It's Time For Dodgers To Lock Up Clayton Kershaw
by Eric Stephen on Dec 12, 2010 7:14 PM PST
in Dodgers History & Records
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For the most part, the heavy lifting of the Dodgers offseason has already been completed. The starting rotation and almost all of the bullpen is set, and really the only thing missing is a left fielder, or some sort of reasonable facsimile of a left fielder. That leaves plenty of time for Ned Colletti to concentrate on what should be a top priority this winter: to sign Clayton Kershaw to a long-term contract.
Kershaw is, by most accounts, the face of the Dodger franchise. He sits atop the starting rotation and will only be 23 years of age in 2011. He has just over two years of service time, meaning he still has one more year until he starts making the relative big bucks. Kershaw likes being here; how else can you explain making his recent nuptials a Dodger-themed wedding? Perhaps now that Clayton has settled down in real life, perhaps he would also like to setup roots in his career as well.
Luckily, there are a few comparable pitchers who have signed long-term deals in the last few years.
Jon Lester
| Pitcher | Age | Svc Time | Year(s) | Starts | IP | W-L | HR/9 | BB/9 | K/9 | WHIP | ERA | ERA+ | WAR |
| Lester |
25 | 2 yrs, 75 days | 2006-08 | 59 | 354.0 | 27-8 | 0.8 | 3.6 | 6.6 | 1.393 | 3.81 | 123 | 6.9 |
| Kershaw |
23 | 2 yrs, 105 days | 2008-10 | 83 | 483.0 | 26-23 | 0.6 | 4.2 | 9.3 | 1.267 | 3.17 | 125 | 10.4 |
Lester signed a five-year, $30 million contract with the Red Sox in spring training 2009, with the following payout schedule:
- 3rd Year (2009): $1 million
- 1st Arbitration Year (2010): $3.75 million
- 2nd Arbitration Year (2011): $5.75 million
- 3rd Arbitration Year (2012): $7.625 million
- 1st Free Agency Year (2013): $11.625 million
- 2nd Free Agency Year (2014): $13 million option ($250,000 buyout)
| Pitcher | Age | Svc Time | Year(s) | Starts |
IP | W-L | HR/9 | BB/9 | K/9 | WHIP | ERA | ERA+ | WAR |
| Gallardo |
24 | 2 yrs, 108 days |
2007-09 | 51 | 320.0 | 22-17 | 0.9 | 3.9 | 9.1 | 1.294 | 3.57 | 119 | 5.6 |
| Kershaw |
23 | 2 yrs, 105 days | 2008-10 | 83 | 483.0 | 26-23 | 0.6 | 4.2 | 9.3 | 1.267 | 3.17 | 125 | 10.4 |
Gallardo signed a five-year, $30.1 million contract with Milwaukee last April, with the following payout schedule:
- $1.25 million signing bonus
- 3rd Year (2010): $500,000
- 1st Arbitration Year (2011): $3.25 million
- 2nd Arbitration Year (2012): $5.5 million
- 3rd Arbitration Year (2013): $7.75 million
- 1st Free Agency Year (2014): $11.25 million
- 2nd Free Agency Year (2015): $13 million option ($600,000 buyout)
Ricky Romero
| Pitcher | Age | Svc Time | Year(s) | Starts |
IP | W-L | HR/9 | BB/9 | K/9 | WHIP | ERA | ERA+ | WAR |
| Romero |
26 | 2 years | 2009-10 | 61 | 388.0 | 27-18 | 0.8 | 3.7 | 7.3 | 1.397 | 3.99 | 107 | 6.8 |
| Kershaw |
23 | 2 yrs, 105 days | 2008-10 | 83 | 483.0 | 26-23 | 0.6 | 4.2 | 9.3 | 1.267 | 3.17 | 125 | 10.4 |
Romero signed a five-year, $30.1 million contract with Toronto last August, technically before he had two years of service time, with the following payout schedule:
- $1.25 million signing bonus
- 3rd Year (2011): $750,000
- 1st Arbitration Year (2012): $5 million
- 2nd Arbitration Year (2013): $7.5 million
- 3rd Arbitration Year (2014): $7.5 million
- 1st Free Agency Year (2015): $7.5 million
- 2nd Free Agency Year (2016): $13.1 million option ($600,000 buyout)
Keep in mind that the ages listed are for the first year of each contract. It sounds like five-years, $30 million is the go-to contract for pitchers with two years of service time. However, Kershaw compares favorably to all three, and should be in line for even more money. If we want to stretch the comps a bit, we can compare Kershaw to the big boys.
Both Felix Hernandez ($78 million) and Justin Verlander ($80 million) signed five-year deals after their fourth season, which is two years ahead of where Kershaw is at now. Here is what they earned and will earn during the same five years as these other contracts (one year of team control, three arbitration years, and one year of free agency):
- Verlander: $44.9 million (includes signing bonus)
- Hernandez: $42.84 million (includes signing bonus)
The bulk of these deals were signed after two more years than Kershaw has pitched, so don't expect his contract, if signed now, to be that high. Perhaps a five-year deal at somewhere in between $30 and $43 million seems reasonable. That brings us to one more comparable pitcher.
For Cole Hamels, the world was his oyster after 2008. He was the homegrown ace of a World Series winner, coming off a wonderful postseason run, during which he gave up seven runs in five starts, winning four games. His service time (two years, 143 days) meant he was a Super Two, giving him a fourth year of arbitration eligibility. That alone makes Hamels a tough comparison, just by being, let's say a half service class ahead of Kerhsaw. However, if we stretch a little bit and apply Hamels' three-year, $20.5 million contract (the first three of his four arbitration years) to Kershaw's three arbitration years, that might bring us to a reasonable deal for our ace.
Here is my proposed five-year contract extension for Kershaw this winter:
- $1 million signing bonus
- 3rd Year (2011): $500,000
- 1st Arbitration Year (2012): $4.35 million
- 2nd Arbitration Year (2013): $6.65 million
- 3rd Arbitration Year (2014): $9.5 million
- 1st Free Agency Year (2015): $12.5 million
- 2nd Free Agency Year (2016): $16 million option ($1.5 million buyout)
Total: Five years, $36 million
That deal potentially buys out two years of free agency, and still allows Kershaw to be a free agent heading into his age 29 season at the latest. Make it happen, Ned.
Many thanks to the always wonderful Cot's Baseball Contracts, Baseball-Reference, and FanGraphs.
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Forever and ever, amen.
There's no need to fear, Underdog is here! / Broncos/Dodgers/Lakers fan in Niners/Raiders/Giants/Warriors country, and damned proud of it.
Agreed
This is my only Christmas wish. I have never been so excited to go and see a pitcher pitch.
by robotmadeofnails on Dec 12, 2010 8:18 PM PST up reply actions
im starving
but im reheating some homemade bolognese and have some homemade cinnamon rolls to eat afterwards.
and made a pumpkin pie for my wifes bday tomorrow. and will prolly be making some cookies or pumpkin bread soon too.
this is why i am fat.
I usually buy my bologna from the deli, rather than the classic Oscar May…oh, never mind.
by Eric Stephen on Dec 12, 2010 7:24 PM PST up reply actions
do it
do it twelve times
DO EEEEEEEEETTTTTTTTTTTT!!!!!!!!!!!
"Heroes get remembered, but Legends never die."
by Tommy Blackjack on Dec 12, 2010 7:25 PM PST reply actions
Don't think its going to happen.
Ned tends to react to situations developing instead of being proactive.
Yeah, I don’t think there is much of a sense of urgency from the team. But, Kershaw is sort of a unique case. The last young guy who was the star of the team was Martin, and they did try to go long-term with him. Of course, Martin was resistant to those overtures, and the two sides couldn’t come to a deal. Perhaps Kershaw is more willing to engage, if in fact the opportunity is there.
by Eric Stephen on Dec 12, 2010 7:30 PM PST up reply actions
As I recall
Ned said back in 2009, he would be interested in a deal that bought out some FA years. Frankly I can’t think of one player on the current team outside of Kershaw, he should have made this type of deal yet.
I should state
he said in a private conversation, I don’t know if he ever made that type statement on the record.
I would have done it with Kemp, Billingsley, Ethier, and Kershaw.
Hindsight being 20/20. It looks like Ethier is going to get at least 6 years from somebody, and Kemp still has some value.
I still don't know if
it is the best thing to do with every young player. I think it takes a certain player and makeup to play well under a long term deal.
The opposite of that is that you’re paying full market prices for players which, in some cases you probably cannot match.
Yes, there is risk of signing a young player to a long term deal, but that sort of risk exists with any signing. Juan Uribe signing for instance, is risky in the sense that few people know what his level of production will be for the Dodgers.
Randomness happens, variation happens, any deal or any trade you make will have some failures, but it shouldn’t preclude to making a deal. If signing all four players to long term deals and only two of them ‘work out’, then that is how it works out. But I don’t really see how that sort of risk is different from signing somebody on the FA market.
The difference is that unless you buy out FA
years, you have them under your control and you probably don’t pay them much more if you go to arbitration each year.
A FA has an established level of performance, plus you usually a fulfilling an existing need.
That’s not really true though. Veterans are no more consistent or have an established level of performance other a player who has only a couple of years under his belt.
For every Carl Crawford who seems to do everything above average, there are players like A.J. Burnett who you signed at market rate and seem confounded at what he produces from year to year.
Free Agency does not guarantee an established produce.
A look back 40 years ago...
Jon Weisman reminisces about Wes Parker’s 1970 season over on Dodger Thoughts.
It all starts with Blake DeWitt.
If Blake DeWitt was able to stick with the Dodgers at 2nd base. The Dodgers don’t tread for Ryan Theriot and keep Blake DeWitt. Ryan Theriot doesn’t keep on playing sub-replacement level with the Dodgers, and eventually traded to the Cardinals. The Dodgers don’t sign Juan Uribe to 3 years/21 million. The Cardinals do not trade for Ryan Theriot for Hanksworth and create their own shortstop surplus, the Cardinals also do not trade Brenden Ryan to the Mariners for an minor league Outfielder.
