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Around SBN: Win or Lose, Boston Celtics' New Big 3 Era A Success

Clippings from around the Dodger Blog World

Dodger Divorce: A handy refresher. - Joshua breaks it down. As usual a great read.

Memories Of Kevin Malone: Prospect Profiles 2010: Ethan Martin - Kensai starts up his must read prospect profiles.

Memories Of Kevin Malone: Prospect Profiles 2010: Aaron Miller

A black eye at Dodger Stadium that needs to be removed | Dodgers Blog | Los Angeles Times -  xxxxx sucks is a chant that should be retired. Based on the comments, fans feel they have paid for the right to be boorish, which evidently trumps the right I paid to watch a baseball without listening to stupid chants. 

Dodger Prospect Countdown: 50 - 41 (Plus recap) - True Blue LA - Coolguy_Eight continues his prodigious undertaking by ranking 200 Dodger prospects.

The Dodger Thoughts 2010 Spring Training Primer - Dodger Thoughts Blog - ESPN Los Angeles - Jon covers everyone showing up this spring.  Some obscure relief pitcher will get little respect and somehow make a name this season.  Players in the past like Saito, Wade, and Bellisario shocked all of us when they become cornerstones to the teams bullpen. Who will it be this year?


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There will be no Saito, Wade, or Belisario this year.

by Tripon on Feb 15, 2010 1:08 PM PST reply actions  

They’re pretty well known. Who the heck knew about Belisario before spring training?

by Tripon on Feb 15, 2010 1:28 PM PST up reply actions  

I tend to agree, just because on paper the bullpen is pretty deep as is. But it happens every year, just when we think we have a handle on just how everything will play out, someone or something comes out of the blue to surprise us.

by Eric Stephen on Feb 15, 2010 1:22 PM PST up reply actions  

i agree

but that is because we dont need one… cause we have so many great bullpen pieces already

by matthewmafa on Feb 15, 2010 1:26 PM PST up reply actions  

For some reason

The comment about Fisher’s article made me think of Mitch Hedberg:

The Dodger article blurb naming intitute: What does this article do? It refreshes. Well then it’s a refresher. I’m going on break.

by Eric Stephen on Feb 15, 2010 1:37 PM PST via mobile reply actions  

Can you squeeze a football field into Dodger Stadium?

It’s mighty close, but just maybe.


If you try to go from home plate to CF, the corners of the end zone seem to stick into the dugouts, but one might just fit from home plate to the bullpen gate. That makes for a heck of a lot of bad seats though.

The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.

by David Young on Feb 15, 2010 1:48 PM PST reply actions  

According to the Denver Post:

Helton > Loney
Barmes > Belliard
Tulowitzki > Furcal
Stewart = Blake
Gonzalez > Manny
Fowler < Kemp
Hawpe < Ethier
Iannetta = Martin

COL starters > LA starters
COL bullpen = LA bullpen

Thoughts?

by silverwidow on Feb 15, 2010 1:52 PM PST reply actions  

Helton > Loney ….. helton is better but if loney were playing half his games in colorado rather then DS then i think he would put up better numbers…

Barmes = Belliard ….. honestly barnes sucks… .240 hitter who hits 20 homers… nice.. he will probably be replaced by EYJR sometime next year…

Tulowitzki > Furcal….. pretty obvious tulo is top 3 NL SS..

Stewart < Blake… casey is way more reliable then stewart whose only advantage is power..

Gonzalez = Manny manny is manny his presence in the lineup will always be felt even if he isnt the 1000 OPS manny… gonzalez besides a little hot streak in the majors hasnt dont anything big…

Fowler < Kemp…. fowlers one of my favs but matt kemp is top 3 Center fielder in MLB

Hawpe < Ethier… this is actually close to a tie but ethiers D is not as bad as hawpes and their offense is pretty similar with ethier having a slight advantage..

Iannetta = Martin

COL starters > LA starters ubaldo and kershaw cancel… hammel is a stud and cancels bills… cook and kuroda cancel de la rosa is a stud and better then padilla and their fifth starter jeff francis is better then our options…

COL bullpen < LA bullpen our bullpen is best in the mlb… i have no idea how its equal…. they have some good options too.. but it isnt as good as ours..

so i changed our second base to equal as theirs… blake is better then stewart.. manny and gonzlaez are equal.. and our bullpen is better then colorado.

also their bench is way better then ours..

by matthewmafa on Feb 15, 2010 2:07 PM PST up reply actions  

I am totally not sold on Jason Hammel. I think he’s due for some regression and wouldn’t be surprised if his ERA+ is under 100 in 2010.

The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.

by David Young on Feb 15, 2010 2:13 PM PST up reply actions  

Hammel would have to put up a mid 5.00 ERA to post an below average ERA+ in CO. It may not be the hitters heaven it once was, but its still considered the best hitters park in the majors.

by Tripon on Feb 15, 2010 2:14 PM PST up reply actions  

You mean mid 4s, right? Last year, a 100 ERA+ with the Rockies was roughly a 4.58 ERA.

by Eric Stephen on Feb 15, 2010 2:17 PM PST up reply actions  

He is still plenty capable of getting lit up on the road.

