Final Dodger Prospect Countdown: The top 10

After a little bit of a delay due to a crazy work schedule, I'm finally able to post my top 10 Dodger prospects heading into 2010.  Please keep in mind that I wrote the majority of these profiles prior spring training, so while I added a couple of notes relating to 2010 performances, this ranking is based on what these players did heading into the season.  There will probably be some disagreement with a few of the rankings, so please feel free to let me know what you think.  I spent a lot of time trying to fine tune this list, so I believe it is really representative of the best talent (in my opinion, of course).  Later this week or maybe next week I'll try to post a recap showing all 201 players so it will be easier to see where everyone ranks.  I'll also try to post everything all in one place on another personal website, and I'll post the link to that as well. 

10.  Jonathan Garcia, RF (41 games in Arizona League in 2009)

Drafted by Dodgers 2009, 8th round

5’11”, 175 lbs, 18.25 years old, bats right handed

.304 average, 3 HR’s, 21 RBI’s, 4 SB’s

Prior Year Ranking: N/A

The Dodgers drafted Jonathan Garcia out of Puerto Rico in the 8th round of the 2009 draft.  After the draft, Logan White said “He's a little raw right now but if he can utilize his talents we will have a pretty good player.”  Little did Logan know that Garcia would utilize his talents quicker than anyone expected.  Playing the entire 2009 season as a 17 year old, not only did Jonathan hold his own against older competition, but exceeded everyone’s expectations.  He hit .304 for the season, posted a .500 slugging percentage, and had an OPS of .862.  He also ranked fourth in the Arizona League with 16 doubles and even stole 4 bases without getting caught.  According to Baseball America, Garcia has outstanding raw power and is a smart hitter.  He can hit the ball to all fields, and as he grows and matures he will surely hit more home runs.  In fact, I expect Garcia to grow at least an inch or two over the next few years, and I see his ceiling a player who can hit 25 to 30 home runs annually.  In terms of his defense, Garcia is really good.  Even though he made 5 errors during his short 2009 season, I heard he has a hose for an arm and has great outfield instincts.  While he has the ability to play center field, he is probably best suited as a right fielder.  Because he is so young, I initially expected Garcia to play in the Pioneer League in 2010.  However Baseball America said that he is ready for the jump to LoA.  So I guess we’ll have to wait and see where he ends up.  No matter where he plays, the one thing that’s for sure is that he is a legitimate prospect who will be watched closely by Dodger management over the next few years.  I can see him potentially being a similar player to Raul Mondesi, but with less speed.

9.  Aaron Miller, LHP (30.3 innings in LoA, 5.7 innings in Arizona League in 2009)

Drafted by Dodgers 2009, 1st round

6’3”, 200 lbs, 22.5 years old

3-1, 2.75 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 12.00 K/9

Prior Year Ranking: N/A

When the Dodgers drafted Miller in the first round, I was both surprised and disappointed.  There were still many quality players available when Miller was picked, and honestly at the time I would have rather had players such as Tyler Skaggs, Brooks Pounders, or Kyle Heckathorn.  But after seeing Miller’s professional debut, it seems that Logan White made the right selection, who said after the draft “when we look back, we're going to say what a great deal we got with that sandwich pick.”  After initially struggling in the Arizona Rookie League, Miller dominated upon his promotion to the Midwest League.  Not only did succeed during his 7 regular season starts, but Miller also completely shut down the opposition during his 2 playoff starts for the Loons, allowing just one run and three hits in 12 innings.  Obviously impressed, the Dodgers sent Miller to the Arizona Fall League where he made three brief appearances before getting shut down for the season.  Besides his immediate success, two pluses for Miller are that he is still learning to pitch (so has the potential to get better), and the fact that he has a very fresh arm (since he didn’t pitch many college innings).  In terms of his stuff, Miller has a fastball that can occasional hit 95, although he usually sits between 91 and 92 mph.  He also has a hard slider, and is currently working on his changeup.  Even though Aaron has all these good things going for him, I still have some concerns.  I’m afraid that he won’t be able to match his success in 2010, but instead will struggle with the larger workload and tougher competition.  I’m also worried that he’ll never be able to master a third pitch, which will prohibit him from being a starter in the big leagues.  Nevertheless, I’m confident that Miller will have at the very least a relatively successful major league career.  Even if ends up in the bullpen, he has the stuff to be a very good reliever or setup man, potentially in the mold of Kuo or Sherrill.  He’ll most likely start in the California League in 2010, and I’m almost positive that he’ll make his way up to AA at some point during the season.

