SBNation HOF Vote

I hope you meant Tim Raines and not Harold Baines. Neither one of us have ever argued for Harold Baines.

but he is eligible. You can’t take that away from him. I’m not sure what you are complaining about?

McGwire SPECIFICALLY not getting in has a lot to do with his steroids usage, but I’m not 100% opposed to voting for a known user (as much as I hate the whole steroids thing). McGwire would be getting in on his homeruns only (ok, he knew how to draw a walk, too, but he’s not getting into the Hall based on that), whereas Bonds, A-Rod, and Clemens were in a different class of ballplayers.

I freely admit that this is not the most scientific measure- in fact, it’s not scientific at all- but Hall of Fame voting, like MVP voting, is not 100% scientific. I just hope someday we get more clarity on the issue- who was using what, when they were using it, etc.- though I’m not holding my breath.

in 2010 the answer is yes. I expect more information to keep coming forth as players retire and start divulging previously uncorraborated information. Until then I’m leaving anyone tainted off but I fully reserve the right to change my mind. It would be different if they didn’t get in and then fell off the ballot but since they will be there again I don’t feel the need to vote for them yet.

OPS+ is amazing, and has great career total numbers, but he was so bad/injured for the years of his prime 91-94 that it really sticks with me. It is a real dilemma because I am not a “ban steroid users guy” but it was just so obvious.

But I have an open mind. That is why I say ask me next year…

The only thing I can think of for why Trammel doesn’t get more love is perhaps due to his disastrous stint as a manager. Certainly that shouldn’t have any effect at all, but managing the Tigers when they were 1 game away from setting the single season record for losses and then managing two mediocre seasons, then Jim Leyland takes essentially the exact same team (as the mediocre season, not the near record setting season) to the World Series. Again, that obviously shouldn’t factor in, but for many people, that is likely the most recent memory they have of Trammel.

I completely had a brain fart on Trammell. I should have included him.

at age 30 doesn’t help. He had some good years after that ERA+ wise but after six years of 130 plus ERA+ he never touched more then 115 after the age of 30. He was good but he wouldn’t even make my HOM (Hall of Merit)

The filing period is 1/5-1/15, but figures are submitted on 1/19.

Miller was not in 04 draft was he?

I would tend to agree with the 25 man team and that I want to write the poem about Gagne.

to watch King Kong come to the plate but of course he was not close to being a HOF. I don’t agree with your perception of what makes a HOF. Just because you got thrills as a kid when watching a player does not mean they should win over players who didn’t excite you but were clearly better players.

In baseball history, I don’t have my SABR record book handy but I think that era of Tigers had many key guys together for several seasons.

that whole thing should be in quotes.

Nicely said.

Unfortunately it seems that this thinking is not held by the majority of people in the baseball world. Talent levels, equipment, ballparks, and many other things have changed so much over the history of baseball that it really does not seem logical to try and compare head-to-head the feats of players in different time periods.

