2010 Player Profile: Nick Green. No, Really
by Eric Stephen on Apr 1, 2010 8:52 AM PDT
in Community Projections
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PrintOver the last week or so, as the Dodgers get closer to finalizing their opening day roster, it has become more and more apparent that Nick Green will make the roster. Glancing at the calendar today, it might seem like an April Fools joke, but sadly it is not.
Even though manager Joe Torre has said Rafael Furcal will get less rest this season, meaning there would be less than the 21 starts by backup shortstops made last season, the team still seems intent on carrying a true backup shortstop. That's where Nick Green comes in. He is not much of a hitter (the 31-year old Green has a career .307 on-base percentage in 1,108 plate appearances), but he can field the position well:
| Nick Green at Shortstop | |||
| Career Innings | Plus/Minus | UZR/150 | FRAA |
| 752.1 | +3 | +12.1 | +6 |
If recent history is any standard, Nick Green is a better player than either Juan Castro or Angel Berroa, the last two backup shortstops the Dodgers have had. It can be debated that Green isn't any better than Chin-Lung Hu, but then again Green doesn't have the taint of hitting .181/.252/.233, like Hu did in 2008. However, on a team that will have Jamey Carroll on the bench, I'm just not sure a roster spot is needed for a true backup shortstop.
It is four days before opening day, and the Dodgers still haven't named their regular second baseman. Blake DeWitt has played there all spring, and has hit well, yet all we hear from Torre is that it would be better for DeWitt's chances if we had 11 pitchers instead of 12. That leads me to believe that Nick Green has a more secure hold on a roster spot than does DeWitt, and that just seems wrong.
Trivia
Perhaps giving up that 12th pitcher for Green won't come back to bite the Dodgers after all. Green pitched two innings of a game for Boston last August 27, against the White Sox. Amazingly, the game wasn't a blowout; the Red Sox were only down 9-5 when Green entered the game. Even more amazingly, Green didn't give up a hit in two scoreless innings, though he did walk three batters.
Contract Status
Green signed a minor league contract that will pay him $550,000 if in the majors. He can also earn up to $100,000 in contract incentives based on plate appearances. If Green isn't placed on the active roster by Sunday, he can opt to become a free agent.
2010 Outlook
| Year | Age | PA | HR | Runs | RBI | BA | OBP | SLG | wOBA |
| 2007 (Pit-AAA) | 28 | 106 | 5 | 9 | 20 | .245 | .264 | .451 | .306 |
| 2007 (Sea-AAA) | 28 | 313 | 16 | 52 | 46 | .337 | .385 | .600 | .417 |
| 2008 (NYY-AAA) | 29 | 431 | 12 | 41 | 50 | .233 | .285 | .373 | .293 |
| 2009 | 30 | 309 | 6 | 35 | 35 | .236 | .303 | .366 | .290 |
| 2010 Projections - Age 31 Season | |||||||||
| Bill James | 169 | 4 | 19 | 18 | .247 | .312 | .373 | .294 | |
| CHONE | 325 | 9 | 34 | 34 | .234 | .295 | .381 | .296 | |
| Marcel | 354 | 8 | 41 | 40 | .243 | .310 | .385 | .301 | |
| Baseball HQ | 70 | 1 | 6 | 6 | .191 | .243 | .275 | --- | |
| ZiPS | 358 | 10 | 32 | 33 | .240 | .292 | .375 | .291 | |
| Thanks to FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference for the data | |||||||||
I'll guess Green hits .240/.296/.376 in 56 PA.
What is your guess for Nick Green in 2010? Be sure to pick BA/OBP/SLG, as well as plate appearances.
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Julio
Lugo is now an Oriole, in case anyone cares.
I really don’t want to dislike Nick Green, he seems a perfectly fine gent and good defensively, but he’s just another pointless backup veteran infielder that the team doesn’t need.
I know some people think Hu should be starting and getting more at bats in the minors rather than sit on the bench in LA but I know which one he’d choose, and I feel like it’s3 years in a row we’ve made that statement. So if they want a backup SS make it the guy in the organization already.
And I won’t mind Green as much if DeWitt is on the team too.
There's no need to fear, Underdog is here! / Broncos/Dodgers/Lakers fan in Niners/Raiders/Giants/Warriors country, and damned proud of it.
