2010 Player Profiles - James Loney the Road Warrior
by Phil Gurnee on Mar 10, 2010 8:02 AM PST
in Community Projections
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PrintJames Loney was the Dodgers number one pick in the 2002 draft and Dodger fans have been waiting since then for him to fulfill their expectations.
In 2006, James unleashed his talent and maybe got everyone a little to excited when he put up a prodigious Sept complete with a nine rbi game in Colorado on Sept 28th. The Dodgers were not impressed enough and signed Nomar to be the starting first baseman in 2007. A disappointed Loney moped his way to a sluggish AAA season in which he hit only one home run in 261 plate appearances. Then Nomar got hurt and James took over the 1st baseman gig on June 10th, 2007 and has never given it up.
For the rest of 2007, James put on a show and ended the year with a .331/.381/.538 triple stat line. His OPS+ of 134 was the 2nd best in LA Dodger history for a 23 year with over 350 plate appearances.
Player OPS+ PA Year Age H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS Pos
Tommy Davis 149 711 1962 23 230 27 9 27 153 33 65 .346 .374 .535 .910 *758/9
James Loney 134 375 2007 23 114 18 4 15 67 28 48 .331 .381 .538 .919 *3/9
Ron Fairly 125 555 1962 23 128 15 7 14 71 75 59 .278 .379 .433 .811 *39/87
Raul Mondesi 123 454 1994 23 133 27 8 16 56 16 78 .306 .333 .516 .849 *98
Mike Marshall 117 518 1983 23 132 17 1 17 65 43 127 .284 .347 .434 .782 *93
Todd Hollandswort 113 526 1996 23 139 26 4 12 59 41 93 .291 .348 .437 .785 *78/9
Matt Kemp 110 657 2008 23 176 38 5 18 76 46 153 .290 .340 .459 .799 *89
Frank Howard 107 487 1960 23 120 15 2 23 77 32 108 .268 .320 .464 .784 *97/3
Jim Lefebvre 106 631 1965 23 136 21 4 12 69 71 92 .250 .337 .369 .706 *4
Russell Martin 101 468 2006 23 117 26 4 10 65 45 57 .282 .355 .436 .792 *2/D
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 3/9/2010.
This success belied what he had accomplished at the minor league level. Many fans felt they had a future star on their hands but in 2008 and 2009 James Loney hit at a different level. Instead of an elite first baseman he became ordinary to a degree where many wonder if he is a drag on the team.
The bullish argument for James Loney is the Road Loney. For whatever reason, ever since James Loney showed up at Chavez Ravine, he has refused to hit at Chavez Ravine. Many players have home/road splits but very few have home/road splits where the road splits are significantly higher than the home split. These splits have a grand canyon like ravine separating them.
Career Road - .320/.375/.524
Career Home - .269/.333/.375
It took James Loney almost an entire year to hit his first home run at Dodger Stadium in 2009. Why and what can be done to fix it? This is not some small sample size anomaly, this has been the case every year. Until James breaks this pattern he cannot deliver on his promise. We know the promise is there.
Other bullish patterns. His walk rate has now increased from 7% to 11% while dropping his K Rate from from 14% to 11.8%.
| Year | Team | BB% | K% | BB/K | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | wOBA |
| 2006 | Dodgers | 7.20% | 9.80% | 0.8 | 0.342 | 0.559 | 0.901 | 0.275 | 0.284 | 0.377 |
| 2007 | Dodgers | 7.50% | 14.00% | 0.58 | 0.381 | 0.538 | 0.919 | 0.206 | 0.35 | 0.389 |
| 2008 | Dodgers | 6.90% | 14.30% | 0.53 | 0.338 | 0.434 | 0.772 | 0.145 | 0.315 | 0.333 |
| 2009 | Dodgers | 10.70% | 11.80% | 1.03 | 0.357 | 0.399 | 0.756 | 0.118 | 0.299 | 0.332 |
| 2010 | Bill James | 9.10% | 12.40% | 0.81 | 0.36 | 0.44 | 0.8 | 0.146 | 0.316 | 0.351 |
| 2010 | CHONE | 8.30% | 12.90% | 0.71 | 0.355 | 0.446 | 0.801 | 0.152 | 0.318 | 0.351 |
| 2010 | Marcel | 9.10% | 14.00% | 0.73 | 0.358 | 0.444 | 0.802 | 0.151 | 0.315 | 0.347 |
What are your expectations for James Loney. Mine are extremely bullish. I've looked at age 26 for first baseman who have been around a few years and it seems it is a very good age to be a first baseman.