The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.

by David Young on Feb 15, 2010 2:18 PM PST up reply actions  

95 innings 89 hits 24 walks 70 Ks on the road...

for a rookie those are awfully impressive numbers…

by matthewmafa on Feb 15, 2010 2:24 PM PST up reply actions  

Not a rookie

207 1/3 IP in the majors before 2009.
I think his 0.9 HR/9 last year is likely to be a bit of a fluke. 10.3 H/9 is high but in family with his career, and I’ll bet his 2.1 BB/9 goes back up.

The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.

by David Young on Feb 15, 2010 2:28 PM PST up reply actions  

The HR/9 was a tad low (9.7% of his FB became HR, a bit below average), but he was a pretty good ground ball pitcher (1.49 GB/FB last year) so I don’t know how much his HR rate can go up.

by Eric Stephen on Feb 15, 2010 2:30 PM PST up reply actions  

Yeah, there’s no way he equals Bills, not a chance in hell.

by Ivdown on Feb 16, 2010 11:38 AM PST up reply actions  

Bullpen? Starters?

Broxton > Street
Sherrill, Kuo, Belisario, Troncoso > Betancourt, Corpas and whoever.

Who knows what they can expect from Jeff Francis coming back. Their starters are Jimenez, Cook, De la Rosa, Francis, and Hammel. That seems more like an = than a > to me.

The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.

by David Young on Feb 15, 2010 2:09 PM PST up reply actions  

francis is their 5th starter

and hes proven that he can last in the mlb… none of our fifth starter candidates have…

hammels road numbers were ace like… if coors didnt kill him he would be one of the best pitchers last season….

by matthewmafa on Feb 15, 2010 2:12 PM PST up reply actions  

Small sample size.

Francis was awful in 2008 – who knows how long he was actually hurt – and missed all of 2009. His health has to be considered a huge question mark, and one shouldn’t expect that he comes back as the pitcher of 2007 and before. He’s as big or bigger question mark than Padilla, IMO.

The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.

by David Young on Feb 15, 2010 2:16 PM PST up reply actions  

Jason Hammel in 2009

Home: 3.55 x-FIP
Away: 4.03 x-FIP

by Eric Stephen on Feb 15, 2010 2:23 PM PST up reply actions  

Not true

Three of the five Rockies’ starters had a higher x-FIP than ERA at home (Ubaldo, Marquis, Cook). De La Rosa and Hammel were the ones who had lower x-FIP.

by Eric Stephen on Feb 15, 2010 2:28 PM PST up reply actions  

Yeah

it just seemed the disparity between his ERA and FIP/x-FIP was so huge. No doubt he was affected by the flyballs, but those top 3 were among the groundballingest in baseball.

82 starters in MLB with 150+ IP. Here is their rank in GB rate:

2) Cook
4) Marquis
9) Ubaldo
29) Hammel
41) De La Rosa

No wonder they were so good as a group last year. Good luck getting 155 starts out of their top 5 again though.

by Eric Stephen on Feb 15, 2010 2:37 PM PST up reply actions  

The Dodgers have more than 5 5th starter candidates that would be able to get a 4th spot in the rotation for close to half the teams in baseball. That doesn’t mean the Dodgers rotation is all that godly, it just means the talent of Mcdonald, Elbert, and Lindblom could be in many team’s rotations while the steady play of Stults and Haegar could make the end of a bunch of rotations as well. If I would get what I want, which is Mcdonald or Elbert getting the 5th spot, I would take either of them with their potential over Francis returning from an injury season.

by Ivdown on Feb 16, 2010 11:42 AM PST up reply actions  

Roughly:
Ubaldo = Kershaw
De La Rosa = Bills
Cook = Kuroda
Hammel = Padilla
Francis and his injury questions = 5th starter candidates

The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.

by David Young on Feb 15, 2010 2:20 PM PST up reply actions  

this is where we can agree to disagree

i think hammel is a very very good pitcher…. while you think hes a padilla like pitcher…

i would have given hammel the edge… and i would give a now healthy francis the edge over our 5th starter candidates..

by matthewmafa on Feb 15, 2010 2:23 PM PST up reply actions  

I can agree to that

But I’ll believe Francis is healthy when I see it.

The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.

by David Young on Feb 15, 2010 2:24 PM PST up reply actions  

Ian Stewart has a 97 OPS+, can’t hit lefties. Casey Blake has a career 108 OPS+

Expecting Gonzales to be better than Manny is odd considering that Gonzales has to be much better defensively to better Manny huge offensive advantage.

And the I like the Dodgers starters and bullpen better than the Rockies staff. The only breakout the Rockies had is Ublado Jimenez, and its not as if guys like Aaron Cook didn’t struggle last year. De La Rosa is still a wild ass lefty, and Francis is coming off an injury year.

