2010 Player Profile: Manny Ramirez
by Michael White on Mar 4, 2010 8:00 AM PST
in Community Projections
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While many know-it-all media types warned the Dodgers that Manny Ramirez would not produce in 2009 at the same level as 2008 (as though it was an earth-shattering revelation to suggest that posting an OPS+ of 221 was unsustainable) a 50 game suspension for a failed steroid test was a stunning development. Despite showing up to spring training late thanks to prolonged contract negotiations with the club Ramirez, got off to a very strong start. With Ramirez posting a line of .372/.500/.674 in April/May of 2009, the Dodgers were able to jump out to an early lead in the division which was never relinquished.
And then all hell broke loose.
On May 7th, news broke that Ramirez was suspended for 50 games for testing positive for HCG, a women's fertility drug which violates Major League Baseball's performance enhancing drug policy. Manny went down pretty quietly, which is to say he didn't put up a public fight and wasn't much heard from until he showed up Albuquerque to begin his rehab assignment. Many erroneously believe that Manny struggled after he came back from suspension, but that wasn't really the case. In nearly a full month of action in July, Ramirez posted an OPS of .931 in 91 plate apperances. The real turning point for Ramirez was not the return from suspension (and the implicit notion that Ramirez was unable to perform once he was off the "juice") but was getting hit by a Homer Bailey pitch on July 21, 2009. Despite delivering a dramatic pinch hit grand slam the following night, Ramirez's production went on a solid decline for the rest of the season. Manny posted an OPS of .881 in August and an OPS of .833 in September and October, leading me to believe that Ramirez was suffering from a lingering hand injury as the season came to an end.
| Year | Projection | Age | G | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS | OPS+ | wOBA |
| 2006 | 34 | 130 | 558 | 449 | 79 | 144 | 27 | 1 | 35 | 102 | 0 | 1 | 100 | 102 | .321 | .439 | .619 | 1.058 | 165 | .434 | |
| 2007 | 35 | 133 | 569 | 483 | 84 | 143 | 33 | 1 | 20 | 88 | 0 | 0 | 71 | 92 | .296 | .388 | .493 | .881 | 126 | .375 | |
| 2008 | 36 | 153 | 654 | 552 | 102 | 183 | 36 | 1 | 37 | 121 | 3 | 0 | 87 | 124 | .332 | .430 | .601 | 1.031 | 165 | .432 | |
| 2009 | 37 | 104 | 431 | 352 | 62 | 102 | 24 | 2 | 19 | 63 | 0 | 1 | 71 | 81 | .290 | .418 | .531 | .949 | 155 | .396 | |
| 2010 | Bill James | 38 | 140 | 602 | 514 | 88 | 152 | 32 | 1 | 30 | 101 | 1 | 0 | 88 | 118 | .296 | .406 | .537 | .943 | .381 | |
| 2010 | CHONE | 38 | 114 | 478 | 415 | 65 | 116 | 22 | 1 | 24 | 78 | 0 | 0 | 57 | 97 | .280 | .374 | .511 | .885 | .376 | |
| 2010 | Marcel | 38 | 481 | 409 | 67 | 118 | 25 | 1 | 21 | 73 | 2 | 1 | 63 | 91 | .289 | .389 | .509 | .897 | .365 | ||
| 2010 | HQ | 38 | 488 | 90 | 147 | 34 | 2 | 27 | 98 | 0 | 90 | .301 | .410 | .546 | .957 |
2010 Expectations
On the one hand, Dodger fans should expect a bounce in the counting stats for Ramirez, as there does not figure to be another 50 game suspension (well in a worst case scenario of a 2nd test it would be a 100 game suspension anyway.) Additionally, Ramirez should get a boost if it turns out the late season struggles were the result of a hand injury that has been rested in the long offseason. On the other hand, Ramirez is entering his age 38 season, which figures to be his last in Los Angeles. Torre has indicated that Manny would get more regular rest in 2010, perhaps as often as 1 game off per week and if the Dodgers jump out to an early lead in 2010 as they did in 2009, lineups without Ramirez would be appropriate. However, Torre has shown that he is pretty quick to change his mind regarding his star outfielder, and if the Dodgers get off to a slow start it'll be interesting to see how often Ramirez sits down in favor of Reed Johnson.
