Padilla or Garland - You make the call
by meercatjohn on Jan 21, 2010 9:14 AM PST
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PrintWith Pineiro and Doug Davis gone. With Sheets deemed to expensive or to risky, it looks like we are down to either Padilla or Jon Garland.
Kensai on 1/15 did the breakdown with Piniero/Garland/Padilla/Looper and covers it nicely so click on the link and give it a read. However I don't want to just link to him so I'll make a few comments myself without all the future projections.
Garland Pro Argument:
- Under innings eater, Jon Garland is the poster child. Has pitched over 190 innings every year since 2002.
Player IP From To W L W-L% ERA ERA+ Mark Buehrle 1788.1 2002 2009 115 88 .567 3.85 120 Livan Hernandez 1734.2 2002 2009 99 98 .503 4.46 97 Javier Vazquez 1721.2 2002 2009 101 96 .513 4.05 110 Roy Halladay 1710.1 2002 2009 130 59 .688 3.13 144 C.C. Sabathia 1709.0 2002 2009 119 76 .610 3.54 123 Barry Zito 1692.0 2002 2009 109 94 .537 3.94 112 Roy Oswalt 1661.2 2002 2009 123 67 .647 3.27 132 Derek Lowe 1650.2 2002 2009 121 85 .587 3.89 114 Jon Garland 1642.2 2002 2009 107 87 .552 4.38 105 Jamie Moyer 1616.2 2002 2009 107 78 .578 4.21 104Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 1/21/2010.
Garland Cons:
- While he does pitch a lot of innings, most of those innings are merely average. At least they are aren't bad, but they aren't inspiring either.
- That is it, Kensai covers the rest so anything I say would be merely repeating what he said.
Padilla Pros:
- Pitched two of the best playoff games of the last 20 years, and did it against a red hot Cardinal team, and followed that up against one of the best offensive teams in baseball.
- His headhunter rep might help out a rotation not known for pitching inside
- Fitted in with Manny and company
- Has always pitched in offensive parks(Arizona, Phillie, Texas) until he found himself in Dodger stadium.
- For some reason he found his dominance again while wearing Dodger Blue. After averaging only 4.9 K's per nine innings for the Rangers, he jumped that K Rate to 8.7 for the Dodgers.
Padilla Cons:
- While he was on his best behavior for the Dodgers he has a history as long as Milton Bradley. When your teammates applaud the GM for trading you, it is a fairly good sign you are not a clubhouse guy.
- He's been a lousy pitcher most of the time since 2003. In his first year in Texas (2006) he was okay but nothing to get excited about. Very very good chance his time with the Dodgers was an aberration.
- Has bad aim with a gun
- His headhunter rep caused problems for his teammates in Texas. Some players have reps they don't deserve but Padilla does deserve his. He has double digit hit batsman in 5 of the last 9 years, including leading the league with 17 in 2006. Since 2002 he leads all pitchers in hit batsman by a fairly large margin.
Player HBP From To ERA+ Vicente Padilla 98 2002 2009 100 Tim Wakefield 85 2002 2009 110 Carlos Zambrano 80 2002 2009 129 Jeff Weaver 77 2002 2009 90 David Bush 73 2004 2009 94 John Lackey 73 2002 2009 117
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 1/21/2010.
Any way you make the call:
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Comments
I'm sure I'm not the only who will say, "These are the choices?"
but it does appear that these are the choices indeed… so I’d say Padilla, because he seemed content in LA so maybe he’ll grow up a bit or be a bit steadier emotionally since he’s more comfortable there than he has been. And he has better stuff than Garland. As a 4th starter at least… He’ll probably bomb out in every third start but be great in the other two.Garland seems like he’ll be mediocre in three but capable of losing all three.
Where’s the “Pay for Ben Sheets” option? ;-)
There's no need to fear, Underdog is here! / Broncos/Dodgers fan in Niners/Raiders/Giants country, and damned proud of it.
you’ve got all the main rivalries covered to pis off people up there ;). Now just add the Kings to your arsenal…er, the hockey kings.
