Spring Training Highs and Lows
by meercatjohn on Mar 23, 2010 11:54 AM PDT
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With less then two weeks to go until the opening bell who has been impressive and unimpressive so far. Yes I know spring training stats don't matter unless your name is Elbert and McDonald but we can take a look and see some trends besides averages and such.
Here are the Dodger spring training stats
Let us start with the two biggest question marks.
Blake DeWitt started out in a two person battle with Belliard but it was apparent from the get go that management was going to give DeWitt a chance to prove himself. Offensively he has been up to the task and more. He leads the team with plate appearances, hits, total bases, runs scored. Among the expected starting eight he also leads in batting average. More important then average and hits are the power and patience he is showing. Since DeWitt is starting just about every game he's doing this against the other teams expected rotational members and not against minor leaguers. With six walks in 45 plate appearances he continues a trend I expect to continue into the regular season which will be a 80-100 point spread between his average and his OBP. If DeWitt only hits .260 I still think he has a chance to have at least an average OB%. His power this spring is also noteworthy with five XBH in 14 hits. No doubt Blake DeWitt will not continue to have a plus .990 OPS but I do think he is very capable of giving us the .750 - .780 OPS that we need from him.
AJ Ellis has always been a walk machine and many have stated that once he hit the majors that one skill would quickly find itself wanting since his lack of power would find him getting challenged. Well if you have been watching or listening to the games you might have noticed something. AJ Ellis is always on base. He leads the team in walks with eight even though he has only had the 6th most plate appearances in camp. He has as many hits as walks fueling his .471 OBP. He also continues to prove he has no power with only one XBH. AJ Ellis may not have the bat for a starting catcher but he has looked to me like a man who is ready to be a very solid backup catcher. I think this is the last year we bring in an outside person to be Martins caddy. AJ Ellis is ready for the gig.
Rafy Furcal is still not hitting but at least he is walking which may be more important. Once upon a time Rafy owned some plate discipline and as recently as 2008 it was a big part of his game.
Garrett Anderson is doing what he has always done, swing the bat. No walks but eight hits in 20 at bats. He is what he is. Barring injury Garrett has made this team.
While Belliard struggles, Jamie Carroll has his stroke going and leads the guys expected to be on the team with a .474 OBP.
Twto kids drafted in 2009 had some fun in big league camp. Cavazos-Galvez had one at bat and hit a booming home run. So he gets to end his 2010 spring training major league games with a 4.0 Slug%. Doesn't get any better then that for a guy who may never get a single major league at bat in his career. Trying to keep up was Mario Songco who slugged a double and home run in his three at bats.
None of the regulars other then Furcal are struggling, the bats look ready for the start of the season.
Now let us have some fun with the pitching.
Ramon Ortiz has struck out 17 in 13 innings of work and he's doing that against starting lineups for the most part. The next closest is Kershaw with 10 and Russ Ortiz with 10. That is alot of strikeouts for Ramon Ortiz. It is so many strikeouts he is 2nd in major league baseball. Heads are being scratched everywhere because most of the other names in the top 9 are guys who are expected to be big contributors to their teams this year. Go figure
The guys battling for the number five spot all have sterling whips. Led by the Monk at .092, Ramon Ortiz at 1.03, Eric Stults at 1.13, and Russ Ortiz at 1.15. These guys are doing what they need to do. They might all be pumpkins but so far they are magnificent in March.
Then you have Elbert and McDonald the past two winners of the Dodger Minor League Pitcher of the Year award pitching like you would have expected the Ortiz's to pitch. McDonald gave up 14 hits in five innings and won't get another chance to improve on those numbers. They stunk. They be pitching in AAA.
Chris Withrow has added some excitement to camp and made me feel good at the same time. When Baseball HQ excluded WIthrow from their top 100 we had a heated debate about his future. Watching him strike out five of the seven hitters he has face with ZERO walks left not only me but all of TBLA, and Joe Torre wanting more.
Josh Lindblom may not have the shiny star of Withrow but he has done what Elbert and McDonald couldn't. Throw strikes and get people out.
Kuo appears like he's ready after giving us a scare in Taiwan and maybe just maybe Belisario will show this week.
The most important thing that has happened so far this spring is that other then the Martin injury we have come to March 23rd unscathed.