My projection: .284/.380/.490
What are your community projections for Manny Ramirez?
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Comments
Contract Year
Hey guys,
Does anyone know of a place where players coming up on contract years are listed?
by robotmadeofnails on Mar 4, 2010 8:12 AM PST reply actions
thanks, Eric
I just picked up the Baseball Prospectus 2010, and I am surprised at the low projections from PECTOA for Manny.
by robotmadeofnails on Mar 4, 2010 8:46 AM PST up reply actions
I think with Manny we should include starts
in the predictions.
My guess: .291/.409/.524, with 134 starts
Good call
I’ll go with 148 starts.
I think Torre pulls the plug early on getting any of his star outfielders rest, Kemp, Ethier and Manny are going to be relied upon.
by Michael White on Mar 4, 2010 9:03 AM PST up reply actions
..302/.402/.502 – 129 starts
Amazing, Hank Aaron at age 37 lead the league in slug .667, OPS 1.079, and OPS+ 194. That 194 was the highest OPS+ of his career. For age 37 that was the 3rd best in history behind some guys name Bonds and Ruth.
Manny even in his “down” year had the 11th best OPS+ in history for age 37.
Player HR OPS+ G Year Age PA RBI BB IBB BA OBP SLG OPS Pos
Barry Bonds 46 268 143 2002 37 612 110 198 68 .370 .582 .799 1.381 *7/D
Babe Ruth 41 201 133 1932 37 589 137 130 0 .341 .489 .661 1.150 *97/3
Hank Aaron 47 194 139 1971 37 573 118 71 21 .327 .410 .669 1.079 *39
Ted Williams 24 171 136 1956 37 503 82 102 11 .345 .479 .605 1.084 *7
Tris Speaker 12 166 117 1925 37 518 87 70 0 .389 .479 .578 1.057 *8
Edgar Martinez 37 157 153 2000 37 665 145 96 8 .324 .423 .579 1.002 *D/3
Andres Galarraga 44 157 153 1998 37 648 121 63 11 .305 .397 .595 .991 *3/D
Honus Wagner 9 156 130 1911 37 558 89 67 0 .334 .423 .507 .930 *63/8
Tony Gwynn 17 156 149 1997 37 651 119 43 12 .372 .409 .547 .957 *9/D
Willie Mays 23 156 148 1968 37 573 79 67 7 .289 .372 .488 .860 *8/39
Manny Ramirez 19 155 104 2009 37 431 63 71 21 .290 .418 .531 .949 *7
George Brett 14 153 142 1990 37 607 87 56 14 .329 .387 .515 .902 *3D/975
Frank Robinson 30 150 147 1973 37 630 97 82 12 .266 .372 .489 .861 *D7
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 3/4/2010.
This is what he will be shooting for in 2010
Player OPS+ G Year Age PA HR BB IBB SO BA OBP SLG OPS Pos
Ted Williams 233 132 1957 38 546 38 119 33 43 .388 .526 .731 1.257 *7
Barry Bonds 231 130 2003 38 550 45 148 61 58 .341 .529 .749 1.278 *7/D
Babe Ruth 176 137 1933 38 575 34 114 0 90 .301 .442 .582 1.023 *97/13
Bob Johnson 174 144 1944 38 626 17 95 0 67 .324 .431 .528 .959 *7
Ty Cobb 171 121 1925 38 490 12 65 0 12 .378 .468 .598 1.066 *8/91
Edgar Martinez 160 132 2001 38 581 23 93 9 90 .306 .423 .543 .966 *D/3
Willie Stargell 158 122 1978 38 450 28 50 10 93 .295 .382 .567 .949 *3
Cy Williams 155 107 1926 38 384 18 38 0 35 .345 .418 .568 .986 *9
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 3/4/2010.
