2010 Dodger Profiles - Vicente Padilla
by Phil Gurnee on Mar 11, 2010 8:21 AM PST
in Community Projections
72 comments
Eric pretty much covered Vicente Padilla when we signed him on Jan 21st, along with the warning back in December, that signing Padilla might not be the best move.
As a Dodger in 2009 Padilla went 4-0 with a 3.20 ERA in eight regular season games and then pitched two memorable post season games before falling to the Phillies in game five. His shutout seven inning series clinching performance against the Cardinals on enemy territory already ranked as one of the best postseason performances of the last 22 years, but he followed that up with an even more vaunted performance when he shut down the loaded Phillie offense in game 2. Through it all Padilla was a model citizen in the Dodger clubhouse but was still looking for work when the Dodgers nabbed on a one year deal in January to flush out the rotation. Can Vicente Padilla replicate his 2009 Dodger success? Let us take a look
From Baseball HQ
Year IP ERA xERA WHIP CTL DOM CMD BPV
==== === ==== ==== ==== === === === ===
2005 147 4.71 4.47 1.50 4.5 6.3 1.4 15
2006 200 4.50 4.05 1.38 3.2 7.0 2.2 63
2007 120 5.76 4.84 1.63 3.7 5.3 1.4 18
2008 171 4.74 4.35 1.46 3.4 6.7 2.0 49
2009 147 4.46 4.22 1.43 3.3 5.9 1.8 44
1H 09 83 4.77 4.70 1.52 4.1 4.9 1.2 4
2H 09 64 4.07 3.65 1.31 2.2 7.3 3.3 95
Despite having a bullet pass completely through his thigh on November 3rd he is completely healthy and has proven it with a solid spring so far.
More from Baseball HQ:
- At just 32 years of age, Padilla should have several more years of low 4.00 xERA ... and if that 2H xERA (3.65) is any indication, Padilla likes pitching in Chavez Ravine, thank you very much.
- Not only did Padilla gain an inch or two on his fastball upon joining the Dodgers, he began trusting his stuff and the team around him and it resulted in vastly improved WHIP (1.31), CTL (2.2), DOM (7.3) and CMD (3.3) in the 2H.
- Want to see a Tale of Two Halves? Compare Padilla's 1H BPV (4) with his 2H BPV (95) and you can tell Padilla likes wearing Dodger Blue.
Here are his 2010 projections:
| Year | IP | ERA | FIP | BB/9 | K/9 |
| 2009 actual | 147.1 | 4.46 | 4.51 | 3.30 | 5.93 |
| 2010 HQ | 160 | 4.39 | 3.35 | 6.3 | |
| 2010 Bill James | 141 | 4.66 | 4.73 | 3.26 | 6.19 |
| 2010 CHONE | 155 | 4.70 | 4.74 | 3.60 | 6.27 |
Mine:
ERA 3.89 / WHIP 1.29 / IP 184 and a K Rate that moves back to his glory days of 7.4.
I'm drinking the Koolaid.
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Lineups
Dodgers
Furcal SS
Johnson DH
Ethier RF
Kemp CF
Blake 3B
DeWitt 2B
Mientkiewicz 1B
Ausmus C
Repko LF
McDonald P
Royals
Podsednik LF
Kendall C
DeJesus RF
Butler 1B
Ankiel CF
Guillen DH
Fields 3B
Betancourt SS
Bloomquist 2B
Meche P
I don't understand WHIP,
but I think he should have a great year. Prob our #2 pitcher behind Kuroda. I think this is the year we get over the hump.
by Skunkburner on Mar 11, 2010 8:39 AM PST via mobile reply actions
walks and hits divided by innings pitched
by Michael White on Mar 11, 2010 8:46 AM PST up reply actions
Prob our #2 pitcher behind Kuroda.
What?? I could see an argument where Kuroda is our top pitcher, but Kershaw and Billingsley are virtual locks to have better years than Padilla.
