Dodger Payroll Poll
by meercatjohn on Jan 18, 2010 9:52 AM PST
in Los Angeles Dodgers Payroll
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PrintEric has updated the Dodger payroll worksheet.and even with generous arbitration contracts for Martin and Andre the Dodgers currently stand at $90Million. That gives the Dodgers plenty of room to still add an excellent pitcher or two mediocre pitchers if they increase the payroll to $100 Million. Since I wrote this comment Brett Myers and Colby Lewis are off the table and very few quality free agent pitchers remain. Did we wait too long or is Ned going to get a nice late winter deal?It does seem that whoever we bring in will be on a one year deal only.
So what are your expectations?
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What is scary to me
is that Eric has the 2011 Payroll estimated at $87 Million and that does not include Kuroda (13 Million) and Manny so if everything remains as he projects we will be headed into 2011 without the guy who very well could be our best pitcher in 2010 and with no slugging left fielder. Martin at 8.5 in 2011 will not be tendered if he doesn’t bounce but the real albatross contract in 2011 might by Furcal’s at $12 Million.
I have to remain optimistic that the real reason the Dodgers got Carroll to defer some of his contract was so that we could fit more players into 2010 and not because we simply can’t afford him.
I’m going to add a 2012 column to the worksheet once the salaries for the arb guys are finalized.
The more I think about it, Ethier and Martin are trending toward one another, I’m thinking around the $5.5m mark. I still think, on a one year deal, Martin would get more in arbitration, but I’m not going to write a post about it until after tomorrow, when either the numbers are exchanged or some more contracts get signed.
by Eric Stephen on Jan 18, 2010 10:10 AM PST up reply actions
I expect Kershaw to be our best pitcher in 2010. Remember, he only started using the slider midway through. Now he has three legit plus pitches, and with better command, he’ll easily be our ace.
by silverwidow on Jan 18, 2010 10:14 AM PST up reply actions
+1
agree 100 percent..
the scary thing is his slider might be even better then his curve… cause in the end of the year.. he was using the slider more then the curve…
by matthewmafa on Jan 18, 2010 10:16 AM PST up reply actions
What’s the current thinking on which pitch is more stressful on a pitcher’s arm, slider or curveball? There once was a time when the Dodgers wouldn’t teach their young pitchers a slider, because they thought is was too stressful on the young arms, considering it a pitch to be added later when the pitcher was much more physically mature.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
I like that the option "Ned makes a move none of us saw coming." is getting some traction
Anyone care to conjecture on what this move could be?
They can’t speculate, because then at least one person would have seen it coming! :)
by Eric Stephen on Jan 18, 2010 10:12 AM PST up reply actions
Trade prospects for a free pitcher?
What about, trade a some prospects for an MLB pitcher, with the other team picking up the salary for the pitcher.
That’s consistent with some of their other recent moves, but it would be more likely in mid-season.
I was thinking that too
Like trading for Harang but selling prospects to make the deal work…
by Michael White on Jan 18, 2010 10:32 AM PST up reply actions
I think that is a mid-season move.
and fully expect Trayvon Robinson to be dealt. Ned has traded switch hitters Santana in 2008, Bell in 2009 and what they both had in common was that they each were having a career season when traded. So Trayvon will do the same with the expectation he’s available since Kemp is going to be our CF for the next two years.
by meercatjohn on Jan 18, 2010 10:35 AM PST up reply actions
Maybe.
But if I had to guess on a reason why the Dodgers haven’t already done a deal with Garland, I’d imagine it’s because Colletti is trying to see if there’s anyone out there better than Garland that he can acquire via trade.
I couldn’t speculate on names. I have no idea who’s available, or for what price. But if there’s anyone out there who can be had for two young pitching prospects + Robinson, Colletti might just pull the trigger on that, save the money, have a better pitcher than Garland, and try to win the World Series before the current window closes.
Not that I necessarily endorse such a move. Just trying to think: if everybody thinks the Dodgers are going to sign Garland, and he seems like a good fit, why hasn’t that deal happened?
The Ultimate Ned's Kind of Guy
by Humma Kavula on Jan 18, 2010 10:41 AM PST up reply actions
if everybody thinks the Dodgers are going to sign Garland, and he seems like a good fit, why hasn’t that deal happened?
