Clayton Kershaw the object of our affection
by Phil Gurnee on Feb 17, 2010 12:06 AM PST
in Research
118 comments
A few articles lately about Clayton Kershaw have stirred some feelings among Dodger fans, MSTI takes the Dodger blogger point of view that is it not unreasonable to expect great things from Clayton Kershaw while ESPN Insider and Seattle Blogger David Cameron asked "Is Clayton Kershaw Already Declining?.
All of us can read what Mike Petriello of MSTI has to say about what he thinks of Kershaw's possible future but only those with an insider account can read what David Cameron has to say.
What we do know is that Cameron only went back 30 years and used a 180 K year for a 21 year old as his baseline for questioning if Clayton has a golden future or not. I didn't read the article so I won't comment on it but I can comment on the title because that is what I can read.
Jon Weisman didn't quite understand why so many Dodger fans took issue with what Dave Cameron had to say since he felt it was a reasoned article. Maybe Jon forgot he was a Dodger blogger and his readers are Dodger fans, and reason doesn't really apply when you feel rightly or wrongly that one of your own is not getting accolades but warnings of disappointment. I mean hey, the headline was "Is Clayton Kershaw Already Declining". I'm fairly open minded, think of myself of even minded but that headline alone irritated the crap out of me. I'd expect Seattle fans would be just as irritated to see me write a headline "Is Chone Figgins going to be the biggest bust of the 2010 Free Agent Class" but put it behind a pay wall so they can only conjecture about what was actually in the article. It would certainly not stop them from dumping on me even if they never read the inside of the column.
Anyway I have my own opinions about Clayton Kershaw. I've seen Dodger pitchers come and go for forty years, yet we have never had a gem like Clayton Kershaw in my lifetime. We had Fernando but Fernando did it with a cunning screwball not with a blazing fastball. Just to make sure my perception equaled reality I checked to see if we'd ever had a left hander at this age with a K rate and hit rate like this. In 2009 at 21 he led the league with a 6.3 hits per nine innings. Fernando was close but Clayton has been the best, how about in the history of baseball? Would you believe that was the 2nd best H/9 rate in the history of baseball for some one 21 or younger.
Player H/9 IP Year Age BB SO ERA ERA+ HR OPS OPS+
Vida Blue 6.03 312.0 1971 21 88 301 1.82 185 19 .523 55
Clayton Kershaw 6.26 171.0 2009 21 91 185 2.79 141 7 .588 63
Gary Nolan 6.30 150.0 1968 20 49 111 2.40 132 10 .579 75
Kerry Wood 6.32 166.2 1998 21 85 233 3.40 128 14 .626 68
Dave Boswell 6.38 169.1 1966 21 65 173 3.14 115 19 .612 75
Harry Krause 6.38 213.0 1909 20 49 139 1.39 172 2
Wayne Simpson 6.39 176.0 1970 21 81 119 3.02 138 15 .607 66
Babe Ruth 6.40 323.2 1916 21 118 170 1.75 158 0
Dwight Gooden 6.44 276.2 1985 20 69 268 1.53 228 13 .524 52
Al Mamaux 6.51 251.2 1915 21 96 152 2.04 133 3
Fernando Valenzue 6.55 192.1 1981 20 61 180 2.48 135 11 .549 62
Ray Culp 6.55 203.1 1963 21 102 176 2.97 110 15 .635 91
Dwight Gooden 6.65 218.0 1984 19 73 276 2.60 137 7 .545 59
Hal Newhouser 6.71 183.2 1942 21 114 103 2.45 161 4
Tom Gordon 6.74 163.0 1989 21 86 153 3.64 107 10 .616 74
Wally Bunker 6.77 214.0 1964 19 62 96 2.69 133 17 .595 70
Joe Engel 6.78 164.2 1913 20 85 70 3.06 97 2
Smoky Joe Wood 6.78 160.2 1909 19 43 88 2.18 114 1
Walter Johnson 6.81 256.1 1908 20 53 160 1.65 139 0
Babe Ruth 6.86 217.2 1915 20 85 112 2.44 114 3
Bob Feller 6.88 320.1 1940 21 118 261 2.61 161 13
Bob Feller 6.89 296.2 1939 20 142 246 2.85 154 13
Jim Shaw 6.93 257.0 1914 20 137 164 2.70 104 3
Gary Bell 6.97 182.0 1958 21 73 110 3.31 111 18 .626 73
Jim Scott 6.97 250.1 1909 21 93 135 2.30 102 0
Player H/9 IP Year Age BB SO ERA ERA+ HR OPS OPS+
Dennis Eckersley 7.00 199.1 1976 21 78 200 3.43 101 13 .604 78
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 2/16/2010.
I don't know about you but when you just had a season in which your hits allowed per nine innings was the 2nd best in history of baseball for the age of 21, I rather concentrate on his future then on his possible decline.
Isn't it cool to see Babe Ruth on this list. I mean come on Babe Ruth. All he did was have the longest scoreless inning streak in the World Series for about fifty years. Oh yeah, he also hit a few home runs. A few other HOF on that list by the way like Bob Feller, Hal Newhouser, Big Train Walter Johnson, and Dennis Eckersley. Smokey Joe Wood is also on that list, check out his age 22 year old season. Sure Gary Nolan and Wayne Simpson blew their arms out. Thank God, since they were a big part of the Big Red machine that luckly lost some parts.