.309/.383/.469/.852
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Comments
For Delias Man, Phil, et al
For everyone who is not willing yet to take the Twitter plunge, here is your best argument for waiting…
Here are the top trending topics in the LA area on Twitter:
1) Actor Corey Haim
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7 of 8 have to do with the now deceased Mr. Haim.
Don’t all 8 of those things have to do with the now deceased Mr. Haim? If you’re ruling out #3 wasn’t he the fantasy of many a lady in the 80’s? :)
Prediction
.302/.350/.440/.790
He releases his hips too early, swings off his front foot, and hits far too many grounders to short for me to believe he will slug over .450.
and waits too long to initiate his swing, letting the ball get too far into the zone if he wants to hit for power.
So, if he can learn to stay back and look out farther for the ball, in front of the plate, then he may hit for power more consistently.
Or what Ethier does
or copy Barrry’s swing
Jus’ sayin’
by 68elcamino427 on Mar 10, 2010 9:29 AM PST up reply actions
Prediction
.310/.365/ .410
While the increase in the walk rate is great, I’m not ready to say that the drop in the K rate is actually a step in the right direction. It could indicate that he’s more interested in simply making contact as opposed to trying to get the right pitch to drive. I don’t like Loney the slap hitter.
Me neither...
Half of his AB’s last year he had the Juan Pierre approach. I think he is really going to try to hit more homers this year, so that is why I have him the benefit of the doubt and increased his slugging pct in my prediction. I docked him OBP because if he starts trying to go deep his walk rate will go down.
Garciaparra will join ESPN as a baseball analyst. He will be seen primarily on Baseball Tonight but will also serve as an occasional game analyst.
I remember when I used to watch Baseball Tonight…
by Eric Stephen on Mar 10, 2010 8:30 AM PST up reply actions
This makes me actually want to watch BBTN. He was only here for 3 years, and only 1 healthy one, but he made a huge impact on the team in 2006. I’ll never forget his first at bat as a Dodger, which was a game winning grandslam in Houston, and his most famous at bat, the walk-off homerun in the 4+1 game.
I will forever remember him for blocking Loney and then LaRoche. Could not stand him when he was here.
by delias man on Mar 10, 2010 10:14 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Lineups (from last thread)
Diamondbacks:
Abreu 6
Parra 8
Jackson 7
Reynolds 5
Montero 2
Snyder DH
Macias 9
Ryal 3
Ojeda 4
Haren RHP
No $51 million man for AZ. Not sure why
Dodgers:
Furcal 6
DeWitt 4
Ethier 9
Kemp 8
Giles DH
Johnson 7
Mientkiewicz 3
Green 5
Ellis 2
Padilla RHP
Mientkiewicz gets to test that shoulder
Scheduled to pitch for Diamondbacks today:
Dan Haren, Wes Roemer, Chad Qualls, Zach Kroenke, Josh Ellis, & Bob Howry
Josh Ellis is the brother of one A.J. Ellis.
(things I didn’t know before today)
Thanks to Tony Jackson
by Eric Stephen on Mar 10, 2010 9:05 AM PST up reply actions
Conflicting reports for the Dodgers
Yesterday, it was Vicente Padilla, Ramon Ortiz, Eric Gagne, Jeff Weaver, & Justin Miller
D-Backs game notes today say its’ Padilla, Ortiz, Weaver, Gagne & Ramon Troncoso.
Miller and Troncoso might both be scheduled to go, but I haven’t seen the Dodger game notes yet.
Some players look like they are having fun, some put on a game face. To me Loney always just looks stressed out. Maybe he just feels the pressure a little too much to perform at home?
Torre calls Loney dumb like a fox…
2009-10 Kings Hockey: Delivering Milk Steaks from the Meat Train at an arena near you!
by DodgerBlueBalls on Mar 10, 2010 10:10 AM PST up reply actions
On the other hand
He’s hit .324 over his career with runners in scoring position. Is there a way to split that stat between home and road on BBR?
Don Mattingly notes
Blake out of the lineup today
We want to give Casey another day. He could go, but we’ll give him another day
On Haeger, who was scratched from Taiwan:
He had some numbness and pain in his back/hip …he felt better today..I think he could throw in a couple days.
On his future:
Everything will come off of what Joe does. I talked to the Dodgers after my first interview with Cleveland. They expressed that they wanted me to be a part of their future. Yes, the word manager was brought up..I like it here. I like California. Nothing definitive was said or done. (Meeting was with Ned, Mr. McCourt and Dennis Mannion) I’m not worried about money or things like that right now..I’m worried about our ballclub and soaking up as much as I can. I know where I want to go, but I have to keep my priorities straight.