8.  Josh Lindblom, RHP (57.3 innings in AA, 39 innings in AAA in 2009)

Drafted by Dodgers 2008, 2nd round

6’5”, 240 lbs, 22.75 years old

6-5, 3.83 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 7.66 K/9

Prior Year Ranking: 6

Josh Lindblom has been on the fast track to the major leagues since the day he was drafted by the Dodgers.  He started his professional career in LoA, and made it all the way up to AA by the end of the 2008 season.  Then in March of 2009, less than 10 months after being drafted, Lindblom was in the Dodgers major league spring training and was actually in the mix to be the Dodgers 5th starter for the 2009 season.  While he didn’t end up making the team, he got a lot of publicity and became a household name among Dodger prospect junkies.  Back in the minors, Lindblom split 2009 between AA and AAA and posted solid results.  While his overall stats declined from 2008, his FIP was a respectable 3.50 and he posted a very strong walk rate.  In addition, he held opposing batters to a .245 batting average. The one thing that concerns me, however, is the fact that Lindblom’s strikeout rate dropped from 9.79 K’s per 9 in 2008 to 7.66 K’s per 9 in 2009.  The decrease is obviously due to the fact that he was facing more advanced competition in 2009, but even still I generally expect a strikeout rate of at least 8.0 from top pitching prospects.  At 6’5” and 240 lbs, Lindblom is a big kid.  He has two great pitches, a 95 mph fastball and a hard curve, and is still in the process of adding a third pitch.  For 2010, even though Lindblom is in big league camp and has impressed so far, I don’t believe he’ll make the opening day roster because the Dodgers have too many other options who are already on the 40 man roster.  In addition, because he seems to have a bright future with the team and will probably stick with the team once he is brought up to the show, the Dodgers will probably want to delay his major league debut until at least June to prevent him from potentially becoming a “super two”.  In regards to his future, I think Lindblom is best suited for the bullpen.  He was a closer at Purdue and has always had trouble with his stamina as a starter.  In addition, his two pitches mentioned above are both plus pitches when he doesn’t have to worry about going deep into games.  Therefore, I believe that he has the potential to become a top tier setup man or solid closer at the big league level. 

7.  Nathan Eovaldi, RHP (96.3 innings in LoA in 2009)

Drafted by Dodgers 2008, 11th round

6’3”, 195 lbs, 20 years old

3-5, 3.27 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 6.63 K/9

Prior Year Ranking: 12

I have to admit; Nathan Eovaldi is my favorite Dodger prospect, and that is one of the reasons why I’ve ranked him higher than most other Dodger prospect lists.  Even though I have never seen him pitch in person, I just love the fact that he throws straight heat, is still so young, and has a very projectable frame.  In addition, during the 2009 season he still probably wasn’t even fully recovered from his 2007 Tommy John surgery, so I only expect him to get better.  Now I realize that most people will look at Eovaldi’s stats and immediately point to his low strikeout rate.  I know that I would if I didn’t know anything else about him because strikeouts usually say a lot about how dominate a pitcher can be.  But unlike my concerns with Lindblom, I’m really not too worried about Eovaldi’s strikeout rate because he is still so young and has so many years to improve.  Heck, he was only 19 years old during the entire 2009 season, and only had 8 innings of professional experience prior to that, so I’m sure he is still getting used to the minor leagues.  Another thing I want to point out about Eovaldi is the fact that from June forward, he was absolutely spectacular.  His ERA through his final 62 innings of the season was 1.60, and he only allowed 1 home run during that time period.  He also tacked on another scoreless inning during the Midwest League playoffs in which he struck out the side. In terms of his pitches, Eovaldi sits in the mid 90’s, and hit 98 mph last season.  Some scouts project that he may be able to hit 100 mph if the Dodgers decide to use him out of the bullpen.  He also has a solid curveball, but it is inconsistent.  I’ve heard mixed reports about him using a slider.  Some say he stopped using it because it led to his TJ surgery.  However, in listening to Loons games during the year, I’ve heard the announcers say he has a slider in the high 80’s, and that it is a very good pitch.  In addition, he is developing a changeup.  Overall, whether Nathan ends up as a starter or in the bullpen, I’m expecting big things out of him.  I’m guessing the Dodgers will continue to use him as a starter because that is where he is most valuable, but I can also see him as a solid closer one day.  I’m hoping that Eovaldi plays in Inland Empire next season so I can get a chance to watch my favorite Dodger prospect live.