I'm amazed at how few left handers are on that list. They do tend to take longer but if Clayton can be Vida Blue I think we'd be quite happy. 312 innings at age 21 so while Vida never again accomplished what he did at age 21, don't you think those innings kind of mitigate what happened to him?
Now let us take a look at pitchers who have had a K Rate over 9.0, age 21 or younger.
Player SO/9 IP Year Age H BB SO ERA ERA+ HR OPS OPS+
Kerry Wood 12.58 166.2 1998 21 117 85 233 3.40 128 14 .626 68
Dwight Gooden 11.39 218.0 1984 19 161 73 276 2.60 137 7 .545 59
Rick Ankiel 9.98 175.0 2000 20 137 90 194 3.50 134 21 .685 76
Clayton Kershaw 9.74 171.0 2009 21 119 91 185 2.79 141 7 .588 63
Tom Griffin 9.56 188.1 1969 21 156 93 200 3.54 100 19 .660 94
Frank Tanana 9.41 257.1 1975 21 211 73 269 2.62 134 21 .615 79
Dave Boswell 9.19 169.1 1966 21 120 65 173 3.14 115 19 .612 75
Sam McDowell 9.19 173.1 1964 21 148 100 177 2.70 133 8 .639 86
Dennis Eckersley 9.03 199.1 1976 21 155 78 200 3.43 101 13 .604 78
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 2/16/2010.
Only three left handers on that list, and one of them is the man I'm really interested in. When I said I'd never seen a Dodger pitcher like Clayton Kershaw at the age of 21 I meant exactly that. However I did see a pitcher who Clayton Kershaw reminded me of, and sure enough there he is two names below Claytons. Frank Tanana was the best young left handed pitcher I've ever seen until I saw Clayton Kershaw pitch on April 16th, 2009 the most dominant game I'd ever seen at Dodger Stadium. For those of you who don't have a clue who Frank Tanana is take a moment to look at his major league numbers. Notice the gross amount of innings from age 20 - 24. Right there you'd say this man was one of the most overworked arms in the history of baseball. That was nothing, take a look at his minor league numbers, 349 minor league innings by the age of 19. No wonder his arm exploded at the age of 24 but until that arm blew up Frank had a curve and fastball that was the envy of anyone not named Nolan Ryan. Only because he was the teammate of Nolan Ryan did he not get the notoriety he deserved. He was better then Nolan in just about everything except for keeping that shoulder together after throwing 1670 professional innings by the age of 24. 1670 professional innings. It is a mind boggling number. What is great about Frank Tanana is that he was one of the dominant pitchers of his day and then his arm was gone but his pitching skills weren't. After his arm blew up he came back to pitch another 14 years as a Jamie Moyer type amassing 2700 strike outs
As far as I'm concerned Clayton Kershaw is Frank Tanana without the arm usage. Clayton Kershaw is not going to decline, Clayton is going to soar, and he is the biggest reason to be happy about being a Dodger fan for the next four years.
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Now that’s the kind of spring training article i enjoy!! David Cameron, this is a commentator i will never bother to read! and i’m surprised Jon Weisman didnt tear his head off or worse. Maybe the false sense of security thing, getem when they least expect it…
I would never expect Jon
to tear anyone’s head off, that is not his style no matter how much he might disagree with a column, even a Plashcke one.
David Cameron is an excellent writer and has been for years for Fangraphs and his Mariner blog. I was even unware he’d gone behind the ESPN pay wall until this story showed up.
I have no issue with what David was trying to accomplish, my issue was with the headline. From what I gather of the content something like “Dodger fans may have already seen the best of Clayton Kershaw” or “Don’t make room on Kershaw’s mantle for those Cy Young’s just yet” but his title suggests he has information that might show a decline in skills which was offensive to me.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
The title of it (which is most of what I was able to read, lol) was what made me the most mad. He could have used a number of different titles, not one suggest that a pitcher 2 years in the league is in a decline at (almost) age 22. Almost any other title would have been better. The way the title is worded, it almost feels like he’s fishing for responses.
Great read for my 5 am break.
I can’t wait for the start of the season. It’s going to be great.
by Skunkburner on Feb 17, 2010 4:50 AM PST via mobile reply actions
If the Dodgers said
we’re pretty sure that CK is going to decline. We’ve decided to trade him and we’d like a good return for him but nothing outrageous, the resulting scrum from every GM in MLB would be brutal.
How sad is it that its insider’s only on ESPN.
If, for whatever reason, Kershaw was said to be on the block, insane offers would come out of the wood work. Honestly I think Kershaw would be nearly as valuable as Lincecum right now. Obviously they aren’t on the same level right now, but Kershaw is much cheaper for the time being, which is why I would make such a claim. Also, we all know Lincecum is headed for 20+ million a year after 2011, and the Dodgers have the luxury of Kershaw not having 2 Cy Youngs to bring to the arbitration hearings, lol.