I'm nobody's fool, least of all yours
by BoulderDodger on Jan 21, 2010 9:30 AM PST up reply actions
Heh
I am a Sharks fan, at least, so that rules that out. And go ’Quakes!
But yeah, Lakers, too… (but then I’m not alone in that department up here.)
There's no need to fear, Underdog is here! / Broncos/Dodgers fan in Niners/Raiders/Giants country, and damned proud of it.
I voted for Garland, but think we will end up with Padilla.
To me, Padilla is the most volatile; he has the highest upside, but also the lowest downside. If I want volatility, I let Stults and the young guys have both back end rotation spots.
To fill what we need, which is simply someone who will throw 6 innings just about every start, and end up as league average or slightly below, the choice is Garland.
Hard to disagree with this, too
But aren’t the young guys pretty much being left to the 5th starter slot, not 4, at least for now? I’d frankly expect more from Elbert, McDonald, and Haeger, and company, for 4th AND 5th spots over Padilla or Garland, but since they want another veteran in the mix…
I do still vote Padilla though, I just went by “feeling” that he’ll pitch well when stabilized by being comfortable. And my feelings usually aren’t wrong! More than 50% of the time!
There's no need to fear, Underdog is here! / Broncos/Dodgers fan in Niners/Raiders/Giants country, and damned proud of it.
y tu Eric?
I voted for Garland (big surprise), but I am not married to that choice. I wouldn’t be pissed if we went with Padilla instead. I think you end up getting similar value come seasons end, no matter which of the two you sign. Padilla with the higher ceiling, lower floor… and Garland as your consistent 2+ WAR pitcher. All things being equal, I think you sign the one who comes the cheapest with the least number of years (that may be equal too).
vr, Xei
Dang
that was a surprising comment to me. I’d have bet 20 of Eric’s pounds that you’d have come down hard on the Garland side. Can’t trust you anymore.
I completely
agree with your last sentence here. If the price is cheap, than having someone consistent in the #4 slot is pretty valuable.
by robotmadeofnails on Jan 21, 2010 10:40 AM PST up reply actions
ugh
if only to make me feel better about losing abreu I choose Garland, and pray that he’s at least slightly above average this year.
Or at least be Garland in 08’ where he was terrible but the offense propelled him to a 14-8 record!
I'm nobody's fool, least of all yours
I would not be down with that, although maybe he rekindles some magic by joining his old Wichita State buddy Casey Blake. :)
by Eric Stephen on Jan 21, 2010 9:37 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
My hands are covering my eyes
when it comes to Looper.
by meercatjohn on Jan 21, 2010 9:39 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Why do media hacks say that if the season started right now, Russ Ortiz would be in the rotation? Is this just ignorance?
They might be right
Only a year ago Russ Ortiz managed to make teh Astro rotation. Why so far fetched to think he won’t do it again. He won’t last but I could easily see them giving him a spot to start the year.
The best Ortiz can hope for is the Jeff Weaver role, but even if he does win that I don’t think he’ll last very long.
by Eric Stephen on Jan 21, 2010 9:45 AM PST up reply actions
For those of you who monitor the pitches did you notice any change in what Padilla was throwing as to why his K Rate jumped so drastically while with the Dodgers?
Per Fangraphs
averaged 91.6 MPH in Texas, 93.2 in LA
by Eric Stephen on Jan 21, 2010 9:43 AM PST up reply actions
Better bullpen in LA
can afford to burn out earlier and let the bullpen pick him up.