6.  Scott Elbert, LHP (62.3 innings in AA, 33.7 innings in AAA in 2009)

Drafted by Dodgers 2004, 1st round

6’1”, 215 lbs, 24.5 years old

4-4, 3.84 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 11.72 K/9

Prior Year Ranking: 4

Scott Elbert was a first round draft pick back in 2004.  At the time, he was fresh out of high school and was actually better known for his performance as a running back as he ran for 2,449 yards and scored 36 touchdowns as a junior.  Six years later, Elbert is 24 years old and is now entering his prime.  He is coming off a solid season in which he made 19 appearances out of the Dodgers bullpen and was named the Dodgers minor league pitcher of the year.  His 11.72 strikeouts per 9 innings while in the minors ranked 3rd among all Dodgers minor leaguers, and while his minor league ERA was 3.84, his combined minor league FIP was a sparkling 3.14.  He can consistently pitch at 93-94 mph, and his sharp slider is a very strong pitch.  The one thing he needs to work on is his control, which seems to get away from him when he gets excited or is in a pressure situation.  Heading into the 2010 season, Elbert tried to work his way onto the Dodgers opening day roster, but he was recently sent back down to minor league camp.  In my opinion, while he has struggled thus far this spring, he was the Dodgers best option as their #5 starter because he has the most upside of all the candidates and is already on the 40 man roster.  However, it also makes sense to keep him down in the minors for a while longer since other players fighting for the 5th spot in the rotation are out of options.  In terms of his long term projection, while some like him as a reliever, I see Elbert strictly as a starter because his raw stuff is just too good to waste in the bullpen.  Overall, while he doesn’t seem to have the upside that he once did, Elbert does appear to be maturing into a very strong pitcher.  Even if he does end up spending some of the 2010 season in the minors, I believe Elbert will provide the Dodgers will many solid innings for years to come.

5.  Garrett Gould, RHP (2.7 innings in Pioneer League in 2009)

Drafted by Dodgers 2009, 2nd round

6’4”, 190 lbs, 18.5 years old

0-1, 10.12 ERA, 2.25 WHIP, 13.50 K/9

Prior Year Ranking: N/A

Garrett Gould is by far my favorite pick of the 2009 draft.  When I heard that we selected Gould in the 2nd round with the 65th overall pick, I was ecstatic.  I had thought that he would go at the very latest in the supplemental first round, so it has a huge plus that he was still available to us that late.  However, even after we drafted Gould I knew it wasn’t a given that he would sign because he had strong commitment to Wichita State.  After the draft, he said “It's always been my dream to play at Wichita State…Especially knowing what coach (Brent) Kemnitz does with his pitchers.”  I addition, the Dodgers aren’t know for giving bonuses higher than the recommended amount.  Luckily, everything fell into place right at the signing deadline and the Dodgers signed Gould to $900K signing bonus, which was actually about $10K more than they gave to their top pick Aaron Miller.  Because he signed so late, Gould only made three appearances in the Pioneer League.  Even though he got hit hard, the important thing is that he got his feet wet.  In addition, he showed some dominance in his three outings by recording half of his outs via the strikeout.  In terms of his stuff, Gould throws in the low 90’s, but I expect his velocity to increase as he gets older (he won’t even turn 19 until this upcoming July) and grows into his projectable frame.  He also is learning how to throw a changeup, but it is still a work in progress.  My favorite thing about Gould, however, is his curveball.  Scouts describe it as a plus pitch, and many thought that he had the best high school curveball in the entire 2009 draft.  While I’ve only seen limited footage of Gould, I picture his curveball as a right handed version Kershaw’s.  I believe his overall potential is a #1 or #2 starter at the big league level.  He is a very athletic player (he was a quarterback in football and a forward in basketball) and has a ton of talent.  In 2010, I believe the Dodgers will challenge Gould with an assignment to LoA.  Even though the Loons rotation will be crowded, I think he’ll be used similarly to how Nathan Eovaldi was used during 2009.  I look forward to following him throughout next season and I really think he’ll be a unanimous top 5 Dodger prospect by this time next year.

