Dodgers Notes: Ramon Ortiz & Fun With Spring Stats
by Eric Stephen on Mar 15, 2010 7:15 PM PDT
in Game Recaps
59 comments
Ramon Ortiz was solid again today for the Dodgers, his third straight sharp outing, throwing four shutout innings in Tempe in the Dodgers' 4-0 win over the Angels. In three appearances, Ortiz has put up impressive numbers:
| Ramon Ortiz 2010 Spring Training | |||||
| IP | Hits | Runs | BB | K | ERA |
| 9.0 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 0.00 |
Those numbers sure are great, but they illustrate the age-old argument of how to weight spring training statistics. What is more telling: the small sample size of three spring outings, or a track record of five years? Here is how Ortiz has fared since leaving the Angels:
| Year | Age | Team | IP | HR/9 | BB/9 | K/9 | ERA | FIP |
| 2005 | 32 | Cin | 171.1 | 1.79 | 2.68 | 5.04 | 5.36 | 5.49 |
| 2006 | 33 | Was | 190.2 | 1.46 | 3.02 | 4.91 | 5.57 | 5.46 |
| 2007 | 34 | Min/Col | 104.0 | 1.38 | 1.90 | 4.41 | 5.45 | 5.07 |
| 2008 | 35 | Orix (Japan) | 82.0 | 1.10 | 2.20 | 3.51 | 5.82 | 4.99 |
| 2009 | 36 | Fresno (AAA) | 129.2 | 0.76 | 2.36 | 4.91 | 3.05 | 3.33 |
It would be great if Ortiz, who turns 37 a week from tomorrow, has suddenly turned over a new leaf as a pitcher, something he hinted at after today's game. Per the Associated Press:
He credits his experience in Japan with teaching him a different approach to pitching.
"I'll take 93 or 94 [mph] on the corner rather than 97 right down the middle," said Ortiz, who said he adjusted to more of a finesse approach because of the tight Japanese strike zone. "Japan helped me a lot."
Ortiz was good in Triple A last season, but does that mean he will be effective this year, for the Dodgers, in the major leagues? The main difference I can find is in his ground ball rate, which was better in 2009 than in recent years (I don't have batted ball splits for his season in Japan). Per FanGraphs and MinorLeagueSplits.com:
| Year | GB% |
| 2005 | 43.6% |
| 2006 | 40.8% |
| 2007 | 43.0% |
| 2009 | 47.3% |
There wasn't a huge improvement in 2009, but it was an improvement, which is important since Ortiz has always been prone to give up the home run. If Ortiz is a new pitcher, more power to him, and it will help the Dodgers. But even though the club over the last two years has received positive contributions from Chan Ho Park and Jeff Weaver, both with no recent success to their name at the time, color me skeptical that Ramon Ortiz will make it three years in a row for the Dodgers.
Other notes from today's game:
- One day after 2009 12th round draft pick Brian Cavazos-Galvez launched a home run, the Dodgers today got a blast from 2009 4th round draft pick Angelo Songco, who powered a ball over the right field fence in the seventh inning
- Ethan Martin, rated by True Blue LA readers as the fifth-best Dodger prospect, made his debut in big league camp, allowing two hits while striking out one in a scoreless inning.
- Vicente Padilla, who was scheduled to start today's game in Tempe, instead threw 77 pitches in a simulated game at Camelback Ranch, per the Associated Press
- After the game, the Dodgers reassigned Argenis Reyes to minor league camp, and optioned Ivan DeJesus and pitchers Brent Leach and Travis Schlichting, reducing the number of players in major league camp to 50.
- Ronald Belisario, who will make 51 players in camp once he is allowed entry into the country, was called a "long shot" by Joe Torre to make the opening day roster
- Torre, on the potential options for the out-of-options Charlie Haeger: "He will have the opportunity to be a reliever because he can pitch everyday. The fact that he's out of options means you have to look at him for the fifth starter."
- Benjamin Hill of MiLB.com takes a look at Dodgertown in Vero Beach, currently under management by Minor League Baseball
- There will be a private memorial service for Willie Davis Tuesday at Dodger Stadium, per the Associated Press
The Dodgers are off tomorrow, but return to action Wednesday at Camelback Ranch against the White Sox.
