2010 Player Profile: Big, Bad Jonathan Broxton
by Eric Stephen on Mar 5, 2010 7:00 AM PST
in Community Projections
149 comments
Jonathan Broxton is one of the best relief pitchers in Dodger history. Yet, the big man with the soft voice seems under-appreciated. Part of that is due to a pair of NLCS Game 4 failures in each of the last two seasons. Another part is that Broxton has a set of unrealistic expectations thrust upon him, thanks to the great run of Dodger closers for the better part of the last decade. Take a look at the past eight years, and look at the shoes Broxton had to fill:
| Dodger Closers | |||||
| Year | Closer | K/9 | ERA | FIP | FIP rank* |
| 2002 | Eric Gagne | 12.46 | 1.97 | 1.80 | 2nd |
| 2003 | Eric Gagne | 14.98 | 1.20 | 0.86 | 1st |
| 2004 | Eric Gagne | 12.46 | 2.19 | 2.05 | 3rd |
| 2005 | Yhency Brazoban | 7.56 | 5.33 | 4.84 | 106th |
| 2006 | Takashi Saito | 12.29 | 2.07 | 1.87 | 3rd |
| 2007 | Takashi Saito | 10.91 | 1.40 | 2.57 | 7th |
| 2008 | Takashi Saito | 11.49 | 2.40 | 2.00 | 3rd |
| 2009 |
Jonathan Broxton | 13.50 | 2.61 | 1.97 | 2nd |
| *among MLB relievers, min. 50 IP (Saito had 47 IP in 2008) | |||||
In six of the seven seasons before Broxton took the closer role over full time, the Dodgers had one of the very best closers in baseball, with only a blip in 2005 (which of course we all know never happened). Broxton had big shoes to fill following Gagne and Saito, yet fill them he did. In his first full season as closer, Broxton was awesome, as he has been throughout his Dodger career.
Broxton is the all-time Dodger franchise leader in strikeouts per nine innings, at 11.92. I know ERA isn't the best way to measure relievers, but Broxton's 146 career ERA+ is fourth in franchise history among those with 200 or more innings. Broxton led MLB relievers last year in perfect outings, with 32.
Yet, what seems to be preventing Broxton from ascending in the minds of many is Matt Effing Stairs. In Game 4 of the 2008 NLCS, Broxton allowed a tie-breaking, two-run eighth inning home run to Stairs that hasn't landed yet. In 2009, again in Game 4, Broxton faced a slumping Stairs (four for his last 50) up by one in the ninth inning with one out, but pitched around him, walking him on four pitches, in a game eventually won on a Jimmy Rollins two-run double. Broxton figures to be again among the best relievers in baseball yet again in 2010, but he'll need postseason success to get his just due.
Broxton has had some extreme home/road splits over the last few seasons:
| Home | Road | |||||||||||
| Year | IP | BB/9 | K/9 | ERA | FIP | x-FIP | IP | BB/9 | K/9 | ERA | FIP | x-FIP |
| 2007 | 45.2 | 2.56 | 11.82 | 1.38 | 1.53 | 2.49 | 36.1 | 2.97 | 9.66 | 4.71 | 4.23 | 3.17 |
| 2008 | 39.1 | 2.97 | 11.21 | 2.75 | 1.71 | 2.71 | 29.2 | 4.25 | 11.83 | 3.64 | 3.00 | 3.23 |
| 2009 | 45.0 | 1.80 | 14.60 | 0.40 | 0.45 | 1.03 | 31.0 | 5.81 | 11.90 | 5.81 | 4.16 | 3.54 |
Fun fact about Broxton: On July 24, 2006, Broxton allowed a three-run homer to San Diego's Mike Cameron, breaking a 3-3 tie. Since that game, Broxton has appeared in 143 regular season games at Dodger Stadium, thrown 147.2 innings, facing a total of 564 batters during that span, and still has yet to give up a dinger at home since.