Was it here
I saw a picture of Loney at the Dodger clubhouse store. And it said he went unnoticed. I have a feeling he will get noticed this year. ESP if he’s hitting behind a healthy Manny.
Go Dodgers!
.304/ .368/ .465
by Skunkburner on Mar 10, 2010 9:42 AM PST via mobile reply actions
That tounge-in-cheek commercial that they’re doing now on KABC, advertising for winning baseline tickets on the Peter Tillman show so that all Loney fans can see their favorite player up close, is really funny. I just hope by the end of the season, it won’t seem so tounge-in-cheek.
.302/.375/.455
No matter what happens with Loney from this point forward, he’s already won a spot in Dodger immortality for the most important post-Gibson home run in Dodger history, as well as that looping line drive that, um, got lost in a sea of white towels. ahem
I haven’t heard the commercial, but what is tongue in cheek about it? Isn’t it apt to say the baseline seats (at least on 1B side) are closer to Loney than any other player (except maybe Ethier, depending on the location)?
Is there an overall campy tone to the commercial? Just wondering.
by Eric Stephen on Mar 10, 2010 11:14 AM PST up reply actions
kind of
You’ll have to hear it. I wouldn’t quite say that they’re making fun of Loney, but there’s a certain, “Yeah right- because THAT’S the main reason why you’d want baseline seats” tone about it. I heard it on the Sunday Night Sports final, so I suspect they’ll play it again.
Let’s put it this way- it’d be really hard to imagine a commercial with a similar tone when they opened up Mannywood last year.
Positivity!
2009-10 Kings Hockey: Delivering Milk Steaks from the Meat Train at an arena near you!
by DodgerBlueBalls on Mar 10, 2010 10:11 AM PST up reply actions
No Troncoso today
at least, per the Dodger game notes..
scheduled to pitch are Padilla, Ramon O, Weaver, Gagne and Miller.
Scheduled to pitch tomorrow, in Surprise against the Royals, are J-Mac, Russ O, Troncoso, Schlichting, Guerra, and Zerpa. Gil Meche is starting for the Royals.
I think you guys are a bit too early on all these Loney breakouts. I think he’s at least 2 years away from that.
Telling ya
26 years old is a great age to be a first baseman.
by meercatjohn on Mar 10, 2010 10:30 AM PST up reply actions
Just for fun
because I don’t think this is predictive in any way, but I looked up all first basemen (min. 100 games at 1B) at age 25 in the last 50 years to have an OPS+ between 100-110. There were 15 in total, including Mr. Loney (104 OPS+ in 2009).
In their age 26 seasons, most improved (some greatly so) and a few declined:
Wes Parker (age 25 in 1965): 100 OPS+ / 113 OPS+ at age 26
Boog Powell (1967): 104 / 126
Curt Blefary (1969): 109 / 87 (out of baseball at age 28)
Tony Horton (1970): 108 / DNP (age 25 season was final year)
Dave Revering (1978): 106 / 124
Willie Upshaw (1982): 102 / 136
Greg Walker (1985): 103 / 122
Andres Galarraga (1986): 105 / 114
Orlando Merced (1992): 104 / 131
John Mabry (1996): 103 / 91
Carlos Peña (2003): 108 / 113
Adam LaRoche (2005): 100 / 130
Mike Jacobs (2006): 106 / 100
Conor Jackson (2007): 109 / 109
Nine up, one even, three down
by Eric Stephen on Mar 10, 2010 11:02 AM PST up reply actions
Always nice to see Wes Parker on these lists, BTW
by Eric Stephen on Mar 10, 2010 11:04 AM PST up reply actions
A super rough average of the OPS+ (quick and dirty of course, not statistically reliable or anything so don’t take this to the bank) shows 105 OPS+ at age 25, 115 for age 26
by Eric Stephen on Mar 10, 2010 11:09 AM PST up reply actions
2009 MLB 1B
minimum 67 games at 1B (so I could get 30 total first basemen):
Rk Player OPS+ Year Age Tm BA OBP SLG OPS
1 Albert Pujols 188 2009 29 STL .327 .443 .658 1.101
2 Prince Fielder 168 2009 25 MIL .299 .412 .602 1.014
3 Adrian Gonzalez 166 2009 27 SDP .277 .407 .551 .958
4 Joey Votto 155 2009 25 CIN .322 .414 .567 .981
5 Mark Teixeira 149 2009 29 NYY .292 .383 .565 .948
6 Derrek Lee 145 2009 33 CHC .306 .393 .579 .972
7 Kevin Youkilis 145 2009 30 BOS .305 .413 .548 .961
8 Adam Dunn 144 2009 29 WSN .267 .398 .529 .928
9 Miguel Cabrera 142 2009 26 DET .324 .396 .547 .942