And if they’re expecting Morales to survive Jim Tracy, I have a bridge to sell.

by Tripon on Feb 15, 2010 2:10 PM PST up reply actions  

de la rosa was as good as kershaw last year...

x fip wise and fip wise and advanced metrics stats wise….

by matthewmafa on Feb 15, 2010 2:11 PM PST up reply actions  

2009

Jorge de la Rosa*: 4.38 ERA, FIP: 3.91, X-FIP: 3.76
Clayton Kershaw: 2.79 ERA, FIP: 3.08, X-FIP: 3.90

The only one that de la Rosa beats Kersahw is in X-FIP, and X-FIP assumes that the homerun rate should be normalized.

by Tripon on Feb 15, 2010 2:27 PM PST up reply actions  

yea

thats what someone on another blog was argueing…

they were saying de la rosa is as good as kershaw and kept showing the x fip to prove it…

by matthewmafa on Feb 15, 2010 2:30 PM PST up reply actions  

De La Rosa is already 28, and he pitches in Denver. You have to assume that the current De La Rosa is better than an improving Kershaw will ever be.

by Tripon on Feb 15, 2010 2:32 PM PST up reply actions  

but last year

x fip and home park wise…. de la rosa was a better pitcher then kershaw…

what if de larosa got to pitch half his games in pitcher friendly DS while kershaw had to pitch half his games in thin aired coors?

by matthewmafa on Feb 15, 2010 2:35 PM PST up reply actions  

Which I’ve got a problem with. Rockies pitchers get a pass so to speak because they pitch at Coors and Dodgers pitchers get penalized because they pitch in LA. Kershaw missed bats in 2009 for the most part. With his walks going down his hits per 9 will obviously go up, but I wouldn’t imagine by a whole hell of a lot. Yes there will be a few more homeruns allowed, but not enough to make him a worse pitcher than De La Rosa.

by Ivdown on Feb 16, 2010 11:51 AM PST up reply actions  

I still don’t believe in XFIP, and I take FIP with a grain of salt because there is something to be said about keeping hitters from hitting you. Kershaw was the best in baseball at not allowing hits in 2009. If you don’t think that means something then I don’t know what to tell you. De La Rosa was CERTAINLY not better than Kershaw. Jiminez had a more valuable season than Kershaw in 09, but was not better. Jimenez will be more valuable as long as he pitches that many more innings than Kershaw. Once Kershaw gets up to the 200 inning mark he will be more valuable than Jimenez. But since Jimenez pitched 49 more innings than Kershaw, obviously Jimenez would have more value with the great numbers he put up.

by Ivdown on Feb 16, 2010 11:48 AM PST up reply actions  

Rockies starters in 2009:

Ubaldo Jimenez, 3.47 ERA, FIP: 3.36, X-FIP: 3.63

Jorge de la Rosa*: 4.38 ERA, FIP: 3.91, X-FIP: 3.76

Jason Hammel,: 4.33 ERA, FIP: 3.71, X-FIP: 3.81

Aaron Cook: 4.16 ERA, FIP: 4.60, X-FIP: 4.20

Basically, you have to believe that as a collective staff, the Rockies starters were screwed over by either their defense and/or luck to be bullish on them.

by Tripon on Feb 15, 2010 2:25 PM PST up reply actions  

The problem is that the Rockies is perfectly willing to bench Ianetta for Olivo. The Dodgers wouldn’t do that to Martin.

by Tripon on Feb 15, 2010 2:39 PM PST up reply actions  

trying to create contraversy?

or do you really mean it?

i would take martin OBP over ianettas power any day…

by matthewmafa on Feb 15, 2010 2:40 PM PST up reply actions  

It’s close enough to be debatable, that’s for sure. Ianetta’s a career .229/.354/.427 hitter on the road. I would kill for that line from Martin right about now, even with the low average.

Of course, Martin was a bit unlucky last year, and his prOPS was .284/.382/.396, which is just fine by me. But there is a level of concern with him as to give any claim on Iannetta some merit.

by Eric Stephen on Feb 15, 2010 2:46 PM PST up reply actions  

I really mean it

2009 Martin wOBA .307
2009 Ianetta wOBA .346

My next 2 posts actually are going to involve Martin. I think I’m going to do a “better know a stat”on wOBA, and I’m going to do a follow up on the top 5 post from last week with a focus on Martin’s extreme drop in TBLA support after last season.

by Michael White on Feb 15, 2010 2:46 PM PST up reply actions  

Colorado still has a worse rotation than the Dodgers, and the Dodgers have the best bullpen in baseball. I would put Manny>Gonzalez until we see if Manny is actually done. If not, Manny still put up over a .900 OPS last season.

by Ivdown on Feb 16, 2010 11:37 AM PST up reply actions  

SSR the lakers blog gave me a warning

for asking a question and saying i was confused what an article was about…

by matthewmafa on Feb 15, 2010 2:10 PM PST reply actions  

OT

Disney is being odd and changed the title of their upcoming animated movie from Rapunzel to “Tangled”. Speculation is because people thought Princess and the Frog was a chick flick and couldn’t draw in enough boys to make it more profitable than it was.

by Tripon on Feb 15, 2010 2:13 PM PST reply actions  

Marketing genius

I think there is no way around a Princess movie being marketed as a non-chick flick. At the very least it would be a very difficult endeavour. If they want to market a chick flick kids movie towards boys they are going to need a couple of fire breathing dragons or ninjas. :)
vr, Xei

by Xeifrank on Feb 15, 2010 2:44 PM PST up reply actions  

Finished simulating entire 2010 season

for all teams (link). This is just another source of forecasts to throw into the mix.