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Re AJ Ellis
Couldn’t have summed it up better myself. I really wanted him to be the backup THIS year but the Dodgers couldn’t resist having a veteran backup again and at least Ausmus is familiar with the team. Well, if/when Ausmus gets banged up we know Ellis can handle the gig, especially after he fills in a bit more for Martin. And soon HE will be a veteran so the Dodgers will have no real excuse for having him be that guy next year. He’s not gonna do a ton with the bat, but will get on base, get some hits and just as importantly is very good behind the plate.
There's no need to fear, Underdog is here! / Broncos/Dodgers/Lakers fan in Niners/Raiders/Giants/Warriors country, and damned proud of it.
Current roster number?
Anybody know the current spring training roster? I count 39 but I’m not sure if my list is accurate or not.
Yeah, it’s 39 plus Wade and Belisario, for a total of 41. 12 NRIs and 29 guys on the 40-man.
by Eric Stephen on Mar 24, 2010 8:04 AM PDT up reply actions
True
but I thought we had a lot of DeWitt naysayers here. Maybe they moved on with Andrew who continues to drive that bus. I think the odds of DeWitt being better then LaRoche is growing which is quite amazing given the differences in their minor league work.
Is the book closed on LaRoche?
His 95 OPS+ was barely enough to keep him out of the bottom quarter of 3B batting title qualfiers, and his UZR of 5.3 was middle of the pack.
I agree with about the odds growing though. DeWitt is younger, which also matters; LaRoche is entering his age-26 season.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
Link for UZR
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=3b&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=y&type=0&season=2009&month=0
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
I think Laroche will eventually become a 20 homerun 30-35 double hitter with good 3B defense, but that’s a few years off.
He's only allowed to play for the Pirates before he retires? ;-)
(I could see them trading him when Alvarez is ready) Maybe another reuniting with his brother, wherever Adam is by that point.
There's no need to fear, Underdog is here! / Broncos/Dodgers/Lakers fan in Niners/Raiders/Giants/Warriors country, and damned proud of it.
Laroche ended the year strong at least
OPS of .911 to end the year. Maybe he trends upward?
Even in a best case scenario for DeWitt this year (while still being realistic) he would likely finish in the bottom quartile of third basemen. What seperates DeWitt will be his ability to play 2B.
by Michael White on Mar 23, 2010 2:55 PM PDT up reply actions
Worth nothing but
LaRoche is stinking it up at the plate this spring:
.194 / .242 / .323 / .565, with 1 jack, 2 BB and 8 K.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
Is he their starter? Or is he competing with somebody?
by Michael White on Mar 23, 2010 3:04 PM PDT up reply actions
starter until pedro alvarez
then starter again when they find out pedro alvarez can’t play third
by Chad Moriyama on Mar 23, 2010 3:12 PM PDT up reply actions
i hope as much as anyone the Dewitt is deAnswer in 201 at 2nd, but
the question was
Who will continue to have the same success during the season they have shown this spring?
do any of those 75 and counting voters really think he can do .368/.467/.632 an OPS 0f 1.099!!! I guess hoe really does spring eternal.
complete typing fail
hope springs eternal, not hoe
by MammothDodger on Mar 23, 2010 1:48 PM PDT up reply actions
I didn't interpret the poll question to mean the given player
has to do EXACTLY like they are doing in the spring. I took it more vaguely than that - i.e., I think DeWitt will hit pretty solidly, that’s it. i don’t think he’ll OPS over a 1000! ;)
Do people voting Ramon Ortiz think he’ll have a 1.38 ERA this season for the Dodgers?
There's no need to fear, Underdog is here! / Broncos/Dodgers/Lakers fan in Niners/Raiders/Giants/Warriors country, and damned proud of it.
Stupid cross out function
sentence above reads: i.e., I think DeWitt will hit pretty solidly, that’s it. i don’t think he’ll OPS over a 1000! ;)
There's no need to fear, Underdog is here! / Broncos/Dodgers/Lakers fan in Niners/Raiders/Giants/Warriors country, and damned proud of it.
i do not think it is meant to be exact either
but at least some semblance of the season stats, which is why I voted Stults who in his time as the 5th starter will probably be around a 5 ERA with a whip of at lease 1.200 and a k rate of 4 per 9
by MammothDodger on Mar 23, 2010 1:59 PM PDT up reply actions
Hard to have an
ERA of 5.00 and a WHIP of 1.20. One is bad, the other is good. Can’t have it both ways.
had to hit and run post earlier today
to go watch my son play his HS game (they lost, actually took a beating)
but I do know that a whip of 1.2 and an era of 5 are pretty incompatible, that is why i said at least 1.20. I was just using his current ST stats to project to the real season and defend a vote for the one I hope gets the 5th rotation spot to start the season, and holds it until Ned sells the farm for (fill in the bank) at the trade deadline.
