Jonathan Broxton & Street Cred
by Eric Stephen on Jan 14, 2010 7:00 AM PST
in Los Angeles Dodgers Payroll
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PrintOf the many newsworthy items in Ken Gurnick's column on MLB.com regarding the Dodgers pursuing deals for their eight remaining arbitration-eligible players was Jonathan Broxton's agent expressing an interest in a long-term deal:
Broxton's agent, B.B. Abbott, said he's discussing several scenarios for the closer with Ng. Abbott pointed out that multiyear deals include discounts for the club in return for the added risk.
"There's a price to pay for guaranteed money," he said. "If multiyear contracts work, it's for young players like Jonathan who is big, strong, 25, and hasn't been overused."
Broxton made a total of $1.975 million in 2009, including incentives, in his first year of salary arbitration eligibility. Coming into last season, Broxton basically had just half a season experience as a full-time closer, so he couldn't quite vault into that premium category of relievers with more closing experience. For instance, Jonathan Papelbon made $6.25 million and Bobby Jenks made $5.6 million in 2009 (thanks to Cot's Baseball Contracts), each with the same three years service time last year as Broxton.
Now, Broxton has another full season as closer under his belt, so he will likely receive more than just a standard arbitration raise, as he jumps up a class into the upper echelon of relievers. Looking at comparable closers at their time of four years service time, where Broxton is now, one name stood out to me as a very similar player to Big Jon: Huston Street.
Street had four years of service time last offseason, and signed a one-year deal with Colorado for $4.5 million. On a one-year deal, that is the number that Broxton should shoot for, and here's why (using Street's stats through 2008):
- Broxton's ERA is 2.92, compared to 2.88 for Street
- Broxton's adjusted ERA (ERA+) is 146, just a shade under Street's 149
- Broxton's Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) is 2.54, while Street is at ~2.91
- Broxton has a lead in Wins Above Replacement (WAR), 8.6 to 7.0
- Baseball Prospectus has a stat called WXRL, defined as "Expected wins added over a replacement level pitcher, adjusted for level of opposing hitters," and Broxton's 11.824 is eerily similar to Street's 11.856
Street does have the advantage in saves, 94 to 55, since he has been closing for most of his career. But Broxton stacks up quite nicely in comparison to the Rockies' closer, so something in the $4-4.5 million range sounds about right. You can knock a little off that salary as a discount should Broxton gain the security of a long-term deal, but we should have a good idea of Broxton's 2010 salary.
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Apparently Adam LaRoche signed with the D-Backs for between $4 and $5 million.
He apparently had turned down 2/$17.5m from the Giants, but I’m finding that rumor hard to believe.
C Snyder / Montero
1B LaRoche
2B K.Johnson
3B Reynolds
SS Drew
LF Jackson
CF Young
RF Upton
by Eric Stephen on Jan 14, 2010 9:04 AM PST up reply actions
Additionally, they will be getting Webb back this season, so I can see the Dbacks having a bit of a bounce back. I don’t know that they will challenge for the division but they will probably be competitive.
Yeah, their bullpen is going to be a problem. Though that gives me an idea. Would it be worthwhile to explore a three-way deal with Ariz and Cincy where the main pieces were Harang to LA, Drew to Cincy, and Sherrill to Ariz? Now obviously there would be money and other players involved to make it happen, but would this be worth it to us? Would the other teams do it?
I can't imagine they do
Trade works for Cinci and LA though, that’s for sure. Especially if the Dodgers are getting cash to cover half of Sherril’s salary.
by Michael White on Jan 14, 2010 9:22 AM PST up reply actions
Upton and Reynolds scare the crap out of me
But the rest of that lineup is nothing more than average right now. Let’s hope it stays that way.
Two studs and a bunch of average
is about what we have isn’t it? Except we’d be hard pressed to say average for 2nd and catcher. Montero may not even be average but batter then average. If Webb comes back to pre surgery levels and Upton continues his progression they could easily compete with us this year. There bullpen might be the achilles heal but they could still upgrade that fairly cheaply.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
We best keep hoping
that fast Chris Young continues to struggle because if he ever lived up to his potential that would be trouble. A warning flag to remember that locking up your young players is not always the best route.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
Arizona’s 1B hit a combined .228/.321/.396, the worst AVG, OBP, and SLG in the NL (only Texas and Oakland were worse in MLB). LaRoche is a huge upgrade for them.
by Eric Stephen on Jan 14, 2010 9:20 AM PST up reply actions
at least he will be once
April/May are in the books. He’s just like Beltre in that regard.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
And if he stays healthy
He’s definitely a big upgrade and yet for whatever reason this doesn’t scare me that much. Still don’t understand why he turned down bigger money in SF, except either that rumor was wrong or he really didn’t want to play for the Giants. Good for you, Adam!
There's no need to fear, Underdog is here! / Broncos/Dodgers fan in Niners/Raiders/Giants country, and damned proud of it.
Huge?