Division win totals.
NL West
Dodgers / 93.8
Rockies / 86.7
Diamondbacks / 82.7
Giants / 75.6
Padres / 72.3

NL Central
Cubs / 87.9
Cardinals / 84.6
Brewers / 78.0
Reds / 75.1
Pirates / 72.5
Astros / 71.9

NL East
Braves / 90.3
Phillies / 90.1
Marlins / 81.2
Mets / 75.7
Nationals / 74.9

by Xeifrank on Feb 15, 2010 2:40 PM PST reply actions  

i got the padres for 81 wins

d backs dodgers and rockies for 88 to 94 wins…

with giants LAST with 72 wins

by matthewmafa on Feb 15, 2010 2:41 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Padres

Vegas has their 2010 win over/under at 68-1/2 wins. If you truly believe they will win 81 games, you may have a $golden opportunity$.
vr, Xei

by Xeifrank on Feb 15, 2010 2:52 PM PST up reply actions  

shit!

if i put 1000 dollars on them…. how much will i make?

by matthewmafa on Feb 15, 2010 2:53 PM PST up reply actions  

about $909 (if it’s -110).

by Eric Stephen on Feb 15, 2010 2:53 PM PST up reply actions  

Well, I’m sure if you bet the line up, say you took over 78, you would start getting paid serious odds. You just need a bookie willing to deal….

by Michael White on Feb 15, 2010 2:58 PM PST up reply actions  

alright

gotta wait another 3 and a half years though..

by matthewmafa on Feb 15, 2010 3:01 PM PST up reply actions  

$300 max bet

At The Greek Sportsbook is the max bet. Haven’t looked into other places. It’s usually something like bet $11 to win $10.
vr, Xei

by Xeifrank on Feb 15, 2010 2:58 PM PST up reply actions  

Braves, Phillies – interesting.

The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.

by David Young on Feb 15, 2010 2:47 PM PST up reply actions  

yeah

woah i just noticed dodgers are project to finish with the top seed… are we really that much better then everyone else

by matthewmafa on Feb 15, 2010 2:49 PM PST up reply actions  

Phillies in a 5-game series instead of a 7-game series. Interesting.

How did the Dodgers fare so well? Did they perform better on offense or pitching, or both?

by Eric Stephen on Feb 15, 2010 2:51 PM PST up reply actions  

Manny played a 162-game season.

The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.

by David Young on Feb 15, 2010 2:51 PM PST up reply actions  

Yes

all hitters played a full season. So adjust accordingly for teams that may have injury issues or very weak/strong benches. I took the lazy route on offense. Pitching wise, I believe I modelled things pretty well.
vr, Xei

by Xeifrank on Feb 15, 2010 2:53 PM PST up reply actions  

i cant imagine the dodgers doing better on offense...

pitching we might do better as a whole but in a 5 game series they have halladay going 18 innings will be the deciding factor..

by matthewmafa on Feb 15, 2010 2:52 PM PST up reply actions  

In a five game series, Chris Carpenter didn’t get the chance to go 18 innings.

The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.

by David Young on Feb 15, 2010 2:55 PM PST up reply actions  

Chris Carpenter didn’t have a chance to go 10 innings either. :)

by Tripon on Feb 15, 2010 2:56 PM PST up reply actions  

In 1 game, the difference between Halladay and Carpenter is very small. Anything can happen in 1 game….

by Michael White on Feb 15, 2010 2:57 PM PST up reply actions  

In 2009 Carpenter was arguably better:

Player    ERA+ H/9  HR/9 BB/9 SO/9
Carpenter 183 7.3 0.3 1.8 6.7
Halladay 155 8.8 0.8 1.3 7.8

The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.

by David Young on Feb 15, 2010 3:02 PM PST up reply actions  

yes he was...

carpenter got to play in the nl….

does ERA+ factor leagues?

by matthewmafa on Feb 15, 2010 3:06 PM PST up reply actions  

Yes

But, who knows which team had a better defense behind them….

by Michael White on Feb 15, 2010 3:06 PM PST up reply actions  

vernon wells

one word shows who had the better d behind him…

carp had the best defensive catcher molina along with brendan ryan pujols rasmus ludwick holliday ankiel…..

everyone in st louis was average to above average… st louis had maybe the best D in mlb

by matthewmafa on Feb 15, 2010 3:13 PM PST up reply actions  

3B 2B and LF not all that hot

I don’t think the conventional wisdom and/or UZR numbers of some others are as good as they say

by Salty on Feb 16, 2010 7:37 AM PST up reply actions  

DeRosa, Schumaker and Holliday, respectively, definitely hurt the Cards defensively.

The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.

by David Young on Feb 16, 2010 2:26 PM PST up reply actions  

?

i always thought that holliday was a plus defender in LF?

and i thought shumaker made his transition smooothly and after the first 2 months was actually + in his UZR… and Derosa well ya he is below average but not by alot

by matthewmafa on Feb 16, 2010 2:30 PM PST up reply actions  

I'd call MH competent

He also doesn’t have much of an arm. Schu did better than I thought he would, but he’s no great shakes. DeRosa is in SF.

by Salty on Feb 17, 2010 6:00 AM PST up reply actions  

St. Louis team UZR/150 was -1.5, Toronto’s -4.5.
Dodgers were -1.2.
Seattle led the league at +12.0, Mets were the worst at -7.3

The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.

by David Young on Feb 15, 2010 3:18 PM PST up reply actions  

Ya, I thought Seattle had an excellent defense.