Contract Status
Broxton made a total of $1.975 million in 2009, including incentives. He signed a two-year deal in the offseason for a total of $11 million, which runs through his arbitration years. His $4 million salary in 2010 is more than he has made in his entire career combined to date, and he can earn up to $500,000 in incentives in both 2010 and 2011.
| Year | Age | IP | BB/9 | K/9 | ERA | FIP | x-FIP | tRA | ERA+ |
| 2006 | 22 | 76.1 | 3.9 | 11.4 | 2.59 | 3.13 | 3.28 | 3.27 | 173 |
| 2007 | 23 | 82.0 | 2.7 | 10.9 | 2.85 | 2.73 | 2.79 | 2.99 | 155 |
| 2008 | 24 | 69.0 | 3.5 | 11.5 | 3.13 | 2.26 | 2.93 | 2.72 | 133 |
| 2009 | 25 | 76.0 | 3.4 | 13.5 | 2.61 | 1.97 | 2.05 | 1.93 | 151 |
| 2010 Projections - Age 26 Season | |||||||||
| Bill James | 80.0 | 3.5 | 11.7 | 2.36 | 2.38 | ||||
| CHONE | 68.0 | 3.3 | 11.8 | 2.51 | 2.44 | ||||
| Marcel | 70.0 | 3.3 | 10.7 | 3.09 | 2.96 | ||||
| Baseball HQ | 73.0 | 3.2 | 12.1 | 2.84 | 2.60 | ||||
| ZiPS | 80.0 | 3.2 | 12.3 | 2.25 | 2.29 | ||||
2010 Outlook
Thanks to Fangraphs, we see that besides having the fastest average fastball (97.7 mph) in MLB, Broxton became much more of a ground ball pitcher in 2009, inducing grounders in 56.1% of his balls in play (up from 44.5% the season before). If he can continue that, trend, coupling ground ball tendencies with an insane strikeout rate, Broxton looks to be as good as anyone in baseball in 2010.
What is your guess for Jonathan Broxton's 2010? Give us a prediction of ERA, WHIP, and innings pitched.
I'm going with 2.61 / 1.046 / 76
0 recs |
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Furcal, SS
Kemp, CF
Ramirez, DH
Loney. 1B
Blake, 3B
DeWitt, 2B
Martin, C
Johnson, LF
Padilla, P
by Eric Stephen on Mar 5, 2010 7:24 AM PST via mobile reply actions
Hmmm, must have gotten lost in the cut and paste
by Eric Stephen on Mar 5, 2010 7:37 AM PST via mobile up reply actions
great lineup
With the exception of the DH-driven presence of Reed Johnson, that’s the opening day lineup I want. Split up Blake and Martin with the lefty DeWitt.
dh
it would be nice to have the DH in the NL though—long overdue as far as Im concerned
dodgers
dump reed for garrett—sorry guys—just wait and see who does it best and if and when the DH happens—let Garrett and Manny use it and each play LF—no need for Reed at all sorry-inter league surly use manny as DH no-brainer
carroll
dump carroll also—-give dewiit the job—put reed and or carrol in the minors as backup-id even keep Hu up or get Blaylock before one of the florida teams do and he will cost less
backups
ca-ausmus-1b—blaylock—2b—-belliard—-ss hu 3b-blaylock—Of anderson
12 pitchers—-kershaw-billingsly-karuda-padillia-mcdonald
broxton-sherrill-kuo-tronsoco-bellisario-weaver-stults
furcal-kemp-eithier-manny-loney-blake-dewitt-martin
relief pitchers are used way too many times-should not pitch back to back—use sherrill as a closer more-and kuo and tronsoco as set-up-for most of the season-then in the play-offs they will be fresher also—I think in the future there will be 2 closers on every team just because of injuries and wanting thier careers to last—just like starters dont pitch 300 innings anymore-we have 2 good closers-lets use them
Sox lineup
Per Mark Gonzales / Chicago Trib:
Mitchell cf
Vizquel ss
Quentin rf
Konerko 1b
Rios dh
Botts lf
Nix 3b
Lillibridge 2b
Lucy c
Buehrle p
two old friends missing from that lineup
by Eric Stephen on Mar 5, 2010 7:29 AM PST via mobile reply actions
Per a few different tweets, GA will wear 00
by Eric Stephen on Mar 5, 2010 7:30 AM PST via mobile reply actions
I’m not a math major, but there’s no such thing as “double zero.” It’s just zero. Unless Garrett wants to be #100 and the 1 doesn’t fit.
There is when the only purpose of the number is as an identifier
by Eric Stephen on Mar 5, 2010 7:43 AM PST via mobile up reply actions
foreshadowing
spring batting average? (minus one zero.)
There's no need to fear, Underdog is here! / Broncos/Dodgers fan in Niners/Raiders/Giants country, and damned proud of it.
Torre will be on The Herd on ESPN radio just after 8
by Eric Stephen on Mar 5, 2010 7:44 AM PST via mobile reply actions
What is up
with that insane walk rate on the road? Does he miss his Dodger bullpen easy chair that much?
