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2010 Player Profile: Russell Martin, Backstop Bounceback?

Bounceback, rebound, comeback, return to form: these are the sort of terms in use when people discuss Russell Martin following a 2009 that was offensively disappointing, to the tune of a .680 OPS (the table below totals to a .681 OPS, but that is due to rounding errors), including an incredibly low .329 slugging percentage.  To put that slugging percentage in perspective, David Eckstein and former Dodger Juan Pierre each had full-season slugging percentages that low, once, just once.

This power loss started in the second half of 2008, when the man with three middle names (Nathan Coltrane Jeanson) slugged a similarly low .336.  In the off-season that followed, the answer was supposed to be yoga, but as stated above, the power outage continued.  This off-season, the answer became muscle mass, along with a diet change.  For a catcher being pummeled by foul tips, pitches in the dirt, and the occasional runner barreling home, building your body to be "like a linebacker" might not be a bad idea.  The jury is still out, however.  The groin injury that Martin suffered at the beginning of spring training has kept his bat mostly hidden from obvious view, so there have been limited reports on how he has looked hitting.

A glance at some of Martin's statistics suggests that strength may have played a part in his 2009 slump; his home run to fly ball ratio was a low 5.4% after posting ratios between 9.3% and 12.2% during his career.  There may also have been some bad luck involved as he had a career-low .284 BABIP - his BABIP through 2008 was .311 - despite a career-high line-drive percentage of 20.5%.

Russell Martin has been a fan favorite since he was the first of the Jacksonville 5ive - check out that roster - to seize an everyday job at the major-league level and not let go.  The fans are probably still firmly in Martin's corner, but they would surely like to see at least some offensive rebound from him in 2010.

Trivia

Did you know that before the Dodgers drafted Russell Martin in the 17th round of the 2002 draft as an infielder, the Montreal Expos of his native Quebec also drafted him as an infielder in the 35th round of the 2000 draft?

Contract Status

Martin signed a one-year contract this off-season for $5.05 million, plus $50,000 incentives for reaching 550 and 600 plate appearances.  He has two years of arbitration eligibility remaining.

2010 Outlook

Year Age PA BB% K% Runs RBI BA OBP SLG wOBA
2006 23 468 9.6% 13.7% 65 65 .282 .355 .436 .339
2007 24 620 10.8% 16.5% 87 87 .293 .374 .469 .368
2008 25 650 13.8% 15.0% 87 69 .280 .385 .396 .351
2009 26 588 11.7% 15.8% 63 53 .250 .352 .329 .307
2010 Projections - Age 27 Season
Bill James 611 12.8% 15.6% 80 71 .272 .372 .396 .341
CHONE 596 11.4% 15.4% 77 70 .273 .364 .407 .345
Marcel 559 12.2% 16.5% 70 61 .273 .369 .400 .343
ZiPS 573 11.9% 15.5% 74 76 .272 .367 .392 .343
Baseball HQ 578 11.9% - 72 63 .266 .354 .375 -

 

Russell Martin is furiously trying to be ready for Opening Day and not open the season on the disabled list.  From the reports I've seen, he's going to make it.  A lot of folks have used Jason Kendall's two year power outage - from a higher peak - as a comparison point for Martin, but I would note that he did bounce back some for two seasons with OPSs at .815 and .789, before the rigors of catching seemed to take their final toll.  For Kendall, his slump also started with his age-27 season, which Martin is just now entering.  I'll predict 133 starts at catcher - given that the backup is 41-year old Brad Ausmus, I can't see Martin getting more rest, which he probably needs after leading the major in games and innings caught since he's been with the Dodgers - for 575 PAs, .280 / .380 / .405.

What are your predictions for Russell Martin (BA/OBP/SLG and Plate Appearances)?  Also guess the number of starts at catcher for Martin.

(Statistics courtesy of baseball-reference.com and fangraphs.com)

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.285 / .391 / .413 in 594 PA

Martin is supposed to start today against the Giants. I haven’t heard otherwise yet. If he does start, that means any DL trip, if needed, couldn’t start until tomorrow at the earliest, rather than March 26 (which is currently the case). In other words, I think Martin is a lock for opening day.

by Eric Stephen on Mar 31, 2010 8:30 AM PDT reply actions  

.270 / .360 / . 385 in 600 plate appearances and 135 starts at catcher.

by Michael White on Mar 31, 2010 8:32 AM PDT reply actions  

mine would be somewhere around that as well.

by oshea2002 on Mar 31, 2010 8:43 AM PDT up reply actions  

274/385/399

They need his bounceback. He could be the sole difference between COL and LA this year.

by delias man on Mar 31, 2010 8:58 AM PDT reply actions  

Turtle

.282/.385/.415, 129 starts at C, 1 start at 3B

by some_dude on Mar 31, 2010 9:17 AM PDT reply actions  

Logan White on Lindblom
Is he a starter or a reliever?

