FanPost

Home Opener, DBacks vs Dodgers - Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Diamondbacks and the Dodgers using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores.  This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last.  Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.  Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran on Monday at 11:00 PM)

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob
ARI LAN I.Kennedy vs C.Kershaw LAN 62.55% 63.90%

 

Notes: The Simulator and Vegas opening lines are in good agreement as to the Dodgers chances of winning the home opener.  The most likely final score is a Dodgers 3-2 victory.  Make sure you get your game score guesses in before the first pitch is thrown out.

 

Top 100 Most Likely Scores
1 LAN 3-2   51 ARI 7-3
2 LAN 4-3   52 LAN 8-4
3 LAN 2-1   53 ARI 7-5
4 LAN 5-4   54 LAN 8-5
5 LAN 4-2   55 LAN 8-7
6 LAN 3-1   56 ARI 6-1
7 ARI 3-2   57 LAN 9-2
8 LAN 4-1   58 LAN 9-3
9 LAN 5-3   59 ARI 7-2
10 ARI 4-3   60 ARI 4-0
11 LAN 5-2   61 LAN 8-0
12 LAN 6-5   62 LAN 9-4
13 ARI 2-1   63 LAN 9-1
14 LAN 1-0   64 LAN 8-6
15 LAN 6-3   65 ARI 7-1
16 ARI 5-4   66 ARI 8-4
17 ARI 4-2   67 ARI 8-5
18 LAN 5-1   68 ARI 8-3
19 LAN 3-0   69 ARI 8-2
20 ARI 5-3   70 ARI 5-0
21 ARI 3-1   71 ARI 8-6
22 LAN 2-0   72 LAN 10-2
23 LAN 6-4   73 LAN 10-3
24 LAN 6-2   74 LAN 9-5
25 LAN 6-1   75 LAN 10-1
26 LAN 4-0   76 ARI 8-7
27 ARI 5-2   77 LAN 9-0
28 LAN 7-6   78 LAN 9-6
29 LAN 5-0   79 ARI 9-3
30 LAN 7-2   80 LAN 9-8
31 ARI 4-1   81 ARI 8-1
32 LAN 7-3   82 ARI 9-4
33 ARI 6-5   83 ARI 9-5
34 ARI 6-3   84 ARI 6-0
35 ARI 6-4   85 LAN 10-4
36 LAN 7-4   86 LAN 11-2
37 LAN 7-1   87 ARI 9-6
38 LAN 6-0   88 LAN 10-0
39 ARI 6-2   89 LAN 9-7
40 ARI 1-0   90 ARI 9-2
41 ARI 5-1   91 LAN 11-3
42 LAN 7-5   92 LAN 10-5
43 ARI 2-0   93 LAN 11-1
44 LAN 8-2   94 ARI 9-7
45 LAN 8-3   95 LAN 11-4
46 ARI 7-6   96 ARI 9-1
47 ARI 7-4   97 ARI 10-3
48 LAN 8-1   98 ARI 7-0
49 LAN 7-0   99 ARI 9-8
50 ARI 3-0   100 LAN 10-6
X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join True Blue LA

You must be a member of True Blue LA to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at True Blue LA. You should read them.

Join True Blue LA

You must be a member of True Blue LA to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at True Blue LA. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9351_tracker