All aboard the Jacksonville Gravy Train
by meercatjohn on Jan 19, 2010 12:27 PM PST
Email
PrintA few members of the 2005 Jacksonville Championship team are now firmly on the gravy train.
Russell Martin comes on board for 5 Million for 2010.
James Loney hops on the caboose to the tune of 3.1
Chad Billingsley was already on board the Pullman car at 3.85
Jonathan Broxton was waiting for the chow car and he jumped on in fine style with a two year deal.
With those four in tow, the Dodgers got down to business by inking Matt Kemp / Andre Ethier to two year deals giving them some cost certainty for 2011.
Youth has been served and it is prime rib and champagne.
Eric will have the details and what it all means very shortly. Thanks to everyone for the tweets and to Dave for getting a fanpost up.
331 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
What a team
The 2005 Jax Suns, that is. Aside from the names above, they featured Tony Abreu, Joel Hanrahan, Edwin Jackson, Andy LaRoche, & Delwyn Young. Old friend Eric Hull was on the scene, as was Eric Stults. Megabusts Joel Guzman and Greg Miller are also familiar names, as is Mike “I Bet You Forgot About Me” Nixon.
Does Nixon still have eligibility at Arizona State for football? :)
by Eric Stephen on Jan 19, 2010 12:49 PM PST up reply actions
For those unfamilar with the Mike Nixon story
http://www.truebluela.com/2007/11/8/103927/198
I’m sure all of ten people read it back then.
Easily the best Dodger minor league team since the early 70’s when the 68 draft was kicking in.
http://www.truebluela.com/2008/2/22/125426/594
by meercatjohn on Jan 19, 2010 12:53 PM PST up reply actions
Delwyn Young
I couldn’t even remember whom we received from Pittsburgh. Evidently, it was Delwyn Young for Eric Krebs & Harvey Garcia. Still not quite sure the point of that move.
Yep…We got Krebs plus I believe one whole dollar (a procedural thing, because I believe the trade was technically for 2 PTBNL “or cash”) for Pee Wee, and Garcia was in a separate minor league move.
by Eric Stephen on Jan 19, 2010 1:05 PM PST up reply actions
21 players will be renewed in March
Including 25-man roster members, Kershaw, Beliasario and Troncoso.
If it isn't a bother
Where would one find the other 18?
They are all on the 40-man roster. They’ll be given split contracts in the spring.
by silverwidow on Jan 19, 2010 12:59 PM PST up reply actions
Actually its 22 players - 14 Players that are signed for 2010
Pitchers – Billingsley, Kuroda, Broxton, Kuo, Sherrill
Catcher: – Martin
Infield: – Loney, Furcal, Blake, Carroll
Outfield: – Ramirez, Kemp, Ethier, Repko
UNSIGNED 2010 PLAYERS:
Ronald Belisario
Scott Elbert
Javy Guerra
Charlie Haeger
Kenley Jansen
Clayton Kershaw
Brent Leach
Jon Link
James McDonald
Carlos Monasterios
Travis Schlichting
Eric Stults
Ramon Troncoso
Cory Wade
Armando Zerpa
A.J. Ellis
Lucas May
Ivan De Jesus
Blake DeWitt
Chin-lung Hu
Xavier Paul
Trayvon Robinson
Heyman says $11m for Broxton:
#dodgers doing good job of avoiding a lot of arbitration. get ethier done for $15.25 mil, 2 yrs and broxton $11 mil, 2 yrs
I respectfully disagree. The Dodgers paid what seems to be a precedent-setting price for someone with his service time and credentials. I don’t think it was a huge overpay, but it was an overpay IMO.
by Eric Stephen on Jan 19, 2010 1:12 PM PST up reply actions
I will have to explore this later tonight
by Eric Stephen on Jan 19, 2010 1:13 PM PST up reply actions
I was thinking he would be at least Markakis money which was like 17/2. But I do defer to those more versed in baseball economics.
It is a bit weird since Ethier was a Super Two, so he gets 4 years of arb instead of 3, but he’s still behind Markakis in terms of service time. The $17m for Markakis was for his 5th & 6th years (his final two arb years), whereas Ethier technically is getting paid for his 4th & 5th years, although it’s really in between (his 4.5 and 5.5 years, if you will). So Ethier is almost jumping a half a service class up with his deal.
by Eric Stephen on Jan 19, 2010 1:17 PM PST up reply actions
…but like I said earlier, I’m glad he was signed.
by Eric Stephen on Jan 19, 2010 1:13 PM PST up reply actions
I am surprised on the deals with Ethier and to some degree Kemp
Look, this is not Ryan Howard money nor is it like some of the FA signings but the Dodgers probably had precedent on their side to squeeze it down a few hundred thousand on both of those deals.
But this may help them down the road with their younger players by saying to them, if you perform, you will get paid top dollar, if not, we will battle you on salary.
He made $3.1 million
Last year he was well paid but I think $12 Million would be more in range. Think they are paying him for what is really worth? Then it is a little under.
