Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Pro Quality. Fan Perspective.
Login-facebook
Around SBN: The Worst Team Ever Projected?

2010 Player Profile: Chad Billingsley

Chad Billingsley had the tale of two seasons last year.  He started out hot, earning a spot on the All-Star team with a stellar first half, but faded down the stretch:

Months GS IP W-L BB/9 K/9 ERA FIP
Apr-Jun 17 112.1 9-4 4.09 8.81 3.12 3.25
Jul-Oct 15 84.0 3-7 3.75 7.39 5.25 4.46

Billingsley struggled to the point that he did not make a postseason start (although he was scheduled to start Game 4 of the NLDS -- you know, if the Cardinals would have won a game).  Billingsley, as he told Tony Jackson of ESPN last month, chalked his struggles up to pressing too hard:

"There were times in the middle of a game -- and it might not have just been when a guy drove in a run, but maybe it was a guy leading off an inning with a double, something like that -- where I would think maybe I should have used a different pitch selection," Billingsley said. "Then maybe you try to overthrow or try to do too much. That's the mental part of it. But the only way to get better is by doing it, by being out there on the mound. You can't simulate it in the bullpen or by throwing batting practice. You have to be out there facing hitters in a game situation.

"You can't dwell on it. Sometimes, you throw your best pitch and a guy gets a hit and drives in a run. You can't do anything about that now. You just have to bear down and go after the next guy."

Billingsley's career 119 ERA+ is the eighth best in Dodger history through age 24.  This is the point in the exercise when we all hope he's more Don Drysdale than Ismael Valdes.

Previously on True Blue LA

Contract Status

Signed a one-year deal for $3.85 million for 2010.  Billingsley is arbitration eligible through 2012.

2010 Outlook

Year Age IP BB/9 K/9 ERA FIP x-FIP tRA ERA+
2006 21 90.0 5.80 5.90 3.80 4.88 5.39 4.62 118
2007 22 147.2 3.92 8.63 3.31 4.02 4.14 4.07 134
2008 23 200.2 3.59 9.01 3.14 3.35 3.62 3.57 133
2009 24 196.1 3.94 8.21 4.03 3.82 4.04 3.92 98
2010 Projections - Age 26 Season
Bill James 185.0 3.94 8.61 3.65 3.72
CHONE 182.0 3.76 8.65 3.71 3.67
Marcel 173.0 3.75 8.53 3.69 3.78
Baseball HQ 203.0 3.68 8.38 3.64 3.72
ZiPS 199.1 3.43 8.58 3.34 3.48

Billingsley still has a lot going for him.  He's 25 years old, and has a career track record that stacks up well with the best young pitchers in the gameJustin Verlander and Felix Hernandez, both similar to Billingsley at his current service time, were able to parlay a great fourth season into huge five year contracts ($78 million for King Felix, $80 million for Verlander).  Might a similar future await Billingsley?

I vote yes:  3.31 ERA, 1.256 WHIP, 211 innings

What is your guess for Chad Billingsley's 2010?  Give us a prediction of ERA, WHIP, and innings pitched.

Comment 19 comments  |  0 recs  | 

Do you like this story?

Comments

Display:

ERA: 3.12
WHIP: 1.24
IP: 199

by silverwidow on Mar 7, 2010 8:29 AM PST reply actions  

Bills

I think he goes..3.40ERA; 1.28 whip and 208 IP…and FIP of 3.7

by coloblue on Mar 7, 2010 8:29 AM PST reply actions  

In the 2010 projections chart, which column is which?

by JonWeisman on Mar 7, 2010 8:35 AM PST reply actions  

It flows from the earlier table, although without borders on the table it looks a bit funky

by Eric Stephen on Mar 7, 2010 8:37 AM PST up reply actions  

ERA: 2.93
WHIP: 1.08
IP: 205

by Michael White on Mar 7, 2010 8:36 AM PST reply actions  

Very optimistic WHIP in my opinion.

by silverwidow on Mar 7, 2010 8:55 AM PST up reply actions  

3.09 ERA
1.18 WHIP
202 IP

by MammothDodger on Mar 7, 2010 8:51 AM PST reply actions  

Like this pic of Billingsley, with Loney, at Matt Kemp’s “”http://twitpic.com/176zy1" target="new">Ante Up For Autism" last night:

by Eric Stephen on Mar 7, 2010 9:29 AM PST reply actions  

He means this pic. :)
Uh, oh, I don’t like Bills deer caught in the headlights look. ;)