They were so bad at 1B last year due to the injuries. I had Conor Jackson pencilled in at 1B and he’s definitely worth more playing at 1B than LaRoche imho. The Diamondbacks strength is their outfield depth and they are just adding Conor Jackson to the glut of outfielders and pushing a very young and talented Parra to the bench. I think this is only a very slight upgrade for the Diamondbacks, mostly due to the added depth and injury insurance at 1B.
vr, Xei
I answered some questions from Ed Chigliak from our friends at Federal Baseball about Orlando Hudson.
http://www.federalbaseball.com/2010/1/14/1250720/washington-nationals-3-questions#storyjump
Sweet
Another one of the benefits of the SBNation format, there are people all over this network with great insight into different players/teams/managers, etc.
by Michael White on Jan 14, 2010 9:38 AM PST up reply actions
They're not yet posted
on Baseball Think Factory (http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/), but Dan Szymborski tweeted that he just finished his ZiPS projections for the Dodgers, and they are looking good:
Just finished Dodger pitchers – ZiPS loves some of ’em. Broxton best ERA+ so far, thinks Lindblom could contri. now
All-in-all, 31 of 34 pitchers below 5 (Durbin, Monasterios, Ely)
What's the last comment mean?
Those names are among the only ones not ranking out well?
There's no need to fear, Underdog is here! / Broncos/Dodgers fan in Niners/Raiders/Giants country, and damned proud of it.
Those are the only pitchers with a projected ERA of 5+
by Eric Stephen on Jan 14, 2010 9:53 AM PST up reply actions
Ah got it
And yeah I’d forgotten LA had signed JD Durbin. He’s just camp fodder and AAA meat most likely unless something miraculous happens. But good to hear that overall.
There's no need to fear, Underdog is here! / Broncos/Dodgers fan in Niners/Raiders/Giants country, and damned proud of it.
We had him last season (AA & AAA), but I’m not sure if he re-signed another deal.
by Eric Stephen on Jan 14, 2010 10:01 AM PST up reply actions
He has the SF numbers up
and even Russ Ortiz who was a Giant when he did them is under 5.00. The Indians are the Anti-Dodgers. They have only pitchers with a projected ERA below 5.0.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
Anyone know if the Dodgers are gonna watch Sheets throw on Tuesday?
I’d be happy if they at least gave him a look.
There's no need to fear, Underdog is here! / Broncos/Dodgers fan in Niners/Raiders/Giants country, and damned proud of it.
I sent an email to some people, but I don’t expect to get an answer back :)
by Eric Stephen on Jan 14, 2010 10:48 AM PST up reply actions
You’d think one of the seven Special Assistants to the GM would be available. Louisiana is not the worst place to be in January.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
by David Young on Jan 14, 2010 12:37 PM PST up reply actions
What would be the point
if he throws well, we couldn’t afford him, he if doesn’t we wouldn’t want him.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Jan 14, 2010 12:51 PM PST up reply actions
Side trip to the French Quarter with a special chauffeur?
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
by David Young on Jan 14, 2010 12:54 PM PST up reply actions
Surprised?
Isn’t Merkin Valdez actually a pretty decent reliever? Guess the Giants couldn’t find someone else to DFA after bringing in Huff n’Puff. (Valdez was DFA’d today.)
There's no need to fear, Underdog is here! / Broncos/Dodgers fan in Niners/Raiders/Giants country, and damned proud of it.
Oops sorry
Ignore the parenthetical there. I accidentally copied and pasted my comment from DT. If this was the TV guide there would be a little® after it. ;-)
There's no need to fear, Underdog is here! / Broncos/Dodgers fan in Niners/Raiders/Giants country, and damned proud of it.
“What are you doing material now? You try it on them and then later for us.”
by Michael White on Jan 14, 2010 11:08 AM PST up reply actions
He's a two timer
and we are the ugly sister he can always fall back on when things get slow with the good looking one.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Jan 14, 2010 11:10 AM PST up reply actions
Given the crap software the LAT uses, is DT the trustworthy, reliable, but aging wife, and TBLA the flashy young distraction?
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
by David Young on Jan 14, 2010 12:42 PM PST up reply actions
Sound good
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Jan 14, 2010 12:52 PM PST up reply actions
I'm the Tiger Woods of Dodger blog commenting
I’m getting it left and right, and you can’t stop me!
There's no need to fear, Underdog is here! / Broncos/Dodgers fan in Niners/Raiders/Giants country, and damned proud of it.
His 5.1 BB/9 would fit right in with the Dodgers. When the Giants traded Russ Ortiz that got two things that come in patches, Merkin and (Damien) Moss.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
by David Young on Jan 14, 2010 12:41 PM PST up reply actions
BTW
While researching the proper cutoff for the Lords of the Ravine I settled on 300 games. Much to my surprise, Mr. Broxton has already pitched in 300 games for the Dodgers, making him one of only 12 pitchers to do so. Also to my surprise Mr. Broxton has the best ERA+ anyone who has pitched in 300 games. Also it was interesting that no one who had pitched in at least 300 games had an ERA+ < then 100. Helping to prove that if you pitch alot it is because you are good.