Ben Sheets
They said 20 people from various organizations were at the Ben Sheets workout this weekend. Does anyone know if any Dodger scout was there?
The workout was today, at Univ. of Louisiana Monroe, and yes the Dodgers had a rep there
by Eric Stephen on Jan 19, 2010 5:05 PM PST up reply actions
That is hopefull
Tells us a little bit about where their heads are these days
Dodger Thoughts thread
had some quotes. He threw about 55 pitchers and shockingly said he felt great.
I saw a tweet earlier
that said he topped out at 91, but I’ll try to find it later. It was only his 4th time off a mound in forever, so 91 is just fine for now.
by Eric Stephen on Jan 19, 2010 5:08 PM PST up reply actions
Tweets on Sheets
First round on mound for Sheets all fast balls. Topped out at 91MPH. One scout I’ve talked with says he looks good and 91 is good for Ben.
Right now Sheets hitting 88-90 on the gun. Hitting most of his spots but erratic on a few.
From Trenni Kusnierek of the MLB Network.
.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
oh my
a 2 pitch pitcher whose fastball is 88 to 90.. ill pass
I heard
He started off shaky and finished up strong. I always like Sheets
There are some quotes in these comments. Search for “Sheets” or “Trenni”.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
Another report on Sheets
from Ed Price at MLB Fanhouse. He quotes a scout:
Even so, the scout said, Sheets “looked good physically and was in good shape” and should be equal to or ahead of other pitchers when spring training opens. “No red flags,” the scout said. “No restrictions. He threw nice and loose. It couldn’t have gone any better.”
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
Lincecum filed at $13m, Giants filed at $8m.
Both sides will argue against the midpoint ($10.5m). The Giants should settle because Lincecum will probably win if he goes to arb since he’s such a unique case. IF Ryan Howard got $10m with one MVP, Lincecum can easily argue his 2 CYAs are worth one dollar more than the midpoint ($10.5m), which is all it takes to win the case.
8 is too low considering that Howard got 10
And there are just no comps for such a young pitcher doing so well in this era.
He might not want a multi-year deal but this situation cries out for one.
Yep
The Giants would be in a much better spot if they offered $9m or $9.5m, but $8m is too low.
by Eric Stephen on Jan 19, 2010 1:24 PM PST up reply actions
Lincecum is a special case, but “insult” is too far. $8 million would easily break the record for a first-time arb pitcher, so it’s hard to call that an insult.
That said, there’s no way the Giants win that case.
by Eric Stephen on Jan 19, 2010 1:25 PM PST up reply actions
What would an extension look like?
2010: 10.5 million
2011: 14 million
2012: 18 million
2013: 22 million
Right, If I’m Timmah, I’d wait for at least one more arbitration ruling and force the Giants to start off at 14 million.
Given the way the Giants use him
if I was Timmy, I would look for guaranteed money as soon as it was right. If he could pull 55/4, I would think thats right. I don’t know how many 120+ pitch games and 220+ inning seasons are in that body.
Sure
But Tim can have it both ways.
He throws zero innings between now and the arb hearing, which he wins.
Then, after he wins, he says, look, we don’t need to do this. Let’s put together a 3/high-50s deal.
The Ultimate Ned's Kind of Guy
by Humma Kavula on Jan 19, 2010 1:38 PM PST up reply actions
Of course management, if they want to do a long-term deal, want to do it before having a salary decided at arbitration.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
Shoulda thought about that before submitting $8 million.
The Ultimate Ned's Kind of Guy
by Humma Kavula on Jan 19, 2010 1:47 PM PST up reply actions
This might be more of a comp for Billingsley next year.
SI_JonHeyman
verlander filed at $9.5 mil, #tigers at $6.9 mil
2 to 1 Verlander wins if it goes to a vote.
I think they will settle but I think the Tigers would win in arbitration. 90% raise is huge.
by Eric Stephen on Jan 19, 2010 1:54 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
Takashi Saito saved the Dodgers a lot of money
He got paid about $3.4M as a Dodger (minimum, $1M, $2M), was the cheap closer most of that time, and kept Broxton as a set up man, so that Broxton went to his first arb year (last season) with a small number of saves under his belt and got paid ~$1.9M based on his setup man credentials. Compare to, say, Bobby Jenks who got $5.6M and $7.5M for his first two arb years. Broxton for 2/11 sounds pretty good to me.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
+1
broxton should have been paid much more.. we gotta bargain
Seems particularly boneheaded, even for Sabean.
The Ultimate Ned's Kind of Guy
by Humma Kavula on Jan 19, 2010 2:02 PM PST up reply actions
LMAO hahahahaha
OMG Buster POSEY!!!! OMG
by hirambocachica on Jan 19, 2010 2:04 PM PST up reply actions
Today's signings
keep getting better and better
Look for Posey to get a call up in June to avoid having him attain super-Two status like Lincecum did. If the Giants call up Timmy in June 2007 instead of May 2007, they aren’t looking at arbitration with a two-time Cy Young winner yet.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
Its Sabean
I wouldn’t be shocked if Posey is the backup getting one start a week.