The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.

by David Young on Mar 7, 2010 11:14 AM PST up reply actions  

yes

and apparently Phillies hitters can smell fear

by shooterm1 on Mar 7, 2010 8:53 PM PST up reply actions  

My prediction

3.52 era
1.24 whip
195 innings

by SeanMillerSavior on Mar 7, 2010 9:32 AM PST via mobile reply actions  

So Alfredo griffin is taking foul and he balls from fans in bp at the angels park. Man. I thought the dodgers were bad off financially.

by Ivdown on Mar 7, 2010 10:01 AM PST reply actions  

3.49/1.31/199

Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen

by Phil Gurnee on Mar 7, 2010 11:02 AM PST reply actions  

3.42 ERA, 1.277 WHIP, 205 IP

The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.

by David Young on Mar 7, 2010 11:16 AM PST reply actions  

2.86 ERA, 1.192 WHIP, 220 IP

by Tripon on Mar 7, 2010 11:16 AM PST reply actions  

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

A place for Dodger fans to congregate without spending $15 on parking.

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recommended FanPosts

100_1427_small
Dodger Blogger Softball Tourney Update
2011-philly-game-me__2__small
2011 Dodgers Spreadsheet Project
Ed-ak286_scully_g_20091006143938_small
It is time to play - Name the BA Top 30

Recent FanPosts

Albatross_small
All-star predictions
Img_0247_small
Dodgers.com might have a job opening...
Small
Law Ranks Dodger System #12
Small
DODGERS -- 2 GREAT SEATS FOR SALE
Small
Joe Torre Horrow Show
Small
Are you the Biggest Dodger Fan?
P1010315_small
1st Trip to LA

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >

2012 Dodgers Payroll

Italics denote estimates
Pos No Player 2012 Salary
C 17 Ellis $500,000 team control
1B 7 Loney $6,375,000
2B 14 Ellis $2,500,000
3B 5 Uribe $8,000,000
SS 9 Gordon $485,000 team control
LF 21 Rivera $4,000,000
CF 27 Kemp $10,000,000
RF 16 Ethier $10,950,000

IF/OF 6 Hairston $2,250,000
OF 10 Gwynn $850,000
2B/3B 3 Kennedy $800,000
C 18 Treanor $850,000
IF 12 Sellers $485,000 team control

SP 22 Kershaw $6,000,000
SP 58 Billingsley $9,000,000
SP 29 Lilly $12,000,000
SP 37 Capuano $3,000,000
SP 44
Harang $3,000,000

CL 54 Guerra $485,000 team control
RHP 74
Jansen $500,000 team control
RHP 55 Guerrier $4,750,000
RHP Coffey $1,000,000
RHP 66 MacDougal $650,000
LHP 57 Elbert $485,000 team control
RHP 36
Hawksworth $500,000 team control

TJ 41 De La Rosa $485,000 team control



Manny $8,087,432 deferred


Andruw $3,375,000 deferred


Pierre $3,050,000 deferred
Furcal $3,000,000 deferred
Kuroda $2,000,000 deferred
Garland $1,500,000 option buyout
Blake $1,250,000 option buyout

Totals
$112,162,432

For more detailed information, click here.

Players on 40-man roster used as roster
fillers until moves are made.

Current 40-man roster count: 40
(not including Belisario)

2012 Non-Roster Invitees

No Player Age*
63 Jose Ascanio rhp
27
61 Alberto Castillo lhp
36
60 Matt Chico lhp
29
35 John Grabow lhp
33
59 Angel Guzman rhp
30
47 Wil Ledezma lhp
31
72 Shane Lindsay rhp
27
62 Fernando Nieve rhp 29
73 Scott Rice lhp 30
70 Will Savage rhp
27
71 Ryan Tucker rhp
25

30 Josh Bard c 34
82 Griff Erickson c 24
81 Matt Wallachc 26
67 Jeff Baisley 3b/1b 29
62 Luis Cruz ss/2b 28
33 Josh Fields 3b 29
64 Lance Zawadzki if 27
56 Cory Sullivan of 32

*Age on June 30, 2012

NRI count: 19

For more info, click here.


Manager

Eric___ned___reporters_2011_trade_deadline_small Eric Stephen

Editors

100_1427_small Phil Gurnee

Dgy_small David Young

Hanauma_bay_small Chad Moriyama

2501_small Michael White

Raptors_small Brandon Lennox