A. You know, I think he can do either, or… If you really had to pen me down, he’s best suited as a pen guy because he’s done it more. When you see the pitches that he throws up there – he has four pitches, he throws strikes, he’s big and physical – I think he can start, but he’ll throw harder out of the bullpen. I think he’s somewhat of a quicker fix out of the pen and could help us quicker there.

New interview on LADodgerTalk. (Link from DodgerThoughts)

There's no need to fear, Underdog is here! / Broncos/Dodgers/Lakers fan in Niners/Raiders/Giants/Warriors country, and damned proud of it.

by underdog on Mar 31, 2010 9:23 AM PDT reply actions  

I am on the side of giving Lindblom Stults’ 40-man spot at this point and making the OD roster. We need another power arm in the bullpen with Bellisario and Kuo out and I would much rather he get it than Green.

by OB12 on Mar 31, 2010 9:32 AM PDT up reply actions  

This interview is FANTASTIC. I’m still reading it and loving the candor, especially about McDonald.

Logan = genius.

by silverwidow on Mar 31, 2010 9:39 AM PDT up reply actions  

Man, I just love the part about Logan thinking Withrow has a better arm than Kershaw. I know it’s like choosing between Miss Universe and Miss World, but this still great to read.

by silverwidow on Mar 31, 2010 9:59 AM PDT up reply actions  

That was pretty amazing. Even if he’s exaggerating, I’m still excited.

by oshea2002 on Mar 31, 2010 10:00 AM PDT up reply actions  

I have had a lot of conversations with him over the years, but this one… you are getting a little preview.

Woah.

by Michael White on Mar 31, 2010 10:00 AM PDT up reply actions  

Yeah, someone's gonna get a talking to!

This really is a key point in McDonald’s career, how he handles it, as White says. I think White’s talk with him this time will help.

There's no need to fear, Underdog is here! / Broncos/Dodgers/Lakers fan in Niners/Raiders/Giants/Warriors country, and damned proud of it.

by underdog on Mar 31, 2010 10:05 AM PDT up reply actions  

I was a little disheartened yesterday with the news of Stults being sold and continued talk of Nick Green making the team. I wonder what it would be like to have an OD roster that actually made some sense 1-25? I can understand the reasoning behind Ramon Ortiz and Jeff Weaver and the desire to keep Monk, but keeping a roster spot for someone like Green is stupid and will probably be compounded when April 25th rolls around and DeWitt gets the shaft because of the perceived need to have Green. Oh well, the roster is largely good, it is just easily avoidable mistakes like this that annoy me.

by OB12 on Mar 31, 2010 9:24 AM PDT reply actions  

.272/.365/.399
140 catcher starts

bounces back, but not as far back as we hope

by MammothDodger on Mar 31, 2010 9:25 AM PDT reply actions  

If Martin can slug .400 then he should be fine. Here’s hoping for this line:

.288/.375/.415 in 128 starts at catcher

by Ivdown on Mar 31, 2010 9:28 AM PDT reply actions  

On the subject, Logan White on Russell Martin
Yes, he used to be a guy who was really good, had a short swing, used the center of the diamond and went to opposite way. He was really good at taking the outer pitch and going the other way. He’d hit ball over the second basemen (in his first two years) and in the gap and then he’d surprise you and hit one out in dead-center. You know, I’ve watched his swing over the years and when he’d get out of whack is always when he would fly open, his front foot would lift and collapse. Then I could talk to him or the coaches would talk to him and get him back on track. Now, Donnie’s really working with him and getting him staying consistent with what he is doing and I believe that will help him a lot. I do think the fact that he went into a "lean, lean" program last offseason affected his ability to stay strong. I think the added strength will show up in improved bat speed, and you know what, Russ has a lot of pride. He’s young player who strugged and didn’t know how to get out of it. On thing I will tell you is that Russ Martin has one of the greatest work ethics around. He works his butt off. It may not always show up in the boxscore, but he is always working. One winter he stayed at my house all winter and everyday he was up at 6 AM and he was working hard every day. That hasn’t changed. I think he has to be smart how he works as he gets older. He’s one of those guys who could work too hard. The thing with Russ is that he plays hurts. Every little hangnail, he’s not going to Joe or the trainers. He doesn’t ask out.