Maybe he doesn't sleep well in hotels
perhaps his roomate snores.
by Michael White on Mar 5, 2010 8:10 AM PST up reply actions
Speaking of jerseys
from Dylan Hernandez:
Andre Ethier offered to give Garret Anderson his No. 16 jersey, according to clubhouse manager Mitch Poole
I don’t like this at all. It would be a travesty if a great hitter like Andre is relegated to a number in the 60s because he feels the need to give his up to a washed up vet.
1) Understood.
2) That’s because Manny is quirky like that, ala Rodman and Artest. It’s expected.
3) Disagree completely. Tradition says star players should wear a low number by baseball standards.
Why do you assume Ethier will be “relegated to a number in the 60s”? That seems like an absurd leap to me.
by Eric Stephen on Mar 5, 2010 10:19 AM PST up reply actions
Do you know Troncoso didn’t simply choose 67?
by Eric Stephen on Mar 5, 2010 10:26 AM PST up reply actions
I don’t know that for a fact, but it is highly unlikely. He’s up there with guys that were just added to the roster (Guerra, Jansen, Link…).
I’m going to go out on a limb that Ethier has a little more pull than Troncoso in choosing a number he wants, even if it means bumping another player (think Repko, 17) who didn’t finish 6th in the MVP voting last year.
by Eric Stephen on Mar 5, 2010 10:30 AM PST up reply actions
Very possible
that Garrett Anderson was someone Andre looked upto and this is his way of paying that back. GA was an easy player to root for during his stay with the Angels. Graceful outfielder with a sweet swing, his sabre numbers left much to be desired compared to Tim Salmon but 500 doubles were fun to watch.
What major league players on any team have worn 00?
I don’t think I can recall anyone.
Yup
Don’t give away 16, and please drop the J. Do I get a refund on my Ethier jersey? Once the J is removed from his back, the weight will be lifted and shifted to his bat. He can pay tribute to his mom on his eye paint like Tebow.
by Skunkburner on Mar 5, 2010 8:47 AM PST via mobile reply actions
Broxton
OK Eric, Broxton is a good young pitcher who is getting better. Granted that he has some very large shoes to fill….even for a big guy. But you will never catch me using the words “awesome” and “Broxton” in the same sentence until I see him save some NLCS and World Series games. I’ll be rooting for the big guy to step up..
DezertWolf
Yea and he was pretty dominant in the save for game 2, but let’s just ignore that.
by robotmadeofnails on Mar 5, 2010 10:23 AM PST up reply actions
How many NLCS games did Saito and Gagne save?
by Michael White on Mar 5, 2010 8:53 AM PST up reply actions
I hold George Sherrill partly accountable for game 4 last year.
by robotmadeofnails on Mar 5, 2010 10:23 AM PST up reply actions
But it’s that kind of logic that says Ted Williams, Barry Bonds, pre-2009 A-Rod, et al, are not great players.
by Eric Stephen on Mar 5, 2010 10:45 AM PST up reply actions
How so?
that seems quite a leap to me. Mike asked how many save Saito and Gagne had in the postseason. Since they never got a chance that seemed just as relevant to ask how many blown saves they had.
Gotcha
I guess my comment was more aimed at DezertWolf
by Eric Stephen on Mar 5, 2010 10:51 AM PST up reply actions
But the origional point was that
he doesn’t view Broxton as a great pitcher until he saves games in both the NLCS and World Series. My response was intended to ask, in a way, if that meant he didn’t view Gagne and Saito as great closers either.
by Michael White on Mar 5, 2010 10:55 AM PST up reply actions
Which isn't fair
since they never had a chance to blow a postseason game. Now if they had dominated during the season then blown two games in two straight years that had a huge impact on the team moving onto the World Series that would be a legitimate question.
Just seems that bringing guys into the equation who never had a chance is not rebutting his point.
BIlly Wagner would have been an excellent example of a great pitcher who has been unable to carry his regular season success over to the postseason. Did he consider him a “great” pitcher? It would be curious to hear what Astro and Met fans have to say on that. I mean by any metric Billy Wagner was a great closer but as a fan of those teams did you start wondering what the hell was wrong with him that he couldn’t come close to replicating that success in the postseason?
Noooooooo!
Gurnick is reporting the Dodgers remain interested in Looper
Even on just a minor league deal, I don’t like this, because you know he would end up being the fifth starter.
