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The Matt Kemp Offseason Extravaganza Continues

The price of Bison just went up.  It has been quite the offseason for Matt Kemp.  He won a Gold Glove.  He won a Silver Slugger.  He is reportedly dating Rihanna.  And now it appears he is about to get paid.

Upon hearing that Matt Kemp is close to signing an extension with the Dodgers, my initial reaction was to jump for joy.  After all, locking up arguably their best player is a great step toward long-term success.  However, as Dylan Hernandez and Bill Shaikin from the Los Angeles Times report, the impending deal is only for two seasons:

Stewart speculated that the Dodgers didn't push to sign Kemp to a longer deal because of their uncertain ownership situation, but made it clear he wasn't told that by anyone with the club.

At the owners' meetings in Arizona today, Dodgers President Dennis Mannion said General Manager Ned Colletti has the freedom to sign Kemp to an even longer deal.

"That's Ned's negotiation to have," Mannion said. "He's got the latitude to come back with any sort of deal he wants."

Kemp is still three years away from free agency, so not only would this deal not buyout any free agent years but would also leave one year of arbitration on the table.  Still, it is a step in the right direction, at the very least.  For Kemp, he secures his first big payday, providing a new sense of security that could setup a man for the rest of his life.  For the Dodgers, I'll assume they are saving a bit of money, lest his arbitration award might rise with a great year in 2010.

The deal isn't done yet, and we don't have any details, but we have some comparable players to draw from, outfielders with similar service time to Kemp (three years).  I expanded the list from just center fielders to get a larger pool of players.  Stats are through each player's third year

Player PA HR SB Runs RBI BA/OBP/SLG OPS+ WAR Arb 1 Arb 2 Total
Matt Kemp 1801 61 85 267 242 .299/.346/.480 116 9.8 ??? ??? ???
Nick Markakis 1949 59 30 275 261 .299/.375/.476 122 12.1 $3.35m $7.1m $10.45m
Brad Hawpe 1650 63 8 197 256 .282/.373/.491 114 3.2 $3.925m $5.5m $9.425m
Curtis Granderson 2186 72 47 344 228 .280/.350/.493 118 15.9 $3.5m $5.5m $9m
Chris Young 1902 71 54 234 205 .235/.307/.438 86 3.6 $3.25m $5m $8.25m
Grady Sizemore 2364 78 79 378 259 .283/.369/.488 125 19.8 $3m $4.6m $7.6m

These comps have some caveats:  Granderson, Sizemore, and Young all signed their deals a year or two before this point, so their salaries could be adjusted upward; and I spread out Nick Markakis's $2.1 million signing bonus over the six years of his contract.  Kemp stacks up well with this group, and it seems clear if he signs a two-year deal, it could and probably should start at $10 million.

It's good to be Matt Kemp right now.

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Also from the LA Times

With good news comes some less than good news:

The Dodgers sold 23,900 season tickets last year, club president Dennis Mannion said today. They have sold 20,700 so far this year, he said, with customers facing a Friday renewal deadline.

“My concern is the number of unpaid accounts that haven’t canceled,” Mannion said at baseball’s quarterly owners’ meetings in Phoenix.

by Eric Stephen on Jan 13, 2010 3:17 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

I cancelled

had to agree with DT post the other day. While I love being a Season Ticket holder I found it is so much easier to buy tickets only for the games I actually plan to attend. Last Oct when I found I was able to buy tickets to any of the post season games I kind of lost the one real incentive I had to be a season ticket holder. Plus I can now go to more Press Box games:)

Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen

by Phil Gurnee on Jan 13, 2010 3:23 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Without any privileges, I didn’t find it difficult to get ok seats to playoff games. Now maybe WS tix will be a lot harder to get, but may also be out of my price range. Unfortunately we didn’t get to find out last year.

The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.

by David Young on Jan 13, 2010 3:38 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

The whole reason I got season tickets

was to ensure that I could get World Series tickets if it ever came around. Last year’s WS ticket prices were pretty darn shocking. I’ll probably give up my season tickets and get ina group of guys.

by prosellis on Jan 13, 2010 3:47 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Many will renew

either right before the deadline or after. It is human nature to wait, to be honest I’m shocked they have already received the money for 20,700. Most of those were probably credits from the postseason and they just let the Dodgers keep their money.

Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen

by Phil Gurnee on Jan 13, 2010 3:24 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I'll renew.

I’ve often found that if I schedule something, I’m much more likely to do it. It’s easy for me to say, oh, I should get Dodger tickets, but then I don’t always follow through and a season passes and I don’t go. This is only more true now that I have a kid. So by having the tickets and a date on the calendar, I have the incentive to actually go to the game, which I want to do.

The Ultimate Ned's Kind of Guy

by Humma Kavula on Jan 13, 2010 3:39 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

The Dodgers have yet to sign a major free agent this winter — and they let Orlando Hudson and Randy Wolf go without offering them salary arbitration — but Mannion said the Dodgers have not been flooded with complaints about the team’s offseason inactivity. “I can honestly tell you we’re not seeing any density of phone calls about the composition of the team,” he said. "We’ve got largely the same ballclub we had coming back.

