2009 NL West Run Differential
First I want to say hello. This is my first post. In fact I haven't made a comment yet. But I've been reading this blog every day since the end of the 2009 season. Great community, I look forward to becoming a part of it.
After watching the Dodgers 30/30 Today. And being frustrated for the countless time. About national coverage of the Dodgers, specifically they're starting rotation. I decided to go check out some of the stats from 2009, which I had already looked at before, but it's been a while. After looking around for a while I noticed a few things. Particularly some eerily similar numbers with the Giants. LA and SF both had the same runs allowed 611 walks allowed 584 and GO/FO 1.14 LA had 27 more innings pitched, but it still struck me as odd. Most of the other pitching stats are also very close, as i'm sure most of you know. I was surprised that they had walked as many batters, I guess I over looked that before. Again this just frustrated my more because we always hear how great the Giants pitching is and how many questions there are with the Dodgers. I realize some of this is because the the Giants got more innings out their main starters and we had a lot of bull pen innings, But some times I just think does it matter who allows the runs to score. The run doesn't care how it got on the board. I know this isn't always true on an in game basis, but it over the coarse of a season.... I don't know. Any way to my point some where along the way I started thinking about run differential. I knew the Dodgers had a good one, I think i've even heard best in the NL. But I thought I'd check out the other teams in the NL west last season. These are my calculations and they could be wrong, but I double checked them and they seem about right.
These are per game. LA 1.04, COL 0.55, SF 0.23, AZ -0.39, SD -0.81.
I like run differential because it show a good contrast of the overall abilities of a team to me. I know there have been roster changes and injuries can always effect things. But I feel for the most part the west in unchanged. When I look at the Rockies run differential it looks like they got lucky in the last 2/3s of 2009. I don't know if that record is sustainable. As for Arizona they probably underperformed last year. But even IF they get Web back at something close to his old self I don't know if they are consistent enough to give us a real push. Clearly San Fran just doesn't have the offense and SD is a AAAA team with some descent upside. We'll see how it all plays out I can't wait. GO BLUE!
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The Dodgers did get a career year out of the departed Randy Wolf. His ostensible replacement, Padilla is a wild card, so that a pretty big potential difference for the Dodgers right there, but since AZ needs Webb to get healthy, and CO is counting a Jeff Francis comeback, Jason Hammel being real, and Jorge De La Rosa not sucking, I can see several NL West teams being in a similar boat. If any team improved their offense, it might be AZ.
1.04 R/G seems like a whopping run differential.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
True, about Wolf
But I don’t think anyone expected that kind of performance out of him. I don’t expect Padilla to repeat a similar line to what he had in L.A. last year. You never know though, he does have good stuff. And we didn’t get a ton out of Kuroda last year. He could be a difference maker if he can stay healthy. None of our starters have really long proven track records of consistent success and or health. But we all know they are capable of it. The same can be said about most of the other starters in our division. Right now the state of our bullpen is my biggest concern, although I don’t think it will be a problem.I don’t think Colorado can repeat that win percentage seems to me like they got a little lucky. I really don’t think they should be the favorite. I think Arizona will have a better year. Even without Web. Adam LaRoche should help and I think they’re offense under performed last year as a whole. I still don’t think they will really contend unless they get a great year out of Web. Which looks unlikely at the moment. That’s why they play the games though I can’t wait for the season to start. So I can stop guessing and just see it all unfold.
I'm not expecting 2009 Wolf-like numbers from 2010 Padilla
But I’m expecting one of Padilla’s better years finally being in a pitchers park. He’s got a lively fastball and really nice curve ball from what I’ve seen. I’m not sure of his other stuff, but if it’s average then Padilla has a shot to be at least average, or hopefully better than average. Either way, the Giants are the only team with a shot at having a better rotation, and they still may not even be better by the end of 2010 if Billingsley pitches like first half of 2009 Billingsley.

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