Meh
We don’t know that will happen, just like all the concerns last year about Weaver, Milton and Estes being given the number 5 job last year. McDonald got it, lost it, and Weaver and Milton earned their way into the rotation.
by Michael White on Mar 5, 2010 9:14 AM PST up reply actions
Torre notes
“Starters” will go two innings (which today means Padilla, Ramon Ortiz, and Haeger)
On Kemp hitting second:
A big part of it is that he’ll be hitting in front of some thunder and get pitches to hit. Anytime you put somebody at the top of the order you’re going to get better pitches to hit.
On lack of an ace:
We’ve got four guys that if they pitch up to their potential, we’ll be fine. There’s no soft spot with these guys, its more important depth wise.
On how many at-bats Manny will get:
Whatever he feels he’s good for, he’s one of those guys who knows what he has to do.
This is awesome (not a shocker)
Looper was a teammate of Casey Blake at Wichita State. From 1996:
Wichita State teammates showed a lot of heart, too. When relief ace Braden Looper was hit hard and took the Monday night loss in an 8-4 elimination game with Florida State, Looper had trouble keeping his composure in apologizing to his teammates for letting them down. Blake interrupted him. ’’I’d like to say something,‘’ he said, then looked at his tearful teammate. ’’Braden, first of all, you didn’t let anyone down. You wouldn’t let the team down. That’s a crock right there.‘’ The Shockers stood by their man, who was the No. 3 overall pick in Tuesday’s major league draft, selected by St. Louis.
Casey Blake, great teammate
Luckily
the 2nd most famous shocker blew his arm out after the Cubs wasted a number one pick on a guy who belonged in jail.
Wasn’t there a Witchita State player who blinded the guy in the on-deck circle when he intentionally threw at him?
by Michael White on Mar 5, 2010 10:31 AM PST up reply actions
From the White Sox:
Reminder: Today’s is the 1st of 9 webcasts, presented by Illinois Blue Cross/Blue Shield, this spring. Go to www.whitesox.com at 2 CT to see
Not sure if they mean online video or audio, but check there around noon.
Looks like it's just audio alas
There's no need to fear, Underdog is here! / Broncos/Dodgers fan in Niners/Raiders/Giants country, and damned proud of it.
Gotta take the good with the minutiae with Twitter…I had six different tweets from people I follow telling me Cole Hamels gave up a HR to Jose Bautista.
Still, I’d rather have an overload of info, that I can sift through myself, than a paucity of news.
The key is limiting the guys you follow
I only follow like 75 people.
by Michael White on Mar 5, 2010 10:32 AM PST up reply actions
only for the jokes and investment advice
by Eric Stephen on Mar 5, 2010 10:35 AM PST up reply actions
We were talking the other night about how I can not get into it or fully understand it, and he was selling it. I’m on the fence.
It has a negative stigma attached — the “I don’t want to know that so-and-so is standing in line at the DMV” crowd — but it really is the quickest, most efficient way to receive (or give) breaking news.
by Eric Stephen on Mar 5, 2010 10:40 AM PST up reply actions
The good thing is the ability to create lists…if I am away for awhile, rather than sift through the 664 people I’m following I can go to my Dodgers list and catch up on that news.
I’m still working on organizing all my followers into appropriate lists, but that helps a great deal.
by Eric Stephen on Mar 5, 2010 10:32 AM PST up reply actions
that should have read “organizing those I follow”
by Eric Stephen on Mar 5, 2010 10:34 AM PST up reply actions
Some pregame notes
Throwing out the ceremonial first pitch for today’s opener at Camelback Ranch will be Colonel Jeffrey Weed, Vice commander of the 56th fighter wing at nearby Luke Air Force Base
Dodger Talk is tonight at 6:30pm on KABC
"Team Loney" won the hitting skills competition this morning, defeating "Team Martin" and keeping its unblemished record. Following the contest, which highlighted situational hitting, baserunning, bunting, hit-and-run plays and advancing a baserunner, Dodger third base coach Larry Bowa named Ronnie Belliard and Chin-lung Hu the Co-MVP’s.
Pitching tomorrow: Stults, McDonald, Gagne, Weaver, Schlichting, Wade, and Russ Ortiz
Damn I won't be around to watch the game tomorrow
Really wanted to see Stults, McD and Gagne’s first game action (well not Stults’ first)
I imagine the “hitting skills competition” is as exciting as the skills competition of NBA All-Star weekend.
by Eric Stephen on Mar 5, 2010 10:59 AM PST up reply actions
What time
Will the game be on tomorrow?
by SeanMillerSavior on Mar 5, 2010 11:02 AM PST via mobile up reply actions
Day games shift to 1pm our time when we “spring forward” next Saturday night.
by Eric Stephen on Mar 5, 2010 11:04 AM PST up reply actions
Hope it pours tormorrow
great way to spend a Saturday if it is raining is watching the first spring training game on TV. Nice they are broadcasting more games this year.