on the Crime Dog from his HOF series using JAWS

Which brings us to Fred McGriff, the Crime Dog. A ninth-round pick by the Yankees in 1981, McGriff’s big break came six months later when he was traded to the Blue Jays along with Dave Collins, Mike Morgan, and cash for Dale Murray and Tom Dodd. Nonetheless, he made slow progress to Toronto, finally cracking the big-league lineup as a DH in 1987, the year the Jays lost their final seven games to fumble the AL East flag into the hands of the Tigers. McGriff hit .247/376/.505 with 20 homers that year, the first of 15 seasons in which he would reach a plateau. Only 13 other hitters have equaled or surpassed that feat; 10 are in the Hall of Fame, and the other three are Barry Bonds, Ken Griffey Jr., and Jim Thome. The next year, McGriff began a string of seven straight 30-homer seasons, the first five of which were worth at least 5.9 WARP. He won the 1989 AL home run crown with 36 dingers, and won the 1992 NL crown for hitting 35 with the Padres in 1992, making him the first player to top both circuits (McGwire would become the second) and the last player for 16 years to lead a league with less than 40.
McGriff was traded to San Diego in the aforementioned December 1990 trade (with Tony Fernandez, for Roberto Alomar and Joe Carter)—a star-studded trade if there ever was one. The move helped the Blue Jays win two World Series in 1992 and 1993, but McGriff missed out on those parties, though he was swapped-part of the Padres’ infamous fire sale—to the defending NL champion Braves in July 1993. Those Braves were 53-40, eight games behind the Giants in the NL West standings when the deal went down; they would go a remarkable 51-18 the rest of the way, winning the West before being bounced by the Phillies in the NLCS. Settling in as one of the cornerstones of a dynasty, McGriff hit .310/.392/.612 with 19 homers in 291 plate appearances with Atlanta, and set a career high with 37 homers overall. Though the strike wrecked the 1994 season, McGriff would be part of three straight division champs (1995-1997) and back-to-back pennant winners in the first two of those years. He bopped a pair of homers and slugged .600 in both World Seres, the first of which the Braves won over the Indians, and the second of which they lost to the Yankees. Throughout his career, McGriff had an excellent track record in October, hitting .303/.385/.532 with 10 homers in 50 postseason games.
McGriff slumped to 22 homers and 0.9 WARP in 1997, and after the season the Tampa native was traded to the expansion Devil Rays (a transaction that received a decidedly lukewarm reception from one Chris Kahrl in these pages). He spent three and a half years with the godawful Rays, enjoying a mini-renaissance (34 homers, 2.7 WARP) in 1999 but otherwise merely clocking time in front of sparse crowds. After some no-trade clause-based resistance, he was swapped to the Cubs in July 2001, and while he again hit well upon switching teams, he couldn’t spur them to the postseason. After his 10th and final 30-homer season in 2002, he bounded to the Dodgers and then back to the Devil Rays before hanging up his spikes.
For years now, there’s been talk of the fact that with his 493 homers, McGriff might unseat Dave Kingman (442 homers) as the player with the highest total not to make the Hall of Fame. Jose Canseco (462 homers) has already erased the so-called “Kingman Line,” but then his transgressions insured he’d never make Cooperstown anyway. There’s bound to be a certain nostalgia among voters for McGriff, who hit the majority of his shots before the pharmaceutically-fueled assault on the single-season home-run record began, and an acknowledgment that the round-numbered milestone he fell short of means less today than it did a generation ago.
Even so, McGriff doesn’t have a particularly strong case for Cooperstown. Despite the two home-run titles, he’s well short of the Black Ink of a typical Hall of Famer (though that Jamesian metric fails to adjust for expansion). He never won an MVP award (his top single-season WARP total of 6.8 isn’t quite MVP territory), and while he did place in the top 10 in the voting in six straight seasons (1989-1994), he only cracked the top five in 1993. JAWS-wise, that stretch of six-win seasons still isn’t enough for him to measure up to the average Hall of Famer on peak score, and he’s even further below the standard on career WARP. The shape of his JAWS line is very similar to that of Tony Perez (59.0/41.3/50.2), but that particular Doggie had five pennants, two rings, and a more famous dynasty to his name. The guess here is that he’ll fall far short, but linger on the ballot for a long time.

You just like him because he led credence to the Tom Emanski videos.

on the basketball news. To bad it looked like they could have been a contender.

30 home runs at Coors?

What will happen with Iannetta?

You are breaking that “news” for me. It won’t be hard for Matt Kemp to treat her better than her last boyfriend did.

http://www.tmz.com/tag/mAtt+Kemp/

When that whole Chris Brown thing broke, I wrote on my Facebook status that Rihanna needs to find a better man to stand under her umbrella-ella-ella. Nice to see she’s taken my advice!

