2010 Dodger Profiles - Vicente Padilla

 

Eric pretty much covered Vicente Padilla when we signed him on Jan 21st, along with the warning back in December,  that signing Padilla might not be the best move. 

 As a Dodger in 2009 Padilla went 4-0 with a 3.20 ERA in eight regular season games and then pitched two memorable post season games before falling to the Phillies in game five.  His shutout seven inning series clinching performance against the Cardinals on enemy territory already ranked as one of the best postseason performances of the last 22 years, but he followed that up with an even more vaunted performance when he shut down the loaded Phillie offense in game 2.  Through it all Padilla was a model citizen in the Dodger clubhouse but was still looking for work when the Dodgers nabbed on a one year deal in January to flush out the rotation.  Can Vicente Padilla replicate his 2009 Dodger success? Let us take a look

From Baseball HQ

Year   IP   ERA   xERA  WHIP  CTL  DOM  CMD  BPV  
==== === ==== ==== ==== === === === ===
2005 147 4.71 4.47 1.50 4.5 6.3 1.4 15
2006 200 4.50 4.05 1.38 3.2 7.0 2.2 63
2007 120 5.76 4.84 1.63 3.7 5.3 1.4 18
2008 171 4.74 4.35 1.46 3.4 6.7 2.0 49
2009 147 4.46 4.22 1.43 3.3 5.9 1.8 44

1H 09 83 4.77 4.70 1.52 4.1 4.9 1.2 4
2H 09 64 4.07 3.65 1.31 2.2 7.3 3.3 95

Despite having a bullet pass completely through his thigh on November 3rd he is completely healthy and has proven it with a solid spring so far. 

More from Baseball HQ:

  • At just 32 years of age, Padilla should have several more years of low 4.00 xERA ... and if that 2H xERA (3.65) is any indication, Padilla likes pitching in Chavez Ravine, thank you very much.
  • Not only did Padilla gain an inch or two on his fastball upon joining the Dodgers, he began trusting his stuff and the team around him and it resulted in vastly improved WHIP (1.31), CTL (2.2), DOM (7.3) and CMD (3.3) in the 2H.
  • Want to see a Tale of Two Halves? Compare Padilla's 1H BPV (4) with his 2H BPV (95) and you can tell Padilla likes wearing Dodger Blue.

 

Here are his 2010 projections:

Year IP ERA FIP BB/9 K/9
2009 actual 147.1 4.46 4.51 3.30 5.93
2010 HQ 160 4.39 3.35 6.3
2010 Bill James     141 4.66 4.73 3.26 6.19
2010 CHONE 155 4.70 4.74 3.60 6.27

 

Mine:

ERA 3.89 / WHIP 1.29 / IP 184 and a K Rate that moves back to his glory days of 7.4.

I'm drinking the Koolaid.

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