The truth is out there.
I see that as less DeWitt’s ability to stick and more wanting Lilly and not wanting to give up Loney.
Winter is coming.
if Loney has a typical Loney year in '11
he’s gone, one way or another.
Overqualified in an underqualified world since 2008.
Why
would he be gone now, they still have lots of money tied up in deferred money, unless Jerry Sands has big time year and even then they would probably use him in LF rather than 1B.
James Loney is going to play most games at 1B since Eric Karros and have folks wanting him to go since sometime in 2009.
Because at that point you’ve only got one more year of control and could probably sign Adam LaRoche or something for less money.
@andrewngrant
by regfairfield on Dec 12, 2010 8:06 PM PST up reply actions
Right
Loney at ~$4.5 million is harder to replace than Loney at ~$7 million or so.
by Eric Stephen on Dec 12, 2010 8:07 PM PST up reply actions
The only reason Martin is gone is his hip injury IMO.
by Eric Stephen on Dec 12, 2010 8:16 PM PST up reply actions
We went through this before
The Dodgers would have had to guaranteed him his same salary for someone coming off an injury. As I pointed out the other day no player in 2009 who had a contract tendered had his salary go down. You could say the Dodgers could argue a reduction, history tells us, they lose that argument
If Loney puts up similar career numbers and stays healthy, I think he will be back in 2012
Loyalty is nice
and Loney is a likable player, but he is an offensive void at a position where most teams get big power numbers. This has all been said before…he’s getting too expensive to suck! They were kicking the tires on Fielder for a reason.
Besides, if the Dodgers have another mediocre year, Ned might not be in LA to demonstrate that loyalty.
Overqualified in an underqualified world since 2008.
There are no guarantees
GMs under contract get fired
Overqualified in an underqualified world since 2008.
As I Expect Both...
Sands and Trayvon Robinson to be ready to start in the majors in 2012 (barring unexpected setbacks), only one of them is going to be able to join an outfield that will have Kemp and Ethier in 2012, so that leaves 1B for Sands. The only thing that will change that — outside of the setbacks already mentioned — is Loney having a REALLY good year.
by CanuckDodger on Dec 12, 2010 8:10 PM PST up reply actions
Unless they (Sands and or Robinson) get some time in LA
in 2011, I can’t see any Ned Colletti club voluntarily playing a rookie in the starting lineup in March/April 2012. Blake Dewitt did it because the two players ahead of him got hurt.
If they don’t sign a LF this off season, I can’t see Colletti denying Sands or Robinson a shot. They’re either getting a shot or are traded for somebody.
And Nobody...
…seems to want to consider that the reason the Dodgers are so blase about filling the LF position while everybody in LA is pulling their hair out over it is because they just want a place-holder for now.
by CanuckDodger on Dec 12, 2010 8:23 PM PST up reply actions
I've considered that
I really hope they’re worth waiting for too.
Overqualified in an underqualified world since 2008.
Why
Sands doesn’t even have to put on the 40-man roster until next year. Robinson will have another option.
They'll Get Some Time, Even If It Is In September
Martin, Loney, Kemp, Ethier, DeWitt. Dodger position prospects DO get jobs as starters on this team.
by CanuckDodger on Dec 12, 2010 8:21 PM PST up reply actions
They did
but not as rookies starting out the season. All of them replaced someone who was hurt when they came up.
I am not sure why I have to repeat this.
You Are Having To Repeat It Because
it is far from proven that there is some sort of rule, like you think. Circumstances in the past have dictated much of what has happened. It doesn’t mean that that is prologue for the future.
by CanuckDodger on Dec 12, 2010 8:26 PM PST up reply actions
So the Cardinals fans have two reasons to hate Blake DeWitt:
1) He’s a Cub
2) Because of him (indirectly, of course), Theriot is a Cardinal.
by Eric Stephen on Dec 12, 2010 7:51 PM PST up reply actions
I still think the Dodgers
would have considered getting Uribe unless became a much better player than he turned out to be.
Ryan Theriot becoming a Cardinal was as inevitable as Jeff Francouer being a Royal. Might as well get it over with.
@andrewngrant
by regfairfield on Dec 12, 2010 8:02 PM PST up reply actions
we all need to tell Ned this
honestly, if you go to spring training, it’s fairly easy to see Ned and have a conversation with him (and during the season at Dodger Stadium). You think if enough people tell him, he’d start to think it would be a good idea?
someone forward this article
to all of the reporters covering the dodgers too.
Eric's deal sounds reasonable
but Kershaw would probably have to drop some dollars on the back end to make it happen.
I love this Kershaw
extension plan. Do it. Do it now.
This article should have at least 10-15 rec's right now
I agree 1 trillion percent.
"If we hit that bull's eye, the rest of the dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate"
I have mentioned this before.
But the La Habra Teacher’s union are still on strike.
And I didn’t apply to sub scam for them.
http://www.ocregister.com/news/teachers-279951-district-strike.html
Go for it
You will
Be Banned
That’s your CTA talkin’ there Jack
by 68elcamino427 on Dec 12, 2010 8:38 PM PST up reply actions
Riiiiiight
Jerry Brown is the person who gave the OK for Public Employee Unions in California, among other things …
Also, nice to hear that everyone who will be submitting interviews for teaching positions not today or tomorrow, but 20 years from today will be very happy?
by 68elcamino427 on Dec 12, 2010 9:26 PM PST up reply actions
I should have clarified that the CTA as today is not going to exist. There will be an organization called the CTA, but it will be nowhere near as powerful. There won’t be as stringent protections to protect veterans, and tenure will likely be modified.
And if you have read some of the stuff Jerry Brown has promised to do, you could do the math and see where he will make cuts. This man is by and large a fiscal conservative as there is one in California. His plan is basically to give the voters the choice of either higher tax cuts or cuts on spending and services, and it will likely be lower services. I hope I’m wrong, but this isn’t going to be the job where you can retire with 90% of your salary anymore, or have the $80,000 annual salary.
Right, because as we all know...
teachers are the most overpaid of all professions, with almost no responsibility (aside from educating future adults, which parents don’t seem to want to do anymore).
I would sign Kershaw to a 6 year 42 million extension. I don’t think we will sign any free agents for LF longer than 1 year because I think that Robinson will be ready in 2012. When do you think that guys like Sands,Robinson,DeJesus, and Gordon will be ready to contribute? 2012?
Me too
unless my team gets pummeled! The Bears might as well have been making snow angels out there.
Overqualified in an underqualified world since 2008.
I can imagine
I mentioned that game to my brother once when he was driving, I thought he was gonna crash the car…..
"Heroes get remembered, but Legends never die."
by Tommy Blackjack on Dec 13, 2010 8:08 AM PST up reply actions
Blake Griffin is a freak. Those two dunks against the Knicks were two of the best in game dunks I’ve ever seen.
by dodgers4life on Dec 12, 2010 8:32 PM PST up reply actions
From the "LA Examiner"
(one of those Examiner online newspapers, that come up on Google News, which are scarcely better than Bleacher Report… But I just thought this was funny)
The Dodgers, in desperate need to upgrade an offense that averaged a little over four runs per game, spent the off-season singing players who for the most part were unwanted by other teams.
That’s their problem, not enough sopranos and tenors!
There's no need to fear, Underdog is here! / Broncos/Dodgers/Lakers fan in Niners/Raiders/Giants/Warriors country, and damned proud of it.
I agree about Examiner, although Christopher Jackson does a pretty good job on the ABQ site giving Isotopes news. I wonder how much my opinion of Jackson is influenced by the relative scarcity of news on the ’Topes.
by Eric Stephen on Dec 12, 2010 9:04 PM PST up reply actions
Yah true, he's very useful
That already puts it ahead of every Bleacher Reporter ;-)
There's no need to fear, Underdog is here! / Broncos/Dodgers/Lakers fan in Niners/Raiders/Giants/Warriors country, and damned proud of it.
I'm trying to think
Is Raul Mondesi the last guy from whom the Dodgers bought out any free agent years? Off the top of my head, he might be.
Yeah I guess that’s right, since they signed him to that extension right away. Good catch.
Izturis had an option for one free agent year, but he was traded.
Odalis’ contract I guess is the last one to buy out FA years.
by Eric Stephen on Dec 12, 2010 9:11 PM PST up reply actions
Odalis’ contract was signed as a free agent, so he’s out. Green it is!
by Eric Stephen on Dec 12, 2010 9:14 PM PST up reply actions
I agree that 5/36 sounds like a hell of a steal. I would do that in a minute. Which makes me wonder if Kershaw would do it. On the one hand, that’s a lot of money to turn down when — I’m not gonna say it, just saying, he’s a pitcher and shit happens. On the other hand… I gotta believe that Kershaw could take his chances this year… and a huge season would not surprise me… and then he is looking at a much, much bigger payday. It’s very tough.
Out of curiosity — put yourself in the wayback machine and tell me what kind of deal you would have given Martin after the 2007 season. (Obviously, no such deal was available — just wondering what your best offer would have been.) Would that have paid off, or would you have overpaid for a whole lot of 5-3 batted balls?
Now with 33% more Kavula
If I were advising Kershaw, yes, I would advise him to take that deal.
I would use a gun if I had to.
Now with 33% more Kavula
by Humma Kavula on Dec 12, 2010 9:44 PM PST up reply actions
I believe it would set a record for most guaranteed money given to a pitcher with under three years of service time.
by Eric Stephen on Dec 12, 2010 9:48 PM PST up reply actions
But that’s only because Lincecum signed the deal he did, right? Part of this is that that guy only signed a two-year deal.
I’ll cop to thinking about Lincecum when I think about Kershaw. Is that so wrong?
Now with 33% more Kavula
by Humma Kavula on Dec 12, 2010 9:51 PM PST up reply actions
For sure
Lincecum, like Hamels, has the added benefit of being a Super Two. And with those two early CYA, I still can’t believe he didn’t use the negotiating hammer that he had last winter.