Also I really never like none of the above as the right answer. (all pumpknis)
by MammothDodger on Mar 23, 2010 10:24 PM PDT up reply actions
I hope they didn't take the question literally
It should be taken as can each of those players maintain enough success to be a plus to the team. Even with that caveat I would be more likely to vote for Pumpkins. I feel quite sure that Ramon, Russ, and Stults if given the number five job will not have it by June 15th.
As much as I like DeWitt it is is still a longshot that he can produce the .780 OPS he needs to.
AJ Ellis could easily get figured out very quickly by good major league pitchers.
The poll doesn't allow more than one answer
But I think two players will maintain more-or-less their good showing throughout the season – DeWitt and Ellis. I have to pick just one of them?
The First Cut Is The Deepest, but this is the most unkindest cut of all
http://www.deartommyjohnletters.com/2010/03/dodger-blues.html
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
Can they hire him to do
writing for the team’s web site or blog? He’d be better than anyone else they have!
There's no need to fear, Underdog is here! / Broncos/Dodgers/Lakers fan in Niners/Raiders/Giants/Warriors country, and damned proud of it.
I believe I saw him pitch his final time in a Dodger uniform, on Friday. I didn’t get a chance to say hello. :(
by Eric Stephen on Mar 23, 2010 2:27 PM PDT up reply actions
If you saw someone wearing a shirt that said:
“Undefeated 2007-2008 Patriots 19-0 Super Bowl Champs”
What would you think about that person?
They buy t-shirts from overseas liquidators?
by Michael White on Mar 23, 2010 2:45 PM PDT up reply actions
I would think they were from Ethiopia
by Eric Stephen on Mar 23, 2010 2:52 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
That got me thinking
I would love to have a Laker three-peat shirt from 1989
by Eric Stephen on Mar 23, 2010 2:53 PM PDT up reply actions
I had a Lakers 5 rings in the 80s tee-shirt.
I still have a 1988 World Champion Dodgers tee-shirt and sweatshirt. I broke out the sweatshirt for LCS Game 4 in 2008. I did not wear it either playoff game I attended (both game twos) in 2009.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
LOL
exactly. I know someone who wore that shirt and another person just couldn’t understand why, and wouldn’t get it after 30 minutes of explaining the joke to him.
The latter actually happened (in my mind). I think the former still has a chance to happen.
by Eric Stephen on Mar 23, 2010 3:06 PM PDT up reply actions
Stults being the 5th starter in 2010, in the same way as JMac was the 5th starter in 2009, has a chance of happening. But Torre has never been patient with Stults and I would be very surprised if Stults is the 5th starter past the middle of May.
by Michael White on Mar 23, 2010 3:07 PM PDT up reply actions
Yeah
It’s going to be a revolving door all year I think.
by Eric Stephen on Mar 23, 2010 3:11 PM PDT up reply actions
I voted DeWitt
not to carry his ST performance into the season, but I’d put him down for .270/.345/.425 with slightly below average defense at 2B.
Though I don’t have too much faith in Ramon O., based on what I’ve read said about him, what he’s said about what he learned in Japan, and a handful of good ST innings, I could see a revival, and I wouldn’t be surprised at this point if he’s this year’s Park/Weaver. Solid but not spectacular, 4.15 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, in the running for CBPOTY if he somehow ends up getting many starts.
Stults could be surprisingly good if given the chance to go wire to wire as a starter for the first time ever.
If the division is anywhere near as competitive as it looks to be, I see Ned panicking in June or July, making a trade, and neither of those guys picking up any starts down the stretch.
Scott Erickson had a 2.10 ERA in 30 spring innings in 2005
(although he did only have 15 strikeouts, 4.5 K/9)
No idea of the spring training league adjustments that need to be made, but if it is the standard 3.20 for most FIP calculations, Erickson’s FIP was 3.87 in 2005. Ramon O is at 2.51 so far this spring, in all of 13 IP.
by Eric Stephen on Mar 23, 2010 3:07 PM PDT up reply actions
I've always had a thing for his wife
which is why I wanted him to do poorly.
by meercatjohn on Mar 23, 2010 3:14 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
+1
I don’t care whether or not she can report; she is smokin’.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
Bills today
pair of solo homers in 6 innings in a minor league game. Per Dylan H:
6 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 3K, 2 HR, 84 pitches
Underreported fact
Chad was throwing lefty today
by Eric Stephen on Mar 23, 2010 3:13 PM PDT up reply actions
giving up runs in the 6th inning after shutting down the team for 5+ innings
sounds a lot like last year tho
Where did you find information about what inning he allowed the runs in?
