Baseball HQ Top 15 Dodger Prospects
by Phil Gurnee on Jan 8, 2010 3:07 PM PST
in Prospects
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PrintOverall Grade - Hitting - C / Pitching - B+ / Overall B
1. Devaris Gordon - 9D
2. Aaron Miller - 9D
3. Ethan Martin - 9D
4. Chris Withrow - 9D
5. Scott Elbert - 9D
6. Josh Lindblom - 9D
7. Garrett Gould - 9E
8. Trayvon Robinson - 9E
9. Andrew Lambo - 8C
10. Ivan DeJesus - 8C
11. Jonathan Garcia - 9E
12. Pedro Baez - 8D
13. Kyle Russell - 8D
14. Cole Saint Claire - 8C
15. Allen Webster - 8C
Grading
PLAYER POTENTIAL RATING
Scale of (1-10) representing a player’s upside potential
10 – Hall of Fame-type player
9 – Elite player
8 – Solid regular
7 – Average regular
6 – Platoon player
5 – Major League reserve player
4 - Top minor league player
3 - Average minor league player
2 - Minor league reserve player
1 - Minor league roster filler
PROBABILITY RATING
Scale of (A-E) representing the player’s realistic chances of achieving their potential
A - 90% probability of reaching potential
B - 70% probability of reaching potential
C - 50% probability of reaching potential
D - 30% probability of reaching potential
E - 10% probability of reaching potential
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To say the least
I was very unimpressed with their rankings this year. The scout/analys who used to do the work for them is gone and have been replaced by writers just like myself. They are not scouts and they rarely see the players play. So I may not stop linking to them.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
They don't
but Deric McKamey who writes the Minor League Analyst used to write the updates for them but as he’s moved out on his own Rob and others have taken over the minor league task for HQ. It was Deric’s take that I liked to read.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
I asked him about the Eovaldi exlusion
and both of the analyst said they have seen Eovaldi pitch several times and are unimpressed with his stuff. Rob also like Baez for some reason and thinks Russell can make it. I gave them a hard time about Eovaldi but they didn’t budge.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
I can understand why
In part because those “ratings” seem impossible.
1. An Elite player is rare.
2. According to those ratings we have 6 players that have a 50% chance of becoming “Elite”
Some simple math means that we have only a 1.5% chance that all six players will become something other than Elite. It also means that there is a 65% chance that 3 or more of those players will become “Elite”. That is just outrageously optimistic. Something is either very wrong with their probability rating or very wrong with their definitions of talent level.
Editted percentages
misread “D”.
0 Elites – 11%
3 or more Elites – 25%
Still far to optimistic be be realistic.
They used to be very
judicious in handing out the 10 ranking. Only Justin Upton and Clayton Kershaw have ever gotten a 10, however they do hand out the 9A -9E like candy. Just the fact they have a relief pitcher like Claire who was A ball out of a big college program over Eovaldi left me cold.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
15+ at 50% to be abvove average MLB or better.
It is even more appalling when you just consider that entire list. The “worst” player on our top 15 has a 50% chance to be an above average player? They are just nuts. I expect the dodgers are not alone in this. You will have to tell me if I am wrong, and I am sure some farms will be better than others, but are the Dodgers just a huge outlier according to BBHQ? If every team has 15 players (or even 10) that project at as good or better than a 50% chance to be an above average player, that is just amazing.
It seems to me they are telling fans what they want to read, rather than trying to realistically assess the farm.
Angels
Have like nine 9 rated players and six 8 rated players.
by Chad Moriyama on Jan 9, 2010 11:32 AM PST up reply actions
It's fully possible
To have 15 players who project to be above average major leaguers. That wasn’t a problem to me. The problem was that they rated the Dodgers entire farm system just above average overall, which is contradictory to me. If you have 15 players, 5 of whom could be elite, and 15 solid players, that should be a great farm system even if everybody else is complete shit. Not a B.
Think that out more
30 teams, each with 15 players projected at 50% to be Above Average or better. That is 450 players in the minors right now that project at 50% or better to be Above Average.
Coming into the Majors by, say, 2013:
A NEAR CERTAINTY (99.96%) that AT LEAST 190 players will be Above Average from that crop.
There are currently 750 MLB players on the MLB active rosters. By definition, AN ABSOLUTE MAXIMUM of 374 of those players are “above average”. The reality is, of course, that MLB is about half replacement level players, a quarter average,
Using 1.5-2.5 WAR as average, and 3 WAR as above average, there were 75 Above Average (or better) players in 2009 and 112 Average players.
But BBHQ is suggesting that in say, about three years, 190+ Above Average players will be almost completely certain to come into MLB? Furthermore, that there is about a one-in-three chance that 230 such players will enter MLB. That is just impossible.
No
I’m saying it’s fully possible for one team to have 15 players that could project as above average regulars. Not that every team could have it.
by Chad Moriyama on Jan 9, 2010 7:53 PM PST up reply actions
ok, but
1. So far, the Angels and Dodgers both look that way, which are the only two reported so far
2. You said that 15 players rated at 50% Above Average OR BETTER is apparently an overall ranking of “B” – so some/several other teams might/could/should have even more (though presumably some teams might have less).
I am pretty sure, based on what little has been reported so far that their rankings+probabilities are nuts. But if you get me a list of total number rated at 8C or better, I’ll do the math for you. It’s a pay site, so to my knowledge I can’t just go look and get the data myself. If that is wrong, I’ll be glad to do it, just let me know.
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