I think it’s because the deal would end up at something like one year for $5-6m, while Garland is still holding out hope for a two-year deal, or perhaps even a one-year deal in the $7m+ range.
by Eric Stephen on Jan 18, 2010 10:43 AM PST up reply actions
I agree with Eric
Ned is trying to get a one year deal and Garland is hoping for two from someone else.
by meercatjohn on Jan 18, 2010 10:45 AM PST up reply actions
Many hope that
Robinson is ready after this year and comes to the show in 2011. An OF of Robinson, Kemp and Ethier is amazing. Ethier, if he struggles again defensively, could go to LF and Robinson in RF, or vice versa. No one is moving Kemp, IMO
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Jan 18, 2010 4:25 PM PST up reply actions
Not sure why you'd enamored
with Robinson in the corner. To me he either makes it as a CF or has little value. At his best he might be a .280/.330/.430 type of hitter with a terrible stolen base %. That might play in someone’s CF but not ours, not with our light hitting infield.
I dont think he needs to be in CF to succeed.
Especially if the power remains. If he hits, lets say, 15 Hrs a year, while hitting 280, plus speed(i remember reading an interview on MOKM with Robinson and he was saying there was going to be a race at some point between him and Dee for fastest.. he is that fast). I don’t know how you can expect bad SB% as he matures and learns to read the pitcher instead of just going with pure speed.
Of Course, this year will be big. If he proves this year wasnt a fluke, I do think he is in the majors in 2011. The Dodgers will have great flexibility with Robinson, Kemp and Ethier, defensively at least.
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Jan 18, 2010 4:34 PM PST up reply actions
i would say robinson is more of a .280/.360/.430 type player
he has some great patience and was improving a lot in that category in the end of the year also…
My point is a 280/360/430
hitter with ~15 HRs, great defense and speed bad? Any offensive shortcomings will be easily picked up by Kemp and Ethier and he could spell Furcal from the leadoff spot. Imagine the speed of Gordon, Robinson and Kemp in the same lineup…
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Jan 18, 2010 4:43 PM PST up reply actions
For a corner outfielder
it is no big deal. I could also envision an outfield of Pierre/Kemp/Andre and it gave me nightmares not sweet dreams. I don’t care for the speed unless he can use it and by all accounts Trayvon was one of the worse baserunners in the Cal League.
Robinson is coming on, but he has to keep coming on, you guys sound like he’s already there or that getting there is in the bag. His year was impressive last year because of what he done in the past, we should keep that in perspective. Right now I don’t see how he’s anymore of a prospect then Xavier Paul.
robinson has a better chance at being a CF...
but ya paul has a higher Floor
That seems like a leap
from a .371 OBP in the Cal League. He is not Carlos Santana, he may be gaining plate discipline but he has a long way to go to think he could do a .360 OBP in the major leagues.
yeah i understand that
but his patience in AA and in the AFL led me to belive he has improved a lot and we will see more improvement in the future..
70 PA in AA and ~100 PA in the AFL isn’t much to go on, but it is the right trend – if it is indeed a trend and not just a spike. In any case, he just finished a season in A+ with a cup of coffee in AA. I think 2012, after two more seasons in AA / AAA, as a guess for possible significant major-league contribution is more likely.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
Just trying to think: if everybody thinks the Dodgers are going to sign Garland, and he seems like a good fit, why hasn’t that deal happened?
Torre probably doesn’t endorse him.
I Voted #2. It Is The Most Likely By Far.
The topic I am more interested in is which of the pitchers we already have gets the #5 slot in the rotation, and I do believe it is inevitable one of them will. For the sake of argument, let’s say that it will be either Elbert or McDonald. One of those two. I am interested to know which of those two all of you would prefer wins out, if you are restricted to those choices.
Of those two, I would pick Elbert to start, in part because I like McDonald out of the pen as well (which is not to say I don’t think either one couldn’t do the other job).
by Eric Stephen on Jan 18, 2010 10:45 AM PST up reply actions
For the sake of argument, let’s say that it will be either Elbert or McDonald. One of those two. I am interested to know which of those two all of you would prefer wins out, if you are restricted to those choices.
