2010 Player Profile: Ramon Ortiz, a Changed Pitcher?
by Eric Stephen on Mar 24, 2010 7:00 AM PDT
in Community Projections
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PrintRamon Ortiz has burst onto the radar this spring, rightly or wrongly, and appears to be a strong candidate for a spot on the opening day roster. The man who hasn't put up a major league ERA below 5.36 since 2004 has done nothing but pitch well this spring, allowing just two runs in 13 innings, allowing 14 baserunners while striking out 17. Ortiz is a prime test subject for the question of what do we trust more: years of performance data, or a month of exhibition games? Scott Erickson put up a 2.10 ERA in 30 spring innings in 2005 and won a spot on the roster, but he was terrible. Then again, fellow scrap-heapers Chan Ho Park and Jeff Weaver have given the Dodgers solid pitching in 2008 and 2009, respectively, after years of mediocrity. Ortiz wouldn't be the first guy to take advantage of a hot spring training, and he certainly won't be the last.
If Ronald Belisario ever does in fact show up to camp this spring, perhaps he will have someone to discuss visa problems with in Ortiz, who turned 37 yesterday. In 2002, Ortiz was having trouble getting his visa before the season, and it was revealed that he was three years older than previously thought. From the LA Times in 2002:
The hard-throwing right-hander, who the team believed was going to turn 26 on March 23, actually will be 29. He provided the team with a fraudulent birth certificate when he was signed as a free agent in June 1995, Angel General Manager Bill Stoneman said.
Instead of having a 26-year old pitcher, the Angels had a 29-year old. Still, the suddenly more mature veteran Ortiz had his best season in 2002, winning 15 games with a 117 ERA+ for the world champs.
Since leaving the Angels after 2004, Ortiz has been a vagabond, pitching in Cincinnati, Washington, Minnesota, Colorado, Japan, and finally Fresno last year with the Giants' Triple A affiliate.
Trivia
From 2005 to 2009, Ramon Ortiz's 78 ERA+ ranks seventh worst among all 236 pitchers with at least 300 innings during that time. The worst figure, a 67 ERA+, belongs to fellow Dodger non-roster Ortiz, Russ.
Contract Status
Signed a minor league deal this offseason that will pay him $1 million if in the majors, with a potential for $1.05 million in performance incentives based on games started. If Ortiz does not make the active roster out of spring training, he can opt out of his contract and become a free agent.
2010 Outlook
| Year | Age | IP | BB/9 | K/9 | ERA | FIP |
| 2006 | 33 | 190.2 | 3.02 | 4.91 | 5.57 | 5.46 |
| 2007 | 34 | 104.0 | 1.90 | 4.41 | 5.45 | 5.07 |
| 2008 (Japan) |
35 | 82.0 | 2.20 | 3.51 | 5.82 | 4.99 |
| 2009 (AAA) |
36 | 129.2 | 2.36 | 4.91 | 3.05 | 3.33 |
| 2010 Projections - Age 37 Season | ||||||
| CHONE | 54.0 | 2.83 | 7.00 | 4.17 | 4.04 | |
| Marcel | 34.0 | 3.18 | 6.35 | 4.50 | 4.46 | |
| ZiPS | 128.0 | 2.60 | 6.19 | 4.50 | 4.32 | |
I have a hard time reconciling three projection systems saying Ortiz will do so well this season, when he hasn't pitched well anywhere except for Triple A in the last five years. Even in Fresno last season, he didn't strike anyone out, yet Ortiz is expected to strike out over six batters per nine innings, a number he hasn't touched since 2002? I don't see it. Even though Ortiz says he's a changed pitcher, I need more evidence. I'm guessing a 5.36 ERA and 1.524 WHIP in 42 innings.
What is your guess for Ramon Ortiz's 2010? Give us a prediction of ERA, WHIP, and innings pitched.
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Comments
6.22 ERA, 1.71 WHIP, 25 IP, released faster than you can spell Esteban Loaiza.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
I agree, but I don’t even think he’ll get that many innings. I’m guessing 3 outings of 3-4 innings with about that ERA/WHIP before he is gone. So I’ll guess your ERA/WHIP and 11 innings.
by CarolinaDodger on Mar 24, 2010 8:48 AM PDT up reply actions
Off topic
A small Mennonite college plays the national anthem before a baseball game for the first time ever. I don’t care about the ridiculous political rhetoric that accompanies a story like this. What I want to know is, how many of the players qualify for the nickname, The Beard?