Well
Giants have had a bad offseason. I don’t hate the Huff signing as much as some — I think there’s some % chance that he’ll put up his 2008 numbers again. But even I agree that if you (a) start Posey and (b) give the Huff and Molina money to, say, Jason Bay, then maybe the Giants go to the postseason.
The Ultimate Ned's Kind of Guy
by Humma Kavula on Jan 19, 2010 2:16 PM PST up reply actions
1 year, $4.5M. Or $500,000 less than Russell Martin, both of whom put up 86 OPS+ last year.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
There’s some upside of Martin returning to a better than average hitter.
With Molina, you basically have to hope he somehow lucks to a better than .280 BA to be an average hitter.
http://www.mccoveychronicles.com/2010/1/19/1260583/giants-re-sign-bengie-molina
They be just a tad upset.
4.5 Million
We’ve never had an offensive prospect as highly rated as Posey before they hit the major leagues so we don’t have a comp. The closest we would have come to was Carlos Santana so while we laugh at the Giants, we can’t laugh to hard. We are paying our catcher 5 Million while his replacement gets ready to make sweet music for another team. At least the Giants still have Posey.
At least we traded Santana before most of the massive hype he built up. This is like blocking Joe Mauer because you have A.J. Pierzynski. And the Twins were smart enough to not pick the crappy vet over the better younger player.
I'm of the belief
that Posey is grossly overrated but this is still a bizarre decision by the Giants. You’d have thought they could have used that 4.5 Million to upgrade the offense somewhere. You guys can hate on Ned but at least he is not bringing in players like DeRosa, Sanchez, Molina, Urbibe .
posey isnt overrated..
i dont know where that is coming from
the circumstances are different between Posey & Santana
Signing Molina at least seems to be driven by baseball considerations, albeit ill-advised ones. The Dodgers, as has been said over and over, traded Santana when they (read: McCourt) could’ve just given up a little bit more money, and a far less promising prospect.
Truth be told, we don’t know who should be laughing at who just yet, and we probably won’t for a while. But I’m glad that at least the Dodgers have Casey Blake, and the Giants have just a little bit less money to spend on things that would have made more sense. We shouldn’t be any less outraged at the McCourts, but right now, this offseason is suddenly not looking all that bad.
I think a lot of folks here and other Dodger blogs would say had the Dodgers
Just offerred arbitration to Wolf (and to some extent, the still unsigned Hudson), then really, this has been the best one could have expected. Had even they just offered Wolf, it would have been enough for me.
by bhsportsguy on Jan 19, 2010 2:37 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
+1
I’m also fine with the idea of signing a Garland-type to be the #4 starter to break camp with.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
yeah, I agree
but just for the record, even though it’s a moot point now, I was surprised how many fans were willing to let Hudson go without even arbitration. He was a type A, and those two draft picks would have gone a long way (and the ~5% chance of him resigning wouldn’t have been so bad, either, all things considered). Just as comparison, the Mariners offered Beltre arbitration, and it is widely agreed on that he didn’t live up to expectations- and he was a type B!
What fans were willing to let him go?
Everyone I talked to on every blog and in person felt he should have been offered arbitration.
I saw a few comments here and there
that seemed to preemptively getting ready to justify it- Dodger finances are hurting, they might not want to take a chance on someone with injury risks, etc.. Even after it happened, I saw comments along the lines of, ‘I could understand maybe not offering to Hudson, but WOLF?!’
Again, it doesn’t really matter, as the consensus was about as strong as you’d ever see on the blogs. Even so, I still don’t think we were all quite as angry as MCC is right now.
But its not as if the Dodgers would have dealt Martin to play Santana
Even if they had Santana, its just more likely, Santana would have been dealt in some other deal.
The Dodgers have tied their wagon to Martin, I don’t know if another catching prospect would have made it on the club at least through Martin’s arbitration years.
Really
they are talking about AJ Ellis who actually sucks at hitting a baseball, what makes you think that if Santana had not lasted through 2008 he would not be in Posey’s position. Martin started tanking at the exact moment Santana was traded, I really doubt they trade him in the winter of 2008 after they witnessed his progression upward and Martins downfall.
Just saying we can’t laugh very hard we are going to be paying just about the same amount of money for the same kind of production with the big difference they still have their replacement.
I suspect only Ken Gurnick is talking about A.J. Ellis.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
One main thing about Dodger back up catchers
Short of injury, they are not going to play more than 25% of the time, if that. This is not the Angels, who split it up more. Thus, I don’t think the Dodgers really value whether or not their b/u catcher can hit. Also, Colletti and Torre both like vets on the bench rather than prospects.
And its hard for me to solely look at the Santana deal without the realizing without it, the Dodgers probably don’t make the playoffs in the last two years.