If McDonald can still bring 94-95 mph heat in the rotation, then I’m all for it. He has a great changeup that was almost never used in the pen but he’ll need it in a starting role. I think he’ll be given a chance to win a job, but will probably stay where he is right now.
Elbert has to start in my opinion. Using him as a LOOGY or whatever is an awful waste of talent. He has the weapons to be a successful starter.
by silverwidow on Jan 18, 2010 10:53 AM PST up reply actions
That Is My Preference, Eric.
Elbert starts, McDonald to the bullpen. But if McDonald wins out, I want Elbert starting in the minors. I feel more adamant about Elbert being a starter than McDonald.
Yeah, I like that plan. Elbert starting every 5th day, somewhere at least.
I also just realized I had a triple negative in my post.
by Eric Stephen on Jan 18, 2010 10:54 AM PST up reply actions
I think Elbert starting in Albuquerque is a waste of time. I’m starting to get the Andy LaRoche vibe with him (top prospect forever, but never got legitimate playing time with the Dodgers).
by silverwidow on Jan 18, 2010 11:03 AM PST up reply actions
At least to start the year, Elbert starting in Albuquerque is better than him being the #6 man in the bullpen with the Dodgers.
by Eric Stephen on Jan 18, 2010 11:07 AM PST up reply actions
Silverwidow,
I disagree about the Elbert/LaRoche thing. Long before LaRoche was traded we were hearing things like Colletti didn’t like LaRoche’s “big league attitude,” and concerns about LaRoche’s ability to stay healthy. If Elbert hadn’t been able to come back from his 2007 surgery he might be in the same boat, but Elbert has been healthy and effective, so I think he was spared being put in the organization doghouse that Guzman, LaRoche, and Abreu found themselves in before they were shipped out. Also, it is worth noting that the Logan White prospects that have been dealt have been position players or second or third tier pitching prospects. Elbert is like Billingsley and Kershaw in having that first-round-pitcher shine about him.
by CanuckDodger on Jan 18, 2010 11:20 AM PST up reply actions
Agreed
I’m pretty sure Colletti is an Elbert fan based on quotes throughout his tenure.
But you never know about Torre and how much pull he has with these decisions.
by silverwidow on Jan 18, 2010 11:23 AM PST up reply actions
Under different circumstances
it woud’ve been great to sign one of sheets/bedard and one of padilla/garland.
Bedard and Padilla would be fine. Always pick the higher K/9 from each group.
by silverwidow on Jan 18, 2010 11:20 AM PST up reply actions
I'd rather have the best pitcher
not just the best strikeout pitcher and while strikeouts are a great indicator to many pitchers succeed with average K rates to pick soley on that basis.
by meercatjohn on Jan 18, 2010 11:24 AM PST up reply actions
Except that Padilla at 6.0 K/9 (his numbers with Texas 2007-2009) wasn’t better than Garland at 4.4 K/9 (his numbers with Arizona 2007-2009).
That’s the question with Padilla. Will he bring the 8+ K/9 stuff like he did for two months with the Dodgers, or will he just be plain old Vicente Padilla. Garland may not have the best upside, but he has the most certainty of reaching his projection, between he and Padilla.
by Eric Stephen on Jan 18, 2010 11:25 AM PST up reply actions
So I assume you guys want Sheets and Garland? :)
by silverwidow on Jan 18, 2010 11:30 AM PST up reply actions
I would love Sheets, but mostly because I am assuming he will be ready to pitch the whole season. Not sure about Bedard.
by Eric Stephen on Jan 18, 2010 11:35 AM PST up reply actions
I am a Sheets fan, too (remember, he almost threw a Perfect Game against us on Opening Day 2007). But there’s no way the organization will give him 10M guaranteed. No chance in hell.
Bedard could easily settle for a Wolf (2009) deal. I would enjoy that.
by silverwidow on Jan 18, 2010 11:37 AM PST up reply actions
When is Bedard able to pitch? May? June? I don’t see the Dodgers spending their FA starter money on someone who won’t be ready in April. Not that Bedard wouldn’t be a nice pickup, but it ain’t happening.
by Eric Stephen on Jan 18, 2010 11:39 AM PST up reply actions
Did Bedard tear his labrum? If so, forget it. I’m not clear on the specifics.
by silverwidow on Jan 18, 2010 11:43 AM PST up reply actions
and just because Sheets wants $10 million per year doesn’t man he will get it.
by Eric Stephen on Jan 18, 2010 11:39 AM PST up reply actions
I never thought this would go so far backwards.