“On May 7th, news broke that Ramirez was suspended for 50 games for testing positive for HCG, a women’s fertility drug which violates Major League Baseball’s performance enhancing drug policy”
This is not entirely correct. Manny was tested and had a higher than average testosterone level. He was going to fight the suspension, then an old UNFILLED SCRIPT for the fertility drug was found. The script filled, or unfilled, violated MLB rules…
Every thing else was right on though Mike..
peace out!
Thanks bluetrain
I was trying to research it when preparing for this profile, but there was SO much information (or misinformation) that it was tough to pin down exatly what he got pinched for.
Thanks for clearing that up.
by Michael White on Mar 4, 2010 9:41 AM PST up reply actions
Can Manny be suspended for drinking too many offensively named energy drinks? ;-0
I’ve heard since that is was another Manny being Manny moment(not really endorsing) and it was just a…. little funny remark by the comedian himself. But if that stuff shows up in the next drug test….
The name of those energy drinks is very much related to the drug he had a prescription for last year :)
by Eric Stephen on Mar 4, 2010 10:00 AM PST up reply actions
Torre notes today
Infield:
We got to find out who can play acceptable shortstop. Its going to come down to give and take I think the bench is going to be fine. I’m not planning on resting Furcal as much as we did in the first half last year
I’m leaning more toward the idea that we won’t necessarily have a designated SS (Berroa/Green/Hu type), which is good.
On Russell Martin’s weight gain:
Russell has been trying to recapture what he was early on. He’s impatient so he’s going to try different things. His agility looks fine. He talked to the trainers about it in the offseason so no one was surprised.
Vanilla quote about GA:
He’s a pretty good player, he’s dangerous and knows how to hit. He’s played regular his whole career. His approach is different depending on the pitcher, he’s very intelligent. I haven’t spoken to him.
My memory stinks too
I knew it wasn’t Maza, but that was the name I had in my head. I couldn’t remember Castro’s name.
by Michael White on Mar 4, 2010 9:56 AM PST up reply actions
maybe you were
actually guessing what Torre will do in 2010.
DeWitt/Carroll to share SS duties on the (rare?) days Furcal is out?
Manny Projection
AB: 510
Hits: 148
1B: 87
2B: 33
3B: 2
HR: 26
Ave: .290
OBP: .404
SLG: .517
OPS: .921
wOBA: .401
BABIP: .332
Bat Flips: 0.5
Prediction
Hard for me to use too many of these newfangled stats, but I think Manny will have a very productive offensive year. Batting ahead of Loney, he should get a lot of BBs, and I expect more frequent resting to help him as well. I predict an OBP north of .400, increasingly problematic defense, and a big playoff performance [knocking wood frantically].
LHB PH projections
CHONE
X.Paul: .262/.326/.397
B. Giles: .248/.342/.369
G. Anderson: .262/.298/.404
D.Mientkiewicz: .246/.336/.364
Marcel
X.Paul: .272/.348/.435
D.Mientkiewicz: .264/.344/.392
B. Giles: .257/.344/.385
G. Anderson: .271/.312/.415
Bill James
B. Giles: .264/.371/.401
G. Anderson: .277/.316/.425
D.Mientkiewicz: N/A
X.Paul: N/A
by Eric Stephen on Mar 4, 2010 10:50 AM PST up reply actions
What makes you say that?
Paul nearly played his way onto the team last year, and that was with Slappy being owed $18MM for 2 more years. If Paul wins the job, it’s not a big deal if the Dodgers have to eat these PVL contracts.
by Michael White on Mar 4, 2010 11:07 AM PST up reply actions
If Paul wins the job, there are no contracts to eat since the $550k boys are all on minor league deals, and will either earn ~80-100k in the minors or — far more likely — choose to become a free agent (or retire) if they don’t make the team.
by Eric Stephen on Mar 4, 2010 11:09 AM PST up reply actions
Seems obvious from Dodger management perspective
that Repko, Barton and company are simply depth insurance and will be stashed in AAA, the signing of Reed Johnson sealed their fates. They must feel that Paul needs to play everyday after missing most of last year but has a glimmer of hope given the gimp status of the LH PVL. They are a funny trio, one guy can’t run, one guy can’t throw, one guy can do both but not very well at his age.