They could have gotten Blake without including Santana if the Dodgers could/would have taken on the $2M remaining on Blake’s 2008 contract.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
And Blake was an FA after 08. If you think Blake was a crucial part to the 09 season (WAR would agree, which ranks him as the 2nd best position player behind Kemp, as do I). It was still a separate transaction from the trade.
Casey Blake was a Dodgers in 09 because they offered the most money, not because he felt any sense of loyalty from the trade.
It’s worth something that Blake had the 2008 Dodger experience to give him an idea if he’d like it here in 2009.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
But also he played here which helped.
And I also tend to believe that prospects have value even if it is just cash value in a deal.
But let’s not go down that road again.
Buster_ESPN
Heard this: With the signing of Molina, the Giants are basically tapped out with their money, except for minor stuff. No Johnny Damon in SF.
Also, Molina apparently turned down $5m from the Mets.
by Eric Stephen on Jan 19, 2010 2:29 PM PST up reply actions
The Giants would have been way better off if they signed Manny to what the Dodgers did last year. If anything, it would have at least prevented the DeRosa and Molina signings.
True that
I said all last winter the Manny was exactly what that team needed. Then again he was also what we needed and still do.
Trenni tweets
on Ben Sheets
Just talked w scout, re:how Sheets looked. Good mechanics. Great shape. Is way ahead of where he’d be velocity wise at beg of normal springAnd later
Sheets threw about 55 pitches today. Consensus is he looked pretty good. Told me he feels great. Only 4th time he’s thrown off mound.I think this means the Dodgers will be outbid.
.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
please dont sign him
he is a 2 pitch pitcher who needs his 2 pitches to both be extrodinary to be good at pitching…. with this injury, he will not be the same opitcher and i do not believe he will be an ace or good anymore..
Full list of arb filings
including Ethier & Broxton since their 2-year deals aren’t yet finalized (physicals pending)
http://mlb.fanhouse.com/2010/01/19/players-teams-swap-arbitration-figures/
Here are the figures for Andre & Big John:
Ethier $7.65m / LA $6m
Broxton: $5.4m / LA $4.1m
Just to give you an idea of where the two sides started from.
By the way, I don’t think I need to tell you I think Andre would have lost his arb case if it got that far :)
seriously
7.65 million? for andre? isnt that a little too much for a DH playing the outfield?
yeah
just presenting an argument that the dodgers could say to counter his high salary..
really?
i thought that advanced stats like that were used these days
defense doesn’t talk about much in arbitration hearings outside of awards(Gold gloves for instance.)
Defensive reps can’t really be quantified.
They might be swayed by the Dodger-produced blooper reel though. ;)
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
complete with Yackety Sax in the background. :)
by Eric Stephen on Jan 19, 2010 2:56 PM PST up reply actions
Yeah but I would just show Ethier hitting some HRs
Against Lincecum and Wainwright and Pinero in Sept/October
I’d guess that Ethier’s $15.25 splits up something like 6.5 and 8.75.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
That seems about right
the 40/60 route gives us 6.1/9.15 for Andre, and 4.4/6.6 for Broxton.
by Eric Stephen on Jan 19, 2010 2:45 PM PST up reply actions
Is 6 close to the average salary?
I think the Dodgers probably offered figures that were industry standards and since Ethier’s and Broxton’s performances were good but not extremely good, they probably would have lost their hearings.
This sounds like one that should settle soon.
Joe Saunders, LAA / asked $3,850,000 / offered $3,600,000
I saw that
Also B.J. Upton was at $3/$3.3. If he or Saunders see the inside of an arbitration hearing, that’s a big fail.
by Eric Stephen on Jan 19, 2010 2:51 PM PST up reply actions
Gotta strike while the iron is hot though. Silver Slugger, Pepsi Clutch Performer, 6th place in MVP, 30/100. All good and shiny things. While I think he would have lost in arbitration, I don’t blame him for trying to get some while he can.
by Eric Stephen on Jan 19, 2010 2:53 PM PST up reply actions
Mathis may win only because
700K seems a little low
Jeff Mathis, LAA / asked $1,300,000 / offered $700,000
this has to be some sort of record..
mathis asking for almost Double
I doubt he’ll get more than $4m (aka CF Kemp money) in 2011. Unless of course he just explodes (which is a distinct possibility).
by Eric Stephen on Jan 19, 2010 2:54 PM PST up reply actions
Probably just hasn’t had the physical yet so the deal isn’t finalized.
by Eric Stephen on Jan 19, 2010 2:59 PM PST up reply actions
I'm just glad
they brought him up so early and blew out a few of FA years while he was still learning the game. He’ll be hitting his FA years at the same time as AROD won’t he?
I remember Andrew Shimmim just going nuts over Stephen Drew and saying he’s going to be the next superstar SS.
he was on track to be that
until last year.
Still might
2008 was only a year ago. Remember when Tulo sucked after his big year, then bounced back. So far he’s had two > .830 OPS seasons and two blah seasons. He could still reach the heights they expected him to.
we are gonna have kemp for a few prime years
uptons prime will not even be hit by the time hes a free agent..