In reality, Timmy stands alone in terms of pitchers with < 3 years of service time.
by Eric Stephen on Dec 12, 2010 9:54 PM PST up reply actions
I don’t mean to suggest that Lincecum is a comp for Kershaw — I mean, in my dreams he is, but I doubt an arbitrator would see it that way.
What I mean to suggest is that a contract can be a record-breaker and still end up being massively underpriced if things go a player’s way. More realistically and specifically, if I’m Kershaw and I’m offered 5/36 this winter, I have to at least think about what might be on the table if I am top-five CYA in 2011, which is not out of the question.
Maybe a record-breaker is quite enough, given the possibility of TJ surgery or worse. Just saying: if I’m Kershaw, the fact that I’m really awesome and still getting better is crossing my mind.
Now with 33% more Kavula
by Humma Kavula on Dec 12, 2010 9:59 PM PST up reply actions
I agree with all of those points. I was more responding to your question; yeah, Lincecum would have the record if he chose to sign for longer than his two years.
by Eric Stephen on Dec 12, 2010 10:01 PM PST up reply actions
I'll
add this, Kershaw had a better start to his career (really if you look at where Kershaw is, only Lincecum and Hamels are in the same picture, first 3 years, 80+ starts, 120 or better ERA+)
But King Felix has had some phenomenal years since then plus he was a year younger than Kershaw when he started.
by bhsportsguy on Dec 12, 2010 10:20 PM PST up reply actions
Russell Martin wanted to go year-to-year
in the 07-08 offseason, after Ryan Howard made $10,000,000 in arbitration, though apparently Colletti was willing to go long-term, and Martin still felt that way in mid-July of 2008, changing his tune during January 2009, hoping that he would get to go long-term then, after settling into his new powerless self in the 2nd half of 2008.
by StolenMonkey86 on Dec 12, 2010 10:01 PM PST up reply actions 4 recs
Excellent
I’m recommending this, because you did the work to find those links. Well done.
by Eric Stephen on Dec 12, 2010 10:02 PM PST up reply actions
I found this interesting
one of the commenters said this:
With respect to the prospects Ned was man crushing all over Clayton Kershaw. Best pitcher in the organization. Unbelievable stuff and hopes to fast track him. But a pitcher like that has been so dominate he has never really been challenged to this point in his career. He hasn’t had to adjust to the game. So Ned will be looking to see how he responds this year in AA and AAA. James McDonald is a great prospect with a bright future. Not as electric an arm as Kershaw but will be an important contributor. Greg Miller, lots of talent but has gotten off track. Can’t remember if it was McDonald or Meloan but one of them was exhausted by end of last year. Had pitched 145 innings in minors (more than ever before) so they took it very slow when they brought him in. Another pitcher he spoke highly of was Ramon Trasco (at least that’s what I think his name was. I had never heard of him before.)
weird how things change huh?
Winter is coming.
by Canuck
I don’t have a problem with Mauer being called the best catcher in the game and Martin being called second best, but it’s not like Martin doesn’t have a few things going for him over Mauer. More power, more speed, and he has proven to be much more durable.
Winter is coming.
By Eric
I think Mauer’s better, but I think you could make a legitimate argument for Martin based on his durability, superior defense, and better speed and power. Mauer’s no slouch behind the plate; he can throw, but he’s nowhere near as mobile as Martin in blocking pitches and fielding squibbers.
If you were picking one of them and they told you this guy HAS to be your catcher for the next ten years, any sane person would pick Martin due to Mauer’s injury problems and the concerns about whether he will have to move to another position.
Winter is coming.
If we could rec comments on DT I would have rec'd this
77. Steve
Yay, Kershaw! Yay, Morris! Yay, Hochevar has to play for Kansas City!
by StolenMonkey86 on Dec 12, 2010 10:32 PM PST up reply actions
…although that excerpt was from Enders.
by Eric Stephen on Dec 12, 2010 10:29 PM PST up reply actions
I really like reading this because now it’s easy to say “oh, he was great when he started, but then the second half of 2008 happened.” instead, I get to see just how crazy you guys were over him…his slump must have been so disappointing for you!
Winter is coming.
Here's a NedChat from Jan 2008
Colletti: We don’t think it’s out of the question to have 100-plus stolen bases out of Furcal, Pierre and Martin. We don’t think it’s unreasonable to expect 20-plus home runs from Jones, Jeff Kent, James Loney, Martin and perhaps Kemp/Andre Ethier. We think the combination of speed and power are somewhat rare in the National League. Many times, a team has power without speed or speed without power, but to have three players that are capable of stealing 20-plus bases and two capable of stealing 40-50 bases, coupled with the power maturation of our young players, is pretty intriguing.
From Dodgers.com
by StolenMonkey86 on Dec 12, 2010 10:44 PM PST up reply actions
since they were originally the 3rd and 4th outfielders, when we were hoping for an outfield of Ethier Jones Kemp. Then Andruw Jones became the second coming of Terry Forster (see first minute).
by StolenMonkey86 on Dec 12, 2010 10:50 PM PST up reply actions
…with legit injury concerns.
by Eric Stephen on Dec 12, 2010 10:41 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
Yeah, but on a team that gave him off days and DH’ed him.
Even with the injury concerns, Mauer body of work after the 2007 still blew Martin out of the water.
Oh, I thought you were talking about at the time, when there was an actual reasonable debate.
by Eric Stephen on Dec 12, 2010 10:51 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
I’m just going to agree to disagree here. I wasn’t part of that discussion, and this conversation is going nowhere.
All that reminiscing
and you forgot that you can be sarcastic here.
And say fuck.
by StolenMonkey86 on Dec 12, 2010 11:01 PM PST up reply actions
Coincidentally
Tulowitzki signed his first long-term extension the day of that DT post. 6 years, $31m
http://dodgerthoughts.baseballtoaster.com/archives/899092.html#91
by Eric Stephen on Dec 12, 2010 10:27 PM PST up reply actions
Also this: Canuck, as always, has forgotten more about Jerry Sands and Travon Robinson than I’ll ever know about all the minor league players who will ever exist combined…
…but to me, the idea of those two guys both starting on the 2012 Dodgers seems like a best case scenario. Count two more things that have to go right in a season in which we are already counting a whole lot of things that have to go right.
Now with 33% more Kavula
That’s not what I meant. I meant that — knowing nothing about anything — it seems to me that Sands and Robinson both being legit choices to start the year in MLB in 2012 is a best case scenario.
Now with 33% more Kavula
by Humma Kavula on Dec 13, 2010 10:05 AM PST up reply actions
This Scout.com article doesn’t mention a representative when Kershaw signed originally, and it only took him about two weeks. And correct me if I’m wrong, but that was before they cut off the signing date at some time in August, right?
by StolenMonkey86 on Dec 12, 2010 10:27 PM PST up reply actions
Kershaw
pitched more than any subsequent pitcher taken first by the Dodgers
2006 – Kershaw – 37 IP (Gulf League)
2007 – Withrow – 9 IP (Gulf League)
2008 – Martin – none
2009 – Miller – 36 IP (Arizona, Midwest)
2010 – Lee – none
by bhsportsguy on Dec 12, 2010 10:43 PM PST up reply actions
A plate of Cheetos?
Why a plate? Why not a bowl?
And does that come with or without a moist towlette?
by StolenMonkey86 on Dec 12, 2010 10:40 PM PST up reply actions
I can only hope Colletti does it
Kershaw is probably willing to do that. It’s not like he doesn’t like long-term commitments. Now, there’s only so much that personal religious conviction will do to sway his decision not to pursue bigger money later, but to be fair, he’s not a Scott Boras client. In this market, 5/36 is probably not a bad deal, and I think he should do it.
I don’t know how things will work with Billingsley, who like Matt Kemp is represented by Dave Stewart. I know that’s a topic for another post, but I can’t help but wonder if Kershaw would want to be the first player to be under contract for 2015.
by StolenMonkey86 on Dec 12, 2010 11:30 PM PST reply actions
Hey, this sounds like a phenomenal idea...
… http://mikesciosciastragicillness.com/2010/08/16/youd-give-clayton-kershaw-30m-right-now-right/
;)
Seriously though, this really should have been the #1 priority off the offseason. If Kershaw explodes next year like we all hope he does, then his price jumps by $10-$15m, easy. I know they want to have one more year where they’re only paying him ~$500k, but that’s going to cost them in the long run.
http://www.mikesciosciastragicillness.com
Ha!
Ahem:
August 15:
http://mobile.losangeles.sbnation.com/2010/8/14/1623285/the-price-for-clayton-kershaw-just
August 16:
http://mikesciosciastragicillness.com/2010/08/16/youd-give-clayton-kershaw-30m-right-now-right/
:)
by Eric Stephen on Dec 13, 2010 7:05 AM PST via mobile up reply actions
I was just busting your balls. Your post had more detail.
by Eric Stephen on Dec 13, 2010 7:08 AM PST via mobile up reply actions
Damn!
Bested again.
http://www.mikesciosciastragicillness.com
by Mike Petriello on Dec 13, 2010 7:26 AM PST up reply actions
At no point will Ned Colletti
go into a season with the plan to have two starting rookie position players. It goes against everything we have learned about how Ned operates. The past does tell you about the future. The odds of any of Sands, Trayvon, or Gordon even being good enough to ever start in the Major Leagues for a pennant contending team are already long, the odds that two of them will be good enough is off the charts.
I have no idea why BH feels Loney will be here two years unless he produces beyond what he has accomplished the last two years. The decision next winter should be an easy one. He either hits this year like a 1st baseman should and is kept for one more year, or he doesn’t and is easily non – tendered.
It is easy to say lock of Kershaw, but besides the fact we’d need Clayton to even agree to such a deal do we even have the budget to make it happen?
Martin’s collapse was as sudden as I’ve ever witnessed in all the time I’ve been a Dodger fan. One minute he looks like a possible MVP candidate, catches just about every inning of an exciting extra inning all – star game, and in the blink of eye became the current Kendall. He literally went from being in the discussion of the best catcher in the game to a catcher might not even be better then Rod Barajas.