Upton contract
Has a no-trade clause, per Nick Piecoro of the AZ Republic:
Upton’s contract includes limited no-trade provision. Every year, he’ll pick four teams to which he cannot be traded
That’s better than nothing, I guess, but that still leaves %86 of teams in baseball he can be traded to. But after assuming he won’t be traded in division, that’s %72.
Nice no trade clause, haha.
Is this sort of NTC designed to give the player some leverage and not to just blacklist teams he doesn’t like? For example each year given his $$$ and position, his agent might be able to pick the 4 most likely trading partners? I don’t understand it.
It’s just a small amount of leverage, that’s all.
by Eric Stephen on Mar 4, 2010 12:12 PM PST up reply actions
Pick 4 for each season. So he could be traded to 25 teams each year.
by Eric Stephen on Mar 4, 2010 12:15 PM PST up reply actions
I asked Tony Jackson about Garret Anderson’s number. He wore 16 with the Angels (Ethier), and 18 with the Braves (Kuroda). I loved Jackson’s reply:
I guess they could split the difference and give him 17. I don’t think Jason Repko is going to need it.
Zing!
Barry Zito hit Prince Fielder with the first pitch to him today, presumably as retaliation for his awesome bowling pin celebration to his walkoff last year.
I read that. Zito went up a notch in my book with that pitch.
(He’s still a low-life Giant, however, and therefore pondscum. But given his collegiate heritage at least he’s somewhere near the surface.)
I think Fielder is an ass. I hope he signs a free agent deal w/the Giants in a couple of years so I can really hate him.
Then I can say...
I struck out a Giant. He played in my Home Town on a poor but uber rich team. The school was 14K/year if I’m not mistaken. He made Varsity as a 13 year old 7th grader. Years later as a Sophmore I struck him out in a Legion vs. AAU game. Faced him 3 times, he hit a LONG 2B, Flew out and struck out swinging. I had to be pulled because of how bad he ran up my pitch count. The dude fouled off everything I had. I remember thinking that he was going to make it impossible to get him to swing and miss. We knew back then that he was destined for greatness, partly because his Dad is Cecil who in 91’ hit 51 HOUR 144 RBI. So while striking Prince out once after many tries doesn’t feel as accomplished as it sounds due to the fact that I was several years older and still struggled against him. The rest of his team wouldn’t make a bench spot on ours yet they had Prince and he was always good for hitting one out while knocking in three, his team hardly ever managed to beat us. As far as his progression through High School once he grew into his Adult Frame it was all over, it seemed like nobody could keep his shots in the park. Its crazy how age matters so much more when you are younger like that. 4 years later that kid became one of the top picks in the draft! He’s the only Ball Player I can recall ever being picked up after graduating from St Ed’s. Usually their Athletes go on to Ivy League schools. Sorry for rambling, but true story.
by VeroJoe on Mar 4, 2010 6:08 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
I just remembered the whole fiasco with Fielder charging through the tunnels to the Dodger clubhouse.
by robotmadeofnails on Mar 4, 2010 4:14 PM PST up reply actions
I don’t think it ever did change, although TJ himself noted McD in a story the other day, but that was the only mention of that.
by Eric Stephen on Mar 4, 2010 12:23 PM PST up reply actions
Eric, you can tell him that in 2 weeks
You can really cut out the middle man and just ask him questions in the press box.
A question that briefly appeared on the Jackson chat (then disappeared) was “what do you think is the long-term future of Tony Abreu?”