4.  Andrew Lambo, LF (130 games in AA in 2009)

Drafted by Dodgers 2007, 4th round

6’3”, 190 lbs, 21.5 years old, bats left handed

.256 average, 11 HR’s, 61 RBI’s, 4 SB’s

Prior Year Ranking: 2

I really like Andrew Lambo.  At 6’3” and 190 lbs, Lambo has an advanced feel for hitting and has a smooth left-handed stroke.  Despite his “down” year and the fact that a lot of people jumped off of his bandwagon, I still think that Lambo is an excellent player with a ton of potential.  In my mind, he is in a great position to take over left field for the Dodgers in 2012 (the Dodgers will have to find a short term solution for 2011), and will eventually hit.300 with around 25 HR’s at the big league level.  To support these predictions, I will point to a few signs that demonstrate Lambo’s future success.  First, Lambo seems to have a good head on his shoulders, and in watching a few of his interviews he already appears to have the personality of a big league player.  Sure he had some trouble in high school, but I really think he grew from that experience and has turned into a strong leader.  Second, at 21 years old Lambo is still very young, yet has been playing against much older competition throughout his professional career.  This experience should prepare him for the future, and should also give him the edge next year in AA when he finally catches up to the other players in terms of age.  Third, even though Lambo only had 11 HR’s in 2009, he had 39 doubles, which tied for the second most in the entire Dodgers minor league system.  As most people know, doubles for a young player generally turn into HR’s when that player matures and gets older.  So that is why I expect him to have a decent amount of power in the big leagues.   Finally, Lambo was sent to the Arizona Fall League after the season, and did very well against some of the minor league’s best pitching prospects.  Through 77 at bats, Lambo hit .325 and had an .846 OPS.  So I don’t sound biased, I should point out that there are a few things that Lambo is not great at.  He is not a fast runner, which limits him defensively to left field or first base.  While some scouts think he’ll eventually end up at 1st base, I’m confident that he is good enough to stay in left field.  In addition, Lambo needs to work on his patience at the plate as he walked in less than 8% of his plate appearances in 2009.  Overall, as I’ve already mentioned, I expect big things from Lambo in a few years.  I also expect him to thrive in AA during the upcoming season, which will bring his prospect status back up to where it was a year ago. 

3.  Ethan Martin, RHP (100 innings in LoA in 2009)

Drafted by Dodgers 2008, 1st round

6’2”, 195 lbs, 20.75 years old

6-8, 3.87 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 10.80 K/9

Prior Year Ranking: 3

The Dodgers 1st round pick in the 2008 draft, Ethan Martin injured his knee in a fielding drill before he as ever able to make a start.  Even though the injury wasn’t too serious, it worried a lot of people because the Dodgers had just invested a lot of money into the young player.  Luckily he made full recovery by the beginning of the 2009 season, and was placed in LoA where he pitched an even 100 innings and did very well.  While his record and ERA were just mediocre, his FIP of 3.45 was very good and his strikeout rate of 10.8 K’s per 9 innings was outstanding.  In addition, opposing batters only hit .232 against him.  The one thing that he had trouble with was his control as he walked 5.5 batters per 9 innings, which led to his inflated WHIP.  Going back to high school credentials, Martin was named as the Baseball America High School Player of the Year in 2008 because he was an amazing two way player.  His overall pitching stats as a senior were 11-1 with a 0.99 ERA and 141 K’s in 79 innings, but he was also a great power hitting 3rd baseman.  He ended up being the first high school pitcher selected in the 2008 draft, which says a lot about how much the Dodgers thought of his arm.  On the mound, Martin has a very strong fastball that has good movement and can reach all the way up to 97 mph.  His curveball is also a plus pitch, but he needs to control it better.  Overall, I believe that Martin has the ability to be a #2 starter at the big league level, and I am very confident that he’ll reach his full potential.  He is just 20 years old, and his path will probably lead him to Hi-A in 2010 with a promotion to AA late in the season.  He’ll then probably split 2011 between AA and AAA, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he was ready for the major leagues in some capacity in 2012.