Yes
I’d like to see a story with that headline “Is Clayton Kershaw the most valuable property in baseball?” Because I think it might be true based on possible future production and his contract status.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Feb 17, 2010 10:58 AM PST up reply actions
Fangraphs.com had a list last summer of the 50 most valuable trade pieces in baseball, with the top 3 being Hanley, Longoria, and Pujols. With a year passing and players getting better or worse, that has changed and I don’t think Pujols would be top 3 anymore, though his stats would put him at 1 alone if he wasn’t making 32 million the next 2 seasons.
I’d really like to see an updated list of this, because at the time I believe Billingsley was 28 and Kershaw was 29. After the 2nd half of the season, I’d imagine Billingsley would drop down to somewhere in the 40s (I would put him in the mid 30s my self) and Kershaw SHOULD be propelled somewhere in the low teens. Another year like last year and I wouldn’t hesitate at all to place him in the top 10.
It’s been such a long time since the Dodgers have had such a great young pitcher, so I’m not sure how Free Agency will play out with Kershaw and the Dodgers. The last pitcher with his talent was traded before the talent was fully realized and we ended up with a worse Juan Pierre at second base. Since the Dodgers are a big budget team, I really can’t fathom Kershaw being traded the year before he hits the FA market for prospects for a few reasons.
1. News Corp doesn’t own the Dodgers anymore, and current ownership should realize it could destroy fan relations to trade one of the best players in baseball rather than give them the money they deserve (I’m not sure I’ll ever get over the Piazza trade, lol).
2. If there is anything that this team has always valued it is pitching. I’ve got to think they will do everything they can to keep Kershaw till he is at least 30.
3. I am very hopeful that Kershaw will be given a huge extension some time after the 2010 or 2011 season. I’d rather see it sooner than later; that risk is worth it in this case to me.
I am just so excited for his future, and it needs to be April like yesterday.
when you want informed dodger discussion
look no further than an “espn insider and seattle blogger”
the only sports fans I know who watch espn anymore for anything other than live games – are morons
(no offense to anybody here who enjoys espn – but you are cohorting with morons and you should stop :)
by lchristmas on Feb 17, 2010 7:04 AM PST via mobile reply actions
I did not forget I was a Dodger blogger
And I didn’t tear his head off before I read the story because ripping someone when you haven’t read their article would be pretty low.
I didn’t tear his head off after I read the story because he didn’t write anything wrong, much less offensive. I’m sky-high on Kershaw, and I found the article useful as a reminder that you can’t count on a pitcher of his age just to keep improving year after year.
Hypothetically, if you made logical arguments, concluded there was a possibility something would happen, and got ripped simply because your fans didn’t like your truth – or worse, got ripped even if fans didn’t read what you wrote, wouldn’t you find that disturbing?
Did Phil write this or sarcastro? :)
I’m not sure why Cameron chose 180 strikeouts as his cutoff, and the title was probably ill-advised, but the general tone of the article was fine, which to me was just to temper your expectations. That seems reasonable to me.
My feeling of 2010 Kershaw is that he will improve as a pitcher, and his peripherals will show progress and improvement across the board, but he will have a higher ERA.
He probably chose 180 so that he could include Kershaw and Valenzuela. Would it have made a big difference if he had chosen 170? Or 162?
I don’t see what’s wrong with the title. Based on what he wrote, it’s a legitimate question.
Is it?
In Decline? I don’t see how that is a legitimate question on Feb 17th, 2010.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
I found the title misleading and it bothered me
I’d read the article but then I’d have to comment on an article that 95% of my readers are unable to read. So I left my criticism for the title which I thought I was quite clear on.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
Okay, we’re at an agree-to-disagree point, so I’ll just say one more thing and then drop it. You can have the last word.
It’s not a misleading headline. It’s a legitimate headline. He talks about how pitchers start to lose their fastball at a young age, then questions whether a pitcher like Kershaw will have the secondary skills to make it up. Given Kershaw’s control problems, it’s a legitimate question. I happen to think Kershaw will make it, but there’s certainly a counter-argument.
This isn’t Plaschke we’re talking about. This is a writer with a good, solid reputation and no axe to grind. Your beef seems to have nothing to do with the evidence he presents. That’s kind of scary to me. It’s more like, “How dare the headline of a story even suggest something negative about a player I like, regardless of his arguments?” Do you want your writing to be held to that standard, where the writing isn’t debated on its merits?
Hmmm
So headlines like
“Are Jon Weisman’s skills declining”
" Did Weisman leave something behind when he popped the toaster’
“Jon Weisman dumps LA Times for ESPN”
wouldn’t make you shake your head if you were unable to read the content of what the author had to say?
Titles are important when the content is not viewable by the majority. That is my opinon, I’ll stick to that. I tried to only show my disdain for the title not the content. Maybe that is wrong, but I have to say on this issue, that yes we disagree. I don’t think that puts me at the level of your last paragraph but if it does, then it is what it is. A thin skinned Dodger fan taking offense at a title that on the surface appears to be taking a shot at my favorite Dodger but since I can’t read the content, I’m okay with writing what I thought of the title.