Blake Griffin and Eric Gordon look like they are going to score 50 points just about every night like West / Goodrich used to do, to bad they don’t have Wilt, Jimmy Mac, Happy Hairston, and the incredible scoring bench to support them.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
Olney tweets
Yankees are being very agressive on Russell Martin. He also adds he wouldn’t be surprised to hear about an agreement today.
"Heroes get remembered, but Legends never die."
by Tommy Blackjack on Dec 13, 2010 8:22 AM PST reply actions
Weird, on MLB Network
they said the same thing about the Red Sox/Martin this morning. One of them will be right, though I was hoping for Blue Jays. Hope he gets 7 million dollars and then is a bust next year.
There's no need to fear, Underdog is here! / Broncos/Dodgers/Lakers fan in Niners/Raiders/Giants/Warriors country, and damned proud of it.
The Baseball Forecaster from Baseball HQ is out
Nobody digs into the peripherals better then they do when making projections.
Good News – They love our pitching, I mean love it.
Not – So Good – News – They think James McDonald will be very very good
Good News – They expect a large comeback from Kemp / Andre
Bad News – They expect Casey Blake to continue to decline
Good News – They expect Russell Martin is now what he is which ain’t much
Bad News – They think Loney is as bad as most of you think and any hope for a material improvement has probably sailed.
Good News – They still love Elbert’s arm
Semi Good News – they expect Uribe and Barajas to both hit 20 bombs. In the the Uribe signing did anyone notice how bad Uribe’s road splits were. Most of his hitting was done at home, which is cool if he does the same at the Ravine, but if for some reason he simply loved AT&T park and does not translate those home numbers to Dodger Stadium we are in for a world of hurt.
Good News – Still like Furcal
So after perusing the numbers, they love our pitching both starting and relieving, offense outside of the corners good. Having a weak offensive 1st baseman will hurt us, having a weak offensive 3rd baseman not so much in this day and age where non elite 3rd baseman hit like 2nd baseman.
Roto wise, only Trayvon Robinson made their top 50 roto prospects and he was number 50 just because of the opening in LF. This would be players who might have an impact on the 2011 season not the best prospects in the minor leagues.
MLE’s for players from the Pacific Coast League who played for the Isotopes are all terrible no matter how much they hit for the Topes.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
Thanks for that
All seems pretty reasonable and likely to me. At the worst, hey, maybe Uribe will put the hurt on his former team in SF.
There's no need to fear, Underdog is here! / Broncos/Dodgers/Lakers fan in Niners/Raiders/Giants/Warriors country, and damned proud of it.
Dan Aykroyd is smarter then the average bear
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20101213/ap_en_tv/us_film_dan_aykroyd
This is like the stories our dads used to tell us about going to school, except Dan is more my age. Then again it is Canada where I thought everyone was nice.
Aykroyd, 58, recounts how at age 8 or 9, he would leave home at 7 a.m. zipped up in a snowsuit, walk past a den of timberwolves, scramble over a stand of greasy cut timber, cross a frozen river (sometimes falling in) and race across a highway in a bad neighborhood to his school.
Then the real fun would begin.
“I would get my books thrown around, and people would beat me up. I’d go in, I’d have to take my pants off and put them on the radiator in front of all the girls in class because I was frozen,” Aykroyd said in an interview to promote “Yogi Bear,” which hits theaters Friday. "Then I’d have to, at 3 in the afternoon, leave and do the whole thing again and go back.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
Dan Aykroyd
is all that is man.
"Heroes get remembered, but Legends never die."
by Tommy Blackjack on Dec 13, 2010 8:33 AM PST up reply actions
I expect
in school after he was bullied not even in his wildest dreams did he dream of the success he has had in life. Spies Like Us found him his long term wife. Not a bad catch for a guy getting beat up on his way to school whose claim to fame at 10 years old was being able to imitate Yogi the Bear.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
maybe not dreamed
but I’ll bet once or twice he said to himself “I’ll show them.”
"Heroes get remembered, but Legends never die."
by Tommy Blackjack on Dec 13, 2010 8:44 AM PST up reply actions
Oh I'm sure he dreamed of showing them
but hard for anyone to dream of the level he had reached by his mid 30’s.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
Any programmers want to get into a baseball based business?
Dear Baseball “Insighters”,
With some initial success in 2008 and 2009, we’ve come to a crossroads in our search for talent that can compliment our team and help us take the next step as a business.
We are in the market for a talented, highly motivated programming star who can help help us realize our vision. My SQL, XML, data integration, and front-end skills required. B.A. and understanding of baseball fundamentals preferred. We are offering an equity positon based on experience and availability to the right candidate(s).
Before we go to the VC’s and tap the capital markets, we wanted to check with our community first to see if there’s anyone out there who has as much of a passion for fantasy baseball as we do.
Please email me if you or someone you know may be a good fit.
Until then, Happy Holidays!Dave Wysocky
GM Baseballinsights
gm
@
baseballinsights.com
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
Ken Rosenthal says Dodgers "in discussions with Bill Hall" to be "primary leftfielder"
Well, at least Hall could be that left-masher to pair up with Gibbons….oh wait….
Hall vs. lefties in 2010— .199 BA, .276 OBP, .404 SLG with 50Ks in 146 ABs
He had an 841 ops against righties
LAST SEASON, I led this team in ninth-inning doubles in the month of August!
Gibbons really isn’t that bad against LHP, so the need for a strict platoon is reduced. If they bring in Hall he will likely get most of the starts against both RH and LHP.
Ethier and Loney are though
so it would have been nice to add a lefty masher to the lineup. At least Blake can hit them.
LAST SEASON, I led this team in ninth-inning doubles in the month of August!
I still think it might be better
to make a run at Beltre and bring him home and move Blake to LF/1B duties. You can secure a position of need and give the minors a chance to develop someone for a few years and Casey can platoon with Gibbons and Loney when we need someone to mash LHP. None of the available righty LFs impress me all that much, and with Beltre you know exactly what you’re getting: Gold Glove defense along with OK offense, with the potential for much more if he swings like he’s capable. All that being said, I doubt Colletti will be able to sign Beltre…but I can dream. :-)
"The only thing necessary for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing."
Just so I'm sure
You think it might be better to acquire Beltre than Hall?
Duly noted. :)
by Eric Stephen on Dec 13, 2010 9:28 AM PST via mobile up reply actions
I think Cliff Lee is good
maybe we could get him too?
LAST SEASON, I led this team in ninth-inning doubles in the month of August!
I am not a risk-taker
and therefore unable to make bold statements, i.e. Beltre is a better player than Hall. It’s just not in my nature. :-)
"The only thing necessary for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing."
tough call...
Yeah if $ were not a factor in the Dodgers decision making process (Dodgers right?), then I would have to agree that Beltre would have more value than Hall.
"They will never ketchup to all of the energy that I've mustard"
Well
It might be better to have Beltre’s five year contract in 2010 more then Bill Hall’s one or two year deal but over the lifetime of the deal, we probably would be better off with Bill Hall then Beltre. Just saying.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Dec 13, 2010 10:11 AM PST up reply actions
If we give Bill Hall one year we are crazy.
Now with 33% more Kavula
by Humma Kavula on Dec 13, 2010 10:12 AM PST up reply actions
crazy are we year one Hall give we if
"Heroes get remembered, but Legends never die."
by Tommy Blackjack on Dec 13, 2010 10:14 AM PST up reply actions
You mean
You don’t think Beltre will play like it’s his contract year every year?
by StolenMonkey86 on Dec 13, 2010 10:33 AM PST up reply actions
no he will only play like a contract year
during a …. wait for it… a contract year
"They will never ketchup to all of the energy that I've mustard"
We have a shot at a sub .300 team on base if we do this.
@andrewngrant
by regfairfield on Dec 13, 2010 9:29 AM PST up reply actions
its ok
chicks dig the long ball
LAST SEASON, I led this team in ninth-inning doubles in the month of August!
ah, maybe that's it
Colletti sees how depressed Frank is after his divorce, so he thinks, “I need to get this guy laid. I know, I’ll sign a bunch of power-hitters which will bring the tail to the stadium. Chicks dig the long ball.”
"Heroes get remembered, but Legends never die."
by Tommy Blackjack on Dec 13, 2010 9:37 AM PST up reply actions 3 recs
best plan ever?
or best plan ever?
LAST SEASON, I led this team in ninth-inning doubles in the month of August!
2010 OBPs
Ethier – .364
Furcal – .360
Loney – .329
Blake – .320
Hall – .316
Kemp – .310
Uribe – .310
Barajas – .284
Pitchers – .132
Kemp and Loney are the only guys that have a good shot at improving on that.
@andrewngrant
by regfairfield on Dec 13, 2010 9:35 AM PST up reply actions
And Furcal
has a shot at stepping back into his odd year .275/.335/.360 line
by StolenMonkey86 on Dec 13, 2010 9:42 AM PST up reply actions
Looks like I will not be getting any mini-plans this year.
by robotmadeofnails on Dec 13, 2010 9:48 AM PST up reply actions
Meh
I still stole the mini plan gift at last years first day of ticket sales celebration.
Take that moral standards upon society
George Lazenby is James Bond!
by Bobblehead Addict on Dec 13, 2010 9:51 AM PST up reply actions
One thing good
about a Hall signing is that it likely keeps Castro off the team, at least initially. The depth chart assuming a Hall signing is something like this:
1B – Loney/Gibbons/Blake
2B – Uribe/Carroll/Hall
SS – Furcal/Uribe/Carroll
3B – Blake/Uribe/Hall/Carroll
I would think that they would use that last bench spot on another player with some power like Mitchell, who has the added benefit of even more versatility.
In 146 ABs
A lot can happen. In 1995, A-Rod hit .233/.264/.408 in 142 AB.
For his career Hall hits .259/.330/.461 vs LHP. I’d trust that line more, particularly since he had a .244 BABIP vs LHP last year.
by StolenMonkey86 on Dec 13, 2010 9:40 AM PST up reply actions
Looking at years other than 2010 for Bill Hall is not good for Bill Hall.
@andrewngrant
by regfairfield on Dec 13, 2010 9:41 AM PST up reply actions
2008
he had a .893 ops against lefties! omg.