2.  Chris Withrow, RHP (86.3 innings in HiA, 27.3 innings in AA in 2009)

Drafted by Dodgers 2007, 1st round

6’3”, 195 lbs, 21 years old

8-8, 4.51 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 10.37 K/9

Prior Year Ranking: 8

Heading into 2009, Chris Withrow had only pitched 13 professional innings over a two year period.  This was mostly due to various injuries, including a deep cut to his hand and a case of “tired arm”.  While nobody had completely written him off, this caused some people to wonder if he was bound to be a 1st round bust.  However, Withrow really turned things around last season, getting some much needed experience in the process.  He played most of the 2009 season in the hitters’ paradise known as the California League, but Withrow held his own while he was there and really showed why he as a first round pick.  While his ERA and WHIP in HiA were just mediocre, his FIP was 2.96 and he almost struck out 11 batters per inning.  His success while with the 66ers earned Withrow a promotion to AA in August, and he finished the season there.  Even though he wasn’t quite as dominant with the Lookouts (3.68 FIP, 8.6 K/9), he still had a very fine showing for a 20 year old playing against older competition.  Coming out of high school, Withrow was considered and excellent athlete.  As a high school senior, he consistently hit 92-94 mph on the radar gun and had a very promising curveball.  Since turning pro, however, Withrow has actually been clocked as high as 99 mph. He also is developing a changeup, has a very clean delivery, and is the perfect size for a pitcher at 6’3”.  The one thing he wants to work on his control, as said after the season “I would like to find my command a little bit—of course, everybody would—but that's just going to come with more time on the mound. It's all just a big process right now.”  In my opinion, Withrow projects as a #1 or solid #2 starter.  Even though I believe a few pitchers in the Dodgers system have higher ceilings than Withrow, Chris ranks as the Dodgers second best prospect because I feel he is more likely to reach his full potential than those other pitchers (as demonstrated by this spring training debut where he struck out the side).  2010 will be a big season for Withrow as he’ll return to AA.  If he has another solid season, he could be on track to break into the big leagues by 2011.

1.  Dee Gordon, SS (131 games in LoA in 2009)

Drafted by Dodgers 2008, 4th round

5’11”, 150 lbs, 21.75 years old, bats left handed

.301 average, 3 HR’s 35 RBI’s, 73 SB’s

Prior Year Ranking: 9

When the Dodgers selected Dee Gordon in the 4th round of the 2008 draft, most people were very surprised.  He had been academically ineligible to play at the Community College he was attending, so there were very few scouting reports on him.  Nevertheless, the Dodgers decided to take a chance on the son of major league veteran Tom “Flash” Gordon because they love players who have major league bloodlines.  Jump forward one and a half years and Gordon has shot up the prospect charts and is basically the Dodgers unanimous number one prospect.  He was the Midwest League MVP and was named the Dodger minor league player of the year.  As there have already been many discussions and scouting reports on Dee Gordon, I really won’t spend too much time describing him as a player.  However, I will mention a few things about Gordon that caused me to rank him #1 on my personal list.  First, Gordon is still growing as a baseball player as it appears that he is not yet close to reaching his full potential.  His on field instincts are still being refined as a shortstop, as a hitter, and as a base runner, so it will be very exciting to see what kind of player he turns out to be once he gets more experience.  Second, Gordon plays the premium position of shortstop, and is expected to stick there throughout his professional career.  While many players start out at shortstop, most move off the position as they move up through the minors.  Gordon, however, is projected to be a premium defender once he gets more experience because he has amazing range and a strong arm.  I’m not too worried about the 34 errors he made in 2009 because he just needs more experience at the position.  Finally, Gordon has the one tool that you can’t teach: speed.  He is exceptionally fast, and even though his base stealing skills need some improvement (he was caught 25 times in 2009), he has the type of game changing speed that will allow him to get tons of infield hits each season (a la Ichiro) and be a distraction to opposing pitchers on the base paths.  The one thing I’m not sure about is Gordon’s power potential.  Most scouts seem to think that he’ll develop some pop once he gains so weight, but after watching Gordon in some videos on Dodgers.com, I just don’t see him ever hitting more than a couple home runs a year.  He won’t need that power, however, because as mentioned he has plenty of other tools.  Hopefully he’ll play locally with the 66ers in 2010 so I can get a chance to watch him in person prior to him taking over as the Dodgers starting shortstop in 2012.