I
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Feb 17, 2010 10:31 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
yeah, I was really taken aback by Jon's being taken aback
If anything, he usually seems to err on the side of getting too annoyed with writers or fans who make the “con” argument against the Dodgers. I read the article, and I found it fairly reasonable, outside of focusing on Kershaw, of all people. Reasonable people can disagree. But I can’t believe that ANYONE, let alone someone as thoughtful and pro-Dodger as Jon, could have no problem with such a loaded title! It was on par with some of the most loaded political titles you’ll ever see on your favorite news channel, be it MSNBC, Fox News, or any of the others.
It was a poorly worded title
and used as an obvious attention grabber in order to gain eye balls and get people talking about it. A great marketing ploy by Dave C and ESPN, as eye balls = money.
If Dave wanted to write up an article about the pitfalls that many young pitchers face and how many who start off very young and very good flame out then that is fine. If he wants to use Kershaw as an example in his article that is fine too. But to give the article such an illogical and unfair title doesn’t settle too well with a lot of people. First off, doesn’t someone have to be showing signs of a downward trend (talent/results wise) to ask the question “are they declining?”.
I mean if the stock market goes up 10 days in a row, does it make sense to title an article “Is the Stock Market Declining?”. Well, obviously it isn’t – but I suppose it could in the future.
vr, Xei
Thanks
Sometimes I don’t mind being on an island but not against someone I have such respect for. After his last comment I revisited how I felt and it didn’t change. You summed up how I felt about the title.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
The title was clearly titillating and incorrectly conjugated to the present-progressive (“already declining” – puh-leez), as Xeifrank points out. I did have to wonder if Dave Cameron wrote it himself, or if an editor provided that, as happens in newspapers and magazines all the time.
On the other hand, I’m glad it got you, Phil, to get some other statistical comparisons for Kershaw listed here. I, for one, am eager to see him pitch in 2010, and hopeful to see more great performances.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
I'm trying to keep my word not to comment further
… but it sure is hard, when I’m the one who let this go 12 hours ago, and others keep marching on, and I’m the one whose accused of digging his heels in.
If nothing else, this will make a fascinating topic for some sociology class someday!
We all want to move on, but we all have “one more thing” to respond to the other person’s “one more thing”. I think I finally understand what happened with Vietnam!
Ok, I will really try to make this the last thing, but no promises, since I don’t know what people are gonna say next…Jon, I meant digging your heels in that you don’t seem to be giving ANY benefit of the doubt to those of us who were bothered by it. Like I’ve said since the beginning of this whole thing, the MAIN problem for me was the headline. But I think in the heat of the discussion, this whole thing kind of turned into a “Who’s on first” thing, only a little bit less funny. We all got mixed up about what was so offensive. But since it was NOT Cameron who wrote the title, that means it WAS some ESPN editor disrespecting the Dodgers…which brings us back to DOE…
Anyway, it’s fine. Whatever. Kershaw’s been great, and I expect a long, prosperous pitcher career, so long as he stays away from shagging. Let the editors write whatever headlines they want. I bet he’ll be getting respect from the masses soon enough. Again, though, no shagging.
Over…Out…Post…Scene…The End…?
You seem to be defending the title too much. There is definitely a problem with the title. The question was asked if Kershaw was declining. How would he be declining when he just pitched his second season in the MLB and did very good. It literally does not make sense to ask if Kershaw is declining. A better question would be something like “Can Kershaw hold up to the expectations he’s made for himself at such a young age?”, or something to that effect.
by Ivdown on Feb 17, 2010 11:24 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
I think his writing is sometimes awful. The ax he’s grinding is his bank account.
by Salty on Feb 17, 2010 11:29 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
ok, ONE more point (maybe two)
The line, “This isn’t Plaschke we’re talking about. This is a writer with a good, solid reputation and no axe to grind” seems to suggest that we should not have a problem with this based on who the writer is, instead of what was WRITTEN. In fact, one gets the sense from that statement that if Plaschke had the same title, you WOULD have a problem with it. Why not hold someone you DO like to the same standard? A mistake is a mistake.
And saying to Phil, “Your beef seems to have nothing to do with the evidence he presents. That’s kind of scary to me.” Wow. You’re in danger of breaking at least one of your own rules here. “Kind of scary”?! He was pointing out- correctly- that the title is misleading. Even the article ITSELF, with its disproportionate focus on Kershaw, does not suggest he IS breaking down- just that he may be in danger of it. I can’t even counter why I don’t think you should find that scary, as I don’t know what can motivate you to write that in the first place.
I don’t want to speak for Jon, but he sounded concerned over Phil criticizing the article without reading it, which is certainly valid. Even though as Phil stated he had a problem with the title, which is also valid, but perhaps the criticism could have had more context had he read the article.
by Eric Stephen on Feb 17, 2010 8:07 PM PST up reply actions
E-mail from Dave Cameron
" I joined True Blue LA to try to answer some questions about the Kershaw article, but they have a waiting
period, so I can’t post this. Can you relay to your fellow Dodger fans one point – I didn’t write the headline. People need to stop getting worked up over headlines. They’re almost never written by the writers, and are just tools of the editors to drive traffic."