This other blog I was at 11 years ago, we used to discuss Randy vs. Kevin
I went with 5
Garland/Padilla type and a risk on Sheets and meanwhile give James and Elbert a shot until Sheets is ready (or wait, is it Bedard that’s not ready until June?).
I love this
piece of trivia from Padres’ announcer Andy Masur:
2010 will be the fourth straight season in which the Padres have one or more sets of brothers:
2010: Hairstons
2009: Gonzalezes
2008: Gonzalezes
2007: Gileses
huh- getting Hairston back after just trading him away
if that’s not a first, it has to be extremely unusual! (I do vaguely recall Rickey Henderson going back to the A’s after the Blue Jays rented him in ‘93, but I’m pretty sure he did that on his own as a free agent.)
Also, two different GMs made the S.Hairston deals.
by Eric Stephen on Jan 18, 2010 2:32 PM PST up reply actions
they're gonna have to rename the team
From "The “Padres” to “The Hermanos”! :)
by sarcastro9 on Jan 18, 2010 6:40 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Trivia question
I was thinking about Lincecum’s upcoming arbitration case. Who holds the record for highest first year arbitration figure?
Ryan Howard got $10 million in 2008, but the record for a pitcher is Jonathan Papelbon’s $6.25m last year.
I have a feeling Lincecum, being an outlier, will blow by Howard and end up in the $12-13m range.
by Eric Stephen on Jan 18, 2010 1:05 PM PST up reply actions
I voted $14.25
in the baseball prospectus contest. Actually, since there are like 300 guesses already, that’s what I would’ve guessed had it not been taken by four or five people already.
vr, Xei
The move I would like to see most is the trade for Harang. If they are considering Piniero, then they must feel confident that they can at least outlay $6M+ for 2010. That money would be better spent on Harang with the Reds kicking in the remainder of his 2010 salary. Harang gives us the inning-eating, workhorse combined with the upside of Bedard.
If we can’t get a deal done for Harang, then I think I would rather have Padilla than all of the others. Get him for a an inexpensive contract and then wait until February and try to snag Bedard or Wang.
Could be as few as 0, or as many as 3:
1) backup C, or just stick with Ellis (they may be waiting for Ausmus to decide to play or retire)
2) backup SS, which I believe has already been signed (Green or Berroa)
3) backup OF or an IF/OF…Dodgers were linked to Robb Quinlan earlier, with the thinking that he could play the corners in the IF and OF (not that he’s any good)
by Eric Stephen on Jan 18, 2010 1:18 PM PST up reply actions
I forgot to add, I’m assuming Mientkiewicz to make the team.
My prediction for the bench on opening day:
2B/3B Carroll
1B Eye Chart
SS Green
C Ausmus
OF Repko
by Eric Stephen on Jan 18, 2010 1:20 PM PST up reply actions
Then again, they might start with 11 pitchers, because they don’t need a 5th starter until April 24 (game #17)
by Eric Stephen on Jan 18, 2010 1:23 PM PST up reply actions
What am I missing? Because the Dodgers have the day off after Opening Day (Monday), the #1 starter can make his second start on Saturday, but isn’t Sunday 4/11 the first day they need a fifth starter, because that would be short rest for anyone else?
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
Yeah, I just noticed that too. Oh well, it was a good thought :)
by Eric Stephen on Jan 18, 2010 1:32 PM PST up reply actions
If they just go with five starters in the first five games, they could skip the #5 starter twice if needed the rest of April.
by Eric Stephen on Jan 18, 2010 1:42 PM PST up reply actions
I don’t see that. From 4/13 to 4/30 there’s just one off day and seventeen games.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
Damn, I screwed up a middle starter again. Please ignore all my schedule related posts today :)
by Eric Stephen on Jan 18, 2010 1:53 PM PST up reply actions
IMO, I would like to see us pick up Jermaine Dye for a bench spot. Sure it is going to cost probably about $4M but he could easily be used to spell Manny and start for Ethier against tough lefites as well as rest Loney every so often. He could also share DH duites with Manny. He is from California and was rumored to want to play out west. The bench would then be constructed as:
Dye – OF/1B
Paul – OF
Ellis – C
Carroll – 2B/3B
Green – SS/2B
I don’t expect that to happen though, we will probably have a very underwhelming bench like we have the last few years.