Ranked by probable innings pitched this season:
1. Billingsley – 200+
2. Kuroda – 190 +
3. Kershaw – 180+
4. Padillia – 160 +
by 68elcamino427 on Mar 11, 2010 8:53 AM PST up reply actions
I don’t know if I agree. Bills needs to step it up a bit. And Kershaw is dope, but we’ll see what happens. Based on what I saw at the dnd of last year Padillia was dealing. Either way, our pitching should be stout.
by Skunkburner on Mar 11, 2010 11:38 AM PST via mobile up reply actions
Stults to Japan option probably gone
I asked NPB Tracker:
Sanspo said that Lotte gave up on him because his salary + transfer fee would be over $1m http://bit.ly/aypezU
Here’s a translated version of the link, too
I imagine Stults would have to consent to a move to Japan right?
by Michael White on Mar 11, 2010 9:07 AM PST up reply actions
Yes, but usually the salary plus opportunity to pitch makes it worth his while.
by Eric Stephen on Mar 11, 2010 9:09 AM PST up reply actions
So its not a situation where Colleti calls Stults into his office and says
Ned: Eric, we have traded you to the Giants.
Stults: Really, I’m heading up to San Francisco
Ned: {interrupting} not those Giants….
by Michael White on Mar 11, 2010 9:12 AM PST up reply actions
I hate to say it
But these Prime Ticket spring telecasts are a real disappointment. I got excited when I heard they were televising so many games, but the quality is just so poor it’s hard to watch. I keep recording them and barely watching them.
They made a choice to limit the broadcast, in an effort to lower costs to bring more games to TV.
It’s infinitely better than no TV, which has been the case for most of our lives. Even last year, what were there, three spring games on TV? This year, it’s 14.
by Eric Stephen on Mar 11, 2010 8:59 AM PST up reply actions
If you wanted to see Mike Moustakas today you will be disappointed, as he along with David Lough, Danny Duffy, Derrick Robinson, Ernesto Mejia, Mario Lisson, and Steven Lerud, as they were assigned to minor league camp by the Royals
Dodger minor leaguers on the roster today
Dee Gordon
Brandon Watson
Andrew “Adam” Lambo
Sticks Russell
Jaime Pedroza
Brian Cavazos-Galvez
Austin Yount (son of Robin)
The 40-man roster page lists Russell as 6-5, 195. That’s crazy skinny.
And I have no clue why he’s on there either.
I’m thinking 1989 Reggie Miller level skinny! :)
by Eric Stephen on Mar 11, 2010 9:21 AM PST up reply actions
For Silverwidow
Kershaw is starting tomorrow…
followed by Monasterios, Broxton, Sherrill, Ayala & Leach
Bronson Arroyo and his leg kick will start for Cincy
Aroldis Chapman is also scheduled to pitch for the Reds…should be fun.
by Eric Stephen on Mar 11, 2010 9:19 AM PST up reply actions
We call him the Monk
Or at least I do.
There's no need to fear, Underdog is here! / Broncos/Dodgers/Lakers fan in Niners/Raiders/Giants/Warriors country, and damned proud of it.
Sub 4 ERA
After watching those 96MPH fastballs and rainbow curves last year as well as the “best stuff on the team” comments from the coaching staff I have some high hopes for Padilla.
Helton restrucures, extends with Colorado
See Purple Row
Old contract:
2011: $19.1m
2012: $4.6m buyout of option
New contract:
2011: $10.6m
2012: $4.9m
2013: $5m
2014-2023: payout of $13.1m deferred
Wait a second, you mean other teams defer money too?
I thought it was only our devil owner?
by Michael White on Mar 11, 2010 9:49 AM PST up reply actions
Short term, it seems great for the Rockies as they free up $8.5m for 2011
by Eric Stephen on Mar 11, 2010 9:50 AM PST up reply actions
Long term, they are committing to Helton through age 39. But he was still productive this year. I guess it depends on health. But it’s a risk I would have probably taken if I were them, especially given the savings in 2011.
by Eric Stephen on Mar 11, 2010 9:54 AM PST up reply actions
Good for him
and nice of them to reward a longtime guy. But that’s also a lot of moolah to tie up in a guy who may be done as far as being an effective player after this year. But better him than an Andruw Jones I guess.
There's no need to fear, Underdog is here! / Broncos/Dodgers/Lakers fan in Niners/Raiders/Giants/Warriors country, and damned proud of it.