LOL
Can't be worse than
Eric – do you find strange that the Dodgers did not re-sign Mark Lorretta?
by bhsportsguy on Mar 4, 2010 12:35 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
For silverwidow
Tony Jackson, last Thursday:
John Ely is actually in big-league camp…
Tony Jackson, today:
Ely isn’t even in big-league camp…
However, I believe he was right both times. Minor league camp didn’t open until this week, so anyone who was there last week probably just hung around with the major leaguers for workouts.
Good stuff on the Jamie McCourt filings
by Shawn Hoffman at Baseball Prospectus., regarding the projected revenue and flat payroll. Money quote:
Unless they’re all on some kind of psychoactive drug cocktail, or possibly preparing for the next round of MLB collusion, there’s no way those projections are anything but a sales tool, pitching an investor on what they think he’ll want to hear.
Thats the feeling I got when I read all the crap in the first place. If you take their projections out into infinity we’ll be spending $29.97 on the budget in the year 3000 while Jamie is drawing a salary of 4 trillion.
Year 3000 prediction
J1 RepkoBot will be pissed that S1 PosednikDroid has inched in front of him on the Left/Center HoverField 4D depth chart.
Manny is brought back to life as the first success in cryonics in the year 2999. Steroids are now given out for free to all MLB players and Manny hits 25 homeruns a week and plays all three outfield positions. His dreadlocks however did not make the thaw and now sports a hair-do like Dennis Rodman(now part android).
The Dodgers’ average ticket price was $29.40 in 2007. They sold 3.86 million tickets, meaning ticket sales accounted for about $113 million, or 41 percent of that year’s total revenue. Forbes had their gate receipts at $103 million, and total MLB gate receipts at 36 percent of the teams’ revenue.
I suspect the ticket sales (and pct. of total revenue) is even higher than this. I seriously doubt that the price of the average unsold ticket was $29.40; I think it was lower, perhaps significantly. Almost all the high priced seats sell. A large majority, I think, of the unsold seats are the cheaper and farther away ones – the vast expanse of the ends of the reserved deck, the outer corners of LF and upper deck, the outer edges of the lower decks.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
Colletti ranked 26th out of all GMs
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/tim_marchman/03/03/gm.rankings/1.html
Strangely, #28 is missing. Finishing behind Ned are Sabean, Wade, & Moore.
Compare his summary for Jim Hendry (16th!) to Colletti's
Hendry:
It’s tempting to overreact to a lousy 2009 and to heavily count bad contracts doled out to players such as Alfonso Soriano and Milton Bradley against Hendry, but the truth is that he built a consistently successful team that had every chance to win a World Series at its peak and just didn’t, through no real fault of his. The Cubs are now likely in for a hangover as the core of that team ages, but given the team’s history he was right to go for it all.Colletti:(after starting Minaya’s summary with “Here we start moving into the territory of those few general managers who might be said to actively harm their team’s chances.”)
The Dodgers have done well under Colletti, but that seems to have been to some extent despite him, given bizarre moves like his signings of Juan Pierre and Andruw Jones and his trade of catching prospect Carlos Santana for fill-in third baseman Casey Blake. You only get so much credit for not trading the likes of Matt Kemp and Clayton Kershaw for fourth outfielders.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
I mean, couldn’t you simply paraphrase the Hendry summary into a Colletti one, except for that last sentence?
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
Maybe Colletti gets the edge for stealing Reed Johnson away from him. (I agree that Hendry should be lower—I haven’t seen a single publication pick the Cubs to win the division, AND they have an expensive aging roster.)
You only get so much credit for not trading the likes of Matt Kemp and Clayton Kershaw for fourth outfielders.
You can also give him credit for not trading Andre Ethier, unlike the 10th best general manager on the list. This analysis looks more like it’s about the writer’s personal taste versus actual results. The Dodgers were a Rafael Furcal error and a few bullpen blowups away from 2 straight pennants, largely thanks to the moves he made. Even assuming it is his fault and not Frank’s that the Dodgers had to give up Carlos Santana, Casey Blake is hardly a “fill-in”.