Indians lineup tonight
They are a split squad, also playing a noon game against the Angels in Tempe. From the Indians:
Cabrera SS
Sizemore CF
Peralta 3B
Kearns RF
LaPorta 1B
Valbuena 2B
Redmond C
Brantley LF
Carrmona P
Eh...
.230/.290/.380 in 80 PA.
Hu makes so much more sense in terms of offense, defense, upside, and one thing that the Dodger bench is lacking: speed. No sense in him starting in ABQ, as if he’s gonna polish himself and be better groomed for any role in the majors. At this point, his growth isn’t being stunted if he’s riding pine in LA.
I’m not one to want to root for someone to get injured, but I hope Green is the first one to go down this season. The team would be much better off with Hu or DeJesus.
Disagree about DeJesus
after missing a full season with a broken leg, he just needs to play, which he wouldn’t do on the bench in LA
I wonder if Furcal got hurt around midseason if DeJesus will have proven enough by then to get the call.
He’s not old and shitty like Green, so its hard to say. Also, Amezaga might show up at some point right?
by Michael White on Apr 1, 2010 9:56 AM PDT up reply actions
I think Hu is much more likely to be the long-term fill in should Furcal go down.
by Eric Stephen on Apr 1, 2010 10:03 AM PDT up reply actions
I don’t have the stats in front of me, but hasn’t DeJesus constantly performed, including in spring training? Stults is dead to Torre based on one outing in Colorado, I can only imagine Torre’s feelings regarding Hu thanks to his disaster at the plate in 2008.
Basically, DeJesus would have to continue to perfor and do so for a good half of the season or order to put himself in position to start. Otherwise, it’ll be Green or Amezaga (not Hu.)
by Michael White on Apr 1, 2010 10:06 AM PDT up reply actions
Going forward, DeJesus will pass Hu. I just don’t think he has yet.
by Eric Stephen on Apr 1, 2010 10:11 AM PDT up reply actions
DeJesus is much more likely to hit .180 than Furcal is. C’mon, now. You are like an bizzaro Silverwidow right now.
by Eric Stephen on Apr 1, 2010 10:09 AM PDT up reply actions
Good point
But if Hu gets traded and/or something happens to one or more of DeWitt, Belliard, Furcal and Carroll, I like DeJesus a lot more than Green. Particularly if we’re talking about playoff rosters.
Seriously
Why waste a 40-man spot on Green when Hu would give us the same defense and more upside on offense? As you said, Hu is no longer a prospect so go ahead and use him at the major league level in whatever capacity. He would be a fine backup middle IF, pinch-runner if we must have one.
Phillies pitchers crowd DL
Blanton is going on the DL with an oblique strain. Will Carroll thinks he’ll miss a month.
Also, Brad Lidge and J.C. Romero went on the DL, retroactive to March 26
The other half of the Indians
team that is playing in Tempe, having a tough morning. From Anthony Castrovince of MLB.com:
Indians just had to move up their bus time this AM. Today’s game in Tempe is at 12:05 p.m., not the standard 1:05. No one told the Tribe
Discount tickets
for the other two non-opening day games against the D-Backs. The $70 seats are $40 here.
seems to work for the 4/15 game not the 4/14 game
For 4/15 I could get 107LG Row M.
Sweet seat but I refuse to pay ticketmaster to screw me.
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
Andrew has said he thinks that for Hu to increase his trade value he needs to play everyday at AAA. My guess is that if Furcal gets hurt you want the guy who has been playing everyday to step in not Nick Green. My real question is that DeJesus was supposed to be ticketed for AAA, who plays SS for the Isotopes?
Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen
I guess we’ll find out in a week or so. My guess is Hu at SS, DeJesus at 2B.
by Eric Stephen on Apr 1, 2010 10:15 AM PDT up reply actions
+1
Theres really no reason for him to be in AA unless its for a very short time to simply get his feet wet after missing a year, so if he is in AAA, this seems the most likely scenario.
But its also just another reason why it makes no sense to keep Green. Hu’s presence in ALB is doing no good for him or other prospects. Not that that seems to matter here.
Maybe that’s some of the reason they are reportedly trying to trade Hu, to clear the pipeline a bit so both DeJesus and Gordon can play SS at AAA and AA, respectively.
