Kyle Russell is on the cusp of greatness
by Phil Gurnee on Nov 10, 2010 9:19 AM PST
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Printwith only one thing holding him back, but that anchor is so very heavy he has little margin for error if he expects to extract a major league career with such a weight dragging him down. We all know that anchor is his K rate which has been a problem no matter what level of baseball he is playing.
For years Dodger fans have complained about the Dodgers not drafting for power. Kyle Russell was the answer to their complaints, now they just have to hope he can make contact just enough to have an impact. I'm big on using historical comps for players, but for Russell to succeed he is going to have be unique. No one with his K rates in the minors at his age has had a career of note. So normally I'd pass on Kyle. But at this point we are talking upside, and when you get to the 13th prospect vote, you might as well gamble on the one player in the system who might break the bank.
Player System Age PA K's K% OPS Ryan Howard AA 24 433 129 29.792% 1.033 Ryan Howard AAA 24 127 37 29.134% 0.966 Kyle Russell A 24 239 64 26.778% 1.141 Kyle Russell AA 24 308 113 36.688% 0.781 Kyle Russell 2nd Half 24 197 69 35.025% 0.917 Kyle Russell Aug AA 24 118 39 33.051% 1.018
Kyle Russell is not Ryan Howard, but Kyle Russell did adapt to the tough AA offensive environment and was the best hitter in the league for the month of August. I'll always take what a prospect is doing at the end of the season over what he started doing. Coming into 2010 we knew Kyle had to perform and he did what he could. He destroyed the California League and was promoted to AA where he certainly struggled in his first 100 at bats. With each game he got better and better which is what I call progress.
Kyle can play a solid right field, is one of the best baserunners in the system, has a good arm, has plate discipline. The odds are high against Russell having a major league career but I think his upside is enough that he is not someone we should be discounting out of hand. He did what we asked him to do. He adjusted, he slammed AA pitching in August, he had a plus .900 OPS for almost 200 plate appearances.
You can vote for the guy who quit on his team, you can vote for the guy who throws 95 gas but can't strike out anyone, you can vote for some men beating up on rookie league pitchers, you can vote for a guy on the Loons who might have been the best pitcher on the team but the scouts don't think he can succeed beyond that, you can vote for a plethora of relief pitchers who upside are setup men, or you can vote for the dream of watching your own Mark Reynolds playing RF.
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Ryan Howard did not make it until he was 25
just looking for a glimmer here, we are talking the 14th prospect vote not one of the top five. If anyone thought he had a reasonable chance for Ryan Howard or Mark Reynolds he’d be our top prospect would he not?
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
That’s because Howard was blocked by the massive contract Jim Thome signed with the Phillies. What’s blocking Russell is his own inability to thrive in the minors.
You can say he smashed in AA for a month, and it is true, but he’s also the same guy who couldn’t hit AA pitching the first month.
When does he reach the majors, if he ever does, when he’s 26 or 27? Are you really betting that at 27, he can be good enough to hit ML pitching?
Dude
we are talking #14 prospect level voting here. They are all longshots by definition. You are betting little and hoping to hit big.
What is your point in the 2nd paragraph? You are the same guy you were last year, but you improved yourself and are now qualified to seek teaching jobs, right? Improvement is improvement. Hopefully in Russell’s case it is not a flash in the pan.
@davidyoungtbla - The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
by David Young on Nov 10, 2010 10:01 AM PST up reply actions
Except the difference is that Russell still hasn’t improved himself in the one area you can say, “Yeah, ML player right there.”
For every Ryan Howard and Mark Reynolds, there’s a guy like Chris Davis and his 34.5% K rate. Russell acting like Davis is much more likely to happen.
I've always rooted for him since they drafted him
having seen him a couple of times in college (on TV) and remembering his light tower power. The K’s were and continue to be a concern. But I’m rooting for him to cut that down a bit and then… who knows!
There's no need to fear, Underdog is here! / Broncos/Dodgers/Lakers fan in Niners/Raiders/Giants/Warriors country, and damned proud of it.
Kyle Russell was supposed to deliver Phil’s meds today, but he didn’t follow through.
by Eric Stephen on Nov 10, 2010 9:46 AM PST reply actions 1 recs
Kyle Russell tried the playground equipment but smashed into the ground because his swing is too long.
@davidyoungtbla - The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
by David Young on Nov 10, 2010 9:57 AM PST reply actions 1 recs
Damn, those are both much better than mine.
by regfairfield on Nov 10, 2010 10:08 AM PST up reply actions
I want to believe
but his hot August was fueled by a .458 BABIP and even then he was still putting up an unacceptable 32.2 K%.
Also, since you emphasis how a player finishes the year, it’s worth mentioning that he ended the year in a slump with a 48.1 K% in 27 PA in Sept.
How about Kyle Russell somehow managed to strike out 113 times in 76 games.
by regfairfield on Nov 10, 2010 10:06 AM PST up reply actions
A different kind of windmill than Rich Donnelly.
@davidyoungtbla - The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
by David Young on Nov 10, 2010 10:24 AM PST up reply actions
As much as I recognize that a middle reliever isn’t worth much, even in the limited time Travis Schlichting, for example, spent in the majors in 2010, he put up a 0.3 WAR. So I think it is arguable at least whether a prospect who projects to middle relief and is fairly likely to see time there should be higher ranked than a prospect whose odds are even longer than his swing because of the one huge hole in his game.
@davidyoungtbla - The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
Padres GM Hoyer said he tried to keep top exec Paul DePodesta but knew from the start DePodesta couldn’t refuse the Mets new GM, the legendary Sandy Alderson, a longtime friend. DePodesta, the Mets’ new VP of Player Development and Scouting, reached an agreement to remain living in San Diego and is thought to be receiving a salary of close to $1 million a year from the Mets
Read more: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/jon_heyman/11/10/cliff-lee-free-agents/1.html#ixzz14uGIsdcE
i dont like to vote for relievers
i think Kyle russell will have a great year next year in AA if he starts there, I didnt vote for him this time because i want to give BCG a chance but if he doesnt get voted in this time then i will proceed on to my next choice which is K. Russell.
Thinkblue522 in MLBTradeRumors.com
by Chuy Gutierrez on Nov 10, 2010 10:55 AM PST reply actions
For the record
I’m not sold on Russell. Even in his improvement month, he struck out one-third of the time in AA ball at age 24. That’s still a huge hole in his game that drives his probability of making it to the majors at all very, very small, let alone come close to his ceiling.
@davidyoungtbla - The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
I love this fanpost :)
Kyle Russell has definitely become my favorite Dodger prospect, and I am hoping for big, big things from him and Sands in 2011.
"If we hit that bull's eye, the rest of the dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate"
Nice Job
I would like Russell to cut down on that swing or choke up on bat after 2 strikes to reduce Ks and not take away power. The few times i saw him he has not done that yet. We all know he has to get to less than 25% krate to think about MLb ..vs being a AAAA player..Hopefully in 2011 he can break 25% krate barrier..
Russell has 2 more yr in minors i think so time for him to slightly adjust swing.
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