Just to imagine for a sec that this is all related to Dodger baseball somehow, perhaps it should be encouraging for the long term that Matt seems to be enjoying the LA lifestyle quite a bit. Let’s just hope he doesn’t enjoy it TOO much- I don’t want this to turn into the part of Behind The Music that goes, “And just when everything seemed to be going Matt Kemp’s way…”

Boy, who’s that clown who voted for Harold Baines?

{shakes head in shame}

Is the minimum 70 or 75% for induction? I forget.

one was a SS and the other was a 1st baseman.

Not to go off on too separate of a tangent, but I would vote in Rose but not Joe Jackson, on the grounds that Rose gets in as a player (his sins were as a manager.) Jackson admitted to doing something that could have de-legitimized the entire sport at that time, and he did it as a player.

Alomar over Larkin? Some would consider Larkin the greatest all around player of his day. Who could run, play defense, hit with power, on base, ba better then Larkin?
Raines can’t even make it here? I’m horrified, he’s one of the 10 best left fielders to ever play the game no matter what BH says about cross era’s.
Per Jay Jaffe of Baseball Prospectus:

Raines’ 1985 season, in which he hit .320/.405/.475, ranks as his most valuable, worth 9.5 WARP (third behind Dwight Gooden’s amazing 11.7 and Pedro Guerrero’s 9.7). He followed that up by winning the NL batting title in 1986, hitting .334. Just 27 at the end of the season, he reached free agency that winter, but suspiciously received no contract offers; baseball was in the midst of its collusion era. Forced to return to the Expos, he was ineligible to play until May. Without benefit of spring training or a minor league stint, he stepped into the lineup on May 2, turning a Saturday afternoon NBC Game of the Week against the Mets at Shea Stadium into The Tim Raines Comeback Extravaganza by bookending a first-inning triple off of David Cone and a 10th-inning, game-winning grand slam off of Jesse Orosco into a 5 3 4 4 boxscore line. Later in the summer, he would put on a late-inning tour de force at the All-Star Game, winning MVP honors. Raines set career bests for on-base and slugging percentages in 1987, hitting .330/.429/.526 with a career-high 18 homers and 50 steals. Even missing a month, he led the league in runs scored with 123. His 7.7 WARP ranked fifth in the league, but the MVP Award notoriously went to Dawson, whose paltry 3.3 WARP ranked 44th. Raines only finished seventh in the award voting, part of a long-standing pattern of neglect by the BBWAA voters; though he received MVP votes in seven separate seasons, he never finished higher than fifth.
Beyond that 1983-87 peak, injuries cut into Raines’ playing time. He averaged just 133 games over his next six seasons, and was traded in December 1990 to the White Sox in a five-player deal centered around Ivan Calderon. He spent five years on the South Side, the most valuable of which was his 1992 campaign (6.8 WARP). He actually hit better in 1993 (.306/.401/.480 with 16 homers), helping the Sox win the AL West but missing a month and a half due to torn ligaments in his thumb. Traded to the Yankees in December 1995, he was forced into a fourth outfielder/elder statesman role due to hamstring woes, but earned two World Series rings while hitting a cumulative .299/.395/.429 in his three years in pinstripes. He made further stops in Oakland, Montreal, Baltimore, and Florida before retiring at the end of the 2001 season.
According to JAWS, Raines compares quite favorably to the average Hall of Fame left fielder, breezing past both career and peak benchmarks. Two years ago, the system had him ranked as the ninth-best left fielder of all time, behind Barry Bonds, Stan Musial, Rickey Henderson, Ted Williams, Pete Rose, Jim O’Rourke, Ed Delahanty, and Carl Yastrzemski—some pretty fair ballplayers. The revisions have bumped him all the way to fifth, albeit substantially behind Bonds, Musial, Williams, and Henderson:

Rank Player            Career   Peak   JAWS 

 1   Barry Bonds       186.2   83.1   134.7

 2   Stan Musial       137.0   70.2   103.6*

 3   Ted Williams      117.5   67.9    92.7*

 4   Rickey Henderson  119.4   57.8    88.6*

 5   Tim Raines         81.7   51.4    66.6

 6   Ed Delahanty       73.2   54.1    63.7**

 7   Manny Ramirez      73.1   40.1    56.6

 8   Carl Yastrzemski   68.8   41.8    55.3*

 9   Willie Stargell    66.0   42.6    54.3*

10   Fred Clarke        67.5   38.0    52.8**

• BBWAA-elected Hall of Famer
  • VC-elected Hall of Famer
    Raines outdoes eight BBWAA-elected left fielders, as well as all nine VC-elected left fielders. If the rankings sounds crazy, consider that the New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract ranked Raines eighth among left fielders back in 2001—he was that good. As for 2009 inductee Jim Rice, he ranks 49th among left fielders on the JAWS scale. Via the revised replacement level, Raines’ overall WARP score ranks 57th all-time among all players, and 38th among hitters. His peak score ranks 64th all-time, 45th among hitters, and his JAWS is 55th all-time, 37th among hitters.
    Raines is often slighted because he doesn’t measure up to Rickey Henderson, his direct contemporary and a 2009 Hall of Fame inductee. He doesn’t have 3,000 hits, and his 808 stolen bases rank “only” fifth all time, and while his 84.7 percent success rate is the best among thieves with more than 300 attempts (better even than Henderson’s 80.8 percent), that skill doesn’t really register in today’s power-saturated age, limiting the impression of his all-around ability. But Raines does measure up to another Hall of Fame contemporary, 2007 inductee Tony Gwynn. Their JAWS totals are very similar (78.5/48.4/63.5 for Gwynn, who has fallen behind after holding a 1.9-point edge last year), and Raines outdistances the left field benchmark by 12.9 JAWS points, while Gwynn rates just 2.3 JAWS points above the right field benchmark. Gwynn gets the glory because of his 3,141 hits, five 200-hit seasons, and eight batting titles. Raines won only one batting title, but while he never reached 200 hits due to his ability to generate so many walks, he compares very favorably to Gwynn in many key statistical categories
    

    
    
              AVG   OBP   SLG   ISO   EqA   HR   SB   TOB   TB    BG     R    RBI
    
    Gwynn    .338  .388  .459  .121  .307  135  319  3955  4259  5267  1383  1138
    
    Raines   .294  .385  .425  .131  .306  170  838  3977  3771  5805  1517   980
    
    

    
    By way of explanation, TOB is times on base (H + BB + HBP), BG is bases gained, the numerator of Tom Boswell’s briefly chic mid-‘80s Total Average stat (TB + BB + HBP + SB – CS), which is presented here to show that Raines’ edge on the basepaths made up for Gwynn’s ability to crank out the hits. The point is better served via the comprehensive EqA and WARP valuations, but it’s nonetheless a worthwhile comparison for those wishing to stick to traditional counting stats. The conclusion is the same: Gwynn and Raines were two fantastic ballplayers who had slightly different skills. One was disproportionately heralded in his time thanks to his extreme success by the traditional measures of batting average and hits, while the other was under-appreciated in a career that included a more concentrated early peak and a lot more ups and downs. The two were virtually equal in value on both career and peak levels, and there is absolutely no reason why one should be in the Hall of Fame on the first ballot while the other should have languished outside for more than five seconds, let alone two years. Raines’ vote totals to date have been a gross injustice, and while it’s possible the writers were dragging their heels to guarantee the superior Henderson be elected first, there’s no question his name belongs on those ballots as well.

Peter Gammons:

Beltre 1 yr. Deal for $9m with player option for $5m. Physical coming

Super Bowl V rematch!

When is the NFL going to give up the ghost on the roman numerals?

Super Bowl LXXXVIII is gonna be pretty awkward.

