIs, Pujols stays hot in Seattle
- Benches clear at Fenway as Red Sox-Rays rivalry heats up
- Keeping good company: Albert Pujols becomes fourth-youngest player to hit 450 home runs
- Giancarlo Stanton misses cutoff man, and Logan Morrison is thankful he did (Video)
- Snoop Dogg delivers memorable first pitch at U.S. Cellular Field