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
The comments for that kind of story make me worry about America.
by robotmadeofnails on Mar 24, 2010 8:34 AM PDT up reply actions
I'm going out on a limb
and saying he has a solid season.
4.15 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 85 innings, 8 starts.
Small Spring Sample Size
I think he’ll revert to his usual terrible form if he makes the team. Stults should be the 5th starter.
The thing that leads me to believe
that his spring performance might actually be indicative of 2010 regular season success, is the K/9 and BB/9 numbers. As much as it is a very small sample size, it’s very difficult for a pitcher who has “lost it” to put up numbers like that – especially the K numbers – even in such a small sample size.
I don’t expect him to continue the K/9 rate, but this is a guy whose control continued to improve even when he really started to stink, and it appears he might have regained with his ability to strike hitters out. That’s the one part of his game that really took a dive in his decline, and says to me that his loss of power and/or command was responsible for that as well as his H/9 rate going up.
Small sample size, but I’m sold.
I don't follow
What is the evidence to suggest that striking batters out in a small sample size is meaningful? Assuming that he has the ability to strike out even 1 batter, then the individual fluctuations in terms of numbers of batters struck out per outing is insignificat so long as the sample size is insignificant. In this case we are talking 13 innings in games that don’t even count, which certainly qualifies as insignificant.
Just from my standpoint, I can’t take away anything of a K/9 basis, when we are talking about a total of 13 innings.
by Michael White on Mar 24, 2010 9:21 AM PDT up reply actions
How often does a non-power pitcher, a guy that you anticipate to post a 4.5 K/9, strike out somewhere in the neighborhood of 17 batters in ANY 13 inning stretch? I’m not saying he’ll maintain those rates, but it would appear he’s doing something right.
Just because a sample size is small doesn’t mean it’s absolutely meaningless.
Just because a sample size is small doesn’t mean it’s absolutely meaningless.
Actually, it sort of does. A sample size is meaningful if it is unlikely to have occured by chance. We have a 13 inning sample here. The baseball world is littered with players who have dominated in certain stretchces (Chris Shelton immediately comes to mind.) Ramon Ortiz possesses the ability to strike batters out (which is basically true of every pitcher, just not someone like me or you) therefore it is certainly possible that by chance he struck out 17 batters in a 13 inning stretch. It would be considered a great stretch if it occured when the games were not exhibition contests, but that it happened in spring training, lets call it a good stretch.
I’m not saying its impossible that he is a better pitcher now than the one who put up a FIP of about 5 in Japan. If you are scouting his pitching appearances and you see something in that breakdown which leads you to believe that he is a better pitcher, then I’m all ears. But you are saying that you believe he can be a useful pitcher based on 13 innings of work in spring training. That claim lacks evidence.
by Michael White on Mar 24, 2010 9:55 AM PDT up reply actions
Meaning
based on his Japanese peripherals we expected nothing and got plenty. Sure the sample size for Ortiz is small, but his work in AAA last year was not. Did our scouts see something they liked last year and that is why they invited him to camp? Maybe, the K rates this spring have been a bonus and as noted are not expected to continue but he just might possess enough skill that will help in the bullpen.
We should have learned a little bit of a lesson over the last few years where we have discounted the likes of Lima, Park, Weaver, and Saito only to find each of them giving us production much more then we could have have expected based on their recent prior results. With pitchers, health is always a factor and we never know how healthy these guys are when they are struggling.
by meercatjohn on Mar 24, 2010 10:02 AM PDT up reply actions
I'm not a scout
hanging out in Arizona, watching his stuff. So I can’t give you any information that you can’t find on your own.
It’s possible to strike out 17 batters by chance in 13 innings, but not very likely, at all, even in ST. The odds of a totally useless pitcher doing that (with a low walk rate as well) are not very good.
Having a low ERA or giving up only 1 or 2 hits in 13 innings is one thing, striking out 17 batters is another. Where the “small sample size” argument factors in is that he obviously won’t keep up an 11.8 K/9. However, it’s a large enough sample size to use as evidence that he may have regained his ability to do something around a 6 K/9, as he used to.