10 Ryan Howard 140 2009 29 PHI .279 .360 .571 .931
11 Lance Berkman 139 2009 33 HOU .274 .399 .509 .907
12 Kendry Morales 137 2009 26 LAA .306 .355 .569 .924
13 Todd Helton 130 2009 35 COL .325 .416 .489 .904
14 Carlos Pena 130 2009 31 TBR .227 .356 .537 .893
15 Justin Morneau 129 2009 28 MIN .274 .363 .516 .878
16 Russell Branyan 128 2009 33 SEA .251 .347 .520 .867
17 Victor Martinez 127 2009 30 TOT .303 .381 .480 .861
18 Billy Butler 124 2009 23 KCR .301 .362 .492 .853
19 Lyle Overbay 122 2009 32 TOR .265 .372 .466 .838
20 Adam LaRoche 122 2009 29 TOT .277 .355 .488 .843
21 Nick Johnson 122 2009 30 TOT .291 .426 .405 .831
22 Paul Konerko 115 2009 33 CHW .277 .353 .489 .842
23 Jorge Cantu 105 2009 27 FLA .289 .345 .443 .788
24 James Loney 104 2009 25 LAD .281 .357 .399 .756
25 Ryan Garko 103 2009 28 TOT .268 .344 .421 .765
26 Dan Murphy 95 2009 24 NYM .266 .313 .427 .741
27 Casey Kotchman 90 2009 26 TOT .268 .339 .382 .721
28 Travis Ishikawa 86 2009 25 SFG .261 .329 .387 .715
29 Chris Davis 85 2009 23 TEX .238 .284 .442 .726
30 Aubrey Huff 81 2009 32 TOT .241 .310 .384 .694
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 3/10/2010.
by Eric Stephen on Mar 10, 2010 11:18 AM PST up reply actions
Since I used prOPS earlier, per The Hardball Times, there were 21 1B in 2009 with enough PA to qualify. Loney’s .809 prOPS ranked 18th
Billy Butler, Jorge Cantu, and Daniel Murphy were worse.
by Eric Stephen on Mar 10, 2010 11:22 AM PST up reply actions
two things striking about that list
1) The fact that Todd Helton is 13th shows that we really are in a golden age of 1st baseman.
2) Isn’t the man who’s #30 on the list supposed to be the Giant’s big offseason acquisition?! It looks like he had a great season in ’08, but his career numbers are inconsistent, to say the least.
Yup
I was amazed at the jump from age 25 to 26 for many of those hitters. Norm Cash anyone:)
by meercatjohn on Mar 10, 2010 11:57 AM PST up reply actions
Are you advocating for Loney to cork his bat? ;)
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
by David Young on Mar 10, 2010 12:12 PM PST up reply actions
.284 / .359 / .417
This will be Loney’s last season as the Dodgers full time first baseman.
AB: 550
Hits: 156
1B: 114
2B: 25
3B: 2
HR: 15
wOBA: .345
babip: .302
Even if he puts up those numbers I’ll take that bet.
by meercatjohn on Mar 10, 2010 10:56 AM PST up reply actions
Right
If you are unsatisfied with his numbers, it wouldn’t make sense to incur additional expense AND bring someone else in. The smarter move would be to cut Loney loose (thereby avoiding his arbitration raise) and then sign 2 cheap warm bodies to platoon at first, or just hope Lambo has a great year this year and he can do it on the cheap. If you are going to pay Loney anyway, why bother bringing someone else in to split time? Its not that his production above is that poor, its that he would be too expensive to warrant that production. But unless you cut him completely, you don’t solve that problem (you arguably make it worse.)
by Michael White on Mar 10, 2010 11:02 AM PST up reply actions
Or you could trade him
My thought was simply that for a 1B, if he doesn’t improve, he won’t be worth what he will get in arb.
By cutting loose I meant trading him. I’m not actually advocating non-tendering.
by Michael White on Mar 10, 2010 11:07 AM PST up reply actions
I was just cutting Loney a little slack, but you are right – trading him would be the most efficient thing to do as opposed to platooning him. The scenario I was thinking of was.
Year n: Loney gets 85% of at bats at 1B w/ salary of $3.1M
Year n+1: Loney gets 60% of at bats at 1B w/ salary of $4.0M + salary of platoon mate.
- re-evaluate —
If Loney is still a dud at the plate then
Year n+2: Trade Loney.. replace in house / trade / FA
else if Loney improves on offense
Year n+2: Loney goes back to being a full-time starter
I was thinking more along the lines of Loney getting a shot in year n and if he doesn’t show improvement at the plate a little bit of a shot in year n+1.
vr, Xei
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