Are there really a significant number of people left that would make a phone call to Dodger to criticize them for what they are and aren’t doing personnel-wise?

The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.

by David Young on Jan 13, 2010 3:34 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I think Andre is going to be a stable skill set for the next four years and I'd

give him a long term deal. Much more then Chad. In fact I’m not sure I’d give any pitcher a long term deal. So for me
Kemp, Andre and nobody else. I would sign Martin if he’d do 3/9 but I doubt he would.

For those who would not want to give Andre long term can you till me why?

Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen

by Phil Gurnee on Jan 13, 2010 3:25 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

I answered in other thread. But in a nutshell, the Dodgers already have Ethier through his prime. With the limited resources, I’d rather work out deals to keep the younger guys through their prime.

by Michael White on Jan 13, 2010 3:29 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

The only downside I see

is that long-term Ethier comes with a standard Boras surcharge. I would love to see Andre stick around, but I think he’s going to be way overpaid when his time comes.

by prosellis on Jan 13, 2010 3:30 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Isn’t Ethier a Boras kid?

by prosellis on Jan 13, 2010 3:32 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Nope

Nez Balelo of CAA

by Eric Stephen on Jan 13, 2010 3:33 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Well then

disregard all of the above. I was mistaken.

by prosellis on Jan 13, 2010 3:35 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

The only Boras client with the Dodgers at this time, as far as I know, is Manny.

The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.

by David Young on Jan 13, 2010 3:36 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I have no idea where I got the idea that Ethier was with Boras, but I’m glad he’s not. The less Boras a team has in life, the better off they are.

by prosellis on Jan 13, 2010 3:38 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

OTOH, the current world champions did ok with ARod, Teixeira, Damon and Nady all on the roster.

The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.

by David Young on Jan 13, 2010 3:47 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

That and another

180 million in salary might have more to do with it.

Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen

by Phil Gurnee on Jan 13, 2010 3:48 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

They are

the only ones who can play that game.

by prosellis on Jan 13, 2010 3:50 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Andre’s looking for movie roles too. :)

The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.

by David Young on Jan 13, 2010 3:36 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Eric how do you find that out?

I found plenty of stories linking Stewart to Kemp but none while trying to figure out his agent.

Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen

by Phil Gurnee on Jan 13, 2010 3:40 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Cot’s has CAA listed for Ethier, but not a specific name.

The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.

by David Young on Jan 13, 2010 3:42 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Ah, didn't think of Cot's.

Did you hear they are now part of Baseball Prospectus?

Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen

by Phil Gurnee on Jan 13, 2010 3:43 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Cot’s first, then Google

by Eric Stephen on Jan 13, 2010 3:43 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

This was the article I found on the hire

But the name rung a bell; I remember there being stories about Balelo & Ethier in the past

http://blogs.pe.com/prosports/2009/02/dodgers-ethier-talks-arbitrati.html

http://blogs.pe.com/prosports/2009/01/dodgers-ethier-and-martin-chan.html

by Eric Stephen on Jan 13, 2010 3:46 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Memory

I wonder what it is like to have a memory

Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen

by Phil Gurnee on Jan 13, 2010 3:46 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Probably like having our youth back.

The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.

by David Young on Jan 13, 2010 3:48 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Corner outfielder

with average to slightly below average defense (which isn’t likely to get better). I’d pass on the long term and let the open market determine his value. If it’s too high, then I’d look elsewhere. It’s a shame that management wasn’t able to put better players (or better contracts) around these players when they were being paid dirt cheap. We have made back to back NLCS, so you can’t kick and scream too much. But we easily could’ve done better.
vr, Xei

by Xeifrank on Jan 13, 2010 3:36 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Move him to 1B and jettison Loney?

by silverwidow on Jan 13, 2010 3:39 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Yes, he has trained there before.

by silverwidow on Jan 13, 2010 3:41 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Sure

He’s a lefty. First base isn’t terribly demanding. He worked there in spring training before 2008.

by Michael White on Jan 13, 2010 3:42 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Did he impress? After they talked about working him out there to see what their options were, we never heard about it again. Maybe he took to fielding hot grounders like Tennessee students take to Lane Kiffin these days.

The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.

by David Young on Jan 13, 2010 3:44 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

No idea

The issue was never pursued because A Jones sucked, so did Pierre and Torre finally realized it. The pupose was to give Ethier an additional chance to get on the field.

by Michael White on Jan 13, 2010 3:46 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

And Jeff Kent was still the 2B. Imagine the hissy fit Derek Lowe would have thrown having Kent plus a newbie 1B as the right side of his infield.

The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.

by David Young on Jan 13, 2010 3:51 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Playing 1st base is an easy transition

for a 3rd baseman, not so much for an outfielder. You don’t have any good fielding first baseman who were outfielders first. At least no one comes to my mind.

Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen

by Phil Gurnee on Jan 13, 2010 3:45 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

But is the difference between a good fielding first baseman and a bad fielding first baseman that big of a deal?

by Michael White on Jan 13, 2010 3:47 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Well

how many balls are a first baseman involved with compared to an outfielder? I’d say yes, especially if they have a scatter arm like Furcal that needs continual saving.

Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen

by Phil Gurnee on Jan 13, 2010 3:47 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I guess you the equation would go:

If Ethier defense/bat at first + Variable RF defense/bat at RF > Loney’s defense/bat at first + Ethier’s defense/bat at RT

then you do it.

by Michael White on Jan 13, 2010 3:50 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

As we said before

let us see how Loney progresses this year. I expect this to be a moot discussion by then.

Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen

by Phil Gurnee on Jan 13, 2010 3:51 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Pretty much

Especially since its not like we even have a RF in mind to make this equation even worth considering.

by Michael White on Jan 13, 2010 3:52 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Just for gits and shiggles

First basemen FA for 2011 (asterisk = club option for 2011)

First Basemen
Lance Berkman HOU *
Wes Helms FLA
Jason Giambi COL
Ross Gload FLA
Paul Konerko CWS
Derrek Lee CHC
David Ortiz BOS *
Lyle Overbay TOR
Carlos Pena TB
Albert Pujols STL *

Outfielders
Alfredo Amezaga FLA
Pat Burrell TB
Eric Byrnes ARI
Frank Catalanotto MIL
Carl Crawford TB
Coco Crisp KC
Michael Cuddyer MIN *
David DeJesus KC *
Adam Dunn WAS
Jermaine Dye CWS
Jody Gerut MIL
Jose Guillen KC
Willie Harris WAS
Brad Hawpe COL *
Geoff Jenkins PHI
Austin Kearns WAS
Jason Kubel MIN *
Magglio Ordonez DET *
Marcus Thames DET
Jayson Werth PHI

The Ultimate Ned's Kind of Guy

by Humma Kavula on Jan 13, 2010 3:55 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Either old

or to expensvie.

Which of those would be better then Loney/Andre headed into 2011?

Silver just suggested Trayvon or Pual with Kemp in RF and Andre at 1st base. Okay, who is the LF and how in what universe is that better then Kemp/Andre/Loney?

Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen

by Phil Gurnee on Jan 13, 2010 3:57 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Crawford is going to be a Yankee

so basically you have Jayson Werth and to be honest if we were to sign Jayson it would be with the idea of move Andre to LF and Jayson to RF not moving Andre to first to replace Loney.

Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen

by Phil Gurnee on Jan 13, 2010 3:59 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

So then to circle this back around to Silverwidows question

which is a good one even though I probably dismissed it too quickly, would you consider trying to reach a deal with Loney now? As he said, it could keep your costs down, nobody in the organization seems to be able to come up and replace Loney and the free agent market doesn’t look to be much relief either.

by Michael White on Jan 13, 2010 4:01 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Right.

That’s the big thing no one has mentioned: the Dodgers’ big hole for the 2011 season is left field, the position played by the Dodgers’ best hitter.

The Ultimate Ned's Kind of Guy

by Humma Kavula on Jan 13, 2010 4:01 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

2011 is likely too soon for Lambo to be ready for LF, or Kyle Russell in RF (with Andre sliding over to LF).

Does Eric Byrnes strike you as a Ned guy?

The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.

by David Young on Jan 13, 2010 4:03 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

When I say I'm worried that the Dodgers will not be competitive in 2011

that is what I’m talking about.

The Ultimate Ned's Kind of Guy

by Humma Kavula on Jan 13, 2010 4:05 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

You are not going to get me to start worrying about 2011 when we have not started 2010 yet.

Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen

by Phil Gurnee on Jan 13, 2010 4:12 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

(Sigh)

Too good to ever be true. An Ethier/Kemp/Werth outfield is from a dream I had once.

by prosellis on Jan 13, 2010 4:01 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I would take Carlos Pena

depending on price, and jettison Loney.

by BFDC on Jan 13, 2010 6:29 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

So then...

to make this plan work, we need a right fielder with a 750 OPS and a slightly above average glove?

by prosellis on Jan 13, 2010 3:55 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Didn’t Shawn Green play a solid 1B in 2004?

by silverwidow on Jan 13, 2010 3:48 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Only because he took a day off to atone for all his sins/errors.

The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.

by David Young on Jan 13, 2010 3:49 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

He was adequate

not sure if solid or good would apply.

Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen

by Phil Gurnee on Jan 13, 2010 3:49 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Right

But surely you would take Green circa his Dodgers days play first base while giving you only an adequate glove, compared to Loney at first giving you great fielding but mediocre hitting.

by Michael White on Jan 13, 2010 3:51 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I find the argument strange

If we moved Andre from RF to 1st to replace Loney then we have a huge hole in RF to fill so how did that help us? Did we sign somebody, if so, because I don’t see any big hitting, good fielder right fielders available.

I’m quite happy with Andre in RF and Loney at 1st base for the moment. Unless Prince Fielder shows up I don’t see many better VIABLE alternatives.

Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen

by Phil Gurnee on Jan 13, 2010 3:55 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

UZR says essentially average, Baseball Prospectus says just below average at 1B

by Eric Stephen on Jan 13, 2010 3:51 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Small sample size. :)

Does UZR account for the 1B handling throws from the infielders?

The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.

by David Young on Jan 13, 2010 3:54 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

There is a half a win (5 run) penalty for a player to go from RF to 1B. So in order for any move to make sense, Ethier’s first base defense vs his peers at 1B would need to be more than 5 runs better than Ethier’s defense in RF vs his peers there.

And there is also the part about talking a player into the position switch.
vr, Xei

by Xeifrank on Jan 13, 2010 3:56 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

and like Phil said, you would really only do this if you had a very good RF replacement. I think we are all just thinking out loud here, nobody is seriously considering Ethier to 1B.
vr, Xei

by Xeifrank on Jan 13, 2010 3:59 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Pujols started as a LF

And now he’s the best fielding 1B in the league in addition to being the most feared in the league.

by Nofatmike on Jan 13, 2010 11:10 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, but

he also played 3rd a whole bunch as well, so he already had some infileder skills.

by Bob Hendley on Jan 14, 2010 6:05 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

As Bob said

he was also a 3rd baseman and came up the minors as a 3rd baseman not a LF.

Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen

by Phil Gurnee on Jan 14, 2010 8:15 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

That's been my idea for a while

Of course, this only makes sense if you have somebody who is a better fielder than Ethier in RF and a better hitter than Loney

by Michael White on Jan 13, 2010 3:41 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Even Fangraphs (Jack Moore) couched that a bit though:

we can conclude that Ethier is probably a below average fielder, but probably not as bad as 2009 would suggest. A conservative projection would probably call Ethier a -3 to -5 run fielder in RF going forward.

by Eric Stephen on Jan 13, 2010 4:15 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, that 2007 squad was ugly.

by silverwidow on Jan 13, 2010 3:39 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

You guys make it sound like 30

home run right fielders are a dime a dozen which is not the case these days. When you say replace what are you talking about?

Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen

by Phil Gurnee on Jan 13, 2010 3:42 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I mean

look at the Giant outfield, they got that way because they did not develop anyone and couldn’t afford anyone good.

Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen

by Phil Gurnee on Jan 13, 2010 3:44 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Hopefully

you are not stooping us down to the Giants or Royals level. :)
vr, Xei

by Xeifrank on Jan 13, 2010 4:01 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Not discounting the 30HR

just realizing there is more to a players value than how many HRs he hits. Position he plays, defense, baserunning etc…
vr, Xei

by Xeifrank on Jan 13, 2010 4:02 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I saw a lot of girls in the RF pavilion hollering at Andre that couldn’t possibly have been attracted by the AYCE aspect of that ticket. Does Andre help move tickets and merchandise?

The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.

by David Young on Jan 13, 2010 4:05 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

aren't the seats

new the first base dugout more expensive than the ones in the AYCE section?
vr, Xei

by Xeifrank on Jan 13, 2010 4:15 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Its the girls quotient that is relevant. If Andre is bringing in fans that normally wouldn’t come, you need to find a way to make money off of that. :)

by Tripon on Jan 13, 2010 4:19 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

In that case Joel Piniero should be seriously considered

I recall he was quite a fan-favorite amongst the ladies when he played for the Mariners.

by Michael White on Jan 13, 2010 4:21 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

yes

… but won’t you make more money selling seats to girls in a more expensive section?
vr, Xei

by Xeifrank on Jan 13, 2010 4:40 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Apparently the prevalent rear-view from RF is highly desirable, more so than the profile angle at 1B.

The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.

by David Young on Jan 13, 2010 5:27 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Judging by an informal, non-scientific survey of female members of my family, Andre Ethier does in fact help move tickets and merch :)

by Eric Stephen on Jan 13, 2010 4:17 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Who doesn’t move tickets and merch? Joe Torre? :)

by Tripon on Jan 13, 2010 4:19 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Jamie Carroll or Nick Green

Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen

by Phil Gurnee on Jan 13, 2010 4:20 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

El Guapo himself!

The Ultimate Ned's Kind of Guy

by Humma Kavula on Jan 13, 2010 4:30 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Not sure that Ethier would want a contract that buys out any of his FA years. He should have $8M in salary over 2009-2010 next so the hugest risk (in terms of dollars difference) is already removed. I doubt he wants to have the FA option any later than when he is already scheduled to get it.

The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.

by David Young on Jan 13, 2010 3:40 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

He’ll get something like $12-13m over the next two years.

by Eric Stephen on Jan 13, 2010 3:47 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I like your caption, but I thought maybe he was describing something to Rhianna in the stands.

The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.

by David Young on Jan 13, 2010 4:10 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Jon Paul Morosi of Fox Sports

If the Dodgers don’t sign free agent starter Joel Pineiro, they are open to bringing back right-hander Vicente Padilla, one major league source said Wednesday

by Eric Stephen on Jan 13, 2010 4:41 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Slap me with a stupid stick

but upon seeing that my first reaction was that I’d rather have Padilla.

Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen

by Phil Gurnee on Jan 13, 2010 4:49 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Me too, especially with the different contracts

by Eric Stephen on Jan 13, 2010 4:51 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

He can ask all he wants, but he doesn’t have the demand that Pineiro does

by Eric Stephen on Jan 13, 2010 4:53 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

BTW we need an official TBLA “Stupid Stick” this season. :)

by Eric Stephen on Jan 13, 2010 4:51 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

damn that sucks

unless its padilla for 1 year 3 mill plus incentives..

otherwise no pienrios on 2 yeear deals please

by matthewmafa on Jan 13, 2010 4:50 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Bobblehead lineup

From the Dodgers:

#Dodgers announce 2010 bobblehead lineup: Andre Ethier (5/18), Jonathan Broxton (6/8), James Loney (7/20) and Matt Kemp (8/17)

by Eric Stephen on Jan 13, 2010 4:45 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

No Mas Manny

Don’t you find that odd?

Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen

by Phil Gurnee on Jan 13, 2010 4:48 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

phasing him out

by silverwidow on Jan 13, 2010 4:49 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Odds just moved up

that he will be moved before the trading deadline.

Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen

by Phil Gurnee on Jan 13, 2010 4:50 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Hopefully for something useful, like a young power hitting 3B.

by silverwidow on Jan 13, 2010 4:50 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Orioles willing to trade Josh Bell:)

Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen

by Phil Gurnee on Jan 13, 2010 4:51 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

why do that

we have casey blake and blake dewitt and pedro baez and “depth at that position”

by matthewmafa on Jan 13, 2010 4:51 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Sarcasm

not used to that from you, your usually so serious

Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen

by Phil Gurnee on Jan 13, 2010 4:52 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Really?

Did Silverwidow hack your account? :)

#jumptoconclusions

by Eric Stephen on Jan 13, 2010 4:52 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

That was my first thought

Josh – Ned, we are putting together the bobblehead schedule, here are the players and the dates we have planned.
Ned – I’d scratch Manny, not sure if he will still be with us on Aug 8th and I’d hate to see you with egg on your face.
Josh – How about Kemp
Ned – yup, we are about to sign him to a long term deal

Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen

by Phil Gurnee on Jan 13, 2010 4:55 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

if thats how it gonna go

then thats bad news for ethier…

they are giving out his bobble head so everyone has their lasting memories before he is gone!

by matthewmafa on Jan 13, 2010 4:57 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

what i find more odd is NO kershaw?!?!

wtf kershaw might be the biggest crowd atttracter and theres no kershaw bobble head

by matthewmafa on Jan 13, 2010 4:51 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

He’s just waiting his turn in line

by Eric Stephen on Jan 13, 2010 4:57 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I haven't got the feeling the Dodger

crowd are that into Clayton yet.

Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen

by Phil Gurnee on Jan 13, 2010 4:52 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

the big strikeout games in dodger stadium

the 5 or 6 in a row to strike out in a row to start the game …

who are the dodger crowd into then? besides manny lol

by matthewmafa on Jan 13, 2010 4:54 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Kemp and Ethier for sure are more popular than Kershaw, and I don’t think it’s a stretch to say Loney is too

by Eric Stephen on Jan 13, 2010 4:55 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

REALLY?/??

loney?? and by popular what do you mean tho? like crowd cheers for them? they get standing ovations? what makes them more popular then others?

by matthewmafa on Jan 13, 2010 4:56 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Just based on crowd behavior

and general fan talk. Most general fans associate Clayton with not having Doc. Hate to say it but most general fans are basically Plashcke.

Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen

by Phil Gurnee on Jan 13, 2010 4:57 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

See: huge cheers, occasional standing ovations for Mr. Pierre

by Eric Stephen on Jan 13, 2010 4:58 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I thought Plaschke fans hated Billingsley.

by silverwidow on Jan 13, 2010 4:58 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

They do

and you don’t see him on the bobblehead schedule do you?

Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen

by Phil Gurnee on Jan 13, 2010 4:59 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Also, fans voted for Joe Beimel to get a bobblehead

by Eric Stephen on Jan 13, 2010 4:59 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Although that was largely due to Mr. Convicted Felon and his internet campaign :)

by Eric Stephen on Jan 13, 2010 5:01 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

The average fan doesn’t know much about Clayton or the significance of his ability. I’ve been following him since he was drafted and am only more excited about Kemp than Clayton.

by Ivdown on Jan 13, 2010 5:12 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I’d go about 70% that Kershaw will be a better player than Kemp, but I’ve fallen in love with the way Kemp plays and the potential he still has. Kershaw is just downright filthy and is on the path to being the next great Dodger ace. I just really hope we’ll have both guys for the next decade.

by Ivdown on Jan 13, 2010 5:15 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Wha? They were popping like crazy during the division clincher vs. Colorado.

by silverwidow on Jan 13, 2010 4:54 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

yeah!!!

thats what i was confused about..

by matthewmafa on Jan 13, 2010 4:55 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Gagne, Fernando and Nomo were the exceptions

In the last 30 years, you would hard pressed to find a “popular” pitcher on the LA Dodgers, that is one who captured the average fan’s attention. Sure, there have been some very good pitchers but very few that would make someone who didn’t really follow the team to come out and watch.

