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Dodger Notes: Hiroki Kuroda & The Bullpen

Hiroki Kuroda issued zero unintentional walks for the 20th time in 52 career starts last night.

After throwing 12 innings in the first three games of the season, the Dodger bullpen got a much needed boost from Hiroki Kuroda last night, with his dominant eight inning performance.  He was a groundball machine, with a 71.4% GB%, and allowed just one unearned run, keeping a pattern alive:

Hiroki Kuroda First Starts of the Season
Date Opp IP H R ER BB K Dec
4/4/08 at SD 7.0 3 1 1 0 4 W
4/6/09 at SD 5.2 4 1 1 1 2 W
Friday   
at Fla    8.0 5 1 0 1 7 W

Kuroda has made three road starts to start his three seasons with the Dodgers, and has allowed just one run in each game, picking up a win each time.  Outside of his performance on the mound, Kuroda is well-respected in the Dodger clubhouse.  Looking at a quote from Kuroda after last night's game, it's not hard to see why.  As Dylan Hernandez of the LA Times reported, Takuya Kimura, a teammate of Kuroda's from the Hiroshima Carp passed away this week.  Here's what Kuroda had to say about his performance last night:

"Instead of saying that I did this for him, I'd like to think that I have a renewed appreciation for being able to wear this uniform and take the field every day," Kuroda said. "That's something I learned from Takuya-san."

How cool is that? I have renewed appreciation for Kuroda being able to wear the Dodger uniform, too.

Inherited Runners

Each game so far has featured a situation with inherited runners.  Using the Baseball Prospectus Run Expectancy Matrix, we can find out the average runs scored each inning after every base-out situation.  For instance, in 2009 having runners on second and third base with one out yielded an average of 1.41383 runs from that point forward in the inning.  I'm using 2009 numbers here, because the 2010 numbers just don't have a lot of data less than a week into the season.

Here are all the situations so far with inherited runners this season:

Day Pitcher Inning Bases Outs Inherited Runners Scored Expected Runs Runs Saved
Mon Ra.Ortiz    5th 123 1 3 3 1.55801 (1.44199)
Wed Weaver 5th 123 2 3 0 0.74989 0.74989
Thu Weaver 6th -2- 1 1 1 0.68844 (0.31156)
Fri Broxton 9th 123 1 3 2 1.55801 (0.44199)
Totals 10 6 4.55435 (1.44565)

So the Dodgers have given up about a run and a half more than expected in those situations.  Of course, some situations were more critical than others.  Here are the Dodger win expectancies both before and after these relievers entered the game (thanks to Baseball-Reference.com box scores):

Day Pitcher WE Before WE After
Mon Ra.Ortiz    12% 2%
Wed   Weaver 41% 50%
Thu Weaver 86% 90%
Fri Broxton 98% 100%

The one situation with the game really on the line was Wednesday in Pittsburgh, when Jeff Weaver relieved Clayton Kershaw with the bases loaded.  The game was tied at three, and this presented a situation in which Jeff Weaver excelled in last year.  In 24 plate appearances with the bases loaded last season, Weaver allowed one measly single, allowing opposing batters to hit .050/.167/.050.  There was some luck involved -- one hit in 15 ball in play for a .067 BABIP -- so this wasn't expected to continue into this season.

After all, many of the fun stats from last season had already taken a turn this season:

  • Andre Ethier had no extra-base hits in 94 plate appearances against lefties on the road in 2009, but hit a double off southpaw Zach Duke in his first such plate appearance this year
  • George Sherrill allowed just two runs as a Dodger last year, good for the lowest ERA in franchise history with 20 or more innings, but allowed three runs in his first game of 2010
  • Randy Wolf allowed only four extra-base hits to left-handed batters in 185 plate appearances last year with the Dodgers, allowed two doubles and a home run to lefties in his first game with the Brewers this season.

When Weaver entered from the bullpen with the bases loaded Wednesday, I expected his run of bases loaded success to come crashing down as well.  However, one pitch was all he needed to induce a pop out from Old Friend Delwyn Young.

Minor League Starting Pitching Game Scores

Player Date Game Score
Brett Wallach 4/9/2010 73
Scott Elbert 4/9/2010 72
Chris Withrow 4/8/2010 61
Aaron Miller 4/9/2010 59
James McDonald 4/8/2010 52
Alberto Bastardo 4/9/2010 51
Jon Redding 4/8/2010 47
Josh Wall 4/8/2010 31

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Great Stuff

I was also surprised when Weaver came through again.

I hope we do sign Kuroda, as much support as Kershaw and Chad get on this blog and other Dodger blogs, Kuroda seems to go under appreciated. Great quote.

Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen

by Phil Gurnee on Apr 10, 2010 11:34 AM PDT reply actions  

That quote is so cool. Just when you think you respect a guy quite a bit, he comes through and elevates himself to a whole new level.

by Eric Stephen on Apr 10, 2010 11:36 AM PDT up reply actions  

Kuroda will be our sleeper in 2010… I expect some games like this… And I hope xe can resign him for less… I think a 2 year extension with 22 millions seems to be fair…

"I love the Tour de Pise", "I love La Joconde", "I love French Culture", "I love Gastronomie Francaise", "Hey, Obama I wanna to kick your ass", "OMG, they are a lot of Viets, everybody get down", "I do my Yoga" and "I love la France"... and she spits... By Louise Bourgoin (my avatar) in Sarah Palin :D

by Jojo93160 on Apr 10, 2010 11:43 AM PDT up reply actions  

if he pitches close to 200 innings, ya that a good deal

but if he pitches another 100 inings… and is injured… hes gotta go or sign for mich less

by matthewmafa on Apr 10, 2010 11:58 AM PDT up reply actions  

For sure…

"I love the Tour de Pise", "I love La Joconde", "I love French Culture", "I love Gastronomie Francaise", "Hey, Obama I wanna to kick your ass", "OMG, they are a lot of Viets, everybody get down", "I do my Yoga" and "I love la France"... and she spits... By Louise Bourgoin (my avatar) in Sarah Palin :D

by Jojo93160 on Apr 10, 2010 12:06 PM PDT up reply actions  

Nathan Eovaldi Update

According to Sam Farber the Inland Empire do it all man.

