2010 Player Profile: Scott Elbert- One of many 5th Starter Candidates
by Michael White on Mar 9, 2010 7:00 AM PST
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For a good illustration of the ups and down minor league players go through in their careers, notice the high's and ultimately low that Scott Elbert went through during week 18 last season. On Friday August 7th, Elbert was named the starter for the Sunday game against the Braves, however Elbert was called upon Friday night to pitch in relief once the game went into extra innings. The outing didn't go very well as Elbert gave up the go-ahead run followed by a 3 run home run. As Sunday rolled around, not only was Elbert not the starter for the Dodgers, he had been sent back to AAA the day before. During the span of 24 hours, Elbert went from being the probable starting pitcher on Sunday, to being optioned back to the minors. Brutal.
Despite not being given much of a look at the major league level, Elbert, the Dodgers 2004 first round draft pick now entering his age 24 season, had a very strong year in 2009 in the minors. In his first full year after undergoing shoulder surgery in 2007, Elbert was named theDodgers minor league pitcher of the year with solid statistics split between AA and AAA. Control continues to be the issue with Elbert, and the lack of control has my fellow bloggers using the shorthand W.A.L (wild ass lefty) when discussing Elbert's outings. Yesterday's spring training outing was par for the course in this regard as Elbert walked 1, hit another yet struck out 3 in his two innings of work.
Aside: For a detailed scouting report on Scott Elbert, see Memories of Kevin Malone prospect profile on Elbert.
| Year | Age | IP | BB/9 | K/9 | ERA | FIP | x-FIP | tRA | ERA+ | ||||||||||
| 2008- AA | 22 | 41.1 | 4.35 | 10.02 | 2.40 | 3.13 | |||||||||||||
| 2009- AA | 23 | 62.1 | 4.33 | 12.56 | 3.90 | 3.14 | |||||||||||||
| 2009- AAA | 23 | 33.2 | 3.74 | 10.16 | 3.74 | 3.14 | |||||||||||||
| 2009- MLB | 23 | 19.2 | 3.20 | 9.61 | 5.03 | 4.67 | 3.49 | 4.33 | 78 | ||||||||||
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| CHONE | 47 | 4.60 | 10.72 | 3.64 | 3.76 | ||||||||||||||
| Marcel | 35 | 3.60 | 7.97 | 4.63 | 4.57 | ||||||||||||||
| Baseball HQ | 58 | 4.03 | 8.84 | 4.03 | 3.92 | ||||||||||||||
2010 Outlook
I believe Elbert will start the season in the minors. Of the candidates for the 5th starter spot, Haeger and Stults are out of options and will be given the first look by the club to start the season in the rotation while the other will likely be designated for assignment. Another candidate, James McDonald, figures to have the upper hand in the competition with Elbert for a spot on the 25 man roster, as McDonald was able to post impressive numbers as a reliever in 2009 (2.72 ERA, 3.53 FIP in 41 games) and the Dodgers already have 2 solid left hander relievers on the 25 man roster in George Sherrill and Hong-Chih Kuo. Elbert will again need to impress in the minor league ranks to put himself in the position for the occasional spot start. That's not to say the organization doesn't remain high on Elbert. As mentioned above Elbert did win the minor league pitcher of the year award last season and is reportedly viewed by Ned Colletti as the more likely starting pitcher in the future compared to McDonald. Interestingly, Torre is reported to have the opposite projection (McDonald starter, Elbert reliever) for the two going forward, and while Colletti technically outranks Torre, its the manager who will ultimately make the call for who is placed in the starting rotations. With that in mind, Elbert will need to impress Torre (as McDonald did late in 2008) in his major league stints in order to secure a starting job in the future. I predict Elbert will spend more time with the major league club in 2010 in a role of long reliever and spot starter and will post:
ERA 3.95, WHIP 1.35, FIP 4.10 in 43 games and 2 starts.
What are your community projections for Scott Elbert?
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Elbert
I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s in Torre’s doghouse. Might spend most of the year in ABQ.
ERA: 4.20
WHIP: 1.36
14 games
0 starts
I heart Elbert
but I can’t get the Sherrill to Minnesota thought out of my head. Good thinking there, silverwidow. Maybe Elbert could just take Sherrill’s spot . . .
Twins have a young catcher, Wilson Ramos, that would definitely work as a return. He was rated their #2 prospect, but they have the greatest catcher in the world.
I don’t see Minnesota doing that. They will just go with Rauch or Guerrier as closer rather than take on more salary in Sherrill.
They didn't spend
$100 Million in payroll to take a chance on those guys to close games for them. Plus they might have insurance on Nathan which would give them some spending money.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
They like Guerrier though. And speculation is that Gardenhire likes Rauch as well (who has closing experience).
Also, that would require the Dodgers being willing to part with Sherrill, which I have seen no indication of, especially in a deal where we aren’t getting a starting pitcher in return.