Talking about making it a science experiment, we need to create a WAR stat which uses x-FIP as the input, changes it to a rate stat, and normalizes for league. Then we’re set.

by Michael White on Feb 15, 2010 3:20 PM PST up reply actions  

roy halladay might put up a sub 2.00 ERA with 300 innings pitched this season...

ok maybe not 300 but hes going 8 innings everytime especially getting to face the pitcher and the weaker lineups…(8 spot in nl is weaker then 8 in al…)

by matthewmafa on Feb 15, 2010 2:58 PM PST up reply actions  

Factor in having to get pinch hit for occasionally as well. I’m going to go ahead and say your IP prediction is at least 50 off.

by Eric Stephen on Feb 15, 2010 2:59 PM PST up reply actions  

yeah i was exagurating the IP

maybe 270…

33 starts times 7 innings per start is only 231

by matthewmafa on Feb 15, 2010 3:03 PM PST up reply actions  

Halladay averaged 7.5 IP/start in the AL last year – 32 starts, 239 IP.

The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.

by David Young on Feb 15, 2010 3:03 PM PST up reply actions  

DAMN?

7.5 in the AL EAST???!?

so he will defintly be going 8 in the NL ……

so 8 times 33 is 264

why 32 and not 33 or 34?

by matthewmafa on Feb 15, 2010 3:04 PM PST up reply actions  

He will probably average 7 innings per start, but 8 is a stretch, especially “definitely”

by Eric Stephen on Feb 15, 2010 3:06 PM PST up reply actions  

I mean, don’t get me wrong, I love the guy. Halladay is a true horse. If there’s a guy most likely to throw 250+ innings, I think it’s him. It’s just so hard to predict such a thing with any type of certainty.

by Eric Stephen on Feb 15, 2010 3:10 PM PST up reply actions  

He must have missed a start somewhere along the line. In the AL where he never has to be PHed for when he is tied or trailing.

The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.

by David Young on Feb 15, 2010 3:06 PM PST up reply actions  

I’ll also go ahead and take the over on 2.00 as well. I think he’ll be an elite pitcher in the NL, but I’m not putting him ahead of Lincecum right off the bat.

by prosellis on Feb 15, 2010 3:02 PM PST up reply actions  

hah

lincecum? lincecum wouldnt put up a 3.35 in the AL east….

by matthewmafa on Feb 15, 2010 3:05 PM PST up reply actions  

I think you are overestimating how good the AL East is. There are two top-tier teams there, but the Rays only won 84 games, Toronto isn’t very good and Baltimore blows.

The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.

by David Young on Feb 15, 2010 3:11 PM PST up reply actions  

woah woah woah...

all that matters is the offenses of those respective clubs…

rays red sox yankees offenses were great last year… orioles have a great offensive team also… torontos offense i dont think was very good but wasnt horrible either…

by matthewmafa on Feb 15, 2010 3:14 PM PST up reply actions  

Also, just to get the data out there. Per Baseball Prospectus, quality of opponent batters faced:

Halladay .266/.342/.428 (.770 OPS)
Lincecum .251/.328/.396 (.724 OPS)

BP also had Halladay with a slight edge in VORP, 74.8 to 69.8 (they were 3-4, behind Greinke & Felix).

by Eric Stephen on Feb 15, 2010 3:26 PM PST up reply actions  

True

In 2009:

Team OPS+
NYY 122
BOS 105
TBR 104
TOR 104
BAL 95

Boston, Tampa, Toronto were 3rd, 4th and 5th in the AL though, so pretty decent offensive division overall.

The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.

by David Young on Feb 15, 2010 3:30 PM PST up reply actions  

All what you say is true

since everything points to Doc dominating, we will need something to balance things out. Look for the baseball gods to think up something interesting to keep Doc from dominating.

by meercatjohn on Feb 15, 2010 3:33 PM PST up reply actions  

Lincecum strikes out a lot more guys, walks a few more, and has a nearly identical homerun rate.

by prosellis on Feb 15, 2010 3:11 PM PST up reply actions  

For sake of comparison

Halladay in 2009 only

vs AL East: 18 starts, 135 IP (7.5 IP/gs), 1.0 HR/9, 1.67 BB/9, 7.47 K/9, 3.00 ERA
vs everyone else: 14 starts, 104 IP (7.5 IP/gs), 0.61 HR/9, 0.87 BB/9, 8.31 K/9, 2.51 ERA

Gotta love that K/BB ratio.

by Eric Stephen on Feb 15, 2010 3:18 PM PST up reply actions  

Wow, why are you saying such stupid things? I know all the other people in here will disagree with you respectfully, but I can’t help but call this stupid.

by Ivdown on Feb 16, 2010 12:02 PM PST up reply actions  

Sorry for acting like a jerk too, I’m in a bad mood for whatever reason.

by Ivdown on Feb 16, 2010 12:03 PM PST up reply actions  

I saw someone else say that and you know what I said? “That’s idiotic.” Your generalization that he will do historically great things just because he is in the NL now is really dumb. There are crappy lineups in the AL, you know.

by Ivdown on Feb 16, 2010 11:59 AM PST up reply actions  

I can’t imagine the Rockies doing much better than they did on Pitching either.

by Tripon on Feb 15, 2010 2:55 PM PST up reply actions  

You think Martin and Furcal will do just as horrible as 2009?

by Ivdown on Feb 16, 2010 11:56 AM PST up reply actions  

I will be very pleased if the Dodgers beat the Rockies by seven games. Should I dock the Dodgers a couple wins for Manny’s 30 games not starting?