I will say that I write my own headlines on Dodger Thoughts – that’s more typical for blogs, but Dave of course is right – for articles, it’s almost always an editor who writes the headline.
Yes, the title is misleading
Instead of “declining”, the title should’ve read “regressing”. Declining (atleast to me) makes it sound like his true talent level is getting worse. Regressing to me means that he probably overshot his true talent level in the previous season due to a little bit of luck. So yes, in my opinion the title is very misleading. Dave Cameron of all people should know the difference between those two terms. I didn’t read the article, but from the sounds of it, the article was mistitled. Of course, a little hyperbole for your title may get more eyeballs.
vr, Xei
Regarding Kershaw
we all know he was lucky last year related to his home run rate. We have written many times this year that Clayton may actually pitch better in 2010 and yet show a decline in his ERA which some might point out as a decline but we’d know it was simply a normalization of his home run rate. I expect several times this summer someone will ask what is wrong with Kershaw when the answer will simply be, he’s the same pitcher he was last summer.
Just like Cole Hamels in 2009 was very much the same pitcher in 2008 but the perception is that Hamels struggled in 2009.
Anyway 80% of the column is about how amazing his 21 year old season was historically. I didn’t use cutoffs other then 150 IP because I like see Kershaw on that list of amazing pitchers. Many of them did have arm injuries and yes many of them never did again reach those heights, but with Clayton I’ll focus on those that did continue to master the ability to stay healthy and dominate for several more years.
What is really irritating to me, is that Frank Tanana was bloody awesome, truly a special pitcher at his age, and I always get irritated when I see how the Angels just slagged him.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
Yeah
Also, if you look at Gooden, who was probably as good as it gets at 19-21, I don’t think Clayton has to worry about hitting the Gooden wall because:
a) as far as I know, Clayton stays away from nose candy
b) Gooden had about 500 more innings on his arm at Clayton’s age
by Eric Stephen on Feb 17, 2010 8:38 AM PST up reply actions
I never knew much about Tanana (I'm too young I guess)
but the meaningful stats from his age 21 and 22 seasons look like a closers!
He was incredible
blazing fastball, great curveball, many of the other comps from the h/9 inning group simply didn’t have dominating stuff like Tanana had. I used the Cameron piece as a springboard but I’d like the readers to understand that Kershaw can be Tanana without the slagging of the arm. By age 24 you can already see that Tanana arm’s was failing but he still was effective until he couldn’t deal with the pain anymore and had to have the surgery.
We can criticize the Dodgers on many fronts but I think they have handled Kershaw as well as can be expected. It is hard to hold back a talent like his while weighing the risks of overuse against the benefits of having him in the rotation on a full time basis. Ever since I first saw him pitch, he has reminded me of Tanana, I hope he lives up to it, but those are big boats to fill. Frank would be number one on most underappreciated pitcher of the 1970’s.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
I think Kershaw’s 2010 ceiling is Francisco Liriano from 2006 (minus the elbow issues). High expectations, but that should be expected from one of his biggest fans.
Liriano
Top five pivotal players of 2010?
1. Liriano
2. Josh Hamilton
3. Jose Reyes
4. ?
5. Aubrey Huff ;)
I’d put both Brandon Webb and Jeff Francis in there. How they come back from injury will have a big impact on those teams.
Webb for sure
Manny – we have no valid LF backup if he does not perform
Peavy – WS need him to be Peavish for them to have a shot
Beltran? – can the Mets compete without him at 100%
Wright – was his missing power simply a one year fluke
Halladay – can he go 30 – 0 in the NL as Mathew suggests
Holliday – how many balls can he take off his balls before it starts to have an adverse effect on his production
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Feb 17, 2010 11:29 AM PST up reply actions
Not really
other then Reyes/Wright/Beltran/Santana the team would be compete for the Nat’s for last place.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Feb 17, 2010 11:45 AM PST up reply actions
One thing that does not get mentioned in Cameron's article
Is that the two best pitchers, Gooden and Valenzuela pitchd over 900 innings from age 19-22 (one year in minors and 3 regular seasons). Gooden never really recovered after that, Fernando continued to pile on what would now be considered an almost unthiinkable amount for another few years.
Kershaw has a little over 400 professional innings in the tank so he has a ways to go to reach those numbers.
Clayton has been handled with kid gloves
compared to many of the pitchers on these lists. If he had been pitching in 70’s and 80’s, he surely would have been on the path to destruction. Felix Hernandez sure stands out like a sore thumb here. Gary Nolan and Larry Dierker will watch his progress with interest.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Feb 17, 2010 10:39 AM PST up reply actions
Amazing group of pitchers with at least 600 K’s by age 23, and 750 innings.