No
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Mar 11, 2010 10:01 AM PST up reply actions
Shit
Merlin Olsen died.
http://espn.go.com/blog/los-angeles/dodger-thoughts
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
Merlin
was a big part of childhood. From playing for the Rams to being teamed with Enberg on NFL games. Man I loved those Rams.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Mar 11, 2010 10:02 AM PST up reply actions
Bad week for LA sports legends born in 1940. For those concerned, Jerry West was born in 1938, and Elgin Baylor 1934.
Don Nelson was born in 1940 (on May 15; Davis and Olsen were also on a 15th), and did spend two seasons with the Lakers….
by Eric Stephen on Mar 11, 2010 10:26 AM PST up reply actions
What would the D-Backs look like without Haren?
C: Miguel Montero
1B: Conor Jackson
2B: Roberts/Abreu
SS: Stephen Drew
3B: Mark Reynolds
LF: Carlos Gonzalez
CF: Chris Young
RF: Justin Upton
They’d also still have Chris Carter, monster power hitter at 1B.
Rotation:
Brandon Webb
Brett Anderson
Edwin Jackson
Ian Kennedy
Pretty damn solid.
I'd forgotten that
Brett Anderson came along in that deal. That does change the perception. You could go a step further and say what if they had protected Uggla in the rule five draft and not traded Carlos Quentin.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
by Phil Gurnee on Mar 11, 2010 10:11 AM PST up reply actions
Edwin could put up some sick numbers back in the NL West.
by robotmadeofnails on Mar 11, 2010 10:13 AM PST up reply actions
When a 22-year old has the least amount of question marks in the starting rotation, I’d be a little worried.
Oh wait… :)
by Eric Stephen on Mar 11, 2010 10:17 AM PST up reply actions
Maybe
if Mientkiewicz can play 1B, he still has some life
by Eric Stephen on Mar 11, 2010 10:59 AM PST up reply actions
Yeah, but his being limited to 1B hurts his chances. I don’t think either GA or Minky will spend much time in the field but, I imagine they would like having the option that GA can play LF or 1B if need be.
Belliard and Blake are 1b options to rest Loney as well.
At this point my guess is Anderson over Minky
by 68elcamino427 on Mar 11, 2010 12:07 PM PST up reply actions
Giles wanted to keep that .400 career OBP in tact. :)
by silverwidow on Mar 11, 2010 11:21 AM PST up reply actions
I assume you rejected all your “C+” grades in favor of straight "C"s.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
by David Young on Mar 11, 2010 12:09 PM PST up reply actions
I would have made the same comment anyway. I’m just like that.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
by David Young on Mar 12, 2010 12:07 AM PST up reply actions
Casey Blake will be on ESPN 710 shortly, although I’m not sure what time. Unless it’s a taped interview, I would imagine it will happen in the next 10-15 minutes or so.
sounds like Blake will be on in the 2:00 hour, after he comes out of the game.
by Eric Stephen on Mar 11, 2010 11:21 AM PST up reply actions
PADILLA
DRINKING KOOL-AID is fine but what are you SMOKIN? LOL I hope your right but an ERA in the 4’s wont be enough as the DODGERS and a JUICELESS Manny wont have enough offense to support him giving up more than 3 runs.
GO BLUE!
by California Mobile CPR on Mar 11, 2010 11:32 AM PST reply actions
Having two OTHER players as Silver Slugger OFs means nothing?
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
by David Young on Mar 11, 2010 12:09 PM PST up reply actions
Vicente Padila
15-8 3.85 ERA 195+
just like i said last year when Texas cut him he has a lot of talent and will be a great addition to our pitching staff
by Dodgermanramon on Mar 11, 2010 12:21 PM PST reply actions
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NL West Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
San Diego
|
76 | 59 | .562 | 0 | Lost 10 |
|
San Francisco
|
76 | 61 | .554 | 1 | Won 2 |
|
Colorado
|
72 | 64 | .529 | 4.5 | Won 3 |
|
Los Angeles
|
69 | 68 | .503 | 8 | Lost 2 |
|
Arizona
|
56 | 81 | .408 | 21 | Lost 2 |
(updated 9.5.2010 at 7:48 PM PDT)
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