Player ERA+ G Age GS CG SHO GF SV IP H ER BB SO ERA OPS+
Jonathan Broxton 146 308 21-25 0 0 0 133 55 317.0 241 103 126 420 2.92 60
Sandy Koufax 135 335 22-30 286 133 38 27 9 2119.2 1572 622 709 2214 2.64 67
Ron Perranoski 131 457 25-36 1 0 0 273 101 766.2 708 218 290 461 2.56 88
Tom Niedenfuer 127 310 21-27 0 0 0 169 64 440.1 375 135 145 350 2.76 82
Jim Brewer 126 474 26-37 18 1 1 302 125 822.1 630 239 298 672 2.62 79
Don Drysdale 117 459 21-32 424 156 45 24 6 3112.0 2792 1029 763 2283 2.98 86
Orel Hershiser 116 353 24-41 309 65 24 19 5 2180.2 1976 755 667 1456 3.12 85
Burt Hooton 113 322 25-34 265 61 22 22 6 1861.1 1659 649 540 1042 3.14 82
Don Sutton 110 550 21-43 533 156 52 12 5 3816.1 3291 1311 996 2696 3.09 83
Fernando Valenzue 107 331 19-29 320 107 29 5 2 2348.2 2099 864 915 1759 3.31 89
Claude Osteen 106 339 25-33 335 100 34 2 0 2396.2 2350 822 568 1162 3.09 97
Charlie Hough 102 401 22-32 16 0 0 222 60 799.2 641 311 417 536 3.50 90
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 1/14/2010.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
Poor Gagne, two games shy of 300 (but still with a lower ERA+, 124, than JB)
by Eric Stephen on Jan 14, 2010 10:52 AM PST up reply actions
Yup
at 250 games JB is still tops. At 200 games Saito takes over and it is all Saito from that point on.
Still isn’t it amazing how young JB is and how he’s already been in 300 games and is sitting on top of an incredible group of talent. Sure most of them are starters but given the amount of games, you could make a case that JB has been the best relief pitcher in the history of the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Jan 14, 2010 10:55 AM PST up reply actions
I meant at 180 games
Saito takes over with a 226 ERA+ and no one is close.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Jan 14, 2010 10:58 AM PST up reply actions
Its going to be incredibly aggravating
if he never gets another shot at the big stage and has his career remembered for two really bad outings.
Probably right
his starter numbers do take him down a notch.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Jan 14, 2010 11:22 AM PST up reply actions
as a starter = pre-steroids?
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
by David Young on Jan 14, 2010 12:33 PM PST up reply actions
Interesting
Everyone but Brewer pitched their age 25 season with the Dodgers, and everyone but Broxton (so far) pitched their age 26-27 seasons with LA.
by Eric Stephen on Jan 14, 2010 10:54 AM PST up reply actions
Yet the average fan thinks he’s horrible.
Does this make logic?
by silverwidow on Jan 14, 2010 10:56 AM PST up reply actions
"The regular season doesn't matter"
If you choke when it counts, then thats all that matters. See Rodriguez, Alex, pre ’09 postseason.
Postseason is Postseaon
As you can see Neidenfuer was quite the pitcher but all anyone remembers is Jack Clark.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Jan 14, 2010 10:57 AM PST up reply actions
Neidenfuer never really made a name for himself on a national scale
Probably due to the times. In ‘85 knowledge of non-superstars was still pretty limited beyond the local area. Also doesn’t help that he crashed hard after ’85 and was never the same.
Biggest head
in baseball, hence the nickname Buffalo Head. I would have loved to get a photo of Neidenfuer and Pierre with their heads together.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Jan 14, 2010 11:02 AM PST up reply actions
Since he was so big, with the big head, and the mustache, Niedenfuer always seemed much older to me (well, he was…26 to my 9 years old in 1985)
by Eric Stephen on Jan 14, 2010 11:04 AM PST up reply actions
well, to be fair to the average fan
Even NOT counting the postseason, he had more than his fair share of bad road outings. Part of that was almost certainly his injured foot, but that’s on him- he should have said something. Communication seems to be a problem with Broxton, as it seems to be part of his “macho” mentality.
Those numbers Phil posted include road outings
and they are still like really, really good.
And a little known fact, road games don’t count more in the standing than home games.
by Michael White on Jan 14, 2010 11:04 AM PST up reply actions
Which also points to the fact
that at home where the average fan has seen him, it is essentially game over.
So how come he wasn’t considered for setup man in the team of the decade over at MSTI.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Jan 14, 2010 11:06 AM PST up reply actions
hey, I'm not saying they don't
but when you’re watching the game on TV, and you see the opposing crowd going nuts as Broxton is laboring, that creates more of an impression on an average fan than most statistics do.
Just in general, though, being a closer is mostly a thankless job, unless you compile awesome numbers over a long period of time. With a job like that, people are far more inclined to remember the few times the closer messed up, than they are in remembering all the times he does the job expected of him.
Broxton has put up awesome numbers
People (including myself) have just overreacted to some of his bigger meltdowns. He should not close games in SD, lol.
well, I mostly agree
Broxton is under-appreciated by most, but he’s also not immune to some of the criticism lobbed in his direction. We can’t ignore that he himself said he was pitching around Stairs- one of the worst things you can do with a .190 hitter who also happens to have a notoriously good eye. Instead of letting the statistics dictate the situation, he let the past do it- not something you want your closer, of all people, doing. I just hope that there are coaches on the Dodgers who can help him out with this.