So much more can be said here, but I think the fact that Colletti gets hit so hard for his “bizarre” signings, while anyone who gives too much grief to Hendry for his is “overreacting”, pretty much says it all. And Juan Pierre did far more good for the Dodgers than Milton Bradley did for the Cubs, just like John Ely and Jon Link are expected to do more good than Carlos Silva.
Again
This is an example of not really looking deeply into the make up of the teams, if you are going to judge Ned Colletti on his entire run as Dodger GM and put it all on the shoulders of the young players, I think that is wrong. Certainly, in 2009, any measurement of the team would show that the team benefited greatly by the players he acquired and in the end while certainly the free agents signings of Schmidt, Pierre and Jones did not work out for the most part, I can’t believe there are 25 other GMs who rank higher than Ned in the past 4 years.
And in 2009, the Dodgers don’t win the West without Ned’s acquisitions.
Almost looks like the guy
who had a website called “Fire Ned Colletti” wrote the Colletti part. Whatever happened to that guy anyway?
ned
still Colletti bought Schmidt and Jones and now Carroll—-He has done some good things but he is still only average-better that the last few GMs the Dodgers have had though—I would only put him in the Middle of the pack of all the major league GMs—Remember He has alot of money to work with—100 million is a good payroll to have-alot of teams would love to have that much money—To me the Angels have done way better with just about the same money-But teams like the Cubs and Mets have done way worse!
MI'M going out on a limb here
.309/.495/525.
Let’s hope Loney can get it going batting behind him. Is this the projected lineup.
Furcal
Ethier
Bison
Manny
Loney
The Chin
2nd base
Martin
Pitcher
by Skunkburner on Mar 4, 2010 2:23 PM PST via mobile reply actions
He want to play a few more years. He’s going to have to put up or shut up. I’ve got high hopes.
by Skunkburner on Mar 4, 2010 2:57 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
Wow!
I’d venture to guess if Manny puts up a .495 OBP, it will be because of a slugging in the .650 range or so. :)
The fewest number of plate appearances one can have to achieve a .495 OBP (that is, between .4945 and .49549) is 91
Better chance of taking place?
Someone SLGs .900 over a full season
Someone OBPs .700 over a full season
.900
I think we saw nearly both with Bonds. Even when it got ridiculous and he was walked all the time (232 times!!!) is OBP was .609. He got up to .863 SLG in his 73 HR year.
Basically I think if someone ends up putting up a .900 SLG, his OBP will get close to .700 anyway since he’d be walked all the time.
and, no, Bryce Harper will not come close to either number :)
Timely. I just sent you an article from the WSJ last year talking about some of the high school phenoms who had made the cover of SI and what happened to them. The reason I did that was on si.com earlier today they had a cover showing a Texas hurler named Jon Peters who was “can’t miss”, but eventually missed. He’s one of the guys in the article.
This Harper kid is so over-hyped he just has to crash and burn. Sad.
If Belliard wins the job, he may hit 7th, but if DeWitt does, I could see Torre batting him 8th “to keep the pressure off him.”
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
He’s not good enough to hit 8th under the Torre logic
by oshea2002 on Mar 4, 2010 3:55 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
line-up
309-495-494——-134 starts looks right—but the Line-up doesnt
Furcal
Kemp
Eithier
Manny
Loney
Blake
Dewitt/Belliard
Martin
also keep it this way as much as possible—Hitters get used to know how to hit in regard to where they hit in the line-up
FUK MANNY!!1! HE SUX!!~!
Dodgers never should have traded Pedro Guerrero
Manny
I think Manny will be fine—but I dont think he will play as much as people are saying—Her are my pics 130 games 475 ABs 300 avg 30 Hrs 90 Rbis
still worth having him—and iI think Anderson will play much more than Johnson
This will keep Manny fresh throughout the season and the Play-offs
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