Of course, I agree with you that Hu should make the roster over Green.
by Eric Stephen on Apr 1, 2010 10:36 AM PDT up reply actions
That is another good point. If DeWitt somehow gets squeezed out of a 25-man spot, where would he play in Alb, assuming Hu is at SS and DeJesus is at 2B. I suppose you could do some sort of rotation, but that doesn’t seem to benefit anybody if the idea is to get all of them regular playing time.
That is worst case scenario
but might it lead to Hu at SS, DeWitt at 2B in ABQ, and either Gordon at SS, DeJesus at 2B in Chattanooga or DeJesus at SS in AA and Gordon at SS in San Bernardino. Very interesting to see how it plays out.
by Eric Stephen on Apr 1, 2010 10:39 AM PDT up reply actions
I guess that is the point though. I would seem that keeping a terrible player like Green has far reaching ramifications that not only impacts the major league club but could also start to stunt the development of some of our better prospects. Sure it might be OK for DeJesus to start the year in AA but I would think a whole season would be a waste for him.
If I had to guess
Either DeJesus or Hu would play 3B, probably Hu. He seems to be a forgotten man for the most part, so I doubt they have too much concern about getting him reps, where they still do with DeWitt/DeJesus.
Forgive me
I’ve read so much about Green the last few days, my eyes are starting to bleed. But are we sure he is the favorite. I agree that the 11 man staff basically insures DeWitt starts or he wouldn’t be on the 25. So adding another bench player, most likely a backup SS is the reason to dump a pitcher. Are we certain it is Green, and not Hu. Did Torre say something I forgot about? Seriously I don’t remember. Hu is still in big league camp isn’t he. Plus he does already have a roster spot. Which might not matter since it looks like there will be plenty of room for Green. Hu has certainly out played Green this spring. I do still think Green is the favorite, for some reason. But I wouldn’t totally rule out Hu.
I wouldn't totally rule out Hu either
but the likelihood of Green dying in a freak asteroid impact isn’t particularly high, and thats about the only way Hu makes it.
Wow, does anyone remember Ceasar Izturis' incredibly hot start to 2005?
He hit .345 with an .818 OPS through early June, then his average dropped to .295 in 11 games after hitting .044/.085/.044 in that span going 2/45, both singles.
From June 2nd to July 19th (missed the first 14 games of July) he did not have a multi hit game. He hit .090/.125/.120 and was 9/100 with 3 walks. I honestly cannot remember a worst stretch of hitting than that in my life. Though I am off to investigate Andruw Jones next ;)
I know he was hiding an injury after June, but I can’t even fathom how someone can start off so hot then fall off the face of the earth. After his .345 with an .818 OPS start on June 1st, Izturis hit .167/.209/.217 in 221 at bats in 54 games.
Ouch :(
The Dodgers will be a part of three home openers.
That’s a lot of fan fair for one week.
The worrisome thought, to me, is that it will be someone else who gets the boot, like DeWitt.
Right now there are four 40-man spots available, presumably for GA, Weaver, Ramon O, and Green. But Wade will likely be placed on the 60-day to create another spot, which is needed for when Belisario comes back.
My thought is that we end up with 12 pitchers fairly soon, and while Green is a candidate to leave, all this “we need 11 pitchers to have room for DeWitt” nonsense has me worried about DeWitt’s fate.
by Eric Stephen on Apr 1, 2010 11:43 AM PDT up reply actions
I almost do not buy into that Dewitt thinking because it is SO backwards, but people like you keep putting stuff out there that torre is saying that, so i guess it is true. At lease Dewitt gets some ML starts to prove himself for now.
Torre’s quote about DeWitt, from yesterday:
The kid has played regularly at second base all year. Short of anointing him the starting second baseman, a lot of it’s going to come down to if we can go with the luxury of taking 11 pitchers.
by Eric Stephen on Apr 1, 2010 12:00 PM PDT up reply actions
I think
it depends on how DeWitt is playing. If he isn’t playing well he’s gone. If he is playing well, maybe they decide Carroll is good enough to back up Furcal. This might also depend on how much rest they decide Furcal needs. It seems like a way to actually see how everything works out in games that count.
Forgive me
If I don’t believe the -1.2 at 2B and -3.0 at 3B can’t be ignored in this equation. :o Especially with the larger sample at second and an easier position.
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