Player SO IP From To Age ERA ERA+
Bob Feller 1233 1448.1 1936 1941 17-22 3.18 136
Bert Blyleven 1094 1335.2 1970 1974 19-23 2.74 134
Dwight Gooden 1067 1172.2 1984 1988 19-23 2.62 134
Frank Tanana 937 1082.0 1973 1977 19-23 2.69 131
Walter Johnson 915 1355.1 1907 1911 19-23 1.77 148
Larry Dierker 874 1250.1 1964 1970 17-23 3.19 108
Sam McDowell 865 799.2 1961 1966 18-23 3.08 115
Christy Mathewson 864 1354.2 1901 1904 20-23 2.21 138
Smoky Joe Wood 856 1145.1 1908 1913 18-23 2.00 151
Fernando Valenzue 824 1013.0 1980 1984 19-23 3.01 116
Don Drysdale 822 1071.1 1956 1960 19-23 3.21 128
Felix Hernandez 810 905.0 2005 2009 19-23 3.45 125
Gary Nolan 727 980.2 1967 1971 19-23 2.98 123
Dennis Eckersley 705 901.2 1975 1978 20-23 3.15 122
Catfish Hunter 703 1050.1 1965 1969 19-23 3.44 94
Chief Bender 689 1160.1 1903 1907 19-23 2.68 102
Mike McCormick 646 1087.0 1956 1962 17-23 3.78 99
Denny McLain 637 840.2 1963 1967 19-23 3.57 97
Hal Newhouser 633 1003.0 1939 1944 18-23 3.23 122
Vida Blue 629 807.1 1969 1973 19-23 2.74 122
Don Gullett 615 901.1 1970 1974 19-23 3.15 109
CC Sabathia 600 776.0 2001 2004 20-23 4.12 107
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 2/17/2010.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
This next list is even more fun
Most K’s by age 21. I like it because Babe Ruth and Clayton Kershaw are right next to each other.
Player SO IP From To Age ERA ERA+
Bob Feller 973 1105.1 1936 1940 17-21 3.19 140
Dwight Gooden 744 744.2 1984 1986 19-21 2.28 155
Bert Blyleven 587 729.2 1970 1972 19-21 2.86 121
Smoky Joe Wood 475 655.2 1908 1911 18-21 1.98 143
Frank Tanana 471 552.1 1973 1975 19-21 2.88 120
Larry Dierker 451 675.1 1964 1968 17-21 3.31 97
Mike McCormick 441 738.1 1956 1960 17-21 3.75 99
Pete Schneider 425 1028.0 1914 1917 18-21 2.46 110
Felix Hernandez 418 465.2 2005 2007 19-21 3.94 111
Chief Bender 418 702.2 1903 1905 19-21 2.93 96
Gary Nolan 400 485.1 1967 1969 19-21 2.74 131
Fernando Valenzue 395 495.0 1980 1982 19-21 2.62 132
Walter Johnson 395 663.0 1907 1909 19-21 1.94 122
Christy Mathewson 385 620.2 1901 1902 20-21 2.28 136
Catfish Hunter 381 569.1 1965 1967 19-21 3.53 94
Vida Blue 360 392.2 1969 1971 19-21 2.36 144
Dennis Eckersley 352 386.0 1975 1976 20-21 3.03 119
Don Drysdale 334 531.2 1956 1958 19-21 3.27 126
Curt Simmons 324 525.0 1947 1950 18-21 4.13 97
Milt Pappas 321 559.1 1957 1960 18-21 3.46 108
CC Sabathia 320 390.1 2001 2002 20-21 4.38 101
Sam McDowell 315 332.1 1961 1964 18-21 3.95 93
Billy McCool 311 300.0 1964 1966 19-21 3.09 122
Hal Newhouser 302 495.0 1939 1942 18-21 3.95 111
Bob Moose 298 355.1 1967 1969 19-21 2.86 112
Player SO IP From To Age ERA ERA+
Dick Drott 297 396.1 1957 1958 20-21 4.36 89
Earl Hamilton 295 644.0 1911 1913 19-21 3.21 100
Jose Rijo 288 319.2 1984 1986 19-21 4.45 86
Clayton Kershaw 285 278.2 2008 2009 20-21 3.36 120
Babe Ruth 285 564.1 1914 1916 19-21 2.11 132
Denny McLain 284 341.1 1963 1965 19-21 3.14 113
Dave Boswell 283 298.2 1964 1966 19-21 3.31 108
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 2/17/2010.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
Yes
and at age 21 he may have been the best 21 year old pitcher ever.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Feb 17, 2010 10:33 AM PST up reply actions
Vida Blue was awesome.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
by David Young on Feb 17, 2010 12:55 PM PST up reply actions
Just from a glance...
It looks like Kershaw has to be near the top in terms of K/9
I thought I covered that
in my column. 4th best through age 21 in history.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Feb 17, 2010 10:47 AM PST up reply actions
ericdstephen (2/16/2010 at 7:31 PM)
Report Violation
Next article on Insider: “Will Your Children Be Kidnapped?”
Lmao!
Decline?
LOL for me, he is just getting started.
Phil please write the Chone Figgins
article, and post links to it on both USSM and LL. Show them that real bloggers don’t hide behind Pay Walls.
vr, Xei
Real bloggers that want to get paid
Do that.
by bhsportsguy on Feb 17, 2010 10:52 AM PST up reply actions
Cameron
I enjoy Cameron’s writing, but he really is the Soup Nazi of the sports blogging world. Personally, I find it entertaining. (But I also don’t have a horse in the sabercommunity race—I just enjoy the view from the cheap seats.)