The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.

by David Young on Feb 15, 2010 2:51 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Dockers

I am not sure how much I would dock. If you think the difference between Manny and his replacement is 4 wins over a season – you would need to dock the Dodgers 0.025 wins per time that Manny did not start. (the 4 win thing was just for example purposes).
vr, Xei

by Xeifrank on Feb 15, 2010 2:56 PM PST up reply actions  

You would also need to dock wins for when Helton is rested, and when Cook, et al. is missing a start due to injury, etc.

by Tripon on Feb 15, 2010 2:59 PM PST up reply actions  

Re: Science project

I wasn’t willing to turn this into a Science Project, thus the methodology I took. I really am more interested in the day to day games for being deadly accurate. :)
vr, Xei

by Xeifrank on Feb 15, 2010 3:01 PM PST up reply actions  

The difference is we know it is very likely that Manny gets 25-30 starts off, but hard to predict how many starts Helton will miss. Xeifrank did sub in 6th and 7th starters at times. (see his link)

The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.

by David Young on Feb 15, 2010 3:05 PM PST up reply actions  

I love the AL West…1.5 wins separating 1st from 4th. Such a tight division.

by Eric Stephen on Feb 15, 2010 3:29 PM PST up reply actions  

Compare Xeifrank to ...

PECOTA, CHONE, and CAIRO.

DIVISION    PECOTA         CHONE          CAIRO         XEIFRANK (Dodger Sims)
AL EAST NYY (94-68) NYY (98-64) NYY (99-63) NYY (102-60)
AL CENTRAL MIN (83-79) MIN (86-76) CWS (87-75) MIN (87-75)
AL WEST TEX (87-75) TEX (85-77) TEX (82-80) SEA (82-79)
NL EAST PHI (88-74) ATL (89-73) PHI (90-72) ATL (90-72)
NL CENTRAL STL (84-78) STL (92-70) STL (91-71) CHC (88-74)
NL WEST ARI (87-75) LA (84-78) LA (91-71) LAD (94-68)

The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.

by David Young on Feb 15, 2010 11:11 PM PST up reply actions  

Apparently CHONE wants to sh*t on the Dodgers and the NL West in general and said the Dodgers and Rockies would tie for 84 wins to lead the West.

Same thing Pecota did before Hudson was signed last season.

by Ivdown on Feb 16, 2010 11:55 AM PST up reply actions  

Xeifrank

so which team do you feel the most confident in betting the over/under at Vegas based on your simulations?

by meercatjohn on Feb 15, 2010 3:08 PM PST reply actions  

Haven’t seen any futures bets just yet, but based on his ratings the Braves look like a decent bet.

by Eric Stephen on Feb 15, 2010 3:11 PM PST up reply actions  

I would want

to see an official over/under number first.
vr, Xei

by Xeifrank on Feb 15, 2010 3:20 PM PST up reply actions  

Maybe

Mets (under)
Indians (under)
Braves (over)
Dodgers (over)

from what I’ve seen so far. Not sure if those are official win over/unders or not.
vr, Xei

by Xeifrank on Feb 15, 2010 3:24 PM PST up reply actions  

That would be...

Mets (under) 89.5
Indians (under) 83.5
Braves (over) 82.5
Dodgers (over) 84.5

I’m not sure if those are leftover prints from last year or if they have correct 2010 futures. The site lists it as 2010. Just not sure.
vr, Xei

by Xeifrank on Feb 15, 2010 3:26 PM PST up reply actions  

I would take the under on the Braves. They lost their best pitcher and they have signed a couple of players that are past their prime.

by vadodger on Feb 15, 2010 5:03 PM PST up reply actions  

Their top four starters are still, in no particular order, Hansen, Hudson, Jurrjens, and Lowe. That alone may keep them close enough to .500 to shy me away from an 82.5 under.

McLouth, Jones, McCann, Heyward could be a pretty good set of bats to start with.

The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.

by David Young on Feb 15, 2010 5:10 PM PST up reply actions  

dont forget troy glaus

and maybe johnny damon… and yunel escobar…

this team is defintly over 82.5

by matthewmafa on Feb 15, 2010 5:21 PM PST up reply actions   1 recs

Hudson you don’t know what you are going to get from him, Lowe was pretty bad last year don’t think that he is going to have a great rebound. If your offense is depending on Glaus and Damon I think that you might have some problems. McCann is their best offensive player. Larry is past his prime. Last year they won 86 games, but like I said they got rid of their best pitcher and they are probably going to face Halladay a couple times this year. And, I expect the Mets to be better than last year

by vadodger on Feb 15, 2010 5:46 PM PST up reply actions  

Braves had a pythagorean record of 91-71, so there’s a lot to like there, even w/o Vazquez.

That said, it may be time to temper our Atlanta aspirations. Jair Jurrjens will have an MRI this week on his sore shoulder. Uh oh.

by Eric Stephen on Feb 15, 2010 5:48 PM PST up reply actions  

They get Halladay, but not Lee.

I suppose this is why they call it “gambling”.

The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.

by David Young on Feb 15, 2010 5:54 PM PST up reply actions  

I just like to announce.

Jose Molina is still a Free Agent.

by Tripon on Feb 15, 2010 3:59 PM PST reply actions  

He’s the all-time Molina Brothers® leader in Rings (2-1-1) :)

by Eric Stephen on Feb 15, 2010 4:06 PM PST up reply actions  

I wonder what set of brothers has the most rings ever.

by Ivdown on Feb 16, 2010 12:29 PM PST up reply actions  

The DiMaggios (Joe, Dom, and Vince) had nine, but those were all Joe.