Also, saying the he “can” or “may” be useful, as I’m doing, is different than saying he “will.” The only evidence I can really provide is his ST numbers (with a grain of salt), that the Dodger scouts and coaches put him in the running for a job and still have him there, and the projections for him. Seems to be evidence just as strong as simply looking at his past few seasons and writing him off.
How is looking at his numbers in 13 innings of work just as much evidence as looking at his past few years (against inferior competition) of work? Sure, you can hang your hat on the argument that the Dodgers scouts saw something, and that’s fine, but by that logic, we should just post good projections for every Dodger in the running for a job.
by Michael White on Mar 24, 2010 10:29 AM PDT up reply actions
That was part of the package
that I claimed to be solid evidence (or at least as solid as just looking at old numbers and assuming nothing changes). And I’ve already explained why I think the 13 innings carry some weight. If you look at his decline, you’ll see that his K/9 drops drastically, and his H/9 goes way up. That says to me it’s a power/command problem, and 17 Ks in 13 innings is enough to suggest to me that he MIGHT have fixed or reinvented himself, because the odds of a dead arm doing that seem very, very long. I’m ignoring the low-1.00s ERA and focusing on ability to get 44% of outs recorded by K.
The Dodger scouts obviously see something that contradicts his past few years of performance. Good point that this can be applied to anyone in camp in terms of good projections, but I think it says more than the scouts have brought in a group of players that they think COULD have some use. Many of those guys are already gone. The point of throwing as many things at the wall as you can and seeing what sticks is that something might stick. You never expect it all to stick, but you’ll throw the stickiest stuff you can find on the cheap. That happens to include Towers and Russ O., but I’m not sold on them because I don’t see the same stuff I see in Ramon.
That’s where the spring performance comes in, and where real projections come in. The people doing those are much better at that than I am, and there’s something they like about Ramon.
If you want a real example of how small sample size is largely meaningless
Even if it is a singular example, look no further then May 7, 2007. Brad Penny, a pitcher who hadn’t averaged more than 7k/9 in a season ever in his entire career, goes seven innings against the Marlins and strikes out 14 batters. He averaged less than 6 K/9 that season, and in fact only cleared more than 7 one other time that year (8 in 7 IP).
I happen to recall that game, and anyone who does may well remember that the Marlins hitters were simply flailing at high fastballs like cheeseburgers thrown at… well, at Brad Penny . Small sample size can be skewed by any number of things, like 2-3 batters being particularly prone to the high fastball in a single lineup, where most would simply lay off.
You've given me an example
of a career 6.3 K/9 pitcher doing that. As I’ve already mentioned, I only expect 6 K/9 out of Ramon Ortiz. I don’t expect the 11+ he’s been doing in ST, but I also don’t expect the sub-5s he’s put up recently, and I expect his H/9 rate to fall if he’s really found his lost power and command.
As an avid gambler, I understand the concept of small sample size as well as just about anybody without a statistics degree. I also understand that acceptable sample sizes are made up of many small sample sizes.
Sometimes I think the “small sample size” argument is over/mis-used.
I just have a hard time believing that his “lost” power and command…
a) will come back
b) was ever there to begin with
He had 5.8 K/9 in 2004 (after a 4.7 K/9 in 2003), and has gone down ever since (5.0, 4.9, 4.4, 3.5, 4.9, the last two years against non-MLB competition).
Even at his best, he has two years that reached 6 K/9: his rookie year of 1999 (8.2 in 48 IP) and 2002 (6.7).
by Eric Stephen on Mar 24, 2010 11:58 AM PDT up reply actions
If you had told me a year ago
that I’d be vehemently arguing in favor of Ramon Ortiz… I’d think you’re insane.
He was never a true power pitcher, but he obviously lost what he did have, and he began to get knocked around the park at the same time. I find it interesting that the projection systems have him so high – even higher than I have him!