Share DH duties with Manny? Are 6 games worth factoring into the decision?
Jonny Gomes can’t really field, but he’s a better bat IMO and would be cheaper if we go for actually spending money on a reserve OF (~$2m or so)
by Eric Stephen on Jan 18, 2010 1:25 PM PST up reply actions
It really doesn’t matter, I would take Gomes or Dye or Thames or any of the other RH power bats that can’t really field. I just don’t want to see another bench that is completely devoid of power.
Curious
to see where the unemployed free agents start to land. Thome and Dye have to be AL players but who needs them? Wouldn’t the A’s have been better off non-tendering Cust and signing one of them? I feel like Thome is going to have an inglorious end to his possible HOF career.
They did non-tender Cust, and re-signed him at a price lower than he would have received in arbitration
by Eric Stephen on Jan 18, 2010 1:46 PM PST up reply actions
True
but they still signed him for a few million and it looks like pitchers figured out in 2009 not to throw him a fastball.
There are a whole host of names out there with very few DH or LF positions open. There really is no reason why we should go through the season with no power on the bench, when there are going to be players available for a reduced price.
Players
will wait until the end to find a team where they can get at bats instead of being relegated to simply a pinch hitting role for the Dodgers.
That said the two players who I’d like to add are Garko and Belliard.
I’d be down with that bench, although by May DeWitt will be wondering why Torre won’t tell him why he’s benched :)
by Eric Stephen on Jan 18, 2010 1:59 PM PST up reply actions
BELLY!
There was nothing quite as satisfying as yelling Go BELLY! this year. It has a good ring to it. I would also appreciate having BelliYard for 2010. Why would Ned NOT bring him back? Seems like Torre was infatuated with the Belly.
In case anyone didn't notice since my posts all look similar...
I posted another part of my Dodger prospect rankings as a fanpost
Oh to be a 16-year old Dominican catcher
George Alfaro signed with the Rangers for $1.3m. No word on whether Bowden or Rijo took a cut. :)
Oh man, crappy Americanization of the name on my part…that would be Jorge Alfaro :)
by Eric Stephen on Jan 18, 2010 1:48 PM PST up reply actions
The dichotomy of that is awesome
We all expect Ned to do something we don’t expect :)
by Eric Stephen on Jan 18, 2010 2:00 PM PST up reply actions
Also good
though I had this in mind: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uprjmoSMJ-o
;)
That's the smart money bet
Choice 2 is a clear favorite, every semi-credible option is a double-digit longshot, so play the field (#6) to finish in the money. One of those nags is bound to come in. And Ned knows nags. (Russ Ortiz, Shawn Estes.)
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
This got me thinking
we should run a weekly Dodger-related gambling column
by Eric Stephen on Jan 18, 2010 2:08 PM PST up reply actions
Our anal-retentive ways.
Speaking of that region, I’d never seen “Trainspotting” before. Threw the DVD in the other night while sitting down to a plate of Chicken Mole. At about the ten-minute mark, I came to realize that either my culinary or my cinema choice was not the best match. (What’s with Danny Boyle, does his have a fetish? “Slumdog Milliionaire” has a similarly flavored scene.)
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
Speaking of Slumdog
Nice to see Anil Kapoor (game show host in the movie) as President Hassan in 24 last night.
by Eric Stephen on Jan 18, 2010 2:34 PM PST up reply actions
So CTU
can’t even do proper vetting of their employee’s. Are white trash not allowed to work with CTU and that is why Dana Walsh had to change her name? Does Chloe do anything but clench her jaw? I saw her do standup on the new John Oliver show? Unimpressive.