Yogi (10) and Dale Berra (1, although he didn’t play in the postseason) probably have the most for father & son.

by Eric Stephen on Feb 16, 2010 1:45 PM PST up reply actions  

Uh....

Did that ad just imply lesbian nuns?

by Tripon on Feb 15, 2010 4:14 PM PST reply actions  

Something called Kanaks.

by Tripon on Feb 15, 2010 4:15 PM PST up reply actions  

You can still see

Hong-chih Kuo’s bat-flip HR on mlb.com, called by Vin. I had forgotten that Matt Kemp’s blast to the Loge was the immediately preceding PA. Just a mood-setter while getting ready for Spring Training.

The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.

by David Young on Feb 15, 2010 4:30 PM PST reply actions  

Outstanding…I tweeted that as well. Love it.

by Eric Stephen on Feb 15, 2010 4:36 PM PST up reply actions  

Great moment in an otherwise frustrating season (Hendrickson, Tomko, Gonzalez, Hillenbrand, Kool-Aid, etc)

by silverwidow on Feb 15, 2010 4:51 PM PST up reply actions  

That just gave me chills :)

First off, Kemp’s homerun was monstrous. Second off, Kuo’s homerun actually looked more impressive than Kemp’s, and that take’s a lot considering how great Kemp’s was. Just wow.

by Ivdown on Feb 16, 2010 12:37 PM PST up reply actions  

After watching the downhill I have a hard time

comprehending how the difference of 1/2 a second is the difference between glory and a way back of the pack skier.

by meercatjohn on Feb 15, 2010 4:57 PM PST reply actions  

kensai has his Dee Gordon profile up at MOKM.

The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.

by David Young on Feb 15, 2010 5:42 PM PST reply actions  

Is Mark Mulder retiring? I read earlier today that he was, but I heard on ESPN radio tonight that his agent said no. Is he a free agent? I guess I could look it up myself lol ;)

by keithc13 on Feb 15, 2010 9:55 PM PST via mobile reply actions  

From what it sounds like, Mulder is basically done but wanted to announce it himself, and was not happy that reports leaked out first (this morning).

by Eric Stephen on Feb 15, 2010 9:59 PM PST up reply actions  

If the Cards don’t trade for Mulder, they could had Haren, Wainright, and Carpenter in the same rotation.

by Tripon on Feb 15, 2010 10:04 PM PST up reply actions  

If the Dodgers trade for Randy Johnson in 2004, the D-Backs have Edwin Jackson AND Chad Billingsley right now.

by silverwidow on Feb 15, 2010 10:10 PM PST up reply actions  

I haven’t heard that trade.

by Tripon on Feb 15, 2010 10:17 PM PST up reply actions  

The D-Backs demanded Penny, Billingsley and Chuck Tiffany for RJ in 2004. Who knows if they’d still end up with Edwin years later, though.

by silverwidow on Feb 15, 2010 10:21 PM PST up reply actions  

Penny, Billingsley, and Tiffany For Johnson

…is actually the trade that DePo MADE. Billingsley has said that he received a phone call from the Dodgers officially notifying him that he was now a Diamondback. What happened then is that the Diamondbacks told DePo that they wanted Edwin Jackson as well thrown into the package they would be getting. DePo decided that was a deal breaker and that killed the trade.

by CanuckDodger on Feb 15, 2010 10:27 PM PST up reply actions  

So the D’backs got greedy?

by Tripon on Feb 15, 2010 10:29 PM PST up reply actions  

Or maybe they would have kept Wainwright as closer.

by Eric Stephen on Feb 15, 2010 10:14 PM PST up reply actions  

The Mulder trade allowed the A’s to trade for(and later) Haren, Brett Anderson, Dana Eveland, Brett Wallach, Micheal Taylor, Carlos Gonzalez, and Bret Smith.

by Tripon on Feb 15, 2010 10:16 PM PST up reply actions  

crazy disparate values in A’s ace trades that offseason. Boatload for Mulder; nothing for Hudson.

by Eric Stephen on Feb 15, 2010 10:18 PM PST up reply actions  

Also Chris Carter, their #1 prospect now.

by silverwidow on Feb 15, 2010 10:24 PM PST up reply actions  

I thought he was done, even though he hadn’t announced it yet. I always liked him. Thanks Eric.

by keithc13 on Feb 15, 2010 10:18 PM PST via mobile up reply actions  

Its odd that of the three who survived, its Zito that hit it big. (salary wise, not performance. Then again, you actually have to be healthy to perform.)

by Tripon on Feb 15, 2010 10:19 PM PST up reply actions  

For Phil & Mike, et al

from Ric Bucher:

Source says Clippers have dealt Marcus Camby for Travis Outlaw and Steve Blake. Details and deeper confirmation to follow on the mothership.

No idea of the salary implications either way.

by Eric Stephen on Feb 15, 2010 10:16 PM PST reply actions  

Been awhile

since the Clippers had an Outlaw.

by prosellis on Feb 15, 2010 10:41 PM PST up reply actions  

Micheal White won’t have Marcus Camby to kick around anymore.

by Tripon on Feb 15, 2010 10:42 PM PST up reply actions  

Yup

Camby becomes Portland’s problem. They will be disappointed in Camby; but hey at least they didn’t give the Clippers anything for him.

