DiamondView 2.010 Looks At The Dodgers
Over at Beyond The Boxscore, Justin Bopp has harnessed his powers for good rather than evil, with a look to the 2010 offensive starters of the Dodgers (including Blake DeWitt at 2B, which would be a welcome surprise). Combining power, on base, baserunning, and defense, DiamondView provides a unique graphical view of player skills. Just looking at Matt Kemp's DiamondView gets me excited for 2010. I added some commentary for each player.
If you aren't reading Beyond The Boxscore everyday, you are missing out.
about 2 years ago
Eric Stephen
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I remember their being tons of smart commenters
arguing for giving Manny 4/100
by Michael White on Feb 5, 2010 10:53 AM PST up reply actions
I don't think I was among them...
IIRC, I think I suggested 4/80 or 4/75 or something like that. Really, though, while 4/100 would be clearly overpaying, it would not be by that much (by apx 1 – 1.5 wins/year) so as to make the contract an “albatross.” My guess is, though I would have (correctly) said at the time the contract is paying too much, the Dodgers will not likely have a better option for 2011 and 12 (though they will obviously have cheaper options).
My guess is that instead of paying (assuming the 4/100) $25M for 3-4 wins, the Dodgers will instead pay $400K for 0-1 Win in 2011. The question will then be what they do with that “extra” $24.5M. There will be good things to do with it – almost certainly things worth more than 3-4 Wins. We’ll see what happens, though.
with so much differed money
if manny had signed for 4/100 we would be paying him 10 mill a year until 2018 instead of 7 mil until 2013. Not sure how that equates to saving 24.5 mil to pay for others.
by MammothDodger on Feb 5, 2010 11:51 AM PST up reply actions
At the time, of course, there was no contract
so a 4/100 has to be evaluated as a 4/100, not as some more complicated procedure.
Also, the right way to evaluate any contract, ultimately, is to completely ignore the terms of the contract. You look at the total value of the contract and divide it by the playing length of the contract (after, if you wish, adjusting for the time value of money and possibly the expected aging). I don’t care at all if $100M is spread over 4 years or 15.
by Paul Scott on Feb 5, 2010 12:09 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
while this may be correct in a vaccum
with a debt laden owner about to go through a probably messy and possibly costly divorce the only way to evaluate payroll is how much cash is being put out in any given year. If Manny had signed a huge contrat for 4 years and the Dodgers had to pay it over ten it would have had a huge effect down the line
by MammothDodger on Feb 5, 2010 8:58 PM PST up reply actions
I was a 4/100 guy
I was thinking that coming off the end of 2008, and the huge fan support for him, it was probably the going rate for a legit superstar. This is further evidence of my inability to grasp or understand the economics of baseball.
The Baseball Prospectus Team Health Reports will be up soon, but a spreadsheet was released showing the status (red, yellow, green) of the projected depth charts of all 30 major league teams. All five Dodger starters listed (Top 4, plus McDonald) got “Red” status, meaning all are injury risks.
Jon Weisman interviewed Will Carroll about the Dodgers’ report. Lots of good stuff in there (though I thought the Matt Kemp comment was a throw-away line)
Thats pretty interesting that he uses a computerized model to come up with his analysis
and I can appreciate that, but as far as I am concerned, any player can get injured at any time. Guys can slip on ice in their driveway, get hit by a line drive, be young studs who don’t wear down, or be young studs that do… I just don’t think its something you can accurately predict, but maybe I’m wrong.
I’d be interested to see how accurate his health reports are in hindsight at the end of the year. Not just for the Dodgers, but in general.
I would be very interested
to see how his flags correlate to the season in question. I suspect that if they had been extremely accurate he would have been tooting his horn about his system. I guess we could simply analyze how the flags have worked in relation to the Dodgers.
Carroll
has always had an issue with the Dodgers pitchers – with Bills (and Brox, IIRC) particularly standing out. After two years of getting it wrong, he might have stumbled into getting Bills partially right last year (but not nearly to the extent he consistently claimed). It has gotten to the point where I just don’t believe anything Carroll says with regard to this issue. He has a bias that has proven to be misguided but for which he still cannot correct.
JW's interview is a good read
Carroll partially explains the flags. I don’t agree with either his system’s assessments or the way he draws the bins. If, as Carroll explains it, a red flag really does not correspond to that much risk, then you really need to adjust your outputs so they are more meaningful.