There's no need to fear, Underdog is here! / Broncos/Dodgers/Lakers fan in Niners/Raiders/Giants/Warriors country, and damned proud of it.

by underdog on Mar 31, 2010 9:31 AM PDT reply actions  

It's kind of poetic, in a way

Russell Martin is the bookends to the Arizona portion of spring training for the Dodgers. He played in the first game of the spring (March 5), and he’ll play in the final game at Camelback Ranch, today. In between, nothing.

by Eric Stephen on Mar 31, 2010 9:35 AM PDT reply actions  

Should have fresh legs to start the season

and it was a blessing that AJ Ellis got time to prove he can be an adequate backup.

Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen

by Phil Gurnee on Mar 31, 2010 9:45 AM PDT up reply actions  

So I should pick up Russel off waivers and drop Yadier? :)

by robotmadeofnails on Mar 31, 2010 11:12 AM PDT up reply actions  

Bounceback

.283/.383/.417

Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen

by Phil Gurnee on Mar 31, 2010 9:47 AM PDT reply actions  

I’m sure it’s been discussed on here ad nauseum (haven’t been around much), but is anyone surprised by the ridiculous amount of love Colorado has gotten? I agree they are division favorites, but even guys like Keith Law (who normally aren’t prone to Olney type overreactions) on the BS Report podcast said he’d be “beyond shocked” if Colorado doesn’t win the division. I think they probably have better division odds than us, SF, or AZ (if Webb is healthy), but I’d still put them at less than 50% with that many other solid-good teams. This isn’t the NL Central.

by oshea2002 on Mar 31, 2010 9:55 AM PDT reply actions  

I love it

If winning the NL West two years in a row with essentially the same team still doesn’t make you the favorite going into the season then I don’t know what will. I’m all for someone else being the target. Would love to see Colorado fail with the pressure on.

by LA Taco on Mar 31, 2010 10:03 AM PDT up reply actions  

Have to say

I love the Rockie team. They don’t have a weakness other then 2nd base, they have legit superstar Tulo, a budding one in Cargo, a great past superstar in Helton, a very deep bench, a legit CY Young candidate in Ubaldo, a nice number two in DeLaRosa, and some incredible pitching prospects not far away.

We should be worried about this team which is why I don’t think we can afford to dick around with our roster, we need the best 25 man team from the get go.

Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen

by Phil Gurnee on Mar 31, 2010 10:05 AM PDT up reply actions  

I totally agree with that. I get what Ned is saying sometimes with “it’s only the opening day roster” stuff, but I’m with you, dicking around for 60 days and then making some changes is ridiculous if they can be partially solved now by simply having the best guys on the team.

by oshea2002 on Mar 31, 2010 10:08 AM PDT up reply actions  

I like them as well

Cargo is going to have a breakout year. I’m in love with his swing. Tulo is a stud. They’re a very young team besides Helton at 1st and you’re right, I see no weaknesses here except for 2nd. This team can absolutely rake.

by Julio Nievas on Mar 31, 2010 10:11 AM PDT up reply actions  

Dodgers "out raked" em last year

Best NL rakers last year by (park adj) OPS+ in the NL in 2009 were…

1. Brewers
2. Dodgers
3. Phillies
4. Rockies

Rockies (even with the humidor) still get quite a boost to their offensive numbers due to the spacious and elevated park they play in. A full year of Cargo and some regression here and there from both teams, probably puts the two offenses pretty even. Dodgers are still favorites to win the West. Not by much – but still faves imo.
vr, Xei

by Xeifrank on Mar 31, 2010 10:34 AM PDT up reply actions  

They're a really good team with a deep bench

who deserve to be picked to finish first. That said, I’m totally fine with the lovefest. Even the Rockies announcers were joining in yesterday (well, not surprisingly I guess, being homers and all) with constant gushing for all things Rockies. Even Jim Tracy. I think they deserve the praise and to be the favorite, but are not without flaws. I still think there are question marks in their rotation, and their bullpen is even more a question mark to me, especially with Street hurt. But they have some good depth in the minors, too. They’re definitely the team to beat, but don’t have the division sewn up before the season starts, as some have made it sound. Anyway, I prefer being the underdog. ;-)

There's no need to fear, Underdog is here! / Broncos/Dodgers/Lakers fan in Niners/Raiders/Giants/Warriors country, and damned proud of it.

by underdog on Mar 31, 2010 10:08 AM PDT up reply actions  

I still think there are question marks in their rotation, and their bullpen is even more a question mark to me

Sounds familiar…

by Julio Nievas on Mar 31, 2010 10:15 AM PDT up reply actions  

I’d rather have it be the Rockies with their good team than the Dbacks with their suspect team like last year.