I’ll play along

Bengals over Jets
Patriots over Ravens

Eagles over Cowboys
Packers over Cardinals

Chargers over Patriots
Colts over Bengals

Packers over Saints
Vikings over Eagles

Colts over Chargers
Packers over Vikings (as Green Bay riots in celebration)

Colts over Packers.

I’m disappointed Houston didn’t squeeze in. I loved Houston getting hot and winning the AFC (they would have been a really tough matchup for warm city/dome teams like San Diego and Indy since Schaub would be flinging it all over the place.)

I guess that should be “… that spat on an umpire in on the first ballot.” No one saw a ballot spit on an ump.

But when McGwire could answer the bell, he had one of the biggest bats in the game. IIRC, Bill James has him third among 1B all time (maybe better to say “had” — this was in 2000, pre-Pujols). Not that Bill James is the only thing worth considering and each man has a right to his own opinion — I’m just saying.

For me, McGwire is an excellent candidate for the Hall. I believe that the only reason he is not in is the elephant in the room, and as that has been rehashed a thousand times over, I see no reason to get into it. I also don’t criticize anyone who feels that the elephant outweighs McGwire. I’m not so sure I’m right to ignore it.

That makes sense to me too. The mind of Tangotiger is an awesome thing. :)

Cromartie and Raines with a double that hit the brick lick astroturf that ruined his knees and skipped to the wall.

does not like 2nd baseman. Grich and Whitaker are two of the most deserving still not in. Not getting in is one thing not getting any support whatsoever is what was bizarre.

He’ll be missed by this Angel fan. Just another Halo victory will never be voiced again.

Man, that’s not that much older than I am.

deal but with an extra year. How strange these guys get these contracts. He doesn’t even have the health card he can play given how much time he’s missed over the last few years.

meant to vote for Raines his real number is 24 votes on 34 ballots and a 70.59%. So far we have elected Bert and Roberto with Tim and Larkin wondering why they are on the outside looking in.

Raines would need six straight more ballots with his name on it to make 75% without anyone else voting. Sorry Tim, if you can’t make it here you aren’t going to make it anywhere.

I’m curious – for those who did not put Raines on your ballot would you have voted for Tony Gwynn? They were essentially the same player, you can look at the table above to check out how similar they were other then how the went about getting on base. Raines had more power and was probably the the best baserunner in history. Gwynn had the lofty batting average and RBI and they played in the same era.

The school and the WAC made a lot of money. That is what it is all about.

Beltre PA

2009: 477
2008: 612
2007: 639

Beltre has topped 640 PA only three times — in 04, 05, and 06, his age 25, 26, and 27 seasons.

Tim Salmon is probably #1. Maybe Kirk Gibson

If ten years from now we will be having the same HOF argument about Bobby Abreu that we are currently having about Raines/Blyleven.

just give me the games, the hot stove and a comfy couch to watch from. I barely care who gets in the HOF or wins Cy Young etc…
vr, Xei

Mondesi, Sheffield, Green, Andre for most of that time.

all utility team. Smart to have backup for DeRosa/Sanchez but I’m puzzled that Uribe was unable to find a better gig.

That reminds me of one of my favorite Bob Gibson stories. In his final game, in 1975, he gave up a grand slam to Pete LaCock of the Cubs. LaCock ended up as the second to last batter Gibson ever faced, as Gibson retired, saying something like, “when you give up a grand slam to Pete LaCock, you know it’s time to go.”

I’ve heard Europane, just down Colorado and across Lake, has good egg salad.

Me, I go for the place across from Europane — Lovebirds. Great Thanksgiving sandwich.

you know about Mario’s has elevated your status in my eyes.

Buuuut, since we’re talking about food spots in Pasadena, may I suggest Lucky Boy. Great breakfast burrito, even though its like 4597349587 calories.

Randy Johnnson to retire. Conference call moved to tonight to avoid conflict with Hall of Fame announcement tomorrow. about 2 hours ago from web