Orel was probably there perhaps in 1988 and afterwards but did people really like Ramon Martinez, Kevin Brown, Derek Lowe, or Brad Penny, all who pitched very well wearing Dodger Blue.

by bhsportsguy on Jan 13, 2010 5:03 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

I would say Orel reached those heights after 1988.

by Eric Stephen on Jan 13, 2010 5:04 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

duly noted in my last paragraph

but I probably should have made that clearer.

by bhsportsguy on Jan 13, 2010 5:05 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Also, fans flocked to see Brian Bohanon and James Baldwin :)

by Eric Stephen on Jan 13, 2010 5:07 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I actually attended one Baldwin start, his second for LA, I think. 8 IP, 1 R (a solo Sammy Sosa shot*), win. Pretty rare sighting as it turned out.

The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.

by David Young on Jan 13, 2010 5:33 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I have always liked pitchers more than hitters. Orel was my first favorite Dodger.

by silverwidow on Jan 13, 2010 5:10 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Which Pedro? Martinez and Astacio never gave up HR to McGwire as Dodgers

by Eric Stephen on Jan 13, 2010 5:14 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

noo way

then damn he was wearing a expos jersey

by matthewmafa on Jan 13, 2010 5:14 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Compared to Nick

Big Bison fan, but I must say I was surprised to see how well he stacks up against Markakis, who seems to have a much more polished game. I guess its the additional .025 OBP.

by Bob Hendley on Jan 13, 2010 5:14 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Markakis is much better at taking walks

I think Kemp is improving a lot though.

by Ivdown on Jan 13, 2010 5:16 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Markakis did tail off in 2009, but I still think he’s really good though.

Non-intentional BB
2007: 56
2008: 92
2009: 56

by Eric Stephen on Jan 13, 2010 5:18 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

2009

NIBB / PA
Markakis: 7.9%
Kemp: 6.9%

by Eric Stephen on Jan 13, 2010 5:19 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Why does IBB factor into OBP? That’s not a skill, per se.

by silverwidow on Jan 13, 2010 5:21 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Pitchers could fear you more

meaning you are good enough to make them want to put you on rather than pitch to you. In Kemp’s case, it was probly to get to the pitcher most of the time though when he hit 8th.

by Ivdown on Jan 13, 2010 5:21 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

but!!!

kemp was good when hitting 7th and 8th… when hitting in the other spots… his plate disipline was really really bad if i rememeber correctly

by matthewmafa on Jan 13, 2010 5:22 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

There was some difference

Spot / PA / NIBB /
1st 5 0 0.0
2nd 59 3 5.1%
3rd 6 0 0.0%
4th 120 8 6.7%
5th 74 4 5.4%
6th 106 6 5.7%
7th 194 16 8.2%
8th 85 8 9.4%
9th 12 1 8.3%

by Eric Stephen on Jan 13, 2010 5:27 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah I knew he declined a bit since 08

But I just think it was a temporary set back. How many non-intentional BBs did Kemp have this year?

by Ivdown on Jan 13, 2010 5:21 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

One of these things is not like the other ♫♫♫

Maybe 92 will turn out to be the outlier.

The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.

by David Young on Jan 13, 2010 5:35 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Very cryptic Tweet

from Will Carroll

Big news pending for mets. Doesn’t sound good

by Eric Stephen on Jan 13, 2010 5:30 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

nvm

will carol is injury expert

by matthewmafa on Jan 13, 2010 5:43 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I'm going to guess that

Carlos Beltran or Jose Reyes need surgery.

Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen

by Phil Gurnee on Jan 13, 2010 5:49 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Probably Beltran

since he’s on one of my teams.

Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen

by Phil Gurnee on Jan 13, 2010 5:50 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

From TheRopolitans:

RUMOR: Beltran out for 2010 with microfracture surgery

by Eric Stephen on Jan 13, 2010 6:05 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Wow, that would be incredibly horrible for the Mets. I also kinda like Beltran, and it sucks to see such a great player out with injuries.

by Ivdown on Jan 13, 2010 6:26 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Joel Sherman / NY Post

Trying to get 2d confirmation, but hear that Beltran had microfracture knee surgery today without #Mets permission

Wow…injury and controversy!

by Eric Stephen on Jan 13, 2010 6:37 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

More Sherman:

#Mets are definitely claiming Beltran procedure done without their blessing, and are threatening some form of action

by Eric Stephen on Jan 13, 2010 7:15 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

The mlb.com story doesn’t contain the word “microfracture”, nor anything about the Mets not knowing.

Beltran elected to have the surgery after experiencing a worsening of osteoarthritis of the right knee during the offseason. The club said Beltran didn’t have any pain following the end of the season and into the early offseason, but symptoms returned and it became too painful to continue his conditioning to get ready for Spring Training.
From medicine.net:
Osteoarthritis is a type of arthritis that is caused by the breakdown and eventual loss of the cartilage of one or more joints. Osteoarthritis is also known as degenerative arthritis.