by Ivdown on Mar 31, 2010 10:41 AM PDT up reply actions  

I think the Rockies are a very good team and have no problem saying they are the favorites to win the division. I agree with you that they are not overwhelming favorites, though. I think we may be nearing a Winston Wolf situation with Colorado. :)

by Eric Stephen on Mar 31, 2010 10:14 AM PDT up reply actions  

From an emotional standpoint, I find it difficult to be concerned with a Rockies team that the Dodgers dominated last year and is coached by Jim Tracy.

by Michael White on Mar 31, 2010 10:16 AM PDT up reply actions  

Hah. Did you see Tracy

interviewed during the game yesterday? (on Rockies broadcast) Oh my God it was classic Tracyspeak.

There's no need to fear, Underdog is here! / Broncos/Dodgers/Lakers fan in Niners/Raiders/Giants/Warriors country, and damned proud of it.

by underdog on Mar 31, 2010 11:00 AM PDT up reply actions  

R.Martin

Hopefully the woeful power has nothing to do with a certain something that Manny dealt with for 50 games last year. Nonetheless, my preds are…

AB: 515
Hits: 131
1B: 101
2B: 20
3B: 0
HR: 10
Ave: .255
Obp: .347
Slg: .351
Ops: .698
wOBA: .319
Babip: .284

by Xeifrank on Mar 31, 2010 10:25 AM PDT reply actions  

Why must you be so negative and most likely realistic, lol

I want nothing less than a .725 OPS from Martin, otherwise I fear for his future in Dodger blue.

by Ivdown on Mar 31, 2010 10:45 AM PDT up reply actions  

Oops

Those were Ricky Martin’s numbers not Russell Martin. :)
vr, Xei

by Xeifrank on Mar 31, 2010 10:50 AM PDT up reply actions  

Pop culture reference from Xei!!! Must be time for baseball season to start :)

by Eric Stephen on Mar 31, 2010 11:00 AM PDT up reply actions  

.284/.380/.420

I do think Ausmus retires at some point during the season and becomes a coach, continuing to work with Martin. During last weekend’s minor league game, I saw Ausmus watch Martin over his 6 inning rehab stint. This was immediately after Ausmus played 3 innings in the Stadium and while the Major League game was still going on. In that situation, Ellis comes up and spells Martin some more. With the added rest, Martin can keep up his performance and have a comeback year.

by JJ 24 on Mar 31, 2010 11:40 AM PDT reply actions  

He's gonna try to one up Kemp and Dre,

so he will show a surge of power.
.301 avg, .425 slug, .478 obp
high hopes=nice dreams

by Skunkburner on Mar 31, 2010 11:45 AM PDT via mobile reply actions  

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Pos No Player 2012 Salary
C 17 Ellis $490,000
1B 7 Loney $6,375,000
2B 37 Herrera $375,082
3B 6 Hairston $2,250,000
SS 9 Gordon $485,000
LF 23 Abreu $401,311
CF 10 Gwynn $850,000
RF 16 Ethier $10,950,000

OF/1B 33 Van Slyke $388,197
2B/3B 3 Kennedy $800,000
OF/1B 30 Sands $375,175
IF 13 DeJesus $448,992
C 18 Treanor $850,000

SP 22 Kershaw $6,000,000
SP 58 Billingsley $9,000,000
SP 29 Lilly $12,000,000
SP 44
Harang $3,000,000
SP 35 Capuano $3,000,000

CL 74
Jansen $491,000
RHP 52 Lindblom $483,000
RHP 51 Belisario $414,426
RHP 54 Guerra $488,000
RHP 28
Wright $900,000
LHP 57 Elbert $488,500
RHP 60 Coffey $1,000,000

DL 27 Kemp $10,000,000
DL 21 Rivera $4,000,000
DL 12 Sellers $481,000
DL 5 Uribe $8,000,000
DL 55 Guerrier $4,750,000
DL 14 Ellis $2,500,000
60DL 36 Hawksworth $495,000
60DL 41 De La Rosa $485,000

AA 50 Eovaldi $7,885
AAA 56 Antonini $7,869



Manny $8,087,432 deferred


Andruw $3,375,000 deferred


Pierre $3,050,000 deferred
Furcal $3,000,000 deferred
Kuroda $2,000,000 deferred
Garland $1,500,000 option buyout
Blake $1,250,000 option buyout
DFA 66 MacDougal $650,000

Totals
$115,942,869

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Current 40-man roster count: 42
(incl. De La Rosa & Hawksworth)

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Eric___ned___reporters_2011_trade_deadline_small Eric Stephen

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