Upton's prime
is going to be better then Kemps. Expect Upton to surpass Kemp offensively this year. The difference will be that Kemp is getting lots of value from being a center fielder.
If you aren't following Old Hoss Radbourn on Twitter
then you should be!
Good luck T. Lincecum. When I was arb eligible my GM gave me $5 and a bullet, said I could take one to the bank or the other in the ribs
All 3 years service time
Bills ($3.85m): 634 IP, 47-30, 3.55 ERA, 119 ERA+
Weaver ($4.265m): 671.2 IP, 51-27, 3.73 ERA, 121 ERA+
Saunders ($3.6/$3.85m): 571.1 IP, 48-22, 4.22 ERA, 106 ERA+
I think Weaver getting more than Bills is fine, but Saunders shouldn’t be in that conversation.
by Eric Stephen on Jan 19, 2010 3:08 PM PST up reply actions
J. D. Closser with a new minor-league contract and a spring-training invite. I guess somebody’s gotta catch all those pitchers.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
Torre called Lucas May an “offensive force” during spring 2008. I suppose he’s the true heir apparent.
Lucas May
The Silver God.
I am STILL not giving up on that.
The Ultimate Ned's Kind of Guy
by Humma Kavula on Jan 19, 2010 3:10 PM PST up reply actions
I'm never using the word God or metal
in describing a player ever again. Dodger fans are being punished for praying to that false idol.
Lucas May's caddy again,
just like 2009 when he filled in when he broke his wrist. Must suck when you haven’t seen the major leagues in three years after breaking in at the age of 24.
I predict this one gets settled
Matt Garza, TB / asked $3,350,000 / offered $3,350,000
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
Except Tampa Bay has a policy that the contract must get done before numbers are exchange and contracts are not settled after that!
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
I wonder if there was some angst about a longer deal or some incentives
Otherwise, what incentive is there for Tampa to do anything now.
TB did settle with three players, including Garza.
The Rays have a policy of not negotiating once salary figures are exchanged.
Garza will make $3.35 million after earning $433,300 in 2009. He and the Rays exchanged figures Tuesday, with both sides proposing the salary they settled on.I guess it isn’t a “negotiation” if both sides submit the same figure, so the Rays still stuck by their rule
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
Wow
What an odd thing. You have to figure they talked beforehand. I want to see a team offer more than the player :)
by Eric Stephen on Jan 19, 2010 3:20 PM PST up reply actions
They agreed on a one-year deal today. I bet that was just an error by Ed Price to include that.
by Eric Stephen on Jan 19, 2010 3:18 PM PST up reply actions
what the F?
what the F?
he will not even get that in his first year of FA… whatta crazy man.. non tender his ass next year for sure.. he will probably ask for 20 mil
Nice article on Stults
by Gurnick:
Stults said he was told by Colletti that the club wants him to be more aggressive in his approach to batters. Stults concedes that, lacking overpowering stuff, he tends to nibble. In addition to the cut fastball he picked up at the end of last season, he has been working via telephone with Dana Sinclair, the Canadian-based sports psychologist the Dodgers have on retainer.
“I think some of my inconsistency is that I get too fine and lose my aggressiveness at times,” he said. “So, a little bit, it’s a mental issue. Physically, it’s all there.”
I want to interview Dana Sinclair.
I can understand
telling guys like Kershaw, Billingsley, Withrow, and Elbert to not nibble, but Stults? Should he be throwing his stuff over the plate? Doesn’t he have to go the Glavine route to survive?
Fine line
He will get murdered more than most if he is constantly behind hitters 2-0 and 3-1, so he has to get his strikes. Making him be more aggressive probably does more for Stults to get him to concentrate more and focus, and perhaps is an attempt to build his confidence, leading to better control. I don’t think of it as making him place balls on a tee, but rather getting him to harness his control to be able to get strikes in certain quadrants of the zone, leading to better counts, and thus better results, etc.
by Eric Stephen on Jan 19, 2010 3:31 PM PST up reply actions
In other words, some balls are going to get hard and far, but they just want to make sure there isn’t a guy on first base that he walked when that happens :)
by Eric Stephen on Jan 19, 2010 3:32 PM PST up reply actions
cut fastball fastball change up and curve
this guy will be a GREAT number 5 starter if given the chance cause he has learned a new cut fastballl which might be the 2nd best pitch in baseball after the changeup.. which his is plus already… this guy is really worth a shot if he has developed a cut fastball thats any good..
ya
cliff lee dominated the dodgers with a 91 fastball a great cutter and a changeup… and curve… his cutter is what really killed us though
Is that similar to Mussina’s knuckle curve of yesteryear?
by Eric Stephen on Jan 19, 2010 3:42 PM PST up reply actions
Is that similar to Mussina’s Burt Hooton’s knuckle curve of yesteryear?