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DeJon Watson said DeJesus is being looked at strictly a SS at the moment.
http://baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=10248#commentMessage
I just added him…I was staring at the boxscore, seeing if I forgot anything…sure enough, I did :)
by Eric Stephen on Mar 15, 2010 7:24 PM PDT up reply actions
Does Ramon Ortiz have
to be the 5th starter to make the team? Or would they feel comfortable with him in the bullpen if Stults or someone else got the job. I ask because it is obvious that Belisario isn’t going to be on the roster opening day. He has pitched brilliant so far………small sample size :)
I think both are options. Ortiz could easily take the swing man spot I had earmarked for Weaver.
by Eric Stephen on Mar 15, 2010 7:32 PM PDT up reply actions
Assume seven bullpen jobs, Stults winning the 5th starter, and Belisario on the suspended list.
Locks: Broxton, Sherrill, Kuo (assuming health), Troncoso
Who are the most likely for the next three spots? Weaver, McDonald, Haeger (no options), Monasterios (rule 5), Lindblom (not on 40-man). Ramon Ortiz has got to be in the mix, but I think he has to continue to impress and Weaver has got to suck for that to happen.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
Ok
Does the “small sample size” ever become a large enough sample size in ST? He has pitched well and may continue to do so, but I’m sure the FO will take into account his previous 3 or 4 years. I guess it has to be a big sell job on his part to convince the team that it is for real this time.
He’s not going to have much more than 20 or maybe 25 innings in total this spring, so I can’t imagine it would be large enough to be significant. Those innings will likely be valued, or overvalued though in determining his roster status.
by Eric Stephen on Mar 15, 2010 7:45 PM PDT up reply actions
Do you remember Scott Erickson?
As a pure statistical analysis, no, there’s not enough innings. I imagine the judgment of the coaches on how his stuff looks would play a big part in the evaluation as well. But if he never gets hit hard and his pitches are moving, you never know.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
Link gets Belisario’s spot
Ramon O gets Weaver’s spot
Last spot is up in the air; could be Monasterios
McDonald
to AAA to prep for 5th starter if needed or to get consistent work? It seems like they like Monasterios and don’t want to lose him. I know that you are high on him.
Thats kind of where I was going. There is no doubt he has done his part to try and earn a job. What are his options as far as Minor League ball? Is he willing to go to AAA. thanks buddy, I’ll hang up and listen
Given that he pitched in AAA last year, I’d guess he might be willing to be this years Eric Milton et al. Unless he thinks he can hook on with another team, like the DBacks, who just signed Kris Benson to a minor-league deal in a desperation depth move partially triggered by Brandon Webb’s slow recovery.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
not sure of Ortiz’s contract. I know Weaver has an out if he’s not on the roster by opening day. They might be able to convince Ortiz to hang tight in the minors for a while and that his chance will come in time.
by Eric Stephen on Mar 15, 2010 7:42 PM PDT up reply actions
Here's how you fit all the NRI veterans.
- option Billinglsey
- option Kershaw
- option DeWitt
- option Ethier
- option Kemp
- option Kuo
- option Broxton.
There, you just created 7 new spots on the 25 man roster.
T. J. Simers
does a half-assed analysis and concludes the Angels are better than the Dodgers. Maybe they are, maybe they aren’t, but in the DT comments, Jon Weisman zeroed in one the most asinine quote in the article:
Starting pitching: The Angels can send someone to the mound every night with a chance to win. The Dodgers cannot. Clayton Kershaw might be the only Dodgers’ starter who would have the chance of starting for the Angels. Decisive edge: Angels.
For those not keeping close tabs, the Angels rotation projects to be (you pick the order):
Weaver the Younger, Santana, Kazmir, Piniero, Saunders.
Is that really a “decisive edge” over:
Kershaw, Kuroda, Billingsley, Padilla, Stults?
It’s not a stretch at all for 2010 to end up:
Kershaw > Weaver the Younger
Bills > Kazmir
Kuroda > Santana
Padilla > Pineiro
5th starters < Saunders.
He also tries to compare the two teams in this category: DH/pinch hitter. Won’t every AL team have the “edge” over every NL team here? It should say “DH: N/A”. He ignores the bench. He ignores the bullpen (a potentially huge Dodger strength) except for the closer. Bah.
OK, Simers got a rise out of me. His objective is reached.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
I would say that Santana has better potential than Kuroda, but Kuroda is way more solid. It’s an even year, that means Santana is going to be great, lol.