For instance, I saw the spreadsheet…53 of 150 starting pitchers are red (61 yellow, 36 green)…seems high.
by Eric Stephen on Feb 5, 2010 11:35 AM PST up reply actions
Yorvit Torrealba to the Padres
per Buster Olney:
The terms on Yorvit Torrealba’s deal with SD: One-year, $1.25 m. guaranteed. $750,000 base salary for ’10, $500,000 buyout on mutual option for 2011, which is for $3.5 million. He reportedly turned down a two-year, $4.5 million deal with the Rockies earlier in the winter
Would anyone like to see exteme pairity? I think I would. Just think, in any given year, a small market club like the Pirates or Royals could be winning world championships largely based on talent and a set salary structure for all 30 teams.
I totally enjoy
how basketball handles the cap/salary system. Makes for a lot of interesting analysis and makes people learn math skills.
Not that basketball has parity
but it seems that a great GM can really make a difference in the NBA.
The NBA salary cap is way too complicated and frustrating for me
And the NBA definitely has the least amount of parity of all sports. The “soft cap” system in the NBA allows teams to hold onto their stars (or have a negotiating advantage over other teams) so the Spurs win a half dozen championships thanks to hitting the draft lottery in a year when Robinson was injured.
The so-called great GM’s in the NBA haven’t accomplished too much (unless you include West drafting Kobe.) Houston, Portland and OKC (the teams who allegedly have genius GM’s) are still candidates (IMO) for either missing the playoffs (Houston) or first round exits (Portland and OKC.)
by Michael White on Feb 5, 2010 11:30 AM PST up reply actions
I rather like the fact
the drafting teams can actually hold onto their stars instead of watching them run off to other teams. As long as they are getting fairly compensated I’ll take the NBA soft cap over no cap at all. I do disagree with your assessment in general but that would take to much effort that I don’t have time for.
+1
The NBA’s cap system works against parity, rather than for it. It is mostly salary control for the benefit of the owners dressed up to look like it is serving the interests of the game.
His point about Matt Kemp made some sense to me.
Maybe not so much that Kemp is an injury risk, but his mentioning that Ethier has spent the winter working and working out compared to Kemp hanging out with celebrities kind of worries me. But hey, I guess sometimes getting laid and attention is an uncontrollable desire. Hearing about Ethier kicking ass in the off season makes me excited to see him play this year.
As I noted on Dodger Thoughts, I haven’t seen Ethier tweet all winter about how he is working out…Kemp has however, including video! :)
by Eric Stephen on Feb 5, 2010 11:36 AM PST up reply actions
I stand corrected.
I did not realize that Kemp was tweeting and putting up video on his work outs. I just hope the people who his girlfriend associates with aren’t pushing drugs, booze and too many late nights on Kemp. Maybe it is more a focus thing I am thinking about with Kemp.
More O-Dog news
from Rosenthal:
Sources #Indians were high bidder for O. Hudson – 2 yrs, 10M. However, deal was backloaded. Lots of $$$ in buyout of 3rd-yr. option
I don't get this comment
He signed with the Twins for $5/1. (which, btw, if that was the going rate, makes the Dodger’s 2B options look stupid – I guess he and Torre were not going to get along though…).
Not sure, but first year was probably $3m or so (just guessing), so O-Dog is betting he can make at least $5m in 2011 by having a good season in 2010. Also, Twins will probably be a better team than Cleveland, so there was probably some value in that as well.
by Eric Stephen on Feb 5, 2010 11:47 AM PST up reply actions
I see
I misread it. I thought Rosenthal was suggesting 2/10 + a large buyout for year three. Instead he is suggesting a contract worth a minimum of $10M for two years, which includes the value of the year 3 buyout.
Bill Ladson of MLB.com reported the Nats offer at $4m, with a chance to hit $5m total with incentives.
by Eric Stephen on Feb 5, 2010 11:50 AM PST up reply actions
Here’s a link to my favorite Super Bowl halftime performance ever (U2 in 2002), in case anyone was feeling a little footbally today.
The Who are going to be a great choice for a half-time show, and I wish I could watch, but I’ll be with my gf so I probly won’t.
Is anyone betting on the game? I put 25 bucks combined on Bodog.com. I decided against actually betting on the outcome of the game in terms of winning and losing, and placed 6 individual bets. I put a dollar on Matt Stover winning the Super Bowl MVP at 75-1, put 5 on Reggie Bush winning the SB MVP at 8-1, 5 on Colston at 12-1, 6 on Wayne at 10-1, 3 on Vilma at 40-1, and then 5 on the two teams combining to score between 76-80 points, and I can’t remember the spread.
Chances are I don’t win anything, but here is what I could win if I win anything:
$120
$75
$75
$60
$60
$40
Here’s hoping that at least Reggie Bush can have the game of his NFL life and make me 40 bucks :)
US in 2002
were great, but Prince is #1 for me. It was epic: http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x15048_superbowl-xli-halftime-show-starrin_music
The silhouetted Prince and his strategically placed guitar neck was hilarious.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
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