LAST SEASON, I led this team in ninth-inning doubles in the month of August!
It’s gotta be hard to hit that well against lefties and still have a .690 OPS.
@andrewngrant
by regfairfield on Dec 13, 2010 9:44 AM PST up reply actions
I'm doing a story
at 02:00 that talks about those splits.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Dec 13, 2010 10:09 AM PST up reply actions
In the end I’m not sure the splits will end up mattering, because I don’t think the Dodgers will run a platoon in LF. I think the guy they sign — likely Hall — will end up getting the majority of the starts in LF if he is healthy. Gwynn will be next in line, and Gibbons will start only occasionally IMO.
by Eric Stephen on Dec 13, 2010 10:13 AM PST up reply actions
Right
but my concern going in was that if we sign Hall to be the everyday LF, we would be killing ourselves. However if Bill Hall like Jayson Werth has learned how to hit RHP at a better clip, and can rediscover his ability to hit LHP, then he might be worth the gamble to be our everyday LF.
With each signing Ned is looking more like Arizona, home run hitting, high K guys, who have trouble getting on base. Is Chris Young in our future?
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Dec 13, 2010 10:15 AM PST up reply actions
I agree
Bill Hall is a complete gamble signing.
by Eric Stephen on Dec 13, 2010 10:17 AM PST up reply actions
The Big "Ten" is a joke
They named their two divisions “Legends” and “Leaders.”
by Eric Stephen on Dec 13, 2010 9:26 AM PST via mobile reply actions
Lame
"Heroes get remembered, but Legends never die."
by Tommy Blackjack on Dec 13, 2010 9:28 AM PST up reply actions
One man's trash is another championship team's treasure.
But then again don’t the Yankees have a history of picking up players not wanted in LA anymore?
George Lazenby is James Bond!
by Bobblehead Addict on Dec 13, 2010 9:37 AM PST up reply actions
no
that’s the Mets :)
"Heroes get remembered, but Legends never die."
by Tommy Blackjack on Dec 13, 2010 9:38 AM PST up reply actions
really?
I thought it was the other way around, unless I’m unware Darryl Strawberry was in our farm sysytem.
George Lazenby is James Bond!
by Bobblehead Addict on Dec 13, 2010 9:40 AM PST up reply actions
well I was referring more to Piazza an Lo Duca. Though “unwanted” is untrue for Piazza, unless your talking about the money Fox wanted to pay him.
"Heroes get remembered, but Legends never die."
by Tommy Blackjack on Dec 13, 2010 9:44 AM PST up reply actions
That's why I don't watch the Simpsons anymore.
Take that Fox!
George Lazenby is James Bond!
by Bobblehead Addict on Dec 13, 2010 9:47 AM PST up reply actions
You can still root for Martin
When the Yankees play at Angels stadium.
George Lazenby is James Bond!
by Bobblehead Addict on Dec 13, 2010 9:41 AM PST up reply actions
I am rooting for him to get paid a ton
so we know we didn’t narrowly miss out, and then for him to stink (sorry Russ).
There's no need to fear, Underdog is here! / Broncos/Dodgers/Lakers fan in Niners/Raiders/Giants/Warriors country, and damned proud of it.
If he goes to the AL East
aren’t the majority of those parks “hitter parks”? Yankee stadium, Fenway, Camden Yards, Roger Centere. I’m not sure about Tropicana Field, but I think I remember hearing it was more neutral. Maybe that’s why it’s supposedly so hard to pitch there.
"Heroes get remembered, but Legends never die."
by Tommy Blackjack on Dec 13, 2010 10:02 AM PST up reply actions
More so than NL West, definitely.
So when he’s on the field he may hit well.
When. ;-)
There's no need to fear, Underdog is here! / Broncos/Dodgers/Lakers fan in Niners/Raiders/Giants/Warriors country, and damned proud of it.
Watch Bill Hall get a 4-5 million dollar deal
I love it when the Dodgers pay crappy players well more than they should be
by SeanMillerSavior on Dec 13, 2010 9:42 AM PST reply actions
speaking of that
any word on how much they are paying Navarro?
"Heroes get remembered, but Legends never die."
by Tommy Blackjack on Dec 13, 2010 9:44 AM PST up reply actions
Don’t forget to make that a 3 year
George Lazenby is James Bond!
by Bobblehead Addict on Dec 13, 2010 9:45 AM PST up reply actions
Question
How many #6/#7 hitters will this team have? I keep trying to make out a lineup, but I can’t get past the #2 hole (Kemp?). We have an overload of slow/OBP-challenged/powerish hitters.
Ethier
is better than a #6 hitter.
"Heroes get remembered, but Legends never die."
by Tommy Blackjack on Dec 13, 2010 9:48 AM PST up reply actions
I’d hit Loney second because of his on base skills. Probably Furcal, Loney, Ethier, Kemp, Uribe, Blake, Hall, Barajas.
In reality Juan Uribe will hit second.
@andrewngrant
by regfairfield on Dec 13, 2010 9:50 AM PST up reply actions
Generally slow dude who doesn’t go first-to-third very much.
by silverwidow on Dec 13, 2010 10:10 AM PST up reply actions
that’s most of the team, isn’t it?
Winter is coming.
by Maddz on Dec 13, 2010 10:12 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Well, except for Gwynn, Furcal and Kemp, yeah.
by silverwidow on Dec 13, 2010 10:12 AM PST up reply actions
Right
you scoff but I’d rather Barajas swing for the fences every at bat, then take a walk, get bunted to 2nd by the pitcher, then get to 3rd on a Furcal single, only to be stuck at 3rd when Uribe strikes out. If your batting eight and your fat and slow, swing hard baby, swing hard.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Dec 13, 2010 10:24 AM PST up reply actions
I expect him to swing out of his shoes with consistent fashion
"They will never ketchup to all of the energy that I've mustard"
I’d rather see a mix of some of the one kind of guy and some of the other kind of guy.
Now with 33% more Kavula
by Humma Kavula on Dec 13, 2010 10:27 AM PST up reply actions
But he's what we have
so instead of lamenting the OB skills, celebrate the power skills.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Dec 13, 2010 10:29 AM PST up reply actions
swing hard
sweet chariot?
LAST SEASON, I led this team in ninth-inning doubles in the month of August!
/Flies out to short right field.
@andrewngrant
by regfairfield on Dec 13, 2010 10:36 AM PST up reply actions
I was at the game he hit his one homerun and DS.
"Heroes get remembered, but Legends never die."
by Tommy Blackjack on Dec 13, 2010 10:36 AM PST up reply actions
In the case of Adam Dunn, a selfish guy that hits for power and takes a lot of walks. What an asshole.
by robotmadeofnails on Dec 13, 2010 10:22 AM PST up reply actions
Fire Joe Morgan Glossary
“Clogging up the basepaths.”
In a now infamous episode of Baseball Tonight, Harold Reynolds and John Kruk accused players like Frank Thomas of taking too many walks when they should be driving in runs. In their words, "clogging up the basepaths." We shit you not.
Many Cubs fans have written us to point out that the phrase might more accurately have been coined by Dusty Baker, and there seems to be ample evidence to support their claim. Regardless, it belongs in the Pantheon of Dumb
FJM Glossary page here.
by StolenMonkey86 on Dec 13, 2010 10:40 AM PST up reply actions
He is our best candidate for both
LAST SEASON, I led this team in ninth-inning doubles in the month of August!
with a Hall signing
Furcal
Uribe
Ethier
Kemp
Loney
Blake
Hall?
Barajas
Pitcher
"They will never ketchup to all of the energy that I've mustard"
Furcal
Kemp
Ethier
Uribe
Loney
Blake
Barajas
Hall?
LAST SEASON, I led this team in ninth-inning doubles in the month of August!
uribe cleanup?
We desperately need a LF w/ power
"They will never ketchup to all of the energy that I've mustard"
Uribe getting the 2nd most AB
would be worse. I also don’t think he is that fast, but I could be wrong.
LAST SEASON, I led this team in ninth-inning doubles in the month of August!
Great lineup, but......
Furcal
Kemp
Ethier
Uribe
Loney
Blake
Barajas
Hall?
I don’t like Uribe 4th, but what happens when Ethier and Kemp are injured while racing their limos in the parking lot, Furcal trips and impales himself on a broken bat, Blake gets Alzheimer’s disease, Loney breaks his leg going first to third, Hall forgets which team signed him, Barajas is so excited about playing in LA, that he faces the wrong way while Broxton hits him in the head with a 99 MPH fastball, then the ricochet nails Broxton in the face, Kershaw and Billz spike each others pitching hands while rushing out to help him, and an earthquake drops the bleachers on the bullpen?
I'm sayin' "What's in it for me?"
When Furcal gets hurt, and if Kemp does not bounce back, that is a terrible lineup.
Now with 33% more Kavula
by Humma Kavula on Dec 13, 2010 10:21 AM PST up reply actions
For all the talk about speed...
I don’t see it reflected in our lineup.
LAST SEASON, I led this team in ninth-inning doubles in the month of August!
I don't think it matters
We could have signed Crawford or Jayson Werth for LF and this still wouldn’t be a world championship team. We’d have 4 good hitters instead of 3. And yes, I am lumping Kemp into the good hitter pile.
It wouldn't be a good hitting team
but our pitching could end up the best in the NL. That matters.
LAST SEASON, I led this team in ninth-inning doubles in the month of August!
That’s right. With, say, Werth, that would be a below-average, maybe even poor, offense, but it might have been good enough to be on the fringes of the compeltition with great pitching.
Without a guy like that, it’s a poor, maybe even execrable offense that the pitching cannot save.
Now with 33% more Kavula
by Humma Kavula on Dec 13, 2010 10:25 AM PST up reply actions
quite possible
I think Kemp is much better than worth, but I’m sure most would disagree
"They will never ketchup to all of the energy that I've mustard"
I think your trying to say
that Kemp will become better then Werth, other wise I have no idea how you can make that comment.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Dec 13, 2010 10:30 AM PST up reply actions
Sorry but if I was building a team
I would rather have Kemp than Werth. I felt a lot of his stats were due to the bandbox Phillies play in and I’m big on tools. Yes you’re right comparing cumulative offensive stats, the edge definitely goes to Werth, but I’m banking on Kemp having the better career.