Lol, that actually works really well. My friend is a Mariners fan and he says that Dave gets into with posters every so often and hilarity ensues.
Mariners Blogs = Facism
and that was some nice hyperbole – but it sure felt good sayin so. :)
vr, Xei
For those who don’t have access to the Cameron article, Kensai breaks down the jaw dropping news that young pitchers are not Berkshire Hathaway stock. Who knew, evidently not those who pay for such gems of information that ESPN Insider provides.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
Say What?
I read the article yesterday. Yes, I receive the ESPN magazine and get the insider deal for free.
I didn’t appreciate the title either but as I do to most negative trending articles about the Dodgers… I dismissed it. I think we all know that any team is just an injury or two away from last place. We know the physical strain on the body that pitching and playing can cause to an All-Star and make them fall into a disappointment within weeks.
Both Phil and Jon have good points. Emotional? “yes” But why not? Aren’t fans emotional? Why else would we be fans? HOW else could we be fans? Though I have no financial investment in the Dodgers, what I do have invested is my emotional attachment.
Though the current manager holds his emotions in check, we still hear, feel and see the emotions of a certain past manager that held the team in emotional sways for 20 years. An “Ambassador” of emotion.
We could just be fair-weather fans and wear our “insert your #1 team here” jackets that are always on sale at the local WalMart. But we read the papers, magazines, surf the blogs, talk to fellow Blue friends and hold onto any hopes we can muster of another post-season year. An emotional state to say the least! I want our players to be the best and perform the best. When something interferes with that, for ME, my emotions are invoked.
So yes, I’ll read and watch the negative hype about the Dodgers and how we are in a tougher division in 2010 and how the Rockies are locked into first and blah blah blah. But then, I’ll file that information in the appropriate “file”, buy my tickets, tune into Vin or search TrueBlueLA for gems of hope and repeat “Go Dodgers!”
by RawhideBlue on Feb 17, 2010 11:20 AM PST reply actions 3 recs
I have rec’ed this. Very nicely written.
by Ivdown on Feb 17, 2010 11:41 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
I rec'ed your post
because I was too lazy to read RawhideBlue’s and I will take your word for it that it was worth the Rec.
vr, Xei
by Xeifrank on Feb 17, 2010 12:09 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
I like the way you work, and that Rec was well deserved on my part :)
by Ivdown on Feb 17, 2010 12:10 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
BA Prospect Handbook
Just got notice that mine has been shipped…can’t wait! This will be the fourth one I’ve purchased (since 2007).
I got some old ones last year via eBay. I can’t remember if I have them back to 2002 or 2003. It’s fun to look back.
by Eric Stephen on Feb 17, 2010 11:36 AM PST up reply actions
Yea I agree
I don’t have any old BA handbooks, but I really like reading Sickels’ old prospect posts that are archived and/or his prospect retrospective posts.
I asked John Sickels on minorleagueball.com about Withrow
Chris Withrow
What would you say his ceiling in the MLB is, and where he might be on the 2011 Top 100 Prospects list?
by Ivdown on Feb 5, 2010 11:20 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
withrow
Well Withrow is already highly-rated, he’s number 12 on my pitching prospect list. He could get into the top ten next year if he continues to develop. He has borderline number one/strong number two potential, though whether he reaches that or not is of course uncertain. But that’s the ceiling we’re talking about.
by John Sickels on Feb 6, 2010 9:43 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Tanana, Ryan, and two days of cryin'
When Nolan Ryan, in his current role, talks about pitchers needing to be trained to have better endurance, I wonder if anyone asks him about his former teammate Tanana and how his arm fell off, despite logging lots of pitching at all levels from an early age.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
BHSportsGuy put up a FanShot about Jim Tracy still whining about 2005.
http://www.truebluela.com/2010/2/17/1314566/dont-cry-for-me-paul-loduca
Laughing through the tears Pt. 873
From new www.fangraphs.com article on Edwin Jackson:
“Jackson is interesting. He was born in (then-West) Germany, was a top pitching prospect with the Dodgers, got traded to Tampa Bay for a couple middle relievers, then the Rays moved him for Matt Joyce after Jackson’s seemingly good 2009.”
We don’t really come out smelling like a rose . . .
I’ll bet Baez’s name gets brought up by agents every time a Brandon Lyon signs a multiyear contract.
or every time Danys Baez himself signs a multi-year contract! :)
by Eric Stephen on Feb 17, 2010 1:59 PM PST up reply actions
It is still likely that
being traded when he was turned out to be the best thing for Jackson since he probably doesn’t get the starts he got in Tampa Bay in 2007 if he is still with LA.
Also, he has been dealt now 3 times in 4 years (albeit the last deal with AZ appears to be the most equal).
A veritable spectrum of stupidity . . .
That is going to be used some day, where should I send the check?
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
Ned Colletti on XM Radio- More Kershaw and more Wang
Who doesn’t get tired of hearing Ned’s voice? Standard offseason rhetoric but amusing comments on Wang in the parking lot.
Some comments from Ned that I liked as they are approriate today, “Need Kershaw to step it up a little bit!”
Holy crap! Hasn’t he heard Clayton’s in decline!