Broxton
Even if you include Brooklyn, Broxton still comes out on top (Perranoski & Koufax are at 131). If you lower the minimum to 200 games, Broxton is 3rd, behind…Jay Howell (169) and Steve Howe (149)
by Eric Stephen on Jan 14, 2010 10:57 AM PST up reply actions
Jay Howell
on the mound was what I would have expected if Clint Eastwood was a pitcher. The way he wore the brim of his cap. He was one of my favorites.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Jan 14, 2010 10:59 AM PST up reply actions
Keep in mind though
Broxton is not our guy
by Michael White on Jan 14, 2010 11:03 AM PST up reply actions
Alejandro Peña would have been a fun one to write up (not necessarily for the O’Malley Suite), but he ended at 281 games (121 ERA+).
LA Dodgers to lead the league in ERA
Koufax (5 straight years)
Sutton
Peña
Brown
by Eric Stephen on Jan 14, 2010 11:11 AM PST up reply actions
Pena and Brown heavy fastballs if I remember correctly.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Jan 14, 2010 11:14 AM PST up reply actions
Even if I include Brooklyn, there are only two more Dodgers to lead the NL in ERA: Dazzy Vance (x3) and Johnny Podres.
So the Dodgers’ NL ERA leaders are 3 HOFers, a near HOFer if not for attitude, the guy who pitched the team to their 1swt world title…and Alejandro Peña (aka the winning pitcher on October 15, 1988)!
by Eric Stephen on Jan 14, 2010 11:18 AM PST up reply actions
Having fun with play index are you?
I can’t make DS because of a 01:00 meeting scheduled that I couldn’t change. Dang work
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Jan 14, 2010 11:24 AM PST up reply actions
not the play index, but the year-by-year leaders
by Eric Stephen on Jan 14, 2010 11:25 AM PST up reply actions
I've got good but sad story
about the year by year leaders. It kind of sucks that all my stories seem to be about dead people who affected my life.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Jan 14, 2010 11:26 AM PST up reply actions
Isn’t that what happens when you get into your 50s? :)
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
by David Young on Jan 14, 2010 12:28 PM PST up reply actions
True
but his death was back in my 20’s.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Jan 14, 2010 12:52 PM PST up reply actions
At our age, those are the stories we appreciate the most. The other stories we discard from our memories.
I saw my Dad for about 90 minutes last night on his 76th birthday. Arranged to play chess with him one night next week. He taught me to play, but I haven’t played in decades. Took me years and year before I beat him, once; he was just more patient than I was to find a good move. Maybe I’m old and wise enough now to be that patient; of course, he is probably more so still!
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
Did he play without pieces when you first started
I’m sure he started without a queen, then went to a rook, then a bishop, finally we started playing straight up when I was around 11-12. Jay Stalling who I count as a good friend and one of the best people in the world teaches Chess in Valencia. Once upon a time as child he was rated as one of best chess players in the country. He scoffs at my story since he was playing his dad (Florida state champion) straight from the moment he was potty trained.
My favorite game with my dad was Cribbage.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
Funny, but I don’t remember for sure. I’m pretty sure we were playing straight up when I was in the 4th grade though. My father also taught me cribbage and we used to play that as well, though I couldn’t play today without rereading the rules (his nibs?). He also used to hit me tennis-ball fungoes in the street after work in the summertime. Good guy, my dad.
I remember reading an article you either wrote and/or linked on Jay Stalling.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
300 games is an interesting cutoff for pitchers. That’s 9+ full-time seasons as a starter in this day and age (9×33 < 300), but maybe 5 seasons in relief averaging 60 games per season.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
by David Young on Jan 14, 2010 12:30 PM PST up reply actions
How about that OPS+ against
Broxton just dazzles as does Koufax.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
If somone felt compelled to sponsor Claud Osteen
for the Lords of the Ravine I’m disappointed no one has stepped up for Burt Hooten. The Owl was one of our finest. Anyone surprised that Ramon Martinez didn’t pitch in 300 games (266).
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
Surprised about Ramon, and I would have thought Welch might have made it too.
by Eric Stephen on Jan 14, 2010 11:06 AM PST up reply actions
The Great Moments of the Ravine
should have a place for Welch. Then again you were only 2 so what do you know of the incredible intensity of the Welch/Jackson meeting in the 78 Series.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Jan 14, 2010 11:08 AM PST up reply actions
Not the same
you already knew the outcome. Most of us expected Reggie to jack it out after what he did to us in 77. One of the single most electrifying at bats I’ve watched when the context is taken into account. What a stage. What a moment.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Jan 14, 2010 11:16 AM PST up reply actions
Silly me
Thought the Dodgers were going to win the World Series. Damm you Nettles.
by bhsportsguy on Jan 14, 2010 12:07 PM PST up reply actions
Indeed
How many ropes did Garvey slam down the line? Single greatest individual defense world series I’ve ever witnessed and man did it blow to be on the wrong side.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Jan 14, 2010 12:09 PM PST up reply actions
I am afraid to look it up
It probably is less than we recall. But it seemed to happen a lot, especially in NY.
by bhsportsguy on Jan 14, 2010 12:29 PM PST up reply actions
Kevin Brown
is woefuly short in games started but in those games he pitched at the same level of Sandy Koufax. Yet many consider his contract a failure. Mwhite is champing at the bit to write up Kevin Brown.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
Would be pretty hard to sell Brown as a Dodger great
Just didn’t have a long enough Dodger tenure. If an argument could be made for him, then we need to consider people like Gary Sheffield too.
then we need to consider people like Gary Sheffield too
Which wouldn’t be a problem at all
by Eric Stephen on Jan 14, 2010 11:19 AM PST up reply actions
Those guys will have a place
but it won’t be in the O’Malley Suite which is the top rung. That is why the cutoff was 3000 games or 300 games pitched. You needed some tenure. No doubt Brown and Sheff were better then some of these players, but they just weren’t Dodgers long enough to deserve the top rung.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Jan 14, 2010 11:20 AM PST up reply actions
That’s what I’d figured. I figured the second tier was the place to make the argument for Brown, and you are right, I fully intend to.