Fixed.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
Physically, it’s all there
Sounds like the opening line to a movie made in Simi Valley.
by Eric Stephen on Jan 19, 2010 3:41 PM PST up reply actions
My sleeper starter for the Dodgers agreed to arbitration at 2.95. So now my trade of Sherrill to the Yankee’s for Chad Guadin/David Robertson is ready to take place since all the numbers are done.
chad gaudin AND ddavid robertson for sherrill?
or one or the other?
Both
Sherrill has the cachet of being very successful in the AL East and I’d like to think he could bring back both of them.
unlike most trade proposals that get tossed out on fan sites
that one actually might make sense for both sides
I believe now the Dodgers are down to just five potential arbitration hearings next offseason (Martin, Loney, Bills, Sherrill, and Kuo), and of course it could be six if Jason Repko continues to defy the odds and stick around. :)
I am not counting Manny because he will be gone, and I bet Kuroda had that stricken from his contract when he came over
by Eric Stephen on Jan 19, 2010 3:59 PM PST up reply actions
Manny
1. Does he have that “no arbitration offer” clause? Or can the Dodgers offer him arb?
2. With the fact that he’ll be way overpaid and may accept, is there any chance that the Dodgers will offer him arbitration?
The Ultimate Ned's Kind of Guy
by Humma Kavula on Jan 19, 2010 4:04 PM PST up reply actions
I'm going out on the limb
so if we make a bet it won’t be the simple bet that you have yet to ever pay off:) You also lost the Martin arb bet. If we made one, I thought we did but I’m not sure.
I bet
that if Manny is traded, Plaschke will crow like a frickin rooster.
The Ultimate Ned's Kind of Guy
by Humma Kavula on Jan 19, 2010 4:12 PM PST up reply actions
If you think that
Do you also think that the Dodgers don’t make the playoffs?
Because frankly I like the 2010 Dodgers but not if they’re missing their best hitter.
The Ultimate Ned's Kind of Guy
by Humma Kavula on Jan 19, 2010 4:07 PM PST up reply actions
Troncoso probably just misses super-Two if he stays up all year. He was in the minors from 4/16 to 6/20 in 2008.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
Doubt it
He’s at 1 year, 119 days service time. I believe the lowest ever Super Two was 2 yrs, 129 days.
by Eric Stephen on Jan 19, 2010 4:03 PM PST up reply actions
Yep
Gotta have the magical “C” to get paid
by Eric Stephen on Jan 19, 2010 4:04 PM PST up reply actions
Man did we overpay
considering the precedents. Did Kim handle this because if she did, I’d love to hear the explanation.
Only explanation is that the Dodgers somehow thought the arbitrator would buy Ethier’s argument and give him 7.25 or whatever it was he asked for.
The Ultimate Ned's Kind of Guy
by Humma Kavula on Jan 19, 2010 4:20 PM PST up reply actions
Excuse me
Ethier submitted 7.65.
I think he’d lose that, but who knows.
The Ultimate Ned's Kind of Guy
by Humma Kavula on Jan 19, 2010 4:23 PM PST up reply actions
I was the one who thought we got off light before Eric pointed out Ethier’s service time. I had read somewhere that his best comparo was Markakis, who made $17m for his final two years of arb. I had expected to see a number in that neighborhood, so I was happy with $15m.
The Super Twos make things weird. Markakis’ “final two years of arb” are also his second and third years of arb, which is what Ethier just signed for. Maybe the arbitration process precedents have made it such that the first three years of arb are all considered comparable to one another and it’s the fourth year that is the oddball. In which case, Ethier’s contract looks OK next to Markakis’.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
What was the original prediction for Ethier?
The midpoint for 6 and 7.65 is 6.825. Is it possible that Ethier could have convinced an arbitrator that he was worth $1 more than that?
If so, good work by Ethier’s agent.
The Ultimate Ned's Kind of Guy
by Humma Kavula on Jan 19, 2010 4:31 PM PST up reply actions
I had him woefully low at $5m
(& Martin at $6m)
by Eric Stephen on Jan 19, 2010 4:33 PM PST up reply actions
Something spooked the Dodgers
That’s all I can think. They thought they were going to lose that arb case.
The Ultimate Ned's Kind of Guy
by Humma Kavula on Jan 19, 2010 4:37 PM PST up reply actions
Well...
he is “only” getting $6 million in 2010, which is exactly what the Dodgers offered. So maybe they went to him and said, look, we’ll only give your our offer this year, but we’ll guarantee 2011 at a 54% raise.
They probably sweetened it a bit with the incentives, too.
by Eric Stephen on Jan 19, 2010 4:40 PM PST up reply actions
But now he won’t feel the pressure to earn huge amounts of money by hitting the ball great distances in the bottom of the ninth inning!
Maybe he’ll only hit game-tying shots now to ensure extra innings so he can get more PAs for his incentives :)
by Eric Stephen on Jan 19, 2010 4:44 PM PST up reply actions
Oh, I see...
…people are looking at the number for 2011 (9.25) and finding it out of whack with the number for 2010 (6m) — and responding to that?