The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.

by David Young on Jan 13, 2010 8:00 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Will Carroll tweeted that the surgeon happened to be the guy who invented microfracture surgery or the procedure, and that’s where the confusion came from.

by Eric Stephen on Jan 13, 2010 8:31 PM PST via mobile up reply actions   0 recs

and/or Joel Sherman is an idiot.

The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.

by David Young on Jan 13, 2010 8:37 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Unspoken for Lords

Are there any first-ballot candidates still waiting to be written about and unclaimed?

The Ultimate Ned's Kind of Guy

by Humma Kavula on Jan 13, 2010 5:32 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Yes

I’ll update tomorrow but wanted to let the Kemp story run since it is the first we’ve had some current Dodger news. Shockingly no one has picked Koufax or Drysdale. Feeling the flavor of writing and wanted to do more eh? Or was it the positive feedback that stoked the ego and you need more? Just remember the first time you spend a bunch of time writing something you think is interesting and all they want to do is talk about Matt Kemps girlfriend your ego has to be big enough to handle rejection.

Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen

by Phil Gurnee on Jan 13, 2010 5:49 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

a little of both :)

Believe me, all I get all day long at work is rejection, so this was a nice change of pace. Everyone was very, very kind today, and I’m very grateful.

The Ultimate Ned's Kind of Guy

by Humma Kavula on Jan 13, 2010 5:57 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Joe (Philly)


Price or Kershaw in 2010?
Jim Callis
  (2:49 PM)


Kershaw.

by Tripon on Jan 13, 2010 6:52 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

damn

this question gets asked so many time… so is this recent or a old one? cause he always get this question

by matthewmafa on Jan 13, 2010 6:55 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

posted today.

by Tripon on Jan 13, 2010 6:59 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I don’t think Price belongs in the same sentence as Kershaw anymore.

Clayton’s natural rival is Brett Anderson.

by silverwidow on Jan 13, 2010 7:30 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

In midst of Joe Posnanski's blog entry on receiving a phone call from Mark McGwire

there is a footnote about three page scrolls in with a pretty cool Jim Murray story:

*When I’m nervous — something that doesn’t happen much anymore (thank God) — I tend to babble. I know I’ve written the story here about the time I met my all-time hero Jim Murray at the Masters. I was the columnist in Augusta at the time, and he came down for what I’m pretty sure was his last Masters. I am not the type to approach my heroes, but I had to do this, so I walked up to Jim Murray and tapped him on the shoulder. He turned to me, and I remember he had these big coke bottle glasses, and this kind face, and I UNLEASHED on him, a torrent of praise and esteem and nonsense — a whole lot of "Mr. Murray, um, I’m just really a big fan, Mr. Murray, and Mr. Murray, I really got into this business because, I mean, not that I could ever be like you Mr. Murray, but because, you know, you are so great Mr. Murray and I just, Mr. Murray, if I could only write like one-tenth of the way you write, Mr. Murray …"
And I remember him just looking at me, patiently, waiting for some sort of point to come out, something he could digest, something, anything. And looking back, I think I realized the horror of it all even as I was talking to him. I’m quite sure that my mind was saying, "You need to shut up now. OK, shut up now. You don’t even know what you’re saying now. He thinks you’re a madman. You need to stop talking now."
But I kept going and going and going. And finally, when I had run out of breath, I wrapped it up somehow. And Jim Murray put his hand on my shoulder, and he gave me the most patient smile imaginable — a father to son smile — and he said: "Next time, use fewer words."

The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.

by David Young on Jan 13, 2010 7:25 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

I'm glad it ended that way

because when I was reading the column today, I was afraid Jim Murray was going to tell him to buzz off. Man I miss the LA Times of my youth even though I expect Murray would not have been very welcome to the sabre world.

Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen

by Phil Gurnee on Jan 13, 2010 7:49 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Asked why he advised Kemp to explore a multiyear deal with the Dodgers, Stewart replied, “The ballclub is really, really motivated to do it. Any time the club shows it’s motivated to do something for the player, it’s a good thing. Second, you always want to get a young player an opportunity to put good money in his pocket.

Matt Harrington needed an agent like this. It’s an old story, but one that I never got out of my head.

The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.

by David Young on Jan 13, 2010 7:49 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Last year I got tires at Costco, and it reminded me of Harrington.

by Eric Stephen on Jan 13, 2010 7:54 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Jock mechanics always make me think of Mark Eaton. Imagine walking into the garage and seeing that guy rolling out from under your car.

The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.

by David Young on Jan 13, 2010 8:01 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Harrington and his family did get insurance and got over a million dollar payout out of it. He works at the costco because he can, not because he has to.

by Tripon on Jan 13, 2010 8:11 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

You can’t live your life from the 20s until death on $1,000,000; that’s not enough. And we don’t know how that money is being paid out. I believe Harrington needs a job. Costco might even provide benefits.