I’m a ride or die Kemp / Kershaw fan
"They will never ketchup to all of the energy that I've mustard"
I would say that to REALLY compete, the Dodgers would have needed both to happen: Werth AND Kemp hitting like 2009 Bison.
Now with 33% more Kavula
by Humma Kavula on Dec 13, 2010 10:27 AM PST up reply actions
definitely from an offensive standpoint
but I think our pitching depth makes up for part of our offensive deficiencies
"They will never ketchup to all of the energy that I've mustard"
This team is like a worse version of the 2010 Blue Jays right now.
@andrewngrant
by regfairfield on Dec 13, 2010 10:30 AM PST up reply actions
Who, granted were better than the 2010 Dodgers.
@andrewngrant
by regfairfield on Dec 13, 2010 10:31 AM PST up reply actions
And
might have won the NL West
so really, that is not so bad if that is what we get.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Dec 13, 2010 10:33 AM PST up reply actions
didn't the 2010 Jays
hit like 200+ home runs?
"Heroes get remembered, but Legends never die."
by Tommy Blackjack on Dec 13, 2010 10:35 AM PST up reply actions
Why I added “worse version of”.
@andrewngrant
by regfairfield on Dec 13, 2010 10:36 AM PST up reply actions
We’ll see how well it works without Jose Bautista.
@andrewngrant
by regfairfield on Dec 13, 2010 10:35 AM PST up reply actions
Bill Hall:)
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Dec 13, 2010 10:35 AM PST up reply actions
What kind of contract
would Bautista have gotten if he was a free agent after watching all this money get thrown around do you figure?
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Dec 13, 2010 10:36 AM PST up reply actions
Probably something close to the Dunn deal. There has to be some way to stop “uppercut and pull everything”.
@andrewngrant
by regfairfield on Dec 13, 2010 10:38 AM PST up reply actions
Only if he swings at them
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Dec 13, 2010 10:46 AM PST up reply actions
Jose Bautista was the third best fastball hitter last year and the fourth best slider hitter.
@andrewngrant
by regfairfield on Dec 13, 2010 10:46 AM PST up reply actions
heh
I remember some Twin pitcher hanging a curveball to him. Hit it into the third deck in LF. I think his next at bat he hit a slider off the plate into the hanging RF deck, and that was his first opposite-field HR….ever.
"Heroes get remembered, but Legends never die."
by Tommy Blackjack on Dec 13, 2010 10:53 AM PST up reply actions
More Amazing
Batistas worse pitch was a change up, but he was only 1.5 runs below average on that. That’s a Pujols type feat.
@andrewngrant
by regfairfield on Dec 13, 2010 10:53 AM PST up reply actions
Of the many stories in 2011
his season is one I’m really looking forward to.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Dec 13, 2010 10:54 AM PST up reply actions
Kemp has not done well in the #4 spot.
by 68elcamino427 on Dec 13, 2010 10:40 AM PST up reply actions
I would rather Kemp hit 2nd
and just deal with having someone stupid at #4.
LAST SEASON, I led this team in ninth-inning doubles in the month of August!
Loney, Uribe, Blake, Barajas, and Gibbons should all bat not higher than 6th. Of course, that won’t happen on this team
IIRC
Loney was doing great with runners in scoring position, albeit in the first half.
"Heroes get remembered, but Legends never die."
by Tommy Blackjack on Dec 13, 2010 9:52 AM PST up reply actions
Can we just have etheir
bat 3rd and 4th?
LAST SEASON, I led this team in ninth-inning doubles in the month of August!
How do you suppose Colletti values our farm
I feel like the Zach Lee signing was a step in the right direction but when it comes to giving an opportunity to Sands, Robinson & Gordon…I’m worried he may go the McDonald route.
What would you guys do? Growing pains or not I put a lot of value on player development. I’m personally a big fan of Dejon’s.
"They will never ketchup to all of the energy that I've mustard"
Giving a positional prospect an everyday job is like pulling teeth with Ned. The Giants never did it when he was there and Ned seems very stubborn about breaking in new guys.
With pitchers, if someone really good comes along, they’ll get a shot eventually.
by silverwidow on Dec 13, 2010 10:20 AM PST up reply actions
Since the Hall Train seems to be reaching the the Dodgertown Station
I would like to go on record with my opinion.
I have said so far that I liked most of the moves — even Uribe — provided that none of the moves hindered the Dodgers in their need for a real left fielder. Sure, I thought about a guy like Ordonez, but I could have been satisfied with, say, Johnny Damon.
Bill Hall, like Podsednik before him, does not qualify.
Now with 33% more Kavula
Just keeping the spot warm
for Sands is all.
LAST SEASON, I led this team in ninth-inning doubles in the month of August!
I am so, so hoping that you guys are right about him and Trayvon. There has been a lot of love for those two guys in this thread. Let me raise my glass of gin to be the voice of negative reason:
It is not yet written that either of those guys will be good enough to play major league baseball in 2011 or 2012 (or, y’know, if things go badly, ever).
Now with 33% more Kavula
by Humma Kavula on Dec 13, 2010 10:24 AM PST up reply actions
They will get their chance, its just a matter of when
Trayvon is at least as good of a player as Gwynn Jr. Sands might have a hole in his swing, but he has more power than any Dodgers prospect in quite a long time.
Gwynn is a backup outfielder. If that is where Robinson nets out, I can’t imagine there will be too many calling for him to play every day.
Sands, sure. I am impressed by his AA performance. But he will be back in Chattanooga and I think I’d like to see more of the same…
Far be it from me to call out another man’s hyperbole, but it seems to me that, at this point, the idea of “keeping the spot warm” for Sands is getting ahead of ourselves. We gotta see what he does this year.
Now with 33% more Kavula
by Humma Kavula on Dec 13, 2010 10:31 AM PST up reply actions
Mrs Sands
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Dec 13, 2010 10:33 AM PST up reply actions
I wouldn't
but I’d be pleased for Maddz to be wedded to the Los Angeles Dodger career home run hitter for the decade of 2010 – 2019.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Dec 13, 2010 10:37 AM PST up reply actions
i don't see it. I am so sure of it that
I will owe you a frosty beverage of your choice when he hits his 10th MLB HR.
I'd like
a frosty beverage for every home run he hits over 10:)
and I’ll give you a frosty beverage for every minor league home run he hits over 100.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Dec 13, 2010 10:43 AM PST up reply actions
Yikes
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Dec 13, 2010 10:53 AM PST up reply actions
I don’t even think I’m that down on Sands.
by Eric Stephen on Dec 13, 2010 10:54 AM PST up reply actions
Remember your Heinlin
and don’t equate sex with love, while remembering he loves you and you will be just fine.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Dec 13, 2010 10:42 AM PST up reply actions
I don't think
Ned is doing any “spot warm” work this winter. It is simply how it played out.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Dec 13, 2010 10:32 AM PST up reply actions
I don't think so either
Its been the typical philosophy of this front office. Those guys will get a shot when someone gets hurt.
Not on purpose
doesn’t mean it isn’t happening
LAST SEASON, I led this team in ninth-inning doubles in the month of August!
would love to get a value LF for $5-6M (25 HR)
"They will never ketchup to all of the energy that I've mustard"
I hope Ned follows Canseco on twitter.
I would rather see him stand around in left instead of Bill Hall.
Would rather have Juan Gonzalez than Albert Belle. Hell, I’d rather have Greg Vaughn than Albert Belle.
Do, do, do you have it?
it was a toss up between Gonzalez or Belle
I went with Belle since the first humorous name to pop into my head was Brady Anderson
"They will never ketchup to all of the energy that I've mustard"
he's supposedly
looking for a job
"Heroes get remembered, but Legends never die."
by Tommy Blackjack on Dec 13, 2010 10:35 AM PST up reply actions
Barry Bonds makes more sense than Bill Hall?
Why not sign Barry to a nice 1 year deal?
by 68elcamino427 on Dec 13, 2010 10:38 AM PST up reply actions
Think about it
a perfect fit for this season
by 68elcamino427 on Dec 13, 2010 10:41 AM PST up reply actions
Don't be silly
Barry Bonds is left-handed. Bill Hall is right-handed.
by StolenMonkey86 on Dec 13, 2010 10:43 AM PST up reply actions
geez, I forgot
we already have Tony Gwynn
by 68elcamino427 on Dec 13, 2010 10:44 AM PST up reply actions
Minor league update
The Dodgers have signed Eugenio Velez to a minor league deal with an invite to big league camp.
In addition, tying up loose ends from last week, Closser has an invite to big league camp, but Jon Huber does not (he will start in minor league camp).
I shit you not
when I saw he was non-tendered, i thought to myself “Watch the Dodgers pick him up.”
"Heroes get remembered, but Legends never die."
by Tommy Blackjack on Dec 13, 2010 10:30 AM PST up reply actions
Dodgers need to inject some steroids into him
Hes way too thin
by SeanMillerSavior on Dec 13, 2010 10:30 AM PST up reply actions
can we get a two for one
Gordon & Velez HGH special?
"They will never ketchup to all of the energy that I've mustard"
Maybe if we can convince McCourt to administer the injections
He can receive a life-time ban and be forced to sell the Dodgers. Lets put this plan to use
by SeanMillerSavior on Dec 13, 2010 10:34 AM PST up reply actions
The speedy crazy Giant
who plays infield and outfield? GGAM, Ned loves his Giants.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/velezeu01.shtml
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
He also is apparently
a nincompoop on the basepaths. Fast as all get out though.
LAST SEASON, I led this team in ninth-inning doubles in the month of August!
Velez
is a decent minor league signing. If injuries befall everyone, he can help for a short period of time and sometimes he can put together streaks like the one he had in 2009 at the major league level:
From Jul 28, 2009 to Aug 18, 2009 in 92 plate appearances he did manage this crazy line:
.356/.391/.552
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Dec 13, 2010 10:40 AM PST up reply actions
I’m pretty surprised by the flashes of power he’s shown for being such a little guy. Who’s bigger, him or Gordon?