Hey Hu won something.
OT, but wanted to do a last minute check of opinions...
I recently moved to NY. Is the following true or false?
MLB.TV is the best way to watch all of the Dodgers’ games.
Yes, if you have a decent connection
by robotmadeofnails on Mar 5, 2010 11:05 AM PST up reply actions
Extra Innings should have almost all of them. Depends whether you prefer watching on TV or computer
by Eric Stephen on Mar 5, 2010 11:06 AM PST up reply actions
Awww, the beauty of the HTPC…except for when you live in LA and get blacked out. Yes, I am bitter.
by robotmadeofnails on Mar 5, 2010 11:08 AM PST up reply actions
I prefer watching games on TV
but isn’t extra innings like $60 per month?
MLB.TV is $120 for the whole season.
EI is somewhere between $150-180 for the season. Check with your provider; they might have deals
by Eric Stephen on Mar 5, 2010 11:11 AM PST up reply actions
Nevermind. Its $200 for the season. So $200 vs. $120… but with MLB.tv I also get the radio broadcasts right?
I dont' recall ever paying 200
did they increase it? My memory is they run a special during the 1st week of the year when they televise all the games for free.
Extra Innings is better now than it used to be
They now offer both broadcasts of a given game, so you can choose which play by play you want to hear.
Of course, the problem with moving to NY is the fact that the games start at 10:00, and regional saturday broadcasts are blacked out. So if you are like me (and I barely stay awake long enough to see the end of the Dodger games now in the same time zone) Extra Innings is a lot to drop on being able to only enjoy Sunday games.
by Michael White on Mar 5, 2010 11:16 AM PST up reply actions
I guess if you are only a Dodger fan
and the only reason you are getting the package then that would be true. However I’d say if you are a Dodger/Baseball fan you’ll see plenty of baseball on East Coast time, including all the Dodger games when they visit the East Coast.
If you are only a Dodger fan then the cost of watching every game East of the Rockies during the week and all the weekend games would be worth it to you.
My brother in Baltimore watches far more 10pm Dodger games than should be humanly possible, but I would probably do the same if I lived in a different time zone.
by Eric Stephen on Mar 5, 2010 11:23 AM PST up reply actions
Also, extra innings is nice
for you if you are moving to NYC, since it is carried by your cable providers as opposed to the NFL package which is satellite dish only.
by Michael White on Mar 5, 2010 11:18 AM PST up reply actions
Thanks guys
I think I may try MLB.tv for now (especially since it shows the Spring games) and just do the monthly subscription and try and plug my computer into the tv. If that fails, then I can switch to Extra Innings.
Roku Box
I live in Ohio and I subscribe to MLB.tv, which is a good deal in my opinion. I also purchased a Roku box to stream MLB.tv to my TV. Works great and is a great option for those that subscribe to Netflix and MLB.tv.
So
The Roku costs around $100 for HD… Then you plug it into your TV and then you can stream anything on your computer through the Roku box to the TV?
Roku connects to your TV via HDMI cable and you just run a ethernet cable from the Roku Box to your home network switch. The computer is no longer in the equation, but you use your home network to stream the game. The performance is pretty good (it may rebuffer once per game) and the quality is actually really good IMO.
Thanks
Sounds awesome. I think I may get one. I guess you need to have your home network router set up near your tv?
This link should work to listen online. I don’t think you need to login.
Game thread will be up at 11:30
Matt Kemp says he is happy to wear #27
but his favorite number is 23.
Clip of the catch he refers to in that video.
(mlb.com’s video search is being a little bitch with me. The links to the videos beyond the first page of search hits don’t work.)
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
broxton
just want him to stay healthy——40 saves—-2.50 era—-75 innings 5-5 won lost
all-star and hopefully great in play=offs and at least 5 more good years! maybe even 7
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NL West Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
San Diego
|
76 | 59 | .562 | 0 | Lost 10 |
|
San Francisco
|
76 | 61 | .554 | 1 | Won 2 |
|
Colorado
|
72 | 64 | .529 | 4.5 | Won 3 |
|
Los Angeles
|
69 | 68 | .503 | 8 | Lost 2 |
|
Arizona
|
56 | 81 | .408 | 21 | Lost 2 |
(updated 9.5.2010 at 7:48 PM PDT)
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