FanPost

April 16, Giants vs Dodgers - Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Giants and the Dodgers using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores.  This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last.  Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.  Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran on Thursday at 11:30 PM)

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob
SF LAN T.Wellemeyer vs V.Padilla LAN 58.68% 59.33%

 

Notes: Good opportunity to bring the Giants back down to the pack before the pitching matchups get tougher.  The Dodgers are solid favorites to win this game, but with Vicente Padilla on the mound you just never quite know.

 

Top 100 Most Likely Scores

1 LAN 4-3   51 SF 6-1
2 LAN 3-2   52 SF 3-0
3 LAN 5-4   53 SF 8-5
4 LAN 2-1   54 SF 2-0
5 LAN 4-2   55 LAN 8-6
6 SF 4-3   56 SF 8-4
7 SF 3-2   57 LAN 9-3
8 LAN 6-5   58 SF 8-3
9 LAN 5-3   59 SF 1-0
10 LAN 3-1   60 LAN 6-0
11 SF 5-4   61 LAN 8-1
12 LAN 5-2   62 SF 8-2
13 SF 4-2   63 LAN 9-2
14 LAN 6-3   64 SF 8-6
15 LAN 4-1   65 SF 4-0
16 SF 5-3   66 LAN 9-4
17 LAN 6-4   67 SF 8-7
18 SF 2-1   68 SF 7-1
19 SF 6-5   69 LAN 7-0
20 LAN 7-6   70 LAN 9-5
21 SF 3-1   71 LAN 10-2
22 SF 5-2   72 SF 9-3
23 LAN 6-2   73 LAN 9-1
24 SF 6-4   74 LAN 10-3
25 LAN 5-1   75 SF 5-0
26 SF 6-3   76 LAN 9-6
27 LAN 7-4   77 SF 9-4
28 LAN 7-3   78 LAN 9-8
29 LAN 7-5   79 LAN 10-4
30 SF 4-1   80 SF 9-5
31 LAN 7-2   81 SF 8-1
32 LAN 6-1   82 LAN 9-7
33 SF 6-2   83 LAN 8-0
34 LAN 3-0   84 SF 9-6
35 LAN 2-0   85 SF 9-2
36 SF 7-4   86 LAN 10-5
37 SF 7-5   87 SF 6-0
38 SF 7-6   88 LAN 11-4
39 LAN 1-0   89 LAN 10-1
40 LAN 4-0   90 SF 9-7
41 SF 7-3   91 LAN 11-3
42 LAN 8-7   92 SF 9-8
43 LAN 7-1   93 SF 7-0
44 SF 5-1   94 LAN 11-2
45 LAN 8-3   95 SF 10-4
46 LAN 8-4   96 SF 10-5
47 SF 7-2   97 SF 9-1
48 LAN 8-2   98 SF 10-3
49 LAN 8-5   99 LAN 10-6
50 LAN 5-0   100 LAN 9-0
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