And just for fun he said, “Need to see more (Wang).” Discuss amongst yourselves…
Interview from XM Radio’s Power Alley w/ Seth Everett and Jim Duquette 2/16/10.
Clarification
Felix isn’t one of the 11 pitchers with a 180 K season by age 22, but Cameron does mention Felix, along with Tim Lincecum and Scott Kazmir as well. Regarding Felix, Cameron noted that both he and Lincecum lost 2 MPH off their fastball since they arrived in the big leagues.
by Eric Stephen on Feb 17, 2010 4:57 PM PST up reply actions
So is there a study that says young pitchers quickly “lose” speed off their fastball, or do some, as they gain experience, consciously dial it down a little to pace themselves for an entire season – or seasons. Or arrive at an optimal balance of speed and command – if I take just a little off, I hit all my spots.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
I agree
It’s hard to claim a problem — Lincecum and Felix losing 2 MPH off their fastball — when they have in fact improved and in 2009 had two of the best pitching seasons in recent memory.
Cameron had the quote “Throwing hard is a young man’s game, and one that is very hard to sustain as the workload piles up,” but you are right, throwing hard may not mean a decline.
by Eric Stephen on Feb 17, 2010 8:10 PM PST up reply actions
Evidently not
Gary Nolan and Larry Dierker would caution him but they no longer have right arms to write with.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
3-way NBA trade
From Adrian Wojnarowski:
Cavs get Jamison and Telfair, Clippers get Drew Gooden and Wash gets Illgauskas, Al Thornton and Brian Skinner and Cavs 1st round pick
Ha Ha
Sometimes I love being right. Don’t care about the trade, just that I knew another one was going to be made. I must now make my way over to ClipperNation and ask Madglove “What’s UP”
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
I didn’t see a spot for draft picks on ESPN’s trade machine, but this trade failed using that tool. :)
(It said Gooden couldn’t be traded with another player)
by Eric Stephen on Feb 17, 2010 3:58 PM PST up reply actions
Kevin Pelton of Basketball Prospectus likes the deal from the Clippers’ side:
So it’s not the exciting part of the deal, but the Clippers are huge winners here. Dumped $5.5M for 2010-11 w/o sacrificing anything
by Eric Stephen on Feb 17, 2010 4:02 PM PST up reply actions
Now I dont mind articles that question how good a player will be
But to make an argument that he will fall off a cliff because others have isnt a good one. If you can back it up with actual stats, ok. But he cant. And as you pointed out, he was one of the best lefties at 21 EVER. To think he has peaked when his control is still poor is amazing
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Feb 17, 2010 6:47 PM PST reply actions
First off
My appreciate to Jon for passing along my note, and for being the voice of reason in general. You guys are lucky to have him.
Second off, getting upset at a writer over a headline is like getting mat at an Olympian for how NBC is covering the games. We don’t write our own headlines. We have no say in what they are. The goal of the editing staff in writing a headline is to get traffic, not to accurately represent the article. Don’t get worked up over headlines. It’s not worth it.
Thirdly, I’m a big Kershaw fan. The opening paragraph was written in a way that was supposed to convey the reasons why he’s obviously such a highly talented pitcher. I was asked in an interview today for two players who I think could have a big 2010, and Kershaw was one of the two I named. This piece was not written as an anti-Kershaw article.
Lastly, when you read a piece in the mainstream, you need to adjust your expectations for what will be presented. I would have loved to have written 5,000 words on the subject of pitcher aging curves, complete with full historical data, tables, charts, correlations, and projections, but ESPN’s not publishing that piece. There are significant restraints that come along with writing for ESPN or the Wall Street Journal that do not exist at FanGraphs. So, if we write something that doesn’t cover in depth regression, try to give us the benefit of the doubt that we did the best we could, given what we’re able to do for a mass audience.
Thanks for stopping by
It was mentioned in the comments as a possibility that you weren’t the person who coined the title. The title was very un-Dave Cameron like, and your explanation helps alleviate any problem that I had.
vr, Xei
Thanks
for taking the time to comment here.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
Thanks for the comment
We have to get excited over something while we wait for Spring Training to start.
Is it irony that I can get more for free by reading fangraphs.com, than I can get by paying for mainstream pieces on ESPN Insider?
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
Well, the title certainly was the problem
In all the mayhem, many of us unfairly attributed it to you. Sorry about that! Still, though the discussion got out of hand, it still seems perfectly fair to get worked up about the title. I mean, that’s what the masses see first, right? Maybe we shouldn’t spend so much energy on it, but you can say that about anything- some people in the outside world are even crazy enough to suggest we shouldn’t spend so much energy on baseball itself!
Interesting
anyway.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Feb 18, 2010 11:41 AM PST up reply actions
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| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
San Diego
|
79 | 59 | .572 | 0 | Won 3 |
|
San Francisco
|
78 | 62 | .557 | 2 | Lost 1 |
|
Colorado
|
75 | 64 | .539 | 4.5 | Won 6 |
|
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69 | 71 | .492 | 11 | Lost 5 |
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Arizona
|
57 | 83 | .407 | 23 | Won 1 |
(updated 9.8.2010 at 10:10 PM PDT)
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