A Look At Chad Billingsley & His Peers
by Eric Stephen on Jan 14, 2010 4:28 PM PST
in Payroll
25 comments
With the news of Josh Johnson signing a four-year, $39 million extension with the Marlins today, my thoughts turn to the Dodgers' own arbitration-eligible starting pitcher, Chad Billingsley. However, rather than sign a multi-year agreement, Ken Gurnick of MLB.com reported yesterday that Billingsley and the Dodgers were close on a one-year deal.
What might that 2010 salary be? Here's a look at some comparable pitchers to Billingsley, along with their salaries for their first year of arbitration. Stats are through each player's third year
| Player | Year |
Svc Time |
IP | W-L | HR/9 | BB/9 | K/9 | ERA | ERA+ | WAR | Salary |
| Chad Billingsley | 2010 | 3 yrs, 110 days |
634.0 | 47-30 | 0.8 | 4.1 | 8.2 | 3.55 | 119 | 10.2 | ??? |
| Felix Hernandez | 2009 | 3 yrs, 60 days | 666.1 | 39-36 | 0.9 | 2.9 | 8.0 | 3.80 | 114 | 14.3 | $3.8m |
| Ervin Santana | 2009 | 3 yrs, 104 days | 706.2 | 51-37 | 1.1 | 2.8 | 7.4 | 4.42 | 101 | 12.0 | $3.8m |
| Jon Lester | 2010 | 3 yrs, 75 days | 558.0 | 42-16 | 0.8 | 3.3 | 7.9 | 3.66 | 128 | 13.1 | $3.75m |
| Justin Verlander | 2009 | 3 yrs, 2 days | 600.0 | 46-34 | 0.9 | 3.3 | 7.2 | 4.11 | 110 | 10.7 | $3.675m |
| Paul Maholm | 2009 | 3 yrs, 37 days | 601.1 | 30-35 | 1.0 | 3.1 | 5.8 | 4.30 | 101 | 6.7 | $3.5m |
Santana, Lester, and Maholm all signed multi-year contracts, and Lester's was signed early, after just two years of service time. Judging from these comps, it is reasonable that Billingsley would get somewhere between $3.5 and $3.8 million on a one-year deal. It is worth noting that even though Billingsley is coming off a poor second half, which might lower his bargaining leverage, he can look to Justin Verlander, who got a one-year deal for $3.675 million last season coming off a year in which he went 11-17 with a 4.84 ERA (and 4.18 FIP).
I have revised the payroll worksheet (and right sidebar on the front page) with an updated estimate for Billingsley at $3.75 million for 2010.
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o man
who knew about this guy Zack Cox???? he was the dodgers selection in the draft outta high school and like david price and alex white… he didnt sign… and hes projected to be a top 8 pick in next years draft…
20th round
A lot of times picks that low are just fliers, a reach in hopes that a player might sign. I know I brought up Alex White (14th round) earlier this offseason, but to me as long as it’s not a top 10 pick I’m OK if these guys get away. Every once in a while, one will sign out of HS, but a lot of times the player can improve their stock by going to college and the bonus required to lure them away can be prohibitive.
by Eric Stephen on Jan 14, 2010 4:45 PM PST up reply actions
Good stuff in the LAT
by Bill Shaikin, who tracked down Joe Torre
On what he expects from Chad Billingsley: "To get better. It was really a strange year he had. I think the two injuries really knocked him off his game. He tried to force it. He never got into his rhythm. He had lost his confidence more than anything."
On Orlando Hudson’s claim that Torre never communicated with him about his September benching in favor of Ron Belliard: "We had a conversation in San Francisco. I told him, ‘I don’t know what I’m going to do. Belliard is swinging the bat. I can’t tell you what it will be like day-to-day.’ "
On whether he has gotten any calls from other clubs asking about Hudson, who remains a free agent: "No."
Good info overall in that article
BILLINGSLY
VERY SIMPLE—BREAK TRADITION—SIGN HIM FOR 5 YRS @ 4 MILLION PER-IT WILL BE A BARGIN LATER AND WE ALL KNOW HES YOUNG-SAME WITH KERSHAW-DO IT NOW BEFORE THEY COST TOO MUCH AND WE LOSE THEM BOTH-ALSO-MARTAIN-EITHIER-KEMP AMD LONEY-SIGN THEM ALL FOR 5YR DEALS WHILE WE CAN GET THEN CHEAPER-ITS ALWAYS A CHANCE-BUT WAY BETTER THAN SCHMIDT AND JONES AND EVEN KEVIN BROWN-THEY WERE ALL A BIG WASTE OF MONEY-DONT FORGET DARRIN DRIEFORT-DO THIS AND GO AFTER AND BIG TIME # 1 STARTER-WE HAVE ENOUGH MONEY AND ALOT OF ROOKIES TO TRADE WITH-ALSO SIGN PADILLA FOR 3 YRS @ 5 MILLION WE CAN GET HIM FOR THAT PRICE!-IF WE CAN DO THIS WE CAN REPAEAT AND MAYBE EVEN GET TO THE WORLD SIERIES
by spc7@verizon.net on Jan 14, 2010 5:19 PM PST reply actions
Even if he had Adam LaRoche’s agent, there’s no way Billingsley would accept a 5 year, $20 million deal. Not when he’s going to already get close enough to $4 million this year, with raises due the next two years. And that’s before he hits free agency.