Maybe this will finally kill the idea that Camby is soooooo desirable on the trade market.

by Michael White on Feb 16, 2010 8:18 AM PST up reply actions  

This seems like a messed up way to learn of the trade

From Yahoo:

In town in advance of their Tuesday game against the Trail Blazers, the Clippers were having a team dinner at Portland’s Ringside steakhouse Monday night when Camby received a call on his cell phone from Blazers general manager Kevin Pritchard. Pritchard informed Camby that he will likely be traded to Portland once the league finalizes the deal on Tuesday.
 
After taking the call, Camby immediately walked out of the restaurant. A source close to him says he is "very upset" about the trade. He had hoped to re-sign with the Clippers this summer.

by Eric Stephen on Feb 15, 2010 11:11 PM PST via mobile up reply actions  

Camby always cries when he's traded

He through a shit-fit when he was traded from Denver to LAC. He kept whining about the organization betrayed him, blah blah blah.

by Michael White on Feb 16, 2010 8:19 AM PST up reply actions  

I don't doubt that

but to hear of the (potential) trade first from the general manager of the other team, while at a dinner with your current team seems off to me.

by Eric Stephen on Feb 16, 2010 8:21 AM PST up reply actions  

It seems like Pritchard overstepped here. The deal is NOT done. The Clippers likely want Portland to take Telfair or Thornton (or else the Clippers really aren’t getting much here in salary relief.) Absent a done deal, what business does Pritchard have talking to a player under contract from another team?

by Michael White on Feb 16, 2010 8:24 AM PST up reply actions  

You’re right; I suppose if the Clips wanted they could file tampering charges.

by Eric Stephen on Feb 16, 2010 8:26 AM PST up reply actions  

Why Thornton? Don’t tell me you are seeing the cap money free up and really think he is going to make a move for Lebron.

by delias man on Feb 16, 2010 8:27 AM PST up reply actions  

That's exactly what the Clippers are thinking

I think its stupid, but that’s where the evidence is pointing. Otherwise there is no sense in this move. Outlaw and Blake expire at the end of the year anyway, so that’s a wash. That’s why there needs to be something else here. A draft pick, or cap relief. Because as of now, the Clippers aren’t getting anything.

by Michael White on Feb 16, 2010 8:29 AM PST up reply actions  

The Clippers have a core that other teams with cap room can not match. CHI,NYK,MIA, NJ do not have the players the Clips do. If he wants to win, he can do it with LAC. They would be able to take over an aging West too.

But, I think the lockout is going to damage the league severely, so it may not matter.

by delias man on Feb 16, 2010 8:38 AM PST up reply actions  

Ya. I can’t imagine LBJ cares that much. He is nearly winning with a crap team in Cleveland, so he will probably win no matter what. And you are right about the lockout. Smart money says LBJ exercises his option (he can’t make as much anywhere next year) and then deals with after it after next season. Why lock himself into a contract before he knows what the labor negotiations will determine.

by Michael White on Feb 16, 2010 8:41 AM PST up reply actions  

Maybe he can not get as much with the new CBA?

by delias man on Feb 16, 2010 8:47 AM PST up reply actions  

Clippers got a couple of “high motor guys” for a “high motor guy that is good”. Not a bad deal though. Not a huge NBA guy here…

by keithc13 on Feb 15, 2010 11:25 PM PST via mobile up reply actions  

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Pos No Player 2012 Salary
C 17 Ellis $490,000
1B 7 Loney $6,375,000
2B 37 Herrera $375,082
3B 6 Hairston $2,250,000
SS 9 Gordon $485,000
LF 23 Abreu $401,311
CF 10 Gwynn $850,000
RF 16 Ethier $10,950,000

OF/1B 33 Van Slyke $388,197
2B/3B 3 Kennedy $800,000
OF/1B 30 Sands $375,175
IF 13 DeJesus $448,992
C 18 Treanor $850,000

SP 22 Kershaw $6,000,000
SP 58 Billingsley $9,000,000
SP 29 Lilly $12,000,000
SP 44
Harang $3,000,000
SP 35 Capuano $3,000,000

CL 74
Jansen $491,000
RHP 52 Lindblom $483,000
RHP 51 Belisario $414,426
RHP 54 Guerra $488,000
RHP 28
Wright $900,000
LHP 57 Elbert $488,500
RHP 60 Coffey $1,000,000

DL 27 Kemp $10,000,000
DL 21 Rivera $4,000,000
DL 12 Sellers $481,000
DL 5 Uribe $8,000,000
DL 55 Guerrier $4,750,000
DL 14 Ellis $2,500,000
60DL 36 Hawksworth $495,000
60DL 41 De La Rosa $485,000

AA 50 Eovaldi $7,885
AAA 56 Antonini $7,869



Manny $8,087,432 deferred


Andruw $3,375,000 deferred


Pierre $3,050,000 deferred
Furcal $3,000,000 deferred
Kuroda $2,000,000 deferred
Garland $1,500,000 option buyout
Blake $1,250,000 option buyout
DFA 66 MacDougal $650,000

Totals
$115,942,869

For more detailed information, click here.

Current 40-man roster count: 42
(incl. De La Rosa & Hawksworth)

Yahoo_full_count

Manager

Eric___ned___reporters_2011_trade_deadline_small Eric Stephen

Editors

100_1427_small Phil Gurnee

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