"Heroes get remembered, but Legends never die."
by Tommy Blackjack on Dec 13, 2010 10:43 AM PST up reply actions
Funny thing about baseball is anyone that can play baseball in the bigs can be Albert Pujols for a month. Hell, A.J. Ellis on based .600 for a month. Pujols is Pujols because he can do it all the time.
@andrewngrant
by regfairfield on Dec 13, 2010 10:43 AM PST up reply actions
Sure
but some never ever ever ever get that hot, so when it happens for a crappy player it is kind of cool. I think
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Dec 13, 2010 10:45 AM PST up reply actions
Oh definitely it’s cool when it happens, but if Jose Castillo and Marlon Anderson can do it, it could happen to anyone.
@andrewngrant
by regfairfield on Dec 13, 2010 10:47 AM PST up reply actions
Right
for Marlon no way he looks at anything else he ever did in his career more fondly then his Sept with us.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Dec 13, 2010 10:48 AM PST up reply actions
If enough players get injured that Eugenio Velez is seen as the answer, the Dodgers are in a whole mess of trouble and it doesn’t matter who plays because they aren’t going anywhere.
In that sense, sure, Velez.
Now with 33% more Kavula
by Humma Kavula on Dec 13, 2010 10:43 AM PST up reply actions
Ah come on
he got 66 plate appearances for the World Champions.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Dec 13, 2010 10:44 AM PST up reply actions
In this sense: “The Giants are the World Champions, despite giving 66 PA to Eugenio Velez.”
Now with 33% more Kavula
by Humma Kavula on Dec 13, 2010 10:45 AM PST up reply actions
In this sense
every World Champion has given out terrible plate appearances to terrible players during the 162 season and still ended up being World Champions.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Dec 13, 2010 10:47 AM PST up reply actions
Not sure how much further I’m gonna go here, except to say that the Dodgers are already planning on giving terrible plate appearances to terrible players, and if something happens such that they are forces to give more terrible plate appearances to an even worse player, that is a sign that things have not gone well.
Now with 33% more Kavula
by Humma Kavula on Dec 13, 2010 10:48 AM PST up reply actions
I'm probably having trouble with your choice of the word "Terrible"
as I don’t see any “terrible” players on the team until I see Juan Castro or Hu on the bench.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Dec 13, 2010 10:51 AM PST up reply actions
Terrible is hyperbole, but I still think the offense will suck, and I further think that Velez sucks, and I further think upon that that if enough players from our sucky offense get hurt and that warrants promoting Velez, then Velez won’t help anything, but that’s not Velez’s fault.
Now with 33% more Kavula
by Humma Kavula on Dec 13, 2010 10:54 AM PST up reply actions
The more negative the posters
are about the Dodger future the more I feel a need to be positive. It would be kind of funny to me if this home run hitting, on base challenged team can actually score enough runs to turn this pitching staff in to a winning combination.
While I don’t subscribe to the complete base clogger line of logic I certainly do think certain players have more value getting on base then others do.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Dec 13, 2010 10:59 AM PST up reply actions
I’m just terribly disappointed by the (probable) Hall signing. You know no one (well, few) have been more consistently negative about the ‘11 squad than me, but I was kinda pulled back from that in recent weeks. As I say, I liked all of the signings. I like the pitching. I even like Uribe… but all of that only to a point. The team’s glaring need was a real LF, but that was OK, because there were a lot of real LF available. It didn’t have to be Werth or Crawford (tho I’d go nuts for them). Any real offensive threat.
I just think the chances that Hall will go back to putting up an 80-OPS+ season (or worse) are way, way too high. And if he does, I just don’t see the point of the other moves. It’s a whole lot of treading water for a team that probably needs an overhaul.
That’s where this is coming from: extreme disappointment. They got my hopes up — with one more reasonable signing for LF, I was on fucking board — but instead I get Bill Hall.
Your larger point is right. Everything could go right for the Dodgers and the power is enough to overcome the low OBP and they win games. But my larger point is right, too: this is a team that needs everything to go right, and it didn’t have to be that way.
Now with 33% more Kavula
by Humma Kavula on Dec 13, 2010 11:05 AM PST up reply actions
Who do you think could be signed for LF
That would make a significant difference? There is no one out there that will dramatically make this team better.
I for one, am happy that we aren’t handing another 3 or 4 year contract to some merely decent player who will hamstring the team’s resources and flexibility down the road.
maggs maybe
if he where to stay healthy, but he wants 2 years for 20 million total. F that noise.
LAST SEASON, I led this team in ninth-inning doubles in the month of August!
So just curious, who would you have liked them to have
(realistically) signed after the Werth/Crawford types? Just curious, not critiquing. As I posted below, I don’t see a lot of excellent options out there in free agency (though there were some trade scenarios we’d talked about).
There's no need to fear, Underdog is here! / Broncos/Dodgers/Lakers fan in Niners/Raiders/Giants/Warriors country, and damned proud of it.
Well, like I said upthread, I thought Damon was a perfect example. Certainly a flawed player, but pretty likely to put up 100 OPS+ or better.
Hall is a guy who is just as likely to completely fall off the map as he is to put up 100 OPS+. Much more likely is that he ends up somwhere in the middle — distinctly and safely below average.
Now with 33% more Kavula
by Humma Kavula on Dec 13, 2010 11:13 AM PST up reply actions
I know. So maybe there was nothing that could be done. That’s why I classify my feeling as “disappointment,” not anger. It’s not clear that Colletti made a mistake….
…except that I do feel that without a real LF, it does reduce the point of all the other signings.
Now with 33% more Kavula
by Humma Kavula on Dec 13, 2010 11:16 AM PST up reply actions
What other signings though?
Most were cheap enough holes being plugged. The only ones he signed for a long term are Lilly and Uribe and although they got a little more annual salary than I hoped, you can’t argue that they won’t be good to have for the next three years regardless of how the 2012/2013 teams are built.
Lilly gives at least a 4th/5th starter over the life of his contract to go along with Kershaw and Billz. Uribe is versatile enough that he will play the next three years at 2B, SS or 3B, while still leaving plenty of room for signings or prospects that pan out.
I was thinking about Uribe in particular. His deal was too much money for too many years. That can be OK but only if that signing does not hinder signings where they are needed more. Like LF.
I don’t have enough info to draw a straight line that says “By signing Uribe, the Dodgers didn’t have enough money to sign a real LF,” but the circumstantial evidence points in that direction.
And Lilly. I think there are a lot of questions about Lilly. He’s getting older and he gives up a lot of home runs. Getting him early was good, but then the Dodgers went and got Kuroda and Garland and Padilla anyway. So now the team has this great pitching and is still missing the LF they have needed since August.
I’m not saying either Uribe or Lilly was a bad signing on its own — surely, they weren’t. I’m saying they were bad signings if their money kept the Dodgers from getting somebody better than Bill Hall in LF.
Now with 33% more Kavula
by Humma Kavula on Dec 13, 2010 11:27 AM PST up reply actions
Like who?
Who would you get for LF?
Lilly and our solid rotation will be more valuable than any LFer not named Werth or Crawford, and I’m glad we didn’t hand out either of those contracts.
I don’t know that I agree. Lilly has value, but much of that value came from the fact that the Dodgers got him early. If they had not been able to get Kuroda and Garland and Padilla, they could point to that.
But they did get Kuroda and Garland and Padilla. I would think that taking the Lilly money and putting it into somebody better on offense might be better. Who? Hell, I don’t know. And it doesn’t have to be LF. Beltre. Dunn.
My point is that these moves were like a bunch of dominoes lined up to fall, but the last one didn’t fall for me. And that makes me wonder what the point was and if it was the best way to spend the money. Maybe it was — like I say, things fall out differently in the FA market and I’m a happy camper. But I gotta ask the question.
Now with 33% more Kavula
by Humma Kavula on Dec 13, 2010 11:36 AM PST up reply actions
Yeah I would prefer Damon as well
The Dodgers were rumored to have been interested in him, too, not sure what happened to that. I know he preferred AL East teams, but was ok going back west. Not sure what his asking price is, though. As Nolander points out, it may have been too rich for our blood, alas.
There's no need to fear, Underdog is here! / Broncos/Dodgers/Lakers fan in Niners/Raiders/Giants/Warriors country, and damned proud of it.
He is expensive and basically just a DH
Dude can’t handle a full season in the OF anymore.
Well he could get spelled by
supersub Jay Gibbons! (Okay, he’s terrible on defense). Er, by Gwynn!
There's no need to fear, Underdog is here! / Broncos/Dodgers/Lakers fan in Niners/Raiders/Giants/Warriors country, and damned proud of it.
Being over the top negative
to me, is just boring.
LAST SEASON, I led this team in ninth-inning doubles in the month of August!
Velez is nowhere near the current roster
and until he is I see no reason to freak out about that. We should just stick to freaking out about the sucky current lineup. :-)
There's no need to fear, Underdog is here! / Broncos/Dodgers/Lakers fan in Niners/Raiders/Giants/Warriors country, and damned proud of it.
Heh
I did like the predictable response from Giants fans cackling on MLBTR comments about Velez playing on the Dodgers, as if he was already penned onto the ML roster. Just as predictable as Ned’s ex-Giants fetish.
There's no need to fear, Underdog is here! / Broncos/Dodgers/Lakers fan in Niners/Raiders/Giants/Warriors country, and damned proud of it.
as suck as our team may be in certain areas (LF, C) we probably aren’t that far off from being the best team in the NL West. Giants are probably slight favorites over us and Colorado with Arizona and then San Diego bringing up the rear. The Giants probably have the most chance for regression of the top teams in our division.
that was my thinking all along
that the division would come back to the Dodgers, as long as they were the most improved team in the division. Of which they are so far before a game has been played..
I'm still saying
Giants offense will be as bad if not worse then ours. Probably worse.
LAST SEASON, I led this team in ninth-inning doubles in the month of August!
