FanPost

October 2nd, Diamondbacks vs Dodgers - Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Diamondbacks and the Dodgers using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis.  There are many references to Vegas win probabilities.  This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does.  This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games.  You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores.  This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last.  Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.  Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Saturday at 12:15 AM)

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob
 ARI LAN J.Saunders vs C.BIllingsley LAN 61.09% 70.61%

 

Notes:  Get your game score and over/under guesses in.  15 points on the line on the over/under question(s).  Only two more chances to catch Humma.

Over/Under Questions:

1. Total runs scored both teams: 6.5
2. C.Billingsley total strikeouts: 7.5
3. Dodgers runs scored minus Diamondbacks runs scored: 1.5
4. J.Saunders total batters faced: 26.5
5. Total HRs and errors both teams combined in game: 1.5

Sample Answer: UOOUU

 

Top 150 Most Likely Scores

1 LAN 2-1   51 LAN 9-0   101 LAN 13-1
2 LAN 3-2   52 ARI 6-1   102 LAN 9-7
3 LAN 1-0   53 LAN 7-5   103 LAN 13-2
4 LAN 4-3   54 LAN 9-2   104 ARI 10-3
5 LAN 3-1   55 ARI 5-0   105 ARI 9-6
6 LAN 2-0   56 LAN 9-3   106 ARI 10-1
7 LAN 3-0   57 ARI 7-2   107 LAN 13-0
8 LAN 4-2   58 ARI 7-3   108 ARI 9-7
9 LAN 4-1   59 LAN 8-5   109 LAN 10-6
10 ARI 2-1   60 LAN 10-1   110 ARI 10-2
11 ARI 3-2   61 ARI 7-4   111 ARI 10-4
12 LAN 4-0   62 LAN 10-0   112 LAN 12-4
13 LAN 5-4   63 LAN 8-4   113 ARI 9-0
14 LAN 5-1   64 ARI 7-5   114 ARI 10-0
15 LAN 5-2   65 LAN 10-2   115 ARI 9-8
16 LAN 5-0   66 ARI 7-1   116 ARI 10-5
17 ARI 1-0   67 ARI 7-6   117 LAN 11-5
18 LAN 5-3   68 LAN 9-4   118 LAN 12-5
19 ARI 4-3   69 LAN 8-7   119 LAN 10-7
20 ARI 3-1   70 ARI 6-0   120 LAN 13-3
21 LAN 6-1   71 LAN 11-1   121 ARI 10-6
22 LAN 6-0   72 LAN 11-0   122 LAN 14-0
23 ARI 4-2   73 ARI 8-2   123 ARI 11-3
24 ARI 2-0   74 ARI 8-3   124 LAN 14-3
25 LAN 6-2   75 ARI 8-4   125 ARI 10-7
26 LAN 6-3   76 LAN 10-3   126 LAN 13-4
27 LAN 6-5   77 LAN 8-6   127 ARI 11-4
28 LAN 7-1   78 ARI 8-1   128 LAN 11-6
29 LAN 7-0   79 ARI 8-5   129 ARI 10-8
30 ARI 5-4   80 LAN 11-2   130 ARI 11-1
31 ARI 5-3   81 LAN 10-4   131 ARI 11-2
32 ARI 4-1   82 ARI 7-0   132 LAN 14-2
33 LAN 6-4   83 LAN 11-3   133 ARI 11-5
34 LAN 7-2   84 LAN 9-5   134 LAN 14-1
35 ARI 5-2   85 LAN 12-1   135 LAN 10-9
36 ARI 3-0   86 ARI 9-2   136 LAN 15-2
37 LAN 8-1   87 ARI 9-3   137 LAN 13-5
38 LAN 7-3   88 ARI 8-6   138 LAN 12-6
39 ARI 6-3   89 ARI 8-0   139 LAN 15-1
40 ARI 5-1   90 LAN 12-0   140 LAN 11-7
41 LAN 8-2   91 ARI 9-1   141 LAN 14-4
42 LAN 8-0   92 ARI 9-4   142 LAN 15-0
43 LAN 7-4   93 LAN 9-6   143 LAN 10-8
44 ARI 6-5   94 LAN 12-2   144 ARI 11-0
45 ARI 6-4   95 ARI 8-7   145 ARI 11-6
46 ARI 4-0   96 LAN 10-5   146 LAN 13-6
47 LAN 7-6   97 LAN 11-4   147 LAN 16-2
48 ARI 6-2   98 LAN 12-3   148 ARI 12-1
49 LAN 9-1   99 ARI 9-5   149 LAN 14-5
50 LAN 8-3   100 LAN 9-8   150 ARI 12-2
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