I had the same thought last night re: CTU. For being such a security-based organization, their human resources department is just awful. They probably have a 1-to-1 traitor to non-traitor ratio there :)
Chloe is annoying. She needs to be killed, so we can have revenge Jack again.
by Eric Stephen on Jan 18, 2010 2:42 PM PST up reply actions
I was hoping Jack would get on that plane so I would not have to watch another season. Unfortunately, I am already hooked.
Doug Hutchison (the bad guy rocket launcher pretending to be a cop) takes the title from Dennis Hopper (season 1) as the worst accent in 24 history, so there’s that.
by Eric Stephen on Jan 18, 2010 2:48 PM PST up reply actions
And if you were watching carefully, I actually triple-posted that. Stupid auto-numbering lists!
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
and my “double” was to correct the fact that I couldn’t reply to your since-deleted post :)
by Eric Stephen on Jan 18, 2010 2:33 PM PST up reply actions
Fact: Today, which, not coincidentally, is MLK Day, people have gathered in the rain to chant and protest the firing of Conan O’Brien. They’re holding hands and singing songs: “All we are saying,” they intone, “Give Conan a chance.”
Opinion: Whatever this is a sign of, I don’t like it.
Stipulated: I am becoming a humorless jerk.
The Ultimate Ned's Kind of Guy
If the players would have ever revolted against the union leadership, I would have been OK with signs saying “We have nothing to fear but Fehr itself.”
by Eric Stephen on Jan 18, 2010 3:06 PM PST up reply actions
Oh, puns and me are still OK. Yesterday I suggested that the signature cocktail of the Golden Globes should be the Lime Ricky Gervais.
The Ultimate Ned's Kind of Guy
by Humma Kavula on Jan 18, 2010 3:10 PM PST up reply actions
For all the hoopla the host gets
he doesn’t get much camera time to really make much of an impact. I like Ricky but how could he let Michael C Hall off the hook. I liked the head covering but as a comedian don’t you have to go after that?
Maybe, but I doubt even Gervais would get away with mocking a guy who’s bald because of chemo treatments.
The Ultimate Ned's Kind of Guy
by Humma Kavula on Jan 18, 2010 3:13 PM PST up reply actions
Really – now I’m going to have to talk to my wife. It is my job to know everything about the Dodgers and her job to tell me who is married to whom and what is going on with the celebrities when I sit down with her to watch these shows. So scratch any previous comment I made.
I will say that Sofía Vergara was the hottest presenter of the night. She looked much better as a presenter then she does on the show, and she is plenty hot on the show. Robert Downy Junior is funnier then most comedian.
We watched Coraline after the show, man that was some scary shit for an animated movie.
"I will say that Sofía Vergara was the hottest presenter of the night. "
Seconded, which is saying something considering Christina Hendricks.
Beginning to feel like my $1.5 million guess for Kuo is too high. As good as Kuo is, it’s hard to find a comp with no closing experience who got paid much more than $1 million or so.
Heath Bell may end up as a good comp for two of our arb-eligible relievers. His $4 million deal for 2010, after one year as closer, pretty much guarantees Broxton $4.25 to $4.5 million.
But Bell’s 2009 deal was $1.255m. That was with no closing experience, all setup. Career stats through three years service time:
Bell: 279.2 IP, 2.8 BB/9, 8.9 K/9, 3.57 ERA, 113 ERA+
Kuo: 205.1 IP, 3.8 BB/9, 10.3 K/9, 3.77 ERA, 113 ERA+
Both have the two really good years just prior to hitting arbitration, but of course Kuo missed 3 months in 2009 so that has to count against him. I think Kuo struggles to match Bell’s $1.255m. I’m revising my 2010 Kuo estimate to $1 million.
Especially for a guy who may not pitch at all depending on how his arm reacts this spring. I always wonder what they mean when they talk about what it takes to get Kuo ready to pitch. I picture a medical massage group taking turns working on his left arm. I guess I could ask the trainer someday.
A few of the games I saw Kuo with the full wrap/ice on his arm/shoulder like you might see after a start for someone, but I don’t remember if that was when he was still on the DL and was working out at DS just before he came back.
by Eric Stephen on Jan 18, 2010 4:42 PM PST up reply actions
Per MLBTR
The Rangers agreed to terms with pitcher C.J. Wilson on a one-year deal worth $3.1MM, reports T.R. Sullivan of MLB.com. The deal represents a $1.25MM raise in base pay for the 29-year-old, who avoided his first potential arbitration hearing this time a year ago.