/shot in the dark
by Michael White on Jan 21, 2010 9:44 AM PST up reply actions
I would guess
that in the world of hitting a baseball, an increase of 2 MPH is quite significant if it also comes with command.
how is that possible?
it was at the end of the season as well. so you’d think maayybe it should be even below his average
I'm nobody's fool, least of all yours
by BoulderDodger on Jan 21, 2010 9:45 AM PST up reply actions
Also threw his curve and cutter more (but not a ton on the cutter; still more than double what he threw in Texas, and was more successful with those pitches than any other.
by Eric Stephen on Jan 21, 2010 9:47 AM PST up reply actions
I voted for Padilla
but there’s not a ton of difference between the two. I’m more of a “when in doubt, go with the strike out pitcher.” When Padilla is “on” he’s better than Garland; Garland is more steady and average.
Truthfully, I’d just go with the cheaper option.
that's a good point
i’m all about the cheaper option at this point
I'm nobody's fool, least of all yours
by BoulderDodger on Jan 21, 2010 9:43 AM PST up reply actions
Yeah
If there’s a significant difference between the two in price, I’d take the cheaper one as well.
by Eric Stephen on Jan 21, 2010 9:44 AM PST up reply actions
K9 of over 7 in 2006. Full year of work is pretty solid.
Not the near 9 he got in LA, but he’ll still strike out more than Garland…
by Michael White on Jan 21, 2010 9:45 AM PST up reply actions
Garland also increased his K Rate with Dodgers
from 4.5 to 6.4 and that was without switching leagues? Hitters eye a problem for hitters?
It was only six starts, but he faced:
Arizona twice (most Ks in NL)
Pittsburgh twice (lg avg Ks, 10th in NL)
Padres (7th in Ks in NL)
Giants (8th in Ks in NL)
by Eric Stephen on Jan 21, 2010 9:51 AM PST up reply actions
All this talk
about Loney and his home/road splits has made me wonder if there is something about Dodger stadium that makes the hitters eye a little more difficult…just speculating
by robotmadeofnails on Jan 21, 2010 10:42 AM PST up reply actions
Doesn’t seem to bother Ethier though.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
by David Young on Jan 21, 2010 12:36 PM PST up reply actions
Michael White is in house
You will notice that the name looks great in TrueBlue but will stand out like a sore thumb when you post elsewhere.
Jerry Crasnick chimes in
on ESPN.com to say for Brad Ausmus, it’s San Diego, Los Angeles, or retirement.
That's a great read
He basically sums up the remaining starting pitchers thusly:
Who’s out there? Right-handers Ben Sheets, Jon Garland, Vicente Padilla, Pedro Martinez, Braden Looper, John Smoltz, Chien-Ming Wang, Livan Hernandez, Jose Contreras and Todd Wellemeyer, and lefties Jarrod Washburn, Erik Bedard and Noah Lowry.
And still mentions the Dodgers as possible with Sheets, but I still think that is, sadly, a pipe dream…
There's no need to fear, Underdog is here! / Broncos/Dodgers fan in Niners/Raiders/Giants country, and damned proud of it.
And speaking of which
don’t forget Wang as a darkhorse late add to Dodger rotation. I’m pretty sure they’re not forgetting him. Which is why they may sign one of Padilla or Garland, and then Wang later when he’s ready, and have them duke it out with the Dodgers young ’uns. Just a thought.
There's no need to fear, Underdog is here! / Broncos/Dodgers fan in Niners/Raiders/Giants country, and damned proud of it.
It is a good read
and for many of these guys you can’t really see a home for them. Just makes me wonder more and more why Ned jumped on Carroll so early when he knew there would be bargains by this time of the year.
by meercatjohn on Jan 21, 2010 10:19 AM PST up reply actions
Agreed
I wonder what Tejada would go for. I am not sure if he is mentally ready for his decline but I would love to see him as utility guy for the right price. I wonder if he can play 1b.
Is That All There Is?
I have the answer to the question—-Josh Lindblom. Put him in the back of the rotation and let him pitch. This guy is one tough cookie and has the tools and the body to make him Billz+. Yeah, I know he’s young. But all the other guys are either way too young (McDonald) emotionally, or don’t have the upside that JoshL has. Elbert? Haeger? Please.