I asked the coaching staff and the best I can tell you is a minor injury slowed him up in spring training so he is in Arizona getting ready to join a team for the season.

 
The extent or type of injury is unknown so don’t ask, we don’t know, and the coaching staff did not elaborate.

Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen

by Phil Gurnee on Apr 10, 2010 11:42 AM PDT reply actions  

Bonjour from Paris

When can he return to IE??

"I love the Tour de Pise", "I love La Joconde", "I love French Culture", "I love Gastronomie Francaise", "Hey, Obama I wanna to kick your ass", "OMG, they are a lot of Viets, everybody get down", "I do my Yoga" and "I love la France"... and she spits... By Louise Bourgoin (my avatar) in Sarah Palin :D

by Jojo93160 on Apr 10, 2010 11:44 AM PDT up reply actions  

Thanks

We could see the tag team: Martin and Eovaldi all year…

"I love the Tour de Pise", "I love La Joconde", "I love French Culture", "I love Gastronomie Francaise", "Hey, Obama I wanna to kick your ass", "OMG, they are a lot of Viets, everybody get down", "I do my Yoga" and "I love la France"... and she spits... By Louise Bourgoin (my avatar) in Sarah Palin :D

by Jojo93160 on Apr 10, 2010 11:46 AM PDT up reply actions  

Not sure how you

got that time frame from the quote. I would have said we have no idea.

Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen

by Phil Gurnee on Apr 10, 2010 11:51 AM PDT up reply actions  

The word ‘minor’ jumped out at me. I’m guessing it’s not that serious.

by Julio Nievas on Apr 10, 2010 12:08 PM PDT up reply actions  

Belisario just needed some friends to hang with in Glendale. :)

by Eric Stephen on Apr 10, 2010 11:46 AM PDT up reply actions  

Watching This Week in Baseball

and they showed the Johnny Damon “double steal” from Game 4 of last year’s World Series. That is one of the all-time coolest plays ever.

by Eric Stephen on Apr 10, 2010 11:59 AM PDT reply actions  

Baseball HQ on Chad
After a 2H melt down in 2009, it was important for Chad Billingsley (RHP, LAD) to have a good start to the 2010 season … and that is exactly what he did as he got the Win against the Pirates Thursday. What do we make of Billingsley who, in 2009 was a National Leauge All-Star … but was also the owner of a 2H ERA of 5.24? Let’s ask the BPI …
Ask anybody in the Dodgers camp and the message will be the same … Thursday’s PQS 3 start was a step in the right direction … but what can we expect for the full 2010 season?

    * Look at Billingsley’s xERA history. Simply put, this is a sub-4.00 ERA pitcher. Even when the wheels completely fell off in the second half, Billingsley still deserved a sub 4.00 ERA … you gotta like that.
    * While we would like to see Billingsley maintain his groundball rate, he pitches in one of the kinder parks in baseball (-8% runs) … you gotta like that.
    * We would like to see Billingsley get his CTL back down … O.K. … we’ll give you that one.
    * Billingsley is just 25 years-old … there are a lot of great years left on that arm.

Numerous scouts raved that Billingsley looked great this Spring. Add that little tidbit to the numbers above and we have good reason to believe that Billingsley is going to have a fine season this year … and that is a FACT.

Patience is for those who die waiting for something to happen

by Phil Gurnee on Apr 10, 2010 12:40 PM PDT reply actions  

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Pos No Player 2012 Salary
C 17 Ellis $490,000
1B 7 Loney $6,375,000
2B 37 Herrera $375,082
3B 6 Hairston $2,250,000
SS 9 Gordon $485,000
LF 23 Abreu $401,311
CF 10 Gwynn $850,000
RF 16 Ethier $10,950,000

OF/1B 33 Van Slyke $388,197
2B/3B 3 Kennedy $800,000
OF/1B 30 Sands $375,175
IF 13 DeJesus $448,992
C 18 Treanor $850,000

SP 22 Kershaw $6,000,000
SP 58 Billingsley $9,000,000
SP 29 Lilly $12,000,000
SP 44
Harang $3,000,000
SP 35 Capuano $3,000,000

CL 74
Jansen $491,000
RHP 52 Lindblom $483,000
RHP 51 Belisario $414,426
RHP 54 Guerra $488,000
RHP 28
Wright $900,000
LHP 57 Elbert $488,500
RHP 60 Coffey $1,000,000

DL 27 Kemp $10,000,000
DL 21 Rivera $4,000,000
DL 12 Sellers $481,000
DL 5 Uribe $8,000,000
DL 55 Guerrier $4,750,000
DL 14 Ellis $2,500,000
60DL 36 Hawksworth $495,000
60DL 41 De La Rosa $485,000

AA 50 Eovaldi $7,885
AAA 56 Antonini $7,869



Manny $8,087,432 deferred


Andruw $3,375,000 deferred


Pierre $3,050,000 deferred
Furcal $3,000,000 deferred
Kuroda $2,000,000 deferred
Garland $1,500,000 option buyout
Blake $1,250,000 option buyout
DFA 66 MacDougal $650,000

Totals
$115,942,869

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Current 40-man roster count: 42
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Eric___ned___reporters_2011_trade_deadline_small Eric Stephen

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