Your second point is a good one. Kuo is, well Kuo. Belisario is still being refused entry into the country. Not sure the Dodgers see it as the right time to move their setup man for a prospect.
by Michael White on Mar 9, 2010 8:18 AM PST up reply actions
The Twins are easily a contender this season, they have a great lineup but their rotation seems a bit suspect. I think they were counting on Nathan to ensure they had a shutdown bullpen to make up for some of depth issues in the rotation. I am sure they have some good arms, but I would imagine they would like to have someone with a history of success in the closer position. I don’t think Rauch is that guy.
I agree with this
The Twins are likely going to end up going with Guerrier and Rauch. However, they will need bullpen depth. Maybe a more realistic trade would involve sending Corey Wade if he comes back healthy. Maybe we can get back a decent prospect at a position where the Dodgers are thin (i.e. 3B, C, OF)
Dodgers lineup: Furcal SS Kemp CF Ethier RF Ramirez DH Loney 1B Belliard 3B DeWitt 2B Paul LF Ausmus C Kuroda RHP
by Eric Stephen on Mar 9, 2010 7:50 AM PST via mobile reply actions
I forgot
What’s the deal with Belliard’s contract? Can we still cut him for a fraction of his 2010 salary? I’m thinking DeWitt almost has the 2b job locked up [I know it’s early] and Belliard might be redundant with Carroll around. Sure Belliard bring power to a bench role, but he’s no sure thing to me.
Belliard can still be cut, although I think that’s highly unlikely. If they cut him now, they owe him 30 days termination pay. It’s a 183-day season, so $825,000 × 30/183 = $135,246.
If they cut him within 15 days of the start of the regular season (March 20 or later, which would be the most likely date), they would owe him 45 days termination pay, or $202,869.
Of course, this is all if he doesn’t get down to 209. If he does that at any point in ST, the contract becomes guaranteed and they would owe him all $825k
I like keeping DeWitt at second
For one, it probably means that Casey Blake really is just being cautious and there is no cause for concern. Also, DeWitt needs the reps at second, not third where he has always been solid.
by Michael White on Mar 9, 2010 7:55 AM PST up reply actions
Speaking of ex-Beard
from Tony Jackson:
Casey Blake’s back feeling better. Says he’ll test it later today, won’t do anything that hurts
QUestion for Casey Blake
Any chance loss of beard affected your balance/equilibrium and put too much weight on the back?
There's no need to fear, Underdog is here! / Broncos/Dodgers fan in Niners/Raiders/Giants country, and damned proud of it.
Reminder
for today’s game (on Prime Ticket), scheduled pitchers include:
Kuroda, Haeger, Kuo, Sherrill, Broxton
Nice
I was wondering when our elite relievers would get some action.
by Michael White on Mar 9, 2010 8:07 AM PST up reply actions
Would you guys do me a favor and not post any game-related info here today. I’m recording the game and want to watch it later tonight. Thanks ;)
Haha! Speaking of that, I forgot to record the damn game today. Maybe I can sneak home before lunch to set the DVR…
I thought you kids had newfangled ways to record your shows when you ain’t at home!
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
Any chance the video will be online today?
by robotmadeofnails on Mar 9, 2010 10:30 AM PST up reply actions
I missed this last night
Jon Weisman noted that Josh Suchon is doing PBP (I’m assuming with Steve Lyons) today on Prime Ticket.
Ken Levine is doing PBP, with analyst Lyons, tomrorow
Amezaga
Gurnick had this note on him from yesterday:
Versatile enough to play infield and outfield when healthy, he underwent microfracture surgery on his left knee in August, was non-tendered by Florida and hasn’t healed enough to be available for any spring games. The Dodgers are looking at the former Angel for the second half.
Sherrill trade conjecture
can post here.
http://www.truebluela.com/2010/3/9/1364329/joe-nathan-completes-the-trifecta
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
Rockies today
Pitching order likely to be Jimenez, Smith, Speier, Reynolds and Alburquerque. Graham and Johnston travel as insurance.
Yes, the Rockies have a pitcher named Al Albuquerque! I’d like to think his first name is short for Albuquerque.
Inside the Rockies has the full travel list here.
Rox
Gonzalez RF
Fowler CF
Mora 2B
Smith LF
Iannetta C
Stewart 3B
Spilborghs DH
Barmes SS
Kindel 1B
Jimenez RHP
by Eric Stephen on Mar 9, 2010 9:47 AM PST via mobile reply actions
Torre on 2B
We’ll probably name one when we get back from Taiwan. There’s no reason for me to name one now. Blake’s doing a good job, I haven’t seen enough defensively, offensively I see what you see. He’s special, he played winter ball, he’s done so much in a short time here. He’s a big league player
also, GA will play some 1B in AZ when Loney, et al are in Taiwan.
by Eric Stephen on Mar 9, 2010 9:54 AM PST via mobile reply actions
I think DeWitt has the 2B job. He really is in a good position here since both Belliard or Carroll can play 2B against tough lefties.