Also, Sheffield and Piazza were the only two recent Dodgers that I am sure will make Cooperstown. And we had Sheff in his prime (it’s not like his time here was like his time in Detroit.) Obviously Piazza will be considered for the O’Malley Suite, but I think Sheffield should be counted in the second tier as well. But first things first, I’ve got to get to work on Shawn Green (which will probably be done Monday since I’m off work that day.)
by Michael White on Jan 14, 2010 11:24 AM PST up reply actions
I was surprised that
Green made the cutoff of 3000 at bats and that he had 1200 more at bats then Sheff.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Jan 14, 2010 11:29 AM PST up reply actions
I think Phil set the bar at 300 just to exclude him :)
by Eric Stephen on Jan 14, 2010 11:35 AM PST up reply actions
I would allow the exception
since we are talking two games if you want to sponsor game over gagne. In fact if anyone wants to do so. No doubt no one other then Fernando brought excitement to the Ravine like he did in my stadium experience (sadly no maury, no Sandy for me).
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Jan 14, 2010 11:37 AM PST up reply actions
Sheff is just like Brown
Both were very good for the Dodgers while in the short time they were here. Hated their attitudes, but there weren’t too many players better than these guys back then.
In 2001 I went to the disaster that was the first day of ticket sales at DS. It was a Saturday morning. They gave everyone wristbands. They had a big box with all of the wristband numbers on top of the ticket booth with someone up there to pull the number to see who went first.
The person up there stumbled and kicked the box off the booth, and there was now a big, rowdy delay as ticket sellers scrambled to pick up the pieces off of the ground and return them to the box.
They got Lee Lacy to then step up to the mic and calm the angry crowd. He asked the crowd if anybody had any questions for him.
Dodger fan: You know Sheffield?
LL: Yes!
DF: Tell him I said fuck you!!!!!!
Place went nuts, Lacy was escorted from the mic.
Great story
don’t shoot the messenger.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Jan 14, 2010 12:10 PM PST up reply actions
He performed to the level he should have with his giant contract, just didn't play enough games I think
His numbers were very, very good for the Dodgers. I’m curious as to his career numbers while with the Dodgers.
Player ERA+ G From To Age CG SHO W L W-L% IP BB SO ERA OPS+
Kevin Brown 147 137 1999 2003 34-38 11 2 58 32 .644 872.2 223 784 2.83 66
Sandy Koufax 135 335 1958 1966 22-30 133 38 156 77 .670 2119.2 709 2214 2.64 67
Andy Messersmith 129 125 1973 1979 27-33 43 13 55 34 .618 926.0 301 637 2.67 75
Derek Lowe 120 137 2005 2008 32-35 7 2 54 48 .529 850.1 214 563 3.59 80
Chad Billingsley 119 129 2006 2009 21-24 2 1 47 30 .610 634.0 288 580 3.55 91
Tommy John 118 182 1972 1978 29-35 37 11 87 42 .674 1198.0 296 649 2.97 87
Tim Belcher 118 138 1987 1991 25-29 21 12 50 38 .568 806.0 261 633 2.99 81
Don Drysdale 117 459 1958 1969 21-32 156 45 187 152 .552 3112.0 763 2283 2.98 86
Mike Morgan 117 107 1989 1991 29-31 11 5 33 36 .478 600.0 154 318 3.06 83
Orel Hershiser 116 353 1983 2000 24-41 65 24 135 107 .558 2180.2 667 1456 3.12 85
Ismael Valdez 115 185 1994 2000 20-26 10 5 61 57 .517 1065.0 299 785 3.48 88
Bob Welch 114 292 1978 1987 21-30 47 23 115 86 .572 1820.2 565 1292 3.14 87
Jerry Reuss 113 253 1979 1987 30-38 44 16 86 69 .555 1407.2 333 685 3.11 87
Burt Hooton 113 322 1975 1984 25-34 61 22 112 84 .571 1861.1 540 1042 3.14 82
Don Sutton 110 550 1966 1988 21-43 156 52 233 181 .563 3816.1 996 2696 3.09 83
Ramon Martinez 109 266 1988 1998 20-30 37 20 123 77 .615 1731.2 704 1314 3.45 90
Chan Ho Park 108 275 1994 2008 21-35 9 2 84 58 .592 1279.0 596 1177 3.77 90
Fernando Valenzue 107 331 1980 1990 19-29 107 29 141 116 .549 2348.2 915 1759 3.31 89
Al Downing 107 170 1971 1977 30-36 25 12 46 37 .554 897.2 326 532 3.16 91
Doug Rau 106 219 1972 1979 23-30 33 11 80 58 .580 1250.2 378 694 3.30 100
Claude Osteen 106 339 1965 1973 25-33 100 34 147 126 .538 2396.2 568 1162 3.09 97
Brad Penny 106 118 2004 2008 26-30 1 0 46 33 .582 678.2 216 462 4.07 96
Tom Candiotti 106 187 1992 1997 34-39 15 3 52 64 .448 1048.0 329 718 3.57 94
Bill Singer 105 190 1964 1972 20-28 52 18 69 76 .476 1274.1 392 989 3.03 87
Stan Williams 105 181 1958 1962 21-25 24 7 57 46 .553 872.0 429 657 3.83 87
Player ERA+ G From To Age CG SHO W L W-L% IP BB SO ERA OPS+
Rick Rhoden 105 118 1974 1978 21-25 21 7 42 24 .636 670.1 203 325 3.40 95
Hideo Nomo 104 191 1995 2004 26-35 12 7 81 66 .551 1217.1 534 1200 3.74 90
Pedro Astacio 104 174 1992 1997 22-27 13 9 48 47 .505 886.2 278 598 3.68 94