My thinking is that you can’t separate them. Ethier was going to be a Dodger this year and next even if he didn’t sign this deal. 15.25 million isn’t a bargain — unless the Dodgers went to arb this year and lost, which I think I’ll classify as “unlikely but possilbe” If there’s any reasonable chance that that would happen — Dodgers lose and pay 7.65 in 2010 — then the contract he signed is a good price.
The Ultimate Ned's Kind of Guy
by Humma Kavula on Jan 19, 2010 4:59 PM PST up reply actions
A 50%+ raise in arb years is perfectly normal. While I think $6m was a bit high, and a number the Dodgers likely would have won if they went to arb, the fact is they did offer it, so at that point Ethier was likely to get at least $9m in 2011 unless he got hurt and/or pulled a Russ.
Look at Kemp…if he gets all $300k of his incentives, his salary will increase by 81.25%. An increase like that for Ethier over $6 million would be $10.875. I doubt his incentives are that much ($1.625m) but it seems in line, especially once the Dodgers offered $6m.
by Eric Stephen on Jan 19, 2010 5:04 PM PST up reply actions
A huge Ethier argument, besides the “clutch” factor, or the Silver Slugger, was the Elias Rankings. Even though they use a pretty bizarre formula, it is accepted by baseball and used to rank free agents. But it also ranks all players, and Ethier’s score of 87.273 placed him 8th among all NL 1B/OF (based on 2008-2009 years), so he can rightly argue that, in the eyes of baseball, he’s one of the very best players in the league.
In fact, he ranked 19th overall in the NL, so he had that going for him…
by Eric Stephen on Jan 19, 2010 4:38 PM PST up reply actions
Thank God for TBLA
Without it, I would never understand any of this shit.
I like numbers, I hate rules
which is why I never bother to learn them. Who let lawyers into the game anyway?
I have the 2009 payroll estimated at $90.385m. Add another $300k or so if Mientkiewicz & Green make the team (they make $550k each if in majors vs $400k minimum)
http://www.truebluela.com/2009/1/14/720656/dodger-payroll
2010 is estimated at $88.242m
by Eric Stephen on Jan 19, 2010 4:20 PM PST up reply actions
…which leads me to believe, if we sign a pitcher, it will be for 2 years
by Eric Stephen on Jan 19, 2010 4:21 PM PST up reply actions
I think they try to fill the spot this year plus Kuroda’s absence in 2011. They will also need to replace Manny, but I bet they defer some of the money to the pitcher and end up with between $5-8m for that other OF spot next year.
by Eric Stephen on Jan 19, 2010 4:50 PM PST up reply actions
$5-8 million
is never going to get Werth back in 2011. Please find more cash.
Umm
I need you to sit down for this… :)
by Eric Stephen on Jan 19, 2010 5:04 PM PST up reply actions
I undertand the thinking
on covering themselves for Kuroda’s departure but that is where we disagree. I think Kuroda stays.
Meanwhile, Colorado signed Street and Betancourt, the former for three years and an option at $22.5M, the latter for 2yrs/$7.55M.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
king felix breakdown: $3.5M signing bonus, 6.5M in ’10, 10M in ’11, $18.5. in ’12, $19.5M in ’13, 20M in ’14
BTW, spreading out the signing bonus over the 5 years makes his 2010 contract at $7.2m, at four years service time. Makes the Tigers’ offer of $6.9m to fellow 4-yr man Verlander all the more reasonable.
by Eric Stephen on Jan 19, 2010 4:46 PM PST up reply actions
Kemp is going to be the first home grown position player to make
$10M a year prior to his FA eligibility. Gagne got $10M in his final year before FA.
Is he going to sign before Ethier in 2012? :)
by Eric Stephen on Jan 19, 2010 4:51 PM PST up reply actions
That is a good question but I consider Kemp
Homegrown since the Dodgers drafted him vs. Ethier who has played his entire MLB career with the Dodgers but was acquired via trade.
Good point…brain fart on my part, especially since I thought it was a brain fart on your part :)
by Eric Stephen on Jan 19, 2010 4:56 PM PST up reply actions
But some don't make that distinction
So your question is valid. Based on past history, Ethier will wait longer to sign.
Speaking of 1200
Bengie has 26 non-intentional walks in his last 1200 PA. :)
He also has 42 HR :(
by Eric Stephen on Jan 19, 2010 4:54 PM PST up reply actions
Thanks for mentioning both
many people forget to do that. He may not walk but when he swings, he goes big fly.
regarding OBP, we've gone from one extreme to another
whereas most people almost completely disregarded walks from a hitter’s perspective up until about 15 years ago, it now seems to be conventional wisdom that if you don’t walk, you’re awful- hence, all the angry comments on Amazin’ Avenue about the Mets signing Jeff Francoeur, their best hitter during the 2nd half of last season, to a one year deal with $5 mil.
Elias catcher ratings
From the link Eric pointed to:
NL CATCHERS
Rank Player Rank Type
1 Brian McCann 82.449 A
2 Geovany Soto 82.041 A
3 Russell Martin 81.837 A
Boy catchers were a sorry bunch last year.