I’d say Pineiro would be equal to Padilla, though I think in all reality it’s Pinero>Padilla.
Otherwise I’m with your other assertions. Until the 5th starter improves for the Dodgers, or Padilla has a great year, I’d put the Angels rotation over the Dodgers, but not by a big amount.
I’m not even claiming my comparisons are even true today, just that they are not a stretch to be true for 2010, which means it can’t be a “decisive edge”. That’s just idiocy.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
My email to Simers.
Could your article be any more of a joke? I’m not sure if you’ve heard of a guy who pitches on the Dodgers named Chad Billingsley, but he exists. Billingsley had a WAR of 4.4 in 2008 and 3.1 in 2009. Then you have a man by the name of Hiroki Kuroda, who had WARs of 3.5 in 2008 and 2.2 in 2009 (injured a few times, keep in mind).
Let’s now measure that against the WAR totals of Angels starting pitchers:
Joe Saunders: 2.8 – 2008 1.2 – 2009
Scott Kazmir: 2.1 – 2008 2.3 – 2009
Jered Weaver – 3.4 -2008 3.9 – 2009
Ervin Santana – 5.8 – 2008 1.1 – 2009. And just for reference 1.1 – 2007
Joel Pineiro – 0.9 – 2008 4.8 – 2009
So how exactly could Billingsley or Kuroda not make it into the Angel’s rotation? Pineiro is clearly a player getting a big, though short termed, contract and had a career year by far to get it. Ervin Santana is the Oliver Perez of the Angels and has a great year every other year, and a completely putrid year in between those years. The good news for you is that the even years are his good ones, so you might strike gold by shooting at a rabit on your hillbilly property. Yes, a Beverly Hillbillies reference. Joe Saunders is all wins, and nothing else. He can’t strike anyone out, but does have a good walk rate. Other than that he’s an average pitcher. Scott Kazmir can be a very, very good pitcher, but hasn’t been one for 2 or 3 seasons now. I’m not so sure he will rebound to his 2006 ways just yet.
The only stud of that rotation is Jered Weaver, and Billingsley has been just as good if not better than him in the last 2 seasons.
After researching this further than just my knowledge of the two teams I’m not even sure the Angels have a better rotation than the Dodgers unless 3 of the Angels starters decide to have a career year in 2010. Please do us a favor and actually research your articles.
Sad but true
When Simers sees “WAR,” he won’t read another word of your letter. If you want him to hear you, you’re going to have to meet him at his level.
I was just thinking the same thing
Simers: “WAR? What is it good for? Absolutely nothing! Stupid statheads taking all the fun out of baseball mutter mutter etc etc”
That article has elevated Simers back to down near Plaschke level in my estimation after giving him a period of “Oh he’s not as bad as BP” break for awhile.
There's no need to fear, Underdog is here! / Broncos/Dodgers/Lakers fan in Niners/Raiders/Giants/Warriors country, and damned proud of it.
Unfortunately I know that you are right. I guess it was just wishful thinking. Then again, I’m not sure why he would like Saunders and Santana so much, neither one has a good ERA. Some people just have their biases that cloud all fact.
Even if you made a case for Billingsley based solely on ERA and injury history, if he responded at all, it would be some crack about Billingsley being a head case and/or a playoff choker. This is why I never e-mail him and just whine about him in the blogs.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
+1
he’s going to give you a one line smart ass response.
I would doubt that he would even respond. He probably gets mail like this every day in much larger amounts.
TJ is all about reaction
I don’t think he really cares about what he writes as long as he knows he going to get a reaction. He’s a lowest common denominator writer.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
My intended point with the last sentence of my original comment on this topic. Obviously, I agree with you.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
Hahahaha, he responded. I'm actually surprised. My dad said he wrote him back a couple times too, and it actually caused my dad to cancel the times
billingsley has been huge disappointment—-was sent to bullpen for playoffs—-does that sound like someone whocould be in angels rotation? kuroda doesn’t make it to all star break without injury
But Ervin Santana will be healthy all year. Sure TJ.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
by David Young on Mar 16, 2010 12:29 AM PDT up reply actions
lol
kazmir and billz are probably =
santana is better then kuroda
padilla and piniero are probably tied…
simers is crazy tho that he thinks that only kershaw would make the angels… bills would easily and kuroda would make them too..
and now that i think of it.. pienero is better then padilla…
santana
might have more potential than kuroda but he is so damn inconsistent and last year was injured. I don’t know if putting money on Santana is a good bet
Rehabbing arm instead of surgery
don’t like that bet long term.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
Maybe the best argument is, pretend you are Tony Reagins and Ned Colletti calls you.