Good comp for Sherrill?
Sherrill is a “half” class ahead of Wilson in service time. Wilson has 4 years, but Sherrill is a “Super 4” if you will. Wilson, with part-time closing experience, went from $1.85m to $3.1m, a 68% increase. Sherrill made $2.75m in 2009, so if you give him a 68% increase he’s at $4.6m. I don’t think Sherrill will end up getting that much, because he’s pretty much locked into a setup role (unless he’s traded) so he won’t necessarily get the full closer bump.
by Eric Stephen on Jan 18, 2010 4:35 PM PST up reply actions
I had him at $4m, but I wouldn’t be surprised at anywhere from $3.75 to $4.5m
by Eric Stephen on Jan 18, 2010 4:37 PM PST up reply actions
Does his projected role matter in the arbitration hearing? I know save is a bs statistic but he has 56 career saves, including 20 last year before the trade and probably was on pace for 30 saves (Jim Johnson had 9 saves after Sherrill was traded.) He was a setup man to finish the year only because of circumstance – having Broxton as a teammate. I would expect his agent to argue strongly that Sherrill’s comps are closers, for closer money.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
Chad Qualls could be a comp on the other end
He’s at 5 yes service time and signed for $4.185m. So you’ve got qualls on the high end, CJ on the low, with Sherrill in between in service time. So slot Sherrill between $3.1 & $4.185 million
by Eric Stephen on Jan 18, 2010 5:44 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
interesting
but i doubt that he gets a real shot
Interesting
Wright has been used exclusively as a reliever, appearing in 120 games in his first two seasons in the Major Leagues with the Astros in 2008 and ’09, but he will begin camp in the mix to be a starter, challenging Bud Norris, Felipe Paulino, Yorman Bazardo and Wilton Lopez, among others.
Not exactly an awe inspiring group he’s trying to crack but that is probably what an Astro fan thinks when we talk about Elbert/McDonald/Haeger/Lindblom/Stults
paulino should be a lock
the guy has a 95 mph AVERAGE fastball…
I would like to think that Ned will make a move that none of us saw coming. Because of the pending divorce, I’m not sure this will happen. If it does, I hope it’s a positive one and not one trading away any of our younger players or prospects.
With that said, I vote for Sheets being brought onboard. I just think if Ned takes a risk, it will be on Sheets.
If Sheets is throwing free and easy
he is such a notch above the rest of the riff raff available any team that signs him is taking a huge gamble but one probably worth it.
Bedard won’t even be throwing for a while, who knows how his shoulder is going to rebound. I loved his stuff but rotator cuff surgery, why would you even gamble on that?
Where would we be today
if we had given in to Plaschke Fans’ quick fix obsession (i.e. trading Kemp, Kershaw, etc back in 2007)?
Those same people will look stupid three years from now when Gordon, Withrow, and Martin are big league stars.
I’ll be happy if all three are in the majors by three years from now. Saying they will (all) be stars is the opposite end of that spectrum.
by Eric Stephen on Jan 18, 2010 4:54 PM PST up reply actions
Really
what are the odds that even one of them becomes a star? 10% or less? Let us say that each of them is a top 50 prospect. Now take a look at the top 50 prospect list from 2005 and later and figure out how many of them became “stars” and more importantly were able to remain stars.
I don’t know if “star” was the right word choice. I didn’t necessarily mean All-Star. Just very valuable major leaguers.
Or not
if Withrow blows out his arm, Martin becomes a relief pitcher and Gordon is simply a fast SS with no other skills. I don’t recall Plashke railing to ever trade Kershaw in 2007.
No, but I do specifically remember him advocating trading Kemp in September ’07. I remember because it incensed me and that evening I went to the ballgame and bought a Kemp T-Shirt.
In 2007, when Plaschke wrote that, Kemp was finishing up his second partial season in the majors at age 22. In 311 PA as a Dodger, he had an OPS+ of 127. He had major league star written all over him.
