Ted Lilly, Future Dodger Home Run Champion?


Might as well get a poll up about your thoughts on Ted Lilly. Eric likes the deal, at first I was against it. However since 1970 history shows that soft-tossing lefthanders with impeccable control can have success during their mid to late 30's. In fact the list is so large that I won't post it here; you will have to follow this link.  Over 65 left-handed pitchers have had successful seasons from age 35 on. Of course betting on Lilly to have three of those seasons while paying him a premium price is the problem. At that price he needs to be good every year, not just one or two. While I'm sure most of you are happy that we now have three legitimate starting pitchers, I'm just not sold that the best way to accomplish this was to throw this kind of money at Ted Lilly.

I can't help but feel that the Ted Lilly we saw in Aug/Sept will be the best we will ever see, and that in three years this will be another deal about which someone will say "other then a few bad signings here and there, Ned has done a bang up job".  Then again the NL seems to suit Ted Lilly just fine. He has been as solid as they come since he left Toronto and learned how to control the strike zone.

Do I sound like I'm torn on this deal? It should because I am. I really like Ted Lilly and have wanted him to be a Dodger for years. I wanted him this summer. I'm just not sure I want him for the next three years.

The record for home runs allowed is 38 by a Los Angeles Dodger. Lilly gave up 13 in 12 starts, and that was at his best. If he gets 32 starts, you can expect between 30 - 35 bombs. Since he has only pitched over 200 innings twice in his career he'd have to really have major gopheritis to come close to Don Sutton's mark. Hopefully with his control those will be solo shots and no big deal. Hopefully.

                                       
Player            HR Year Age  ERA ERA+
Don Sutton        38 1970  25 4.08   94
Jeff Weaver       35 2005  28 4.22   97
Jose Lima         33 2004  31 4.07  101
Ismael Valdez     32 1999  25 3.98  108
Darren Dreifort   31 2000  28 4.16  105
Chan Ho Park      31 1999  26 5.23   82
Don Drysdale      30 1965  28 2.77  118

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 10/20/2010.

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