Ned: Hey Tony, I have a proposal for you.
Tony: Shoot Ned.
Ned: I need to make a little image makeover for my team. How would you like to add Chad Billingsley to your roster?
Tony: Hmmm, what are you asking in return?
Ned: I’ll take [Kazmir | Santana | Pineiro | Saunders], straight up.
Now, no matter which name this fictitious Ned plops in there, don’t you make the deal? So that’s two pitchers that would start for the Angels, right there. Screw Simers.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
Here's what I wrote on Twitter
which is the equivalent of CC-ing their sports editor.
TJ Simers. Bill Plaschke. @LATimessports really has quite an assortment of asses writing for them. Sad considering what paper once offered.
Short but to the point! No point in writing Simers or Plaschke, they won’t learn or improve, it will just prove to the paper and them that they drive readership.
There's no need to fear, Underdog is here! / Broncos/Dodgers/Lakers fan in Niners/Raiders/Giants/Warriors country, and damned proud of it.
true
I emailed Simers once to correct a mistake he made on a Dodger trade. He smart-alecked me back while making a compound error. He’s a shock journalism pure and simple. (Plaschke’s just a simpleton.)
Big Roto debate on Baseball HQ
over which pitcher would you want in 2010, Billingsley or Kershaw.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
We need a nickname
for Simers, and probably Plaschke, too. It would be best if one of the players would coin it (a la Curt Schilling labeling Dan Shaughnessy “Curly Haired Boyfriend”), but I think we should take suggestions.
I nominate Fuckface McGee.
The difference between the two of them is that I can actually read Simers; sometimes he makes me laugh. But this one was indeed a head scratcher. Go back to an earlier post today, however, and Simers isn’t alone: John Heyman also said that the Angels have the best rotation in baseball, not just LA. Must be journalistic fungus.
by KellyStephen on Mar 15, 2010 10:10 PM PDT up reply actions
Some of these guys are overrating that fact that the Angels don’t have a fifth starter question.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
by David Young on Mar 15, 2010 10:13 PM PDT up reply actions
The Ass Brothers, Smart and Pompous.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
by David Young on Mar 15, 2010 10:11 PM PDT up reply actions
Ortiz
I finally watched the game and thought Ortiz looked good. It looked like he was throwing pretty hard (low 90s?) with a good changeup and decent slider. I know it’s a fool’s errand to fall for spring results, but I am. I still prefer Stults in the #5 spot, but I think Ortiz has to be considered for a bullpen job. Right now, I believe he offers more than Weaver.
Ethan Martin today
I know his debut wasn’t as “loud” as Withrow’s yesterday, but I really liked what I saw from him. His delivery is more tamed and to the point compared to his prep pitching videos and wow, did the ball just explode out of his hand and popped that catching mitt. Also, great release point and arm speed on that curveball; he snapped off a couple of dandys.
Obviously last year he was very inconsistent but he definitely has the the front line stuff. It’s all about innings for him. If he can stay healthy, he’ll shoot up prospect rankings for sure.
i loved his fast pace
he would get the ball and throw it… no wasting time…
by matthewmafa on Mar 15, 2010 10:40 PM PDT up reply actions
Hey, Nate...
I saw some video of Martin pitching last year in Great Lakes. His delivery reminded me of Matt Cain’s.
Cain's tempo is faster
Martin’s delivery is a little more deliberate. First thing comparison that immediately popped in my head was Scott Proctor.
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NL West Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
San Diego
|
60 | 42 | .588 | 0 | Lost 2 |
|
San Francisco
|
60 | 45 | .571 | 1.5 | Won 2 |
|
Los Angeles
|
54 | 50 | .519 | 7 | Lost 4 |
|
Colorado
|
54 | 50 | .519 | 7 | Won 3 |
|
Arizona
|
38 | 66 | .365 | 23 | Lost 1 |
(updated 7.31.2010 at 9:51 PM PDT)
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