FanPost

Tax Day, DBacks vs Dodgers - Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Diamondbacks and the Dodgers using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores.  This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last.  Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.  Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran on Thursday at 1:00 AM)

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob
ARI LAN D.Haren vs H.Kuroda LAN 52.38% 53.77%

 

Notes: The Simulator and Vegas both have the series finale tightening up quite a bit in terms of win probability.  The Dodgers are still the favorites but on a neutral field they'd likely be slight underdogs.

 

Top 100 Most Likely Scores

1 LAN 3-2 &nbsp 51 LAN 7-5
2 LAN 2-1 &nbsp 52 ARI 7-1
3 LAN 4-3 &nbsp 53 ARI 6-0
4 ARI 3-2 &nbsp 54 ARI 7-6
5 ARI 2-1 &nbsp 55 ARI 8-3
6 LAN 5-4 &nbsp 56 ARI 8-2
7 ARI 4-3 &nbsp 57 LAN 8-2
8 LAN 3-1 &nbsp 58 ARI 8-1
9 ARI 4-2 &nbsp 59 LAN 8-3
10 LAN 4-2 &nbsp 60 ARI 8-4
11 ARI 3-1 &nbsp 61 LAN 8-1
12 LAN 1-0 &nbsp 62 ARI 7-0
13 LAN 4-1 &nbsp 63 ARI 8-5
14 ARI 5-4 &nbsp 64 LAN 7-0
15 LAN 5-3 &nbsp 65 LAN 8-7
16 ARI 4-1 &nbsp 66 LAN 8-4
17 LAN 2-0 &nbsp 67 ARI 9-2
18 ARI 5-3 &nbsp 68 ARI 9-3
19 LAN 5-2 &nbsp 69 LAN 9-2
20 LAN 6-5 &nbsp 70 LAN 8-5
21 ARI 5-2 &nbsp 71 ARI 8-6
22 ARI 2-0 &nbsp 72 LAN 9-3
23 LAN 3-0 &nbsp 73 ARI 9-1
24 ARI 1-0 &nbsp 74 LAN 9-1
25 LAN 5-1 &nbsp 75 LAN 8-6
26 ARI 5-1 &nbsp 76 ARI 9-4
27 ARI 3-0 &nbsp 77 ARI 8-0
28 ARI 6-3 &nbsp 78 LAN 8-0
29 LAN 6-3 &nbsp 79 ARI 8-7
30 LAN 6-4 &nbsp 80 LAN 9-4
31 LAN 4-0 &nbsp 81 ARI 10-3
32 LAN 6-2 &nbsp 82 ARI 9-5
33 ARI 6-4 &nbsp 83 LAN 10-3
34 ARI 4-0 &nbsp 84 LAN 10-2
35 ARI 6-2 &nbsp 85 LAN 9-8
36 LAN 6-1 &nbsp 86 LAN 9-0
37 ARI 6-5 &nbsp 87 ARI 10-2
38 ARI 6-1 &nbsp 88 ARI 9-6
39 LAN 5-0 &nbsp 89 ARI 9-0
40 LAN 7-6 &nbsp 90 ARI 10-1
41 ARI 7-3 &nbsp 91 LAN 9-5
42 LAN 7-3 &nbsp 92 LAN 10-1
43 LAN 7-2 &nbsp 93 ARI 10-4
44 ARI 7-4 &nbsp 94 ARI 10-5
45 ARI 7-2 &nbsp 95 LAN 9-6
46 ARI 5-0 &nbsp 96 LAN 10-0
47 LAN 7-4 &nbsp 97 LAN 10-4
48 LAN 7-1 &nbsp 98 ARI 9-7
49 ARI 7-5 &nbsp 99 LAN 11-2
50 LAN 6-0 &nbsp 100 ARI 11-3
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