2010 Player Profile: Rafael Furcal - Back To Normal?
Rafael Furcal will be starting his fifth season with the Los Angeles Dodgers in 2010. He's hoping that it is his second season in L.A. that is not seriously affected by injury.
- 2006 - 159 games played, career year at the plate with an .814 OPS.
- 2007 - Jason Repko wrecks Furcal's ankle in spring training. The Dodgers perceiving that that they lack alternatives at SS don't rest Furcal after he starts the season on the DL and he plays on a bad wheel all year: .687 OPS and a -15.2 UZR/150.
- 2008 - Red-hot start ruined by back injury and surgery, misses games 33 to 157.
- 2009 - Still recovering from the back surgery, Furcal never seemed to let his game fully loose. Talking about last season, he told Tom Singer of mlb.com,
"I felt afraid of hurting the back again. Everything I did, that was in the back of my mind." ... "As a whole, it was bad. I never found myself until the end of the season."
Despite being plagued by injuries and related issues, the switch-hitting Furcal has been the second-best offensive Dodger shortstop in the "Integration Era" (1947 to the present), measured by OPS+:
Rk Player OPS+ BA OBP SLG OPS PA From To Age
1 Pee Wee Reese 100 .273 .371 .390 .760 7136 1947 1958 28-39
2 Rafael Furcal 98 .286 .354 .406 .760 2222 2006 2009 28-31
3 Jose Offerman 87 .256 .344 .325 .669 2297 1990 1995 21-26
4 Maury Wills 87 .281 .331 .332 .663 6744 1959 1972 26-39
5 Greg Gagne 83 .253 .315 .359 .673 1040 1996 1997 34-35
6 Bill Russell 82 .263 .310 .338 .648 8020 1969 1986 20-37
Defensively, fangraphs.com has Furcal's career UZR/150 at -3.1 (for the years for which data is available, 2002-present) , but with some wild swings. 2008 is, of course, a ridiculously small sample size, but even a full season is considered a smallish sample size for UZR.

Fun Fact
Excluding rehab assignments, Furcal has only 11 career minor-league plate appearances above the A+ level, all in AA ball.
Not So Fun Fact
Furcal's career high walk rate of 13.5% was in his 2000 NL Rookie of the Year season with Atlanta.
Contract Status
Furcal is signed through 2011, with an $8.5 million salary for 2010, and with an option for 2012 that he could vest or that he could opt out of based on PAs. Details here. (He would be a 34-year old SS in 2012, so if he vests that option, which would be worth $12M - $14.3M, at first blush it would seem unlikely he would opt out.)
2010 Outlook
| Year | Age | PA | BB% | Runs | RBI | BA | OBP | SLG | wOBA |
| 2006 | 28 | 736 | 9.9% | 113 | 63 | .300 | .369 | .445 | .357 |
| 2007 | 29 | 642 | 8.6% | 87 | 47 | .270 | .333 | .355 | .311 |
| 2008 | 30 | 164 | 12.2% | 34 | 16 | .357 | .439 | .573 | .440 |
| 2009 | 31 | 680 | 9.0% | 92 | 47 | .269 | .335 | .375 | .316 |
| 2010 Projections - Age 32 Season | |||||||||
| Bill James | 643 | 9.3% | 94 | 50 | .278 | .346 | .391 | .329 | |
| CHONE | 625 | 9.3% | 89 | 47 | .274 | .344 | .389 | .328 | |
| Marcel | 556 | 9.2% | 76 | 44 | .273 | .341 | .391 | .325 | |
| Baseball HQ | 612 | 9.8% | 87 | 49 | .287 | .357 | .404 | ||
| ZiPS | 513 | 9.2% | 76 | 47 | .275 | .341 | .384 | ||
| (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill) | |||||||||
Furcal took the winter off this past off-season, rather than play Dominican winter ball, as has been his custom. This was done to allow his back to rest and continue to heal, but perhaps it will also give the Dodgers a fresher Furcal throughout the 2010 season. I am going to be optimistic and guess that he will get to enjoy a rare season in Los Angeles that is not dogged with injuries and have a quality year at the plate:
.282 / .357 / .399 with 645 PAs.
What are your predictions for Rafael Furcal (BA/OBP/SLG and Plate Appearances)?
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23 comments
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Comments
Clear some room on the bulletin board
Dodgers predicted to finish 3rd in NL West
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/fans-playoff-probabilities-nl-version
For what its worth
I believe this would be the last year the Dodgers can trade Furcal without him having an automatic no-trade clause, due to him being a 10/5 guy.
2012
I didn’t realize he had that 2012 option (triggered by 2011 PAs or combined 2009-11 PAs). The devil’s in the details I guess. With Dee Gordon probably ready to take over in 2012, I’m actively rooting for Furcal not to reach those incentive levels. Knowing this now, I suspect we’ll see Furcal rarely come out of a game, thereby decreasing any need for a true backup SS.
Dr. Neal ElAttrache has been a busy man
by Eric Stephen on Mar 16, 2010 9:49 AM PDT up reply actions
Spring Stats
Some heady numbers for Galvez and Songo to remember all summer. From the starting eight, the Blake’s are doing serious damage along with the starting outfield. Rafy and Loney on the outside looking in. Ellis doing what we expected, walks and singles and nothing else.
If we thought Juan Pierre was a lousy leadoff man what does that make Furcal?
Oops here is the link
sorted by Slug% for Galvez / Songco fans
by meercatjohn on Mar 16, 2010 10:05 AM PDT up reply actions
.295/.358/.390 620 PA
Leaving Raffy only 300 PA in 2011 away from the 1.3 million 2012 addition. If he gets to that but not to 600 is that the total to buy out the option. 14.3 mil (assuming he continues his core conditioning) seems like it would be a lot to pay a SS in his 34 year old year.
Upon rereading the 2012 option details, I slightly misunderstood them in my above comment. Evidently, the 2012 option is triggered only by the 2011 PAs. Right?
Yep
the 1600 PA from 2009-2011 only affect the buyout and/or 2012 salary.
by Eric Stephen on Mar 16, 2010 10:28 AM PDT up reply actions
if he does not get to 1600 PA (09-11) nor to 600 in 11 (granted an unlikely scenario)
is the buy out of the option 0?
Seems like a very convoluted contact.
by MammothDodger on Mar 16, 2010 10:47 AM PDT up reply actions
I love watching Raffy play D.
Not so much his bat, but his D is outstanding. Beside Chin Hu, who are our other ss? I wish this season would hurry up and start.
by Skunkburner on Mar 16, 2010 11:03 AM PDT via mobile reply actions
nick green
alferedo amezega angel berroa
by matthewmafa on Mar 16, 2010 11:35 AM PDT up reply actions
Ivan DeJesus, Jr.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
by David Young on Mar 16, 2010 12:30 PM PDT up reply actions
That's right.
I forgot about green. And for some reason I thought dejesus played 2nd only. Amezega and berroa don’t count. They won’t be on tbd team past this year.
by Skunkburner on Mar 16, 2010 2:45 PM PDT via mobile reply actions

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