Johnny Podres 104 246 1958 1966 25-33 50 12 95 74 .562 1407.1 452 947 3.66 100
Kevin Gross 102 138 1991 1994 30-33 8 3 40 44 .476 680.0 244 527 3.63 97
Odalis Perez 102 132 2002 2006 25-29 4 2 45 40 .529 772.0 169 531 3.94 93
Rick Honeycutt 100 128 1983 1987 29-33 9 3 33 45 .423 651.1 203 352 3.58 102
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 1/14/2010.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Jan 14, 2010 11:32 AM PST up reply actions
Pitchers with 100 starts
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Jan 14, 2010 11:32 AM PST up reply actions
Thank you very much
A few things occured to me while looking at this:
1. Kevin Brown did all that while being 34-38, I figured he was in his early 30s when he signed with us.
2. What kind of idiot signs a 34 year old to a 7 year 100 million dollar contract, lol.
3. Derek Lowe was so so so good for the Dodgers and was vastly overlooked.
4. Ismael Valdez was surprisingly good from what I remember about him.
1. Yeah, quite good in his mid 30’s.
2. Malone’s argument at the time was that at back end of the contract Brown could be converted to a closer.
3. One of best valued free agent signing of the decade in baseball?
4. Valdez started out like a house a fire but quickly shot his wad. I’m hoping Chad does not follow the Valdez path.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Jan 14, 2010 11:40 AM PST up reply actions
1. Yup
2. Ya, probably wasn’t a genius move at the time. But still, his contract wasn’t a failure since the Dodgers were able to move him before he started his very sudden decline.
3. Definitely in the discussion.
4. I’ve got nothing on this one.
by Michael White on Jan 14, 2010 11:42 AM PST up reply actions
- I remember not long after that trade my dad recalled Fred Claire’s addage of “Better one year early than one year late.”
Branch Rickey
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Jan 14, 2010 11:46 AM PST up reply actions
Before my time
My dad was just a huge Claire fan and probably gave him credit for far too much. Hence, a bias I have inherited.
I remember a classmate in my 10th grade public speaking class did a speech on why signing Kevin Brown to a 7 year $100MM deal was a mistake.
by Michael White on Jan 14, 2010 11:46 AM PST up reply actions
Valdez
had his best season at age 23 with an ERA + of 143 and only once ever came within 30 points of that again. Chad had a 133 at age 23, then dropped to 98 at age 24.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Jan 14, 2010 11:45 AM PST up reply actions
I'm not worried about Chad
He had a great first half, and I’m 95% sure he was battling some kind of injury, or maybe still recovering from the broken leg.
I so love the the BBREF
Pre format function. It is is so easier now to share info. Baseball Prospectus take note of how a web site dedicated to baseball statistics should be done.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Jan 14, 2010 11:38 AM PST up reply actions
I haven't mastered all their sorting options
but that website is fantastic for their completeness and organization of stats. I also love how they allow a user to link to so many other sets from within a set that is already open.
As an ex-programmer
I just love what they have done.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Jan 14, 2010 11:42 AM PST up reply actions
Looking at that list
we had a very down year for LHP for the decade. Kershaw is easily the best LHP we had and Odalis Perez is 2nd. Hopefully the end of the next decade will find us debating if Kershaw or Koufax is the best LH starter in Dodger history and that we are all alive to be part of that debate.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
Left Handed Pitchers of the Decades
Player ERA+ G From To GS CG SHO W L W-L% IP H ER BB SO ERA OPS+
Sandy Koufax 135 335 1958 1966 286 133 38 156 77 .670 2119.2 1572 622 709 2214 2.64 67
Tommy John 118 182 1972 1978 174 37 11 87 42 .674 1198.0 1169 396 296 649 2.97 87
Jerry Reuss 113 253 1979 1987 201 44 16 86 69 .555 1407.2 1384 487 333 685 3.11 87
Fernando Valenzue 107 331 1980 1990 320 107 29 141 116 .549 2348.2 2099 864 915 1759 3.31 89
Al Downing 107 170 1971 1977 120 25 12 46 37 .554 897.2 814 315 326 532 3.16 91
Doug Rau 106 219 1972 1979 184 33 11 80 58 .580 1250.2 1245 459 378 694 3.30 100
Claude Osteen 106 339 1965 1973 335 100 34 147 126 .538 2396.2 2350 822 568 1162 3.09 97
Johnny Podres 104 246 1958 1966 220 50 12 95 74 .562 1407.1 1408 572 452 947 3.66 100
Odalis Perez 102 132 2002 2006 120 4 2 45 40 .529 772.0 751 338 169 531 3.94 93
Rick Honeycutt 100 128 1983 1987 108 9 3 33 45 .423 651.1 664 259 203 352 3.58 102
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 1/14/2010.