Withrow, Martin, and Gordon all are very young and are making good progress and are good prospects, and I wouldn’t trade them. But they are sill prospects at this point. There is a lot of time for things to go wrong with them. Comparisons to Kemp ca. 9/07, when Kemp was already as close to a sure thing as you can get, are a little off.
The Ultimate Ned's Kind of Guy
by Humma Kavula on Jan 18, 2010 5:09 PM PST up reply actions
Sure I remember the whole
Kemp thing, but you can’t also throw in Kershaw. Sure Plaschke is an idiot and Hoffarth did advocate trading Kershaw for Halladay this past summer. Remember when Jay Bruce was the man and local writers were wondering why we couldn’t draft players like that? Would anyone trade Kemp for Bruce straight up today? No but Bruce and Gordon were considered locks for stardom in 2007. Remember when Greg MIller was Kershaw? Wouldn’t the Dodgers have been better off in the summer of 2003 if Evan had opened up his vaults and traded both Jackson and Miller for some huge hitting additions to that team?
Here’s a better example of rather extreme sports fandom. I found this doing a Twitter search for Broxton. From someone named CaliFaithful:
Kaeding you fcking LOSER! The fcking Jonathan Broxton of kickers. Great in the regular season. CHOKES when it matters. #Chargers
by Eric Stephen on Jan 18, 2010 4:57 PM PST up reply actions
I was pretty much in the Colts/Saints camp, but I have to root for Mark Sanchez on Sunday.
by Eric Stephen on Jan 18, 2010 5:03 PM PST up reply actions
This will be the toughest secondary Peyton has faced this year, but I can’t see him losing.
Colts vs. Saints in South Florida. Incredible shootout.
I’d be happy with any combination that did not involve Brett Favre.
by Eric Stephen on Jan 18, 2010 5:22 PM PST up reply actions
Kemp's contract details
from Dylan Hernandez:
If Kemp makes 600 plate appearances this year, he would increase his salary next year by $50,000. If he makes 650, he would earn another $100,000, and if he makes 675, yet another $150,000
Chance to increase 2011 by another $300k
Why?
Just curious about the reasoning. I am not sure I have an opinion on them, so I am curious about what informs yours.
Yup
seems to me that if a player has PA incentives he will ignore injuries that hamper his production.
the law of unintended consequences
we see it all the time in all aspects of life- someone comes up with a “Hey let’s do X to prevent Y.” Only problem- no one considered Z!
ok
I am not sure I buy into the incentive having that effect, but I see from where you are coming. I’d be curious to see real data on that.
And the specter of
only getting rested as a means of saving the club money. I seem to recall hearing that a lot about Freddy Sanchez in Pittsburgh.
FYI
Kemp had 657 PA in 2008, and 667 PA in 2009
by Eric Stephen on Jan 18, 2010 5:04 PM PST up reply actions
Perusing
the BBall top 25 as I’m starting to pay attention. No Pac 10 in the top 25? Has that ever happened? UCLA in last place? Are cats and dogs sleeping with each other?
I thought Portland was supposed
to give Gonzaga a run this year? Good thing MWhite is a Dodger fan or he’d be one depressed sports fan considering the teams he backs.
Tough loss at home against Gonzaga
Loss by 3 to a top 25 team is nothing for me to be too upset about. Got a 3 pointer off at the buzzer to try and force overtime; not a great look but the shot had a chance. The team just needs to win the WCC tourney, that’s all. Only Portland, Saint Mary’s and Gonzaga have winning records, so a top 3 finish and good seeding in conference tourney seems like a certainty— hopefully the team gets hot at the right time.
by Michael White on Jan 18, 2010 7:57 PM PST up reply actions
As for the other team I back
went to the Clips game today. A fairly easy win, a nice game for Kaman to get back into the lineup (and his jumper still looked great despite missing a week or so.) I’m 6-1 on the year at Clippers games I’ve gone too, so I’m not too depressed really :)
by Michael White on Jan 18, 2010 7:58 PM PST up reply actions
Today's game was as close to a sure thing
that the Clippers may ever get. Was anyone there?
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Jan 18, 2010 10:06 PM PST up reply actions
What happened to the
“trade some of the pen for a veteran starter” option? That seems to be the plan right now.
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