The Ultimate Ned's Kind of Guy
Yes they were
but guys like Montero were very good. It will be interesting to see who bounces back the most between Soto and Martin. The power or the on base guy.
i think soto has a much better chance
martins power all seems gone… although i think he will hit around 300 next year
I dunno- if anything, it showed a bit of a resurgence towards the end
(not counting the playoffs, of course. :/ )
Martin
He has had one off year and he is still in his youth. I think something got in his head. I saw him hanging out with Gagne at the WS and I hear he is dating Gagne’s wifes sister.
Gagne is trying to make a comeback as a starter the last I heard in the Northwesten League.
If you include the last half of 2008, that’s 1.5 seasons of “off”.
Simers had reported the girlfriend/Gagne’s wife relationship, just as verification.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
Is there somewhere online
that has an Elias ranking crash course. I’ve been googling my ass off for the last ten minutes and can’t find any explanation as to how they arrive at their numbers or what they mean. I get that they set free agent types, but I’m curious about how they make their assessments.
The Elias formula is proprietary, but there is a Detroit Tigers blogger that does projections on Elias rankings and comes pretty darn close. His formula for starting pitchers is here, and you can see links there to relievers and position players.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
Link?
This I do not like. The last thing Russell Martin needs is incentives for increased playing time. What he really needs is a backup catcher that Joe Torre is willing to start around thirty times.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
Martin had 588 PA in 2009
He started 133 games, Aumus and Ellis (27 and 2 times respectively) started the other 29.
Heh
How about a reverse incentive? Every plate appearance he gets over 500, he has to give back $5,000.
The Ultimate Ned's Kind of Guy
by Humma Kavula on Jan 19, 2010 5:44 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Martin, who will turn 27 next month, has been in the league more than three years but was in his second winter of eligibility because, like Ethier, he was a "super two’’ last winter because of the number of days he played the season before. He gets a $1.15 million raise from last year’s $3.9 million salary. He’ll also get $50,000 each for 550 and 600 plate appearances, making his contract potentially worth as much as $5.15 million.
http://sports.espn.go.com/los-angeles/mlb/news/story?id=4839315
he was a "super two’’ last winter because of the number of days he played the season before
Kind of a jumbled explanation of Super Two by Tony Jackson. It has to do with total service time, and if you are in the top 17% of players with at least 2, but not 3, years of service, you are a Super 2. The only “season before” caveat is that you have to have at least 86 days of service time in the immediate season prior.
by Eric Stephen on Jan 19, 2010 7:28 PM PST up reply actions
Thanks!
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
by David Young on Jan 20, 2010 11:22 AM PST up reply actions
BP’s Jay Jaffe has a Dodger story up (not behind the wall). I don’t know that it is all that interesting, but there two little nuggets I liked.
The first was a “bang for the buck” comparison of the Fox and McCourt years, right now each is for the same number of years:
The other was regarding the contributions, measured in WARP, of controlled-cost players vs. open-market players:Years Win Pct Playoff G Payroll%* Avg. Attendance
1998-2003 .524 (11) 0 (19T) 149% (3) 3.08 million (6)
2004-2009 .528 (7) 23 (7) 125% (6) 3.70 million (2)
*: Percentage relative to MLB-average Opening Day payroll
The Dodgers ranked just 13th in the majors in WARP received from non-market salaries (NM), players either in their pre-arbitration or arbitration-eligible years. On the other hand, they ranked third in the majors in WARP received from auction-market salaries (AM), players with enough service time to be eligible for free agency or to have come from Japan or other foreign markets.
While the Dodgers received more value from their non-market players than three of their four NL West competitors (all except the Rockies), their advantage over the Giants, who received the least value from such young ’uns, amounted to less than three wins. On the other hand, the Dodgers got nearly as much value from their auction-market players as the rest of their NL West competitors combined. Of their eight most valuable players according to WARP, five (Hudson, Blake, Furcal, Ramirez, and Wolf) were free-agent signings.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
Good stuff on Billingsley
by noted college basketball blogger Diamond Leung:
http://diamondleung.tumblr.com/post/343649556/billingsley-talks-about-his-struggles
I’m working on an arb story, and will include that link, plus details too. Up in a little bit.
by Eric Stephen on Jan 19, 2010 7:51 PM PST up reply actions
New story up
http://www.truebluela.com/2010/1/19/1261117/dodgers-sign-all-remaining
Lot’s of great discussion here today. Well done, peeps.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on True Blue LA
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
In Association With
Big League Stew - MLB - Yahoo! Sports
- Photo: Padres fan regrets letting mother capture moment with Trevor Hoffman
- Marlins agree to unretire No. 5 for Logan Morrison, who will honor his father’s favorite player
- Weatherman Derek Holland does Dallas TV
- Ask Alex: Will Julio Teheran or Matt Moore win rookie of the year?
- Ku Klux Klan, umpires and bowling: Why the minor leagues tossed out Jim Evans academy
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