I couldn’t find that anywhere.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
nope
i havent found any for major leagues but there is for minor league at minorleaguesplits.com
by matthewmafa on Mar 23, 2010 11:57 PM PDT up reply actions
No, I meant in this particular minor league spring training game.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
Dylan Hernandez, hearing the same stuff Tony Jackson was last week…
Officials from NL and AL clubs tell me the Dodgers are shopping Eric Stults and Chin-lung Hu
Well
he was on vacation last week. Maybe he is clearing out VMs today, his first day back! :)
by Eric Stephen on Mar 23, 2010 3:19 PM PDT up reply actions
Dude’s a baseball writer and took a vacation during spring training????
by KellyStephen on Mar 23, 2010 7:32 PM PDT up reply actions
I suppose
just to get younger, I guess.
by Eric Stephen on Mar 23, 2010 3:20 PM PDT up reply actions
But there’s a whole lot of “meh” there.
by Eric Stephen on Mar 23, 2010 3:21 PM PDT up reply actions
Yes
Ceiling is higher.
Fifth starter is overrated anyway, so what if it’s more unstable for a month. :o
by Chad Moriyama on Mar 23, 2010 3:33 PM PDT up reply actions
SooHoo also believes in doing the right thing. To thank the players, coaches and managers for all of the support and access he receives, SooHoo went out of his way to create custom, hardcover books commemorating the 2009 Dodgers and the 2009 Trojans. They’re beautiful works of art and chronicle the iconic and everyday moments from the past year. "Last year, the guys took care of me, so I made each one of them a book," SooHoo simply states.
1. That is pretty darn cool.
2. I’m guessing he (and his staff) received some sort of cut of the playoff money, which is also pretty darn cool.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
BH & I saw Chris & Alex Volk on Friday, and they told us of their idea to shadow SooHoo around all day, and I knew it was going to be great. It was one of those “damn, I wish I thought of that first” moments. :)
Just a really cool and enjoyable article.
by Eric Stephen on Mar 23, 2010 3:46 PM PDT up reply actions
That is one of those really great stories that enlightens my understanding of a craft and product I normally take for granted. His job sounds awesome, but I always wonder if I would want to be that busy.
by robotmadeofnails on Mar 23, 2010 3:59 PM PDT up reply actions
Thanks
Thanks guys – glad you like the story! SooHoo is the man. Not only is he a fantastic photographer, but he’s also a very thoughtful guy. Wish I could share some of thestories that weren’t fit to print! :)
One note: we have a companion story coming out later tonight that documents my experience shadowing Jon during the game.
Eric amd BH, great to see you guys out in Arizona over the weekend!
by Dodgerfan.net Chris on Mar 23, 2010 4:28 PM PDT up reply actions
Presumably, they like Carroll as backup SS, and Belliard and Carroll as backup 2nd base, so that’s enough backups.
Well, the theory is that Hu is the man to play SS for a longer term, i.e. if Furcal goes on the DL. But I’m open to idea of throwing Carroll there if they have to. The problem is, Hu or no Hu, we are kind of screwed if Furcal gets hurt anyway.
by Eric Stephen on Mar 23, 2010 3:59 PM PDT up reply actions
The Torre quote was to increase Hu’s trade value :)
by Eric Stephen on Mar 23, 2010 3:57 PM PDT up reply actions
Something that hasn't been tried lately
trade Hu to a Japanese league team for a pitcher …
who knows, you might find a gem is available.
I don’t even see the point in soliciting trade offers for Stults and Hu. They’re going to get jack and shit for them.
If they are not traded, then probably released?
by 68elcamino427 on Mar 23, 2010 4:09 PM PDT up reply actions
They won’t release Hu. He’s still got an option left.
by Eric Stephen on Mar 23, 2010 4:13 PM PDT up reply actions
TJackson had Repko in that list too.
Perhaps the point is to see what the level of interest is, to see if the Dodgers could get away with DFAing one of them, having him clear waivers, then re-signing him to a minor-league deal, and opening a 40-man roster spot in the process.
Ortiz, Ortiz, Weaver, J. Miller, GA, and Eye Chart need room made for them. ;)
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
There's no point adding any of those guys to the 40-man roster
Unless they are going to make the 25-man roster.