Haha, good point
I will admit Ortiz has looked good, stuff wise. I’m hoping he does well, but I’m highly, perhaps overly skeptical. :)
by Eric Stephen on Mar 24, 2010 12:45 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
If going to Japan made Ortiz such a better pitcher, why wasn’t he able to strike any hitters out there? Or is AAA Fresno last season?
by Eric Stephen on Mar 24, 2010 9:21 AM PDT up reply actions
Who knows?
Maybe it took a while to sink in, maybe he was spending his AAA time trying to apply what he had learned, maybe he simply found rediscovered his arm in the offseason.
I’m giving the benefit of the doubt to Dodger scouts and coaches if they apparently like what they’re seeing in him and have given him the opportunity to get this far. We can question and criticize decisions they make, and they often make questionable ones, but they’re not a bumbling group of fools that haven’t bothered to check out his numbers since 2004.
On my part, call it 1/3 faith that we can do the Park/Weaver thing again, 1/3 reading into a small sample size, and 1/3 gut feeling.
All the projection systems loved his work in AAA last year
enough to give those projections. His stuff this spring seems to support some of that. This isn’t a guy who is throwing crap and getting guys out. All reports are that his stuff has looked very good this spring. Stuff is stuff. I doubt he can maintain that stuff as a starter, but I would not be surprised to see him become a worthwhile addition to the bullpen. Ortiz is also doing this in Arizona, not exactly a place conducive to a pitching environment.
Erickson in 2005 was simply lucky in the spring and we noted it. He was a ground ball pitcher whose ground balls found fielders during the spring and didn’t when the games counted. It was one of the first chinks in the Depo armor that he let Erickson take the ball in 2005.
17 Ks this spring
March 5 vs Sox (Ortiz pitched innings 3-4)
1) Brent Lillibridge
2) Jared Mitchell
3) Alex Rios
March 10 vs Arizona (innings 4-6)
4) Gerrardo Parra
5) Drew Macias
6) Rusty Ryal
March 15 vs Angels (innings 1-4)
7) Torii Hunter
8) Kendry Morales
9) Juan Rivera
10) Macier Izturis
11) Torii Hunter
March 20 vs Texas (innings 5-8)
12) Brandon Boggs
13) Taylor Teagarden
14) David Murphy
15) Joey Butler
16) Toby Hall
17) Hernan Iribarren
by Eric Stephen on Mar 24, 2010 11:40 AM PDT up reply actions
Blue Jays are in first
does Vernon Wells count as live or dead?
by Dalton Paull on Mar 24, 2010 1:25 PM PDT up reply actions
That's funny
That’s the first thing I thought too, how can Toronto be in first and have all that money tied up in Wells.
by Michael White on Mar 24, 2010 1:27 PM PDT up reply actions
Morning Chuckle
Two young kids are in a hospital, lying on beds next to each other, outside the operating room.
The first kid leans over and asks, “What are you in here for?”
The second kid says, “I’m in here to get my tonsils out and I’m a little nervous.”
The first kid says, “You’ve got nothing to worry about. I had that done when I was four. They put you to sleep, and when you wake up they give you lots of Jell-O and ice-cream. It’s a breeze.”
The second kid then asks, “What are you here for?”
The first kid says, “A circumcision.”
And the second kid says, "Whoa, Good luck, buddy, I had that done when I was born…Couldn’t walk for a year.
Wow, that's insane
It’s like Rain Man, lol. But really, that must take tons of basketball knowledge and even more so INCREDIBLE luck. Congrats to him.
it says in the article
that the bracket challenge he’s in allows him to change picks after the fact… so take with a grain of salt.
Ramon
Odds are that Ramon will flame out, but I saw several Dodger games last week, and he was easily the best pitcher I saw. He was hitting low 90s and had good control. Looked much better than Stults or JMAC. I would definitely give him a shot at the 5th starter role.
March Madness--5th starter
(This is just for fun so don’t take it too seriously)
First Round—Lindblom with biggest bubble burst
1)Stults def. 8)Towers
2)McDonald loses to 7)Russ Ortiz
3)Elbert loses to 6)Monk
4)Haeger loses to 5)Ramon Ortiz
Second Round—Lots of names we weren’t expected to see
1)Stults vs. 5)Ramon Ortiz
6)Monk vs. 7)Russ Ortiz
Expect the unexpected.
by kinbote on Mar 24, 2010 11:06 AM PDT reply actions 4 recs
Ramon over Stults
Monk over Russ
Ramon over Monk
by silverwidow on Mar 24, 2010 11:21 AM PDT up reply actions
That is great, wish we had thought of that to start the year
by meercatjohn on Mar 24, 2010 11:32 AM PDT up reply actions
Play in game
Withrow versus Aaron Miller
by Michael White on Mar 24, 2010 11:53 AM PDT up reply actions
Why isn't this rec'd
With all the love it deservedly got?