The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.

by David Young on Jan 13, 2010 8:15 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Kemp, Andre, Brox & Loney

RT @DodgersNews: Dodgers consider multiyear pacts for stars http://is.gd/6ej9q

by Eric Stephen on Jan 13, 2010 8:28 PM PST via mobile reply actions   0 recs

I still don’t get the non-billingsley love. A rival team reads that, and probably thinks they can get Billingsley cheaper than otherwise.

by Tripon on Jan 13, 2010 8:39 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

In that story, Gurnick has the negotiations for Kemp as between Stewart and Kim Ng. Also he writes:

Broxton’s agent, B.B. Abbott, said he’s discussing several scenarios for the closer with Ng. Abbott pointed out that multiyear deals include discounts for the club in return for the added risk.

The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.

by David Young on Jan 13, 2010 8:47 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

B.B. Abbott is a great name.

by Eric Stephen on Jan 13, 2010 9:36 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Great, someone at Dodgers.com said they wouldn’t even give Broxton a one-year deal.

Brilliant. I bet they’ve been watching baseball for a long time. Absolutely genius stuff right there.

by silverwidow on Jan 13, 2010 9:45 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Doesn't surprise me

The memory of Broxton for most casual fans is him “choking” in two consecutive postseasons. Naturally this makes him horrible and not worth keeping.

by EMDarrow on Jan 13, 2010 9:51 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

There really is a lot of good info in that article
  • Kemp closest to deal
  • Billingsley close to a one-year deal
  • Loney offered 2-year deal, prefers one-year deal
  • Broxton has a lot of multi-year deals in the works; his agent notes a discount would be given for multi-year security
  • Ethier not close to deal, but talks continue

    I agree with lvdown and Humma below…longer deals would be great, but at least the 2-year deals are something

by Eric Stephen on Jan 13, 2010 10:14 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Kemp and Broxton sound flexible; Ethier and Loney are the hard-asses. Hope stuff works out.

by silverwidow on Jan 13, 2010 10:16 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

The thing I like about the short deals

is that it might keep things very friendly with the players and the team, making them more comfortable to accept an extension down the road.

by Ivdown on Jan 14, 2010 9:09 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

+1.

I mean, I suppose 2 year deals are a step in the right direction. They take arbitration hearings out of the picture, which reduces the chance for acrimony, and that’s good. And if any of these guys explodes and becomes a superstar, the Dodgers get a bargain. But let’s lock up that first year or two of free agency.

The Ultimate Ned's Kind of Guy

by Humma Kavula on Jan 13, 2010 10:11 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Right, our goal with these signings is really to try to extend the time frame for this talent from 2012 to 2013 and maybe even 2014.

by Tripon on Jan 13, 2010 10:23 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I thought this was cool

David Cameron (of Fangraphs and USS Mariner) tweeted this earlier…Mariners’ special assistant to the GM Tony Blengino explains WAR on radio. It is a long explanation, but also very measured as he tries to explain the “stat of the week” to the layperson. Very cool that a major league executive is doing this.

I believe it starts at about the 25-minute mark.

http://www.mynorthwest.com/?nid=577&a=13941&p=32&n=Hot%20Stove%20League

by Eric Stephen on Jan 13, 2010 10:59 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Maybe ‘FIP’ and ‘WAR’ will be official in the next 5/10 years?

by Julio Nievas on Jan 14, 2010 12:21 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

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2010 Dodger Payroll

Pos No Player 2010 Salary
C 55 Martin $5,050,000
1B 7 Loney $3,100,000
2B 33 DeWitt $410,000*
3B 23 Blake $6,000,000
SS 15 Furcal $8,500,000
LF 99 Manny $7,267,760
CF 27 Kemp $4,000,000
RF 16 Ethier $6,000,000

2B/3B 14 Carroll $1,350,000
2B/3B/1B 3 Belliard $825,000
C 12 Ausmus $850,000
OF 5 Johnson $800,000
SS 60 Hu $405,000*

SP 22 Kershaw $425,000*
SP 58 Billingsley $3,850,000
SP 18 Kuroda $14,100,000
SP 44 Padilla $4,025,000
SP 50 Stults $405,000*

CL 51 Broxton $4,000,000
LHP 52 Sherrill $4,500,000
LHP 56 Kuo $950,000
RHP 67 Troncoso $425,000*
RHP 54 Belisario $425,000*
RHP 31 McDonald $425,000*
RHP 68 Monasterios $460,000*

Pierre $4,000,000
Andruw $3,600,000
Schmidt $2,000,000
Wolf $2,000,000
Hudson $1,440,000
Nomar $1,250,000
Ohman $200,000
Zerpa $35,000
Hoffmann ($50,000)

Others on 40-man roster (total: 39)
RHP 37 Haeger  
RHP 73 Link  
RHP 47 Wade
C 9 Ellis  
C 71 May  
SS 87 DeJesus  
OF 75 Paul
OF 17 Repko $500,000
RHP 64 Guerra**  
RHP 74 Jansen**  
LHP 59 Leach**
RHP 49 Schlichting**  
LHP 57 Elbert**  
OF 62 Robinson**  

Totals $93,522,760
 
Red = arbitration
Asterisk (*) = estimated
** = currently in minor league camp
For more detailed information, click here.

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