The gauging interest and seeing about DFAing and retaining is a little far-fetched I supposed, but it would be an option for opening a 40-man spot should it come to that, but it likely won’t.
One spot opened with The Return of Zerpa (good screenplay title?), Wade to the 60-day opens one, Belisario on some suspended/restricted list opens another, at least for a short while.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
Kyle Russell
continues to be listed on the Dodgers 40-man roster on dodgers.com. When he first showed up there, that made 41 names on the list. Have the Dodgers ever confirmed that that is simply an error?
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
I forgot to ask about it, but I would bet just about any amount of money that it’s just an error
by Eric Stephen on Mar 23, 2010 4:43 PM PDT up reply actions
Uh oh
from Ken Gurnick:
Billingsley was the only Dodger required to be at Camelback Ranch-Glendale on what was scheduled to be a day off for the club, but Kuo’s presence for treatment was further evidence that all is not right with the left-hander, who might not make the Opening Day roster.
Some speculation by Gurnick but it’s not the best news regarding Kuo icing his arm.
Isn’t Kuo receiving treatment standard operating procedure, so to speak?
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
Probably. I imagine much of Kuo’s off days will involve ice and bandages from here on out.
by Eric Stephen on Mar 23, 2010 4:49 PM PDT up reply actions
This may be the telling fact
But Kuo experienced more tenderness following an impressive 1-2-3 inning on Friday night, and he hasn’t played catch since.
Today would be the fourth day without throwing. Not a good sign.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
This is the other fun part.
Among the batters Billingsley faced was catcher Carlos Santana, who has become one of the best prospects in baseball after being traded by the Dodgers to the Indians in the Casey Blake deal of 2008. Santana struck out and grounded out against Billingsley.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
Ken Gurnick posted an article last night on the Dodger arm collection fighting for spots on the staff. Most of it we’ve read before, but there was this little tidbit:
Pitching coach Rick Honeycutt said that to get everybody work, he will use a six-day rotation the rest of the way, allowing fifth starters to fill up two turns.OK everybody, start reworking your starting pitcher calendars to see who extrapolates to Opening Day!
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
Per a Dylan Hernandez tweet
Blake DeWitt’s 2010 salary: $410,000 in the majors, $168,000 in the minors.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
“whining” is an interesting choice of a word, and not the one I would have chosen. People can read the article and judge for themselves. I think he is understandably mad at himself that he wasn’t commanding his pitches well and got raked.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
Don’t think I would describe it as “whining” either, but I kind of like the sound of “Angry McDonald”
I think that there may be a significant amount of money at stake as well. With a good showing, he make the big club and draws his ~$400,000 salary, but in the minors he is making a lot less because he is not arb-eligible yet?
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
McDonald likely signed a split contract, but it’s still around 70,000 for the year since he has ML service time.
$400,000 - $70,000 = $330,000
I might be pissed at myself too.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
by David Young on Mar 23, 2010 11:31 PM PDT up reply actions
If DeWitt's contract is any indication
the spread isn’t that large between majors and minors. It is still pretty big…let’s say something like $410k vs $150k.
by Eric Stephen on Mar 24, 2010 5:37 AM PDT up reply actions
then the difference is still a rate of $260,000/year. Ouch.
Until he’s back up.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
Old McDonald had a farm
AAA I go
Naturally he’s upset, but with himself. I’m sure he’ll be back from the farm later this year.
i would not hate ra ortiz on a short leash
I would not hate ru ortiz on a long walk off a short pier
why you ask? he’s a giant, he bears an odd resemblance to derek jeter, and last but not least, he is god-awful at baseball pitching.
by lchristmas on Mar 23, 2010 10:54 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Ramon-ok.
Russ-get the hell out of dodge.
I think I’d prefer Stults, Hu, Repko for, say it with me, Granick! Or bring in the knuckleballer.
by Skunkburner on Mar 23, 2010 8:29 PM PDT via mobile reply actions
They might do it.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
by David Young on Mar 23, 2010 11:32 PM PDT up reply actions
Dodgerthoughts and other blogs
Wow, this place seems to have become the premier spot to post comments about the Dodgers.
The Dodgerthoughts blog, even though it has the same content, has hardly any comments anymore. A far cry from the baseballtoaster days. Sort of sad in a way.
The comment volume here and at DT were quite similar today, just spread across different numbers of articles.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
by David Young on Mar 23, 2010 11:38 PM PDT up reply actions
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