I agree though with the overall sentiment that if the Dodgers sign their arb-elgibiles to multi-year deals they might as well buyout some free agent years while they’re at it.
by Eric Stephen on Jan 14, 2010 5:58 PM PST up reply actions
TORRE
TORRE IS THE BEST THING THAT HAS HAPPENED TO THE DODGERS IN YEARS!
by spc7@verizon.net on Jan 14, 2010 5:21 PM PST reply actions
I can't - and won't read all that upper case wodge
spc7: Please learn to use lower-case letters, periods and other punctuation. I can’t read that stuff at all.
There’s no need for that. If you aren’t willing to read it, don’t. You know, if you spent less time correcting others (frankly, a majority of your comments) and more time reading and contributing to the content, I think you would enjoy the site that much more.
by Eric Stephen on Jan 14, 2010 5:59 PM PST up reply actions
I read all the comments, and enjoy almost all of them. I didn’t think I was that unusual in responding to points I take issue with – lots of people do that – but maybe you’re right. I’ll look out for that.
My comment was too harsh. Sorry about that
by Eric Stephen on Jan 14, 2010 9:25 PM PST up reply actions
“wodge”? Is that a good enough word to look up what it means and how it is pronounced? :)
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
Oh, not really, I suppose. I lived in England for many years. I think it must be a Britishism that crept in. Think of a lot of stuff all crammed or squished together such that you can’t much differentiate any of it specifically. That’s wodge…
Crasnick reports that
27.5M are owed to J. Johnson in the last 2 years of that contract (13.75 for each year), does anyone think that the Marlins just did this to satisfy MLB but they will try to move him prior to next season so they won’t have pay out the last 2 seasons.
Won't they have the stadium revenue by then?
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
You mean like the Padres
I think we tend over emphasize how much revenue is really available for these teams to make and especially in South Florida, which has never showed that it will fully support baseball.
I can see why no one will support a S. Florida team..
It feels like it is 100,000 degrees everyday, and when it isn’t like this, it is raining. I have cousins who live in the middle of Florida and sometimes it is unbearable… The worst part about their old park was the lack of a roof. Fans were guaranteed to get rained on followed by being uncomfortable in the humidity. A bad place for a baseball team where they play all their games in the summer…
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Jan 14, 2010 8:49 PM PST up reply actions
I'm not saying they will have 100M payroll
but they surely can improve 100% from where they are at today.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
I was simply saying that I understand why they are being cheap with the team… They have no fan base, in large part because of the stadium location.
I do think they can be competitive because they have great talent. However I do think this is a very rare case where the stadium has a huge part in their success, and not how it plays on the field(ie, pitchers or hitters park) but enough support where the owners can field an 80m payroll can not go bankrupt
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Jan 16, 2010 1:35 AM PST via mobile up reply actions
Looking at that list..
Billingsley is in pretty good company. I mean, his best comps(in order, by WAR) are Verlander(ace), Santana(was an ace, hurt most of last year), Maholm(eh, I never really liked him), Lester(ace), Felix(ace). So, his best comps are 3 aces, a guy who looked like an ace until the injuries, and an ‘eh’… And people wanted to trade him in a PACKAGE for Halladay…
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Jan 14, 2010 8:46 PM PST reply actions
And people wanted to trade him in a PACKAGE for Halladay…
Yup, his success simply doesn’t matter – not when he’s unable to throw at other players’ domes in the playoffs. Headhunting > career ERA, ERA+, Ks, everything.
That and his fairly pedestrian second half of 2009 seem to have made people forget how good he has been up to this point. I’m still high on Bills, but I’m okay with waiting until the end of 2010 before thinking long term.
I'd sign him right now
If I could. He still has amazing talent and showed some guts pitching through obvious injury. MOKM’s Kensai/Chad had a stat on the SP in review thread saying that bills didn’t struggle neccesarily in the 6th, but rather after 76 pitches. Simply, as the game wore on, he’d lose strength in his legs and his control suffered, which lead to him getting hit… Hard.
Anyways, since we drafted Kershaw, i’ve been dreaming about having Kershaw and Billz lead this rotation for years. Personally, I’d give him 5 years. He is young and showed what he can do when healthy in the 1st half of the yr
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Jan 16, 2010 1:29 AM PST via mobile up reply actions
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NL West Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
San Diego
|
76 | 56 | .575 | 0 | Lost 7 |
|
San Francisco
|
74 | 60 | .552 | 3 | Won 2 |
|
Colorado
|
69 | 63 | .522 | 7 | Lost 2 |
|
Los Angeles
|
68 | 66 | .507 | 9 | Lost 2 |
|
Arizona
|
55 | 79 | .410 | 22 | Won 3 |
(updated 9.2.2010 at 3:17 AM PDT)
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