60-69 – Koufax
70 -79 – Tommy John
80 – 89 – Fernando
90 – 99 – No body qualifies
2000 – 2009 – Perez
No wonder we love Kershaw, we haven’t had a decent LHP other then a few years from Perez in 20 years.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
Crazy stuff
Here is the complete list of LHP to have 10 starts for the Dodgers in the 1990s:
Bob Ojeda (1991-1992): 60 starts, 104 ERA+
Fernando (1990): 33 starts, 80 ERA+
Carlos Perez (1998-1999): 27 starts, 76 ERA+
Brian Bohanon (1998, trade deadline): 14 starts, 167 ERA+
by Eric Stephen on Jan 14, 2010 12:05 PM PST up reply actions
Bohanon had the Magic Marlin Rolly Polly Pixie Dust vibe going
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Jan 14, 2010 12:08 PM PST up reply actions
Dodgers' Starts by LHP by decade
2000s: 469 starts (29.0%)
1990s: 154 starts (9.9%)
1980s: 603 starts (38.5%)
1970s: 657 starts (40.8%)
1960s: 703 starts (43.7%)
by Eric Stephen on Jan 14, 2010 12:11 PM PST up reply actions
We have enough info
in this thread to have written five posts.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Jan 14, 2010 12:13 PM PST up reply actions
From the Gurnick article:
But locking up top players would provide the club with a degree of cost certainty at a time whenFixed.management appears to be watching its payroll carefullya sale of the franchise looms in the near future.
Could a less unknown 2011 payroll help in a sale situation?
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
Couldn't possibly hurt
Potential buyer coming in and knowing with near certainty what its going to cost to run the team for the next year or two would have a fair bit of value.
I just hope next time around
the team actually gets sold to a real Dodger FAN. That’d probably help the future of the team even more than whatever the financial situation happened to be at that point in time.
Daniel Snyder is a Redskins fan.
I just want the next owner to not be up to his eyeballs in debt, and let the baseball people do their jobs with no strings attached.
by Eric Stephen on Jan 14, 2010 1:50 PM PST up reply actions
Hmm
they let Rodney walk, sign Valverde and lose a number one pick. Zumaya is wishing he never picked up Guitar Hero.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
loosing a first round pick doesnt really hut them...
imagine their rotation in a few years…
verlander sherzer casey crosby jacob turner and rick porcello WOW
while we're going off on different tangents
apparently, Derek Jeter is the 2nd greatest shortstop of all time. Of course he is:
http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/hotstove09/insider/news/story?id=4821991
is he trying to mock the stereotype of a Jeter fan, or just validate it?
Seriously, I can’t tell:
“Derek Jeter has the killer instinct of Jackie Robinson, the hustle of Pete Rose, the bat artistry of George Brett, the leadership of Kirby Puckett, the clutch hitting of Reggie Jackson, the acrobatics of Ozzie Smith, the eyes of Grace Kelly. He’s the perfect ballplayer.”
Not an insider
but Jeter is certainly in the conversation. Ripken. Yount, if he counts. Banks, if he counts. Arky Vaughan. Larkin. Smith. Maybe more names.
Two notes about this, tho.
1. There’s still a huge gap between number one and number two, whomever you choose as #2.
2. Jeter might be the second-best shortstop of all time, but on the other hand, he likely is also the second-best shortstop on his own team. The best shortstop we’ll ever see in our lives plays third base.
The Ultimate Ned's Kind of Guy
by Humma Kavula on Jan 14, 2010 2:38 PM PST up reply actions
Jeter is quite outstanding
which makes it all the more amazing how he can be SO overrated by so many. I can see him MAYBE in the top 10, but the top 2?! (According to the writer, David Schoenfield, Honus Wagner is #1.)
Part of it is that
Wagner is soooo clearly #1. Huge gap after him, and then you get to pick and choose among the rest. I would guess that the next ten candidates after Wagner are all roughly similar in career value. Your #2 could be my #10. I mean, how big is the difference between, say, Pee Wee Reese and Jeter? Larkin and Jeter? Ripken and Jeter? The shortstops that stand apart from that pack, to me, are Wagner and Alex Rodriguez.
The Ultimate Ned's Kind of Guy
by Humma Kavula on Jan 14, 2010 2:51 PM PST up reply actions
Does anyone have the BJ Abstract handy
I can’t remember who he had in the top five after Wagner.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
Right here
Wagner
Vaughan
Ripken
Yount
Banks
The Ultimate Ned's Kind of Guy
by Humma Kavula on Jan 14, 2010 3:34 PM PST up reply actions
Wanna know something funny?
Dick Schofield, Jr. really is #101 in James’ book.
Dad is unranked.
#102, in case you’re wondering, is Mickey Doolan.
