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2009 NL West Run Differential


First I want to say hello. This is my first post. In fact I haven't made a comment yet. But I've been reading this blog every day since the end of the 2009 season. Great community, I look forward to becoming a part of it.

After watching the Dodgers 30/30 Today. And being frustrated for the countless time. About national coverage of the Dodgers, specifically they're starting rotation. I decided to go check out some of the stats from 2009, which I had already looked at before, but it's been a while. After looking around for a while I noticed a few things. Particularly some eerily similar numbers with the Giants. LA and SF both had the same runs allowed 611 walks allowed 584 and GO/FO 1.14 LA had 27 more innings pitched, but it still struck me as odd. Most of the other pitching stats are also very close, as i'm sure most of you know. I was surprised that they had walked as many batters, I guess I over looked that before. Again this just frustrated my more because we always hear how great the Giants pitching is and how many questions there are with the Dodgers. I realize some of this is because the the Giants got more innings out their main starters and we had a lot of bull pen innings, But some times I just think does it matter who allows the runs to score. The run doesn't care how it got on the board. I know this isn't always true on an in game basis, but it over the coarse of a season.... I don't know. Any way to my point some where along the way I started thinking about run differential. I knew the Dodgers had a good one, I think i've even heard best in the NL. But I thought I'd check out the other teams in the NL west last season. These are my calculations and they could be wrong, but I double checked them and they seem about right.

These are per game. LA 1.04, COL 0.55, SF 0.23, AZ -0.39, SD -0.81.

I like run differential because it show a good contrast of the overall abilities of a team to me. I know there have been roster changes and injuries can always effect things. But I feel for the most part the west in unchanged. When I look at the Rockies run differential it looks like they got lucky in the last 2/3s of 2009. I don't know if that record is sustainable. As for Arizona they probably underperformed last year. But even IF they get Web back at something close to his old self I don't know if they are consistent enough to give us a real push.  Clearly San Fran just doesn't have the offense and SD is a AAAA team with some descent upside. We'll see how it all plays out I can't wait. GO BLUE!

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The Dodgers did get a career year out of the departed Randy Wolf. His ostensible replacement, Padilla is a wild card, so that a pretty big potential difference for the Dodgers right there, but since AZ needs Webb to get healthy, and CO is counting a Jeff Francis comeback, Jason Hammel being real, and Jorge De La Rosa not sucking, I can see several NL West teams being in a similar boat. If any team improved their offense, it might be AZ.

1.04 R/G seems like a whopping run differential.

The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.

by David Young on Mar 20, 2010 7:26 PM PDT reply actions  

… but I double-checked your math and it is correct.

The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.

by David Young on Mar 20, 2010 7:26 PM PDT up reply actions  

True, about Wolf

But I don’t think anyone expected that kind of performance out of him. I don’t expect Padilla to repeat a similar line to what he had in L.A. last year. You never know though, he does have good stuff. And we didn’t get a ton out of Kuroda last year. He could be a difference maker if he can stay healthy. None of our starters have really long proven track records of consistent success and or health. But we all know they are capable of it. The same can be said about most of the other starters in our division. Right now the state of our bullpen is my biggest concern, although I don’t think it will be a problem.I don’t think Colorado can repeat that win percentage seems to me like they got a little lucky. I really don’t think they should be the favorite. I think Arizona will have a better year. Even without Web. Adam LaRoche should help and I think they’re offense under performed last year as a whole. I still don’t think they will really contend unless they get a great year out of Web. Which looks unlikely at the moment. That’s why they play the games though I can’t wait for the season to start. So I can stop guessing and just see it all unfold.

by CTBMikeD on Mar 21, 2010 5:06 PM PDT reply actions  

I'm not expecting 2009 Wolf-like numbers from 2010 Padilla

But I’m expecting one of Padilla’s better years finally being in a pitchers park. He’s got a lively fastball and really nice curve ball from what I’ve seen. I’m not sure of his other stuff, but if it’s average then Padilla has a shot to be at least average, or hopefully better than average. Either way, the Giants are the only team with a shot at having a better rotation, and they still may not even be better by the end of 2010 if Billingsley pitches like first half of 2009 Billingsley.

by Ivdown on Mar 22, 2010 10:05 AM PDT reply actions  

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2012 Dodgers Payroll

Italics denote estimates
Pos No Player 2012 Salary
C 17 Ellis $500,000 team control
1B 7 Loney $6,375,000
2B 14 Ellis $2,500,000
3B 5 Uribe $8,000,000
SS 9 Gordon $485,000 team control
LF 21 Rivera $4,000,000
CF 27 Kemp $10,000,000
RF 16 Ethier $10,950,000

IF/OF 6 Hairston $2,250,000
OF 10 Gwynn $850,000
2B/3B 3 Kennedy $800,000
C 18 Treanor $850,000
IF 12 Sellers $485,000 team control

SP 22 Kershaw $6,000,000
SP 58 Billingsley $9,000,000
SP 29 Lilly $12,000,000
SP 35 Capuano $3,000,000
SP 44
Harang $3,000,000

CL 54 Guerra $485,000 team control
RHP 74
Jansen $500,000 team control
RHP 55 Guerrier $4,750,000
RHP 60 Coffey $1,000,000
RHP 66 MacDougal $650,000
LHP 57 Elbert $485,000 team control
RHP 36
Hawksworth $500,000 team control

TJ 41 De La Rosa $485,000 team control



Manny $8,087,432 deferred


Andruw $3,375,000 deferred


Pierre $3,050,000 deferred
Furcal $3,000,000 deferred
Kuroda $2,000,000 deferred
Garland $1,500,000 option buyout
Blake $1,250,000 option buyout

Totals
$112,162,432

For more detailed information, click here.

Players on 40-man roster used as roster
fillers until moves are made.

Current 40-man roster count: 40
(not including Belisario)

2012 Non-Roster Invitees

No Player Age*
63 Jose Ascanio rhp
27
61 Alberto Castillo lhp
36
56 Matt Chico lhp
29
33 John Grabow lhp
33
59 Angel Guzman rhp
30
47 Wil Ledezma lhp
31
72 Shane Lindsay rhp
27
62 Fernando Nieve rhp 29
73 Scott Rice lhp 30
70 Will Savage rhp
27
71 Ryan Tucker rhp
25
28 Jamey Wright rhp
37

30 Josh Bard c 34
82 Griff Erickson c 24
81 Matt Wallachc 26
67 Jeff Baisley 3b/1b 29
65 Luis Cruz ss/2b 28
37 Josh Fields 3b 29
64 Lance Zawadzki if 27
56 Cory Sullivan of 32

*Age on June 30, 2012

NRI count: 20

For more info, click here.


Manager

Eric___ned___reporters_2011_trade_deadline_small Eric Stephen

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100_1427_small Phil Gurnee

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Hanauma_bay_small Chad Moriyama

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