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
After all is said and done the Dodgers probably trade for a 5th starter
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
FrankiePiliere
Lidge’s velocity at 85-89 again today. Fun scouting notes later tonight will detail Aumont and Yanks’ righty, Christian Garcia
Speaking of velocity decreases
Giants sent Madison Bumgarner down to AAA yesterday
There's no need to fear, Underdog is here! / Broncos/Dodgers/Lakers fan in Niners/Raiders/Giants/Warriors country, and damned proud of it.
Tough to be a minor league affiliate. The Fresno Grizzles, despite a beautiful new ballpark, are really suffering with attendance and revenue. They are basically praying that Posey plays there this year; if not, there goes their entire marketing campaign [essentially]. It never surprises me when players suffer after getting sent down. The overall feel of a minor league game is light-years more relaxed than a major league game. Those who can’t flip the switch are doomed.
Now that Ramon Ortiz is no longer in Fresno, they’re doomed! :)
by Eric Stephen on Mar 24, 2010 1:11 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
dodgers
Why in the world dont we trade for a#1 starter? Zack Granick? give up some rookie talent for him. Make it worth KC to take a look at it? Stultz-McDonald-Haeger and maybe 2 more? Dont tell me this would not be good for both teams
by spc7 on Mar 24, 2010 1:05 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
For the 1000th time
Kansas City would laugh us out of the room.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
I have a horrible day
at work today. Thinking about quiting a job I’m really good at and have done for the past 13 years to try…..I have no idea what. Wife on my ass about this and that. i work too late, don’t make enough money…And then like a beacon sent from above…ZACK GRANICK. No joke, I love this board, and I love you guys and don’t even know 10% of your real names. This is hilarious.
Thanks Guys
Way too much
money. Bottom line is the guy has a driver everywhere he goes. he runs in the same circles as THE Gary Miller and Trenni Kuznierek. No way KC goes for that.
by keithc13 on Mar 24, 2010 4:21 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
They wont let you in the front door with that offer. And I mean the building’s front door.
by Julio Nievas on Mar 24, 2010 1:24 PM PDT up reply actions
Why stop there?
Lets send Repko and Hu over to the Cards for Albert Phillips, and while we’re at it, maybe we can toss something together to get Joe Miller from the Twins.
by EMDarrow on Mar 24, 2010 1:29 PM PDT up reply actions 4 recs
not to mention the Cardinals paying most of his salary :)
by Eric Stephen on Mar 24, 2010 4:46 PM PDT up reply actions
again
Having—Zack -Kershaw-Billingsly-Padilla for the next 4 or 5 years? Fine with me and plenty of time to develope more talent too
Karuda
The Dodgers are paying him 14 million?—How can we say Colletti is any good? Wow Schimdt-Jones- 16 & 18 million? Manny 23? Look around the league-who is getting this kind of money? And Colletti got an extention? Wow—Hopefully he will be a little bit more careful-But we need a #1 starter And Im looking at 60 million for those guys I just mentioned -Sorry I just dont put alot of trust in Colletti
323 224 1500 Ask for Colletti and let him know what you think directly.
by delias man on Mar 24, 2010 1:25 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Maybe KC wants us to trade him
in exchange for Yuniesky Betancourt and Brian Bannister. Make it happen Dayton Moore! Bring us Clayton or I don’t put alot of trust in you. — Royals fans on parallel universe board
There's no need to fear, Underdog is here! / Broncos/Dodgers/Lakers fan in Niners/Raiders/Giants/Warriors country, and damned proud of it.
When should we start the PED accusations?
ERA: 3.90, WHIP: 1.40, 6 starts. Maybe he’s on a sushi diet.
NPUT
http://www.truebluela.com/2010/3/24/1388499/scrap-heap-gold
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
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