The Ultimate Ned's Kind of Guy
by Humma Kavula on Jan 14, 2010 4:15 PM PST up reply actions
Davy Jones: unranked.
The Ultimate Ned's Kind of Guy
by Humma Kavula on Jan 14, 2010 4:19 PM PST up reply actions
Stop me before I kill again
Bill James’ #101-#125 shortstops are:
101 Schofield Jr.
102. Doolan
103. Jack Rowe
104. Spike Owen
105. Mike Bordick
106. Daryl Spencer
107. Bill Gleason
108. Alredo Griffin
109. Walt Weiss
110. Wayne Causey
111. Heinie Wagner
112. Craig Reynolds
113. Germany Smith
114. Charley Gelbert
115. Frank Taveras
116. Topper Rigney
117. Dick Howser
118. Billy Myers
119. Monte Cross
120. Mark Koenig
121. Jose Uribe
122. Kurt Stillwell
123. U L Washington
124. Ed Brinkman
125. Tim Foli
The Ultimate Ned's Kind of Guy
by Humma Kavula on Jan 14, 2010 4:23 PM PST up reply actions
Cue Dave Stewart
Billingsley’s agent. From Jerry Crasnick (ESPN):
Pitcher Josh Johnson confirms to ESPN.com that he’s agreed to 4-year, $39 million deal with Florida Marlins
WOwWOWOWW
I Thought for a second that it said BILLINGSLEY agreed to 4/39 million deal!!! DAMN!
but yeah this is a steal cause johnson is an ACE..
I know; Billingsley’s would eat just one.
by Eric Stephen on Jan 14, 2010 2:58 PM PST up reply actions
Billingsley should make roughly $3.35M in 2010. I’d like a multi-year deal similar to Johnson’s from 2011-2014.
Curious as to how you came up with $3.35m
by Eric Stephen on Jan 14, 2010 3:14 PM PST up reply actions
It is approximately 90% of Scott Kazmir’s 1st arb award ($3.785M)
Kazmir ERA+ (through 2008): 123
Billingsley ERA+ (through 2009): 119
I may have produced a low estimate, but Bills is coming off a down year and that may factor in.
I actually had forgotten the Angels traded for Kazmir for some reason. Thanks for jarring my memory :)
by Eric Stephen on Jan 14, 2010 3:32 PM PST up reply actions
Good thing they did
given what they lost this winter.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
I shouldn’t have included Kazmir’s 2008 season, since he got his 1st arb award through 2007. He was actually at 128 ERA+ at that point (a good amount ahead of Bills). But there’s also inflation, which might put them at a similar amount anyway.
Jon Lester’s deal, signed two service years earlier than Johnson, has an option for a second FA year. His payout was:
3rd yr: $1m
arb 1: $3.75m
arb 2: $5.75m
arb 3: $7.625m
FA 1: $11.625m
FA 2: $13m option ($250k buyout)
For the 4 years of Johnson’s time frame, that’s a total of $38 million (assuming the option is picked up)
by Eric Stephen on Jan 14, 2010 3:30 PM PST up reply actions
so even the notoriously cheap Florida Marlins
are committing their young starting pitcher to a (relatively) long term deal. And the Dodgers…….?
I was thinking the same thing. I wonder if talks intensified after Selig told the Marlins to start spending more money.
Some risk involved for the Fish
given his health history. Strong right now and hopefully he will stay that way but still a lot of money for someone who missed all of 2007 and 1/2 of 2008.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
If I'm the Marlins I tell MLB to go pound sand
and count the two rings in 15 years of existence and notice the Cubs (the big spenders they have ) have squat in 100 years.
by Michael White on Jan 14, 2010 3:42 PM PST up reply actions
Except
For this to have gotten done, MLB must have had the goods on Florida in some way.
If that’s true and a deal doesn’t get done, Florida is in breach of its contract with the players, n’est-ce pas?
And if that’s true, then the players take MLB to court. Which is the last thing MLB wants. And Florida would then have to pay to defend themselves, and if MLB really does have the goods on them, they’d lose the case and have to pay anyway. And who knows? There might be some punishment involved.
I am using the evidence of any deal at all as evidence that MLB had Florida over a barrel.
The Ultimate Ned's Kind of Guy
by Humma Kavula on Jan 14, 2010 3:53 PM PST up reply actions
Don't think the Marlins have a choice
it was part of the collective bargaining agreement that teams collecting luxury tax revenues not hoard the money but spend it on players.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
Crasnick has the breakdown:
2010: $3.75m
2011: $7.75m
2012: $13.75m
2013: $13.75m
by Eric Stephen on Jan 14, 2010 4:12 PM PST up reply actions
Can they work out a deal with Broxton
that all of his incentives depend on his performance in October? Something like $5 million a season plus another $5 million if you don’t blow it in October?
I could be wrong
But I believe that there is no such thing as a performance bonus anymore, with two exceptions:
1) bonus tied to playing time
2) bonus tied to honors (mvp, cya, all-star, gold glove, etc).
On top of that, what player in his right mind would sign such a deal? “You get $5 million not based upon how well you throw the first 1,000 pitches this season, but this one pitch right here. Strike, $5 million. Ball, nothing. Go for it!”
The Ultimate Ned's Kind of Guy
by Humma Kavula on Jan 14, 2010 3:56 PM PST up reply actions
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