"It's a cookbook!"---The Twilight Zone
I don’t understand your argument against Elbert. And McDonald as a starter is far too small of a sample size.
by silverwidow on Jan 21, 2010 10:09 AM PST up reply actions
The Dodgers have been doing pretty well
easing their pitchers into the bigs. McDonald, Elbert, and Haeger may not have been dominant or amazing, but they at least have some idea of what to expect. I would prefer to see Lindblom out of the bullpen with maybe a few spot starts throughout the season.
Some choice!??
Like asking, “Do you prefer electric chair or gas chamber?”
My expecatation
is that all these guys want two years deals and Ned is talking one year. When they realize they better find a home then maybe they call back.
by meercatjohn on Jan 21, 2010 10:20 AM PST up reply actions
Since Xei is around
What about Guo in the rotation??
There, I said it.
by silverwidow on Jan 21, 2010 10:24 AM PST reply actions 1 recs
I worry about Kuo being able to pitch six innings over a 10-day period, let alone a single day! :)
by Eric Stephen on Jan 21, 2010 10:26 AM PST up reply actions
I voted Garland
because I am just concerned that Padilla, while the more skilled pitcher, will cause problems eventually.
It’s a real shame we can’t get one of Bedard/Sheets and one of Garland/Padilla because I think that would be a very successful combo of FA options.
I voted Padilla
though I wouldn’t be unhappy with Garland. I had never really seen much of Padilla prior to his time with the Dodgers, so I was surprised to see the amount of movement on his pitches. He has the potential to be a #2 but he likely just a #4. I must say that I am a little partial to Garland because he is a Dodger fan and genuinely seems like he wants to be on this team.
I voted for Garland
just because I think the consistency is more of a pro for me than the possible upside with Padilla. But if either one is cheap, I would not complain about either one signing with us.
by robotmadeofnails on Jan 21, 2010 10:44 AM PST reply actions
cant decide
garland eats innings and pitched to his average credentials while with us last year. home town guy,
padilla pitched great in the playoffs but will probably explode emotionally at some point,
so i flipped a coin and it landed on the edge, I take that to mean who ever is cheaper. Will Garland give us a AZ buyout $ discount? Does Padilla come cheap becuase at least some teams will not even think of him because of the TX experience?
My guess is Garland will be cheaper so I vote for him
Speak of the devil
from Gurnick:
The Dodgers and Vicente Padilla have agreed on a one-year contract for a $4 million base salary
It's about what we expected
yah? It’s not too expensive… 1 yr deal low commitment.
Any chance they still try for Sheets, or should I just say, sheet, and give up.
There's no need to fear, Underdog is here! / Broncos/Dodgers fan in Niners/Raiders/Giants country, and damned proud of it.
I’m all for that. one year of Padilla is just fine and dandy with me. Hopefully he’ll show us what he could do when he wearing a Dodger uni than any other uniforms he wore.
by Julio Nievas on Jan 21, 2010 11:05 AM PST up reply actions
Props to Ned for pulling off a one-year.
by Julio Nievas on Jan 21, 2010 11:06 AM PST up reply actions
I was just about to vote for Padilla
My reasoning being that if it is somewhat agreed that they are going to have similarly average seasons (albeit higher upside/more risk with Padilla), at least Padilla has shown that he can pitch well in the playoffs. I don’t ever want to see Garland start a playoff game.
NPUT
http://www.truebluela.com/2010/1/21/1263595/dodger-ink-padilla
Might as well close this poll and thread. Wow, that happened fast.
dodgers
Im glad we got Padillia—I would still check out Wang- we shouldnt have traded Pierre-We need another player like Pierre-Manny is older-start the season with what we have and keep an eye out to trade for a number one starter-see what mcdonald will do-maybe even check out Pedro martinez-but he probably wants too much-Wang could be the one or also see what Ben Sheets wants—I would really go after Zack from KC-put together a good trade package even 4 top rookies or young players for him
by spc7@verizon.net on Jan 24, 2010 9:51 AM PST reply actions
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