Asked to respond to Torre’s quote, DeWitt added:
GONNA USE MY ARMS
GONNA USE MY LEGS
GONNA USE MY STYLE
GONNA USE MY SIDESTEP
GONNA USE MY FINGERS
GONNA USE MY, MY, MY IMAGINATION
‘CAUSE I GONNA MAKE YOU SEE
THERE’S NOBODY ELSE HERE
NO ONE LIKE ME
I’M SPECIAL SO SPECIAL
I GOTTA HAVE SOME OF YOUR ATTENTION GIVE IT TO ME
More Torre
On Kuo, Sherrill and Broxton’s innings:
We’re figuring on getting them eight or nine innings, not counting appearances in minor league games. Normally that’s what relievers get, starters you like to get 25 or 30 innings.
Also, Mientkiewicz got a cortisone shot…out today, available tomorrow.
by Eric Stephen on Mar 9, 2010 9:59 AM PST via mobile reply actions
I think Dougie is done. What good is he if he can not even throw the ball if needed? I will be hot if I invest 4-5 hours in a crucial 16 inning game at some point this year where he ends up on the field and they lose because he can not make a simple throw to end an inning or something like that.
I was legitimately shocked at how bad his arm looked at Camelback over the weekend. During infield practice, he literally just left it dangling at his side when he wasn’t throwing. No stretching or lifting it at all. Tough to see a guy struggle like that, but unless he is never going to play the infield, I agree that he is done.
Supposedly, one of the things that stands out to scouts is his ability to throw 100mph fastballs “all day long.” I-Rod compared him to Nolan Ryan {ahem}. What’s really amazing to me is the fact that some people actually favor the Braves’ Heyward over him. It might just be a pitcher/position player thing, but that still says something about what Atlanta has.
Both guys are a lock to win a Cy Young and MVP if they remain healthy. You can’t go wrong. These are two of the best prospects I’ve seen in 20 years.
I heard Barry Bonds struck out once or twice during his career
by Michael White on Mar 9, 2010 10:36 AM PST up reply actions
Not sure if he ever did during spring training though.
by Michael White on Mar 9, 2010 10:37 AM PST up reply actions
Alex Rodriguez is probly the best prospect to come up in the last 20 years. He had all the hype of being a ss taken first overall with average, speed, power, and fielding. I know what you mean about these guys, but guys like Arod, Prior, and a handful of others were better off imo.
Given the hype, I’m surprised three people got a bat on the ball :)
by Eric Stephen on Mar 9, 2010 10:23 AM PST via mobile up reply actions
people having fun with the hype
bigleaguestew: Strasburg goes 1-2-3. On pace for a 0.00 career ERA, which would the lowest in history.
First start will be double digits. But I wouldn’t be surprised to see him pull a Kerry Wood ’98 sometime this year.
I’ll take the double digit bet. Coke zero?
by Eric Stephen on Mar 9, 2010 10:38 AM PST via mobile up reply actions
I think I owe you one from last year
So I’ll go double or nothing, I’ll take single digits.
Towers had a perfect inning yesterday
I’d say its 50/50 as to which one is the better pro.
by Michael White on Mar 9, 2010 10:26 AM PST up reply actions
Meanwhile, Brandon Webb has yet to pitch in a game for the DBacks.
From an mlb.com article.
“He played catch today and he felt fine, he got up to 90 feet,” Hinch said. “Again, we’re just slowing down his pace. Day-to-day we’ll just see how he’s doing. We’ll see how he feels tomorrow. It’ll be a catch day until we plan his next bullpen.”We’re 3 1/2 weeks from Opening Day. Looks like a high probability that Webb’s first pitching after ST will be a rehab assignment. That would make their rotation at the start something like:
Webb has thrown eight bullpen sessions during the past month and a half and said Wednesday after the last session that he felt like he is “stagnant.” He hasn’t been on the mound since then. Byrnes said it’s a probability that Webb will have at least one more bullpen session prior to facing hitters. Whether he moves on at that point depends on how he feels after the next bullpen session.
1. Haren
2. EJax
3. Kennedy
4. Buckner
5. Lopez / Augenstein / ?
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
Pitching tomorrow
for Dodgers, against AZ:
Padilla, Ramon O, Gagne, Weaver, Miller
Dan Haren starts for D-Backs
Taiwan Series (first two games)
Game 1: LHP Eric Stults vs. LHP Ying-Chieh Lin, 2:37am (L.A.) Friday morning
Game 2: RHP Josh Towers RHP Chien-Fu Yang, 10:07pm (L.A.) Friday night
The return of Chen
Chin-Feng Chen will face his former team during this series for the first time. The 32-year-old outfielder was the first Taiwanese player to appear in a Major League game, playing in 19 contests for Los Angeles from 2002-05. In 2006, he returned to Taiwan and has played for the La New Bears ever since, enjoying great success while leading the team to a championship in the CPBL.
I have a feeling that he spends the year either as the 5th starter or in Alb
It’s better to get him over 100 innings in the minors and let him work on the changeup than spending all season in the pen.
Now, what is the deal with Sherrill to Minn? I havent heard anything about that…
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Mar 9, 2010 2:16 PM PST reply actions
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