If our season relies on ______ being successful/healthy (circle one), we’re fucked anyway.
Do, do, do you have it?
well
can’t you just put “everyone” in that blank?
"Heroes get remembered, but Legends never die."
by Tommy Blackjack on Dec 13, 2010 10:51 AM PST up reply actions
If we give PA time to Velez over our own minor league players, we are just committing to the same philosophy that got James McDonald traded.
I couldn't care less
if our top prospects are in AAA or AA, in fact they might be better off simply staying in AA until they get the call to the big leagues. Nothing wrong with AAA being loaded with ex major leaguers for depth.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Dec 13, 2010 10:50 AM PST up reply actions
Here's how I look at it
There were basically two FA legit LF candidates who would have been a plus for the Dodgers, Werth and Crawford, and they never had a shot at them with both now basically being paid about double what they are worth. (And no I don’t count Dunn as a LF, though I would have loved to add him to 1B). After that, severe drop off, full of crapshoot guys who may or may not help. Hall is one of those guys. I don’t think he’ll cost THAT much but I do worry about yet another erratic guy with potentially low OBP. I think spring training is basically meant to be interesting, especially in LF and the more decent candidates battling it out the better. Sands and Robinson, neither of them stand to be ready to compete this year (though you never know), but if they get a shot in addition to Hall and Gibbons, it may not be that unproductive over there.
So I guess I was resigned to not nabbing a big fish over there anyway, and hoped they’d had someone decent to the mix at least.
There's no need to fear, Underdog is here! / Broncos/Dodgers/Lakers fan in Niners/Raiders/Giants/Warriors country, and damned proud of it.
$4mil too much for Hall
He’s been disappointing at the plate since 2006 and likely benefitted from AL pitching and Boston lineup in particular. I can see him flailing in the NL.
He’s had a 3 year average OPS of .736 vs LHP and a .653 OPS vs RHP
His versatility of infield and OF defense is not needed on this team as well.
I fail to see the value and only see downside.
Better to save money for a Feb signing…she what shakes out.
Its like the money is burning a hole in Ned’s pocket.
If he repeats last year he’s worth the contract, but you really shouldn’t sign guys based on the best case scenario.
@andrewngrant
by regfairfield on Dec 13, 2010 11:02 AM PST up reply actions
For $4M he’d only have to be worth 1 win to get your monies worth. Of course we’d rather have a good LFer trying to be worth 4 WAR than a bad one trying to be worth 1 WAR.
One win is a bench player. Bench players don’t get four million.
@andrewngrant
by regfairfield on Dec 13, 2010 11:12 AM PST up reply actions
At least according to Fangraphs math.
@andrewngrant
by regfairfield on Dec 13, 2010 11:16 AM PST up reply actions
general consensus
is that the $/Win is greater than $4M. And it is not something that Fangraphs made up.
Well who ever it is makes the assumption that $/win is linear, when it’s not.
@andrewngrant
by regfairfield on Dec 13, 2010 11:20 AM PST up reply actions
Short version is that counting up salaries for players with 6+ years of service time and dividing by WAR is just a horribly flawed idea.
@andrewngrant
by regfairfield on Dec 13, 2010 11:27 AM PST up reply actions
The good news is this
Not looking at this from a cost standpoint, but only looking at it from a 2011 standpoint…
- The pitching, especially the starting, will be better in 2011 than 2010 (if only by replacing as many of the 40 crap starts as possible)
- Dodgers 2B hit .253/.339/.330 last season; I think Uribe will be much better than that
- Dodgers LF hit .261/.322/.392 last season; there is reasonable chance Hall/Gwynn/Gibbons can match or beat that
- Dodgers C hit .258/.348/.352 last season; in total, this depends on Navarro, but essentially we have traded 50 points of OBP for 50 points of SLG (could be better with a Dioner rebound, of course)
- I expect the total contribution of Loney, Blake, and Furcal to be worse in 2011, but not dramatically so.
So, in the end, like we have always known, the Dodgers chances to contend will likely depend on the core. If Kemp & Ethier can carry the offense, the team will do well. If not, well, the Dodgers have their work cut out for them.
Except that the Dodgers were nowhere near good enough last year. The baseline for comparison is 80 wins. Do you think that the improvement in pitching, improvement at 2B, and “reasonable chance” for improvement in LF can turn 10 losses into wins? Maybe you do, but that seems like a lot.
Now with 33% more Kavula
by Humma Kavula on Dec 13, 2010 11:09 AM PST up reply actions
If they can replace their 40 crap starts from 2010 (a 6.34 ERA) with better production (say a 4.34 ERA), that’s a huge improvement, not to mention the ~40 or so innings (or more) taken off the bullpen odometer.
Could be some multiplier effect stuff going on here.
by Eric Stephen on Dec 13, 2010 11:11 AM PST up reply actions
I think it’s optimistic to go from 40 crap starts to 0. 40 to 20 is more likely.
@andrewngrant
by regfairfield on Dec 13, 2010 11:13 AM PST up reply actions
Improvements in right and center
and at 1st are possible and arguably likely, but like Eric said its likely ss and 3b regress.
LAST SEASON, I led this team in ninth-inning doubles in the month of August!
That’s not the proper way to look at it. Don’t take last years wins and add/drop based off of this years additions/subtractions. Throw last year out the window and just look at this years talent in summation.
Or improvement could account for 4-5 wins, luck and chance can factor into another 4 or 5 and we have our 10. Because the NL West doesnt really have a dominant team, and I dont expect the Giants to have another charmed season, there is no reason why we cant have some improvement and some luck fall on our side to win the division. It really is a toss up between the top 3 teams, and all 3 are really in the same boat.
by UCLADodger32 on Dec 13, 2010 11:13 AM PST up reply actions
40 crap starts
is a lot of starts.
LAST SEASON, I led this team in ninth-inning doubles in the month of August!
Stop being rational!
There's no need to fear, Underdog is here! / Broncos/Dodgers/Lakers fan in Niners/Raiders/Giants/Warriors country, and damned proud of it.
is teh TBLA faithful
down with Gwynn for CF and moving Dre and Kemp?
Fuck the Rangers in 2010 < never coming down.
by NotJoeTorre on Dec 13, 2010 11:15 AM PST up reply actions
I think every time Gwynn starts, it should be in CF.
I don’t expect that to happen though.
by Eric Stephen on Dec 13, 2010 11:16 AM PST up reply actions
Not that it matters
but do you think Kemp would be offended by being moved?
Fuck the Rangers in 2010 < never coming down.
by NotJoeTorre on Dec 13, 2010 11:17 AM PST up reply actions
Not sure
But I’m not concerned about that.
by Eric Stephen on Dec 13, 2010 11:18 AM PST up reply actions
Its funny because I think he would make a very good RF, just not during Saturday day games.
Fuck the Rangers in 2010 < never coming down.
by NotJoeTorre on Dec 13, 2010 11:20 AM PST up reply actions
I think as long as he plays, Kemp would be fine with a move.
by Eric Stephen on Dec 13, 2010 11:21 AM PST up reply actions
Athletes tend to have egos
but I say fuck their egos.
LAST SEASON, I led this team in ninth-inning doubles in the month of August!
I say fuck anyone whos mad about there 10 million dollar/9 months outta the year job.
Fuck the Rangers in 2010 < never coming down.
by NotJoeTorre on Dec 13, 2010 11:19 AM PST up reply actions
Easy to say
except here this conversation. Kemp is moved from CF to LF, he doesn’t say anything to his manager but lets his agent (Dave Stewart) know he’s not happy about that. Stewart then in turn has the conversation with Ned letting him know his client is unhappy, also just letting Ned know that extension talks usually go easier with players happy about their playing situation. Ned lets Mattingly know, Kemp ends up back in CF>
I don’t know, but what I’ve heard is that while their is little communication between players and managers, agents on the other hand are the middle men who let baseball management know when their clients are unhappy. I could be 100% off base on this as I’m talking only from what I’ve heard.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Dec 13, 2010 11:22 AM PST up reply actions
I’d rather save the$mil for mid year, even giving Trayon and Sands a longer look in LF.
Maybe even doing the Gwynn in CF with Ethier in LF, Kemp in RF until we grow sick of that alongside Gibbons in LF. Gwynn’s D in CF Kemp’s in RF has some sabermetric benefits.
Someone RH might be available in Feb or March too. Or in June-July
For me, impact money…use it for Beltre backloaded or extended Kershaw or Billz.
Hall in LF only is replacement level player
Am I the only one who thinks Robinson and Sands are at least a year away? Sure they are talented and exciting prospects but don’t they have to show a little bit more before we even discuss them being starting players in 2011?
But what if it's too late!! We can't take that chance!
There's no need to fear, Underdog is here! / Broncos/Dodgers/Lakers fan in Niners/Raiders/Giants/Warriors country, and damned proud of it.
I think 99%
of us feel they are a year away, at the least 1/2 year away. No way does either get traction for a starting gig on opening this spring, unless the DeWitt scenario rears its ugly head this spring.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Dec 13, 2010 11:23 AM PST up reply actions
Its time for Robinson
Fuck the Rangers in 2010 < never coming down.
by NotJoeTorre on Dec 13, 2010 11:23 AM PST up reply actions
I don’t agree. Robinson has only played one year of AA ball. If he mashes again next season, then he’ll be ready.
by Julio Nievas on Dec 13, 2010 11:25 AM PST up reply actions
Not a bad life
$850k, and wake up next to Misty May-Treanor on most days.
by Eric Stephen on Dec 13, 2010 11:27 AM PST up reply actions
MLB Network will name the top 20 games of the last 50 years
They introduce the 50 nominated games tomorrow night at 5pm, and fans can vote from tomorrow through January 1. The fan vote will be included in a “blue ribbon panel” and the top 20 will be revealed in January.
Should be fun.
NPUT
Since Bill Hall seems to be the big center of discussion might as well get this over with now.
http://www.truebluela.com/2010/12/13/1873306/bill-hall-starting-lf-for-the-dodgers-maybe-not-so-crazy-an-idea
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
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