## Tax Day, DBacks vs Dodgers - Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Diamondbacks and the Dodgers using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores.  This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last.  Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.  Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran on Thursday at 1:00 AM)

 Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob ARI LAN D.Haren vs H.Kuroda LAN 52.38% 53.77%

Notes: The Simulator and Vegas both have the series finale tightening up quite a bit in terms of win probability.  The Dodgers are still the favorites but on a neutral field they'd likely be slight underdogs.

Top 100 Most Likely Scores

 1 LAN 3-2   51 LAN 7-5 2 LAN 2-1   52 ARI 7-1 3 LAN 4-3   53 ARI 6-0 4 ARI 3-2   54 ARI 7-6 5 ARI 2-1   55 ARI 8-3 6 LAN 5-4   56 ARI 8-2 7 ARI 4-3   57 LAN 8-2 8 LAN 3-1   58 ARI 8-1 9 ARI 4-2   59 LAN 8-3 10 LAN 4-2   60 ARI 8-4 11 ARI 3-1   61 LAN 8-1 12 LAN 1-0   62 ARI 7-0 13 LAN 4-1   63 ARI 8-5 14 ARI 5-4   64 LAN 7-0 15 LAN 5-3   65 LAN 8-7 16 ARI 4-1   66 LAN 8-4 17 LAN 2-0   67 ARI 9-2 18 ARI 5-3   68 ARI 9-3 19 LAN 5-2   69 LAN 9-2 20 LAN 6-5   70 LAN 8-5 21 ARI 5-2   71 ARI 8-6 22 ARI 2-0   72 LAN 9-3 23 LAN 3-0   73 ARI 9-1 24 ARI 1-0   74 LAN 9-1 25 LAN 5-1   75 LAN 8-6 26 ARI 5-1   76 ARI 9-4 27 ARI 3-0   77 ARI 8-0 28 ARI 6-3   78 LAN 8-0 29 LAN 6-3   79 ARI 8-7 30 LAN 6-4   80 LAN 9-4 31 LAN 4-0   81 ARI 10-3 32 LAN 6-2   82 ARI 9-5 33 ARI 6-4   83 LAN 10-3 34 ARI 4-0   84 LAN 10-2 35 ARI 6-2   85 LAN 9-8 36 LAN 6-1   86 LAN 9-0 37 ARI 6-5   87 ARI 10-2 38 ARI 6-1   88 ARI 9-6 39 LAN 5-0   89 ARI 9-0 40 LAN 7-6   90 ARI 10-1 41 ARI 7-3   91 LAN 9-5 42 LAN 7-3   92 LAN 10-1 43 LAN 7-2   93 ARI 10-4 44 ARI 7-4   94 ARI 10-5 45 ARI 7-2   95 LAN 9-6 46 ARI 5-0   96 LAN 10-0 47 LAN 7-4   97 LAN 10-4 48 LAN 7-1   98 ARI 9-7 49 ARI 7-5   99 LAN 11-2 50 LAN 6-0   100 ARI 11-3

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