FanPost

April 16, Giants vs Dodgers - Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Giants and the Dodgers using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores.  This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last.  Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.  Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran on Thursday at 11:30 PM)

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob
SF LAN T.Wellemeyer vs V.Padilla LAN 58.68% 59.33%

 

Notes: Good opportunity to bring the Giants back down to the pack before the pitching matchups get tougher.  The Dodgers are solid favorites to win this game, but with Vicente Padilla on the mound you just never quite know.

 

Top 100 Most Likely Scores

1 LAN 4-3 &nbsp 51 SF 6-1
2 LAN 3-2 &nbsp 52 SF 3-0
3 LAN 5-4 &nbsp 53 SF 8-5
4 LAN 2-1 &nbsp 54 SF 2-0
5 LAN 4-2 &nbsp 55 LAN 8-6
6 SF 4-3 &nbsp 56 SF 8-4
7 SF 3-2 &nbsp 57 LAN 9-3
8 LAN 6-5 &nbsp 58 SF 8-3
9 LAN 5-3 &nbsp 59 SF 1-0
10 LAN 3-1 &nbsp 60 LAN 6-0
11 SF 5-4 &nbsp 61 LAN 8-1
12 LAN 5-2 &nbsp 62 SF 8-2
13 SF 4-2 &nbsp 63 LAN 9-2
14 LAN 6-3 &nbsp 64 SF 8-6
15 LAN 4-1 &nbsp 65 SF 4-0
16 SF 5-3 &nbsp 66 LAN 9-4
17 LAN 6-4 &nbsp 67 SF 8-7
18 SF 2-1 &nbsp 68 SF 7-1
19 SF 6-5 &nbsp 69 LAN 7-0
20 LAN 7-6 &nbsp 70 LAN 9-5
21 SF 3-1 &nbsp 71 LAN 10-2
22 SF 5-2 &nbsp 72 SF 9-3
23 LAN 6-2 &nbsp 73 LAN 9-1
24 SF 6-4 &nbsp 74 LAN 10-3
25 LAN 5-1 &nbsp 75 SF 5-0
26 SF 6-3 &nbsp 76 LAN 9-6
27 LAN 7-4 &nbsp 77 SF 9-4
28 LAN 7-3 &nbsp 78 LAN 9-8
29 LAN 7-5 &nbsp 79 LAN 10-4
30 SF 4-1 &nbsp 80 SF 9-5
31 LAN 7-2 &nbsp 81 SF 8-1
32 LAN 6-1 &nbsp 82 LAN 9-7
33 SF 6-2 &nbsp 83 LAN 8-0
34 LAN 3-0 &nbsp 84 SF 9-6
35 LAN 2-0 &nbsp 85 SF 9-2
36 SF 7-4 &nbsp 86 LAN 10-5
37 SF 7-5 &nbsp 87 SF 6-0
38 SF 7-6 &nbsp 88 LAN 11-4
39 LAN 1-0 &nbsp 89 LAN 10-1
40 LAN 4-0 &nbsp 90 SF 9-7
41 SF 7-3 &nbsp 91 LAN 11-3
42 LAN 8-7 &nbsp 92 SF 9-8
43 LAN 7-1 &nbsp 93 SF 7-0
44 SF 5-1 &nbsp 94 LAN 11-2
45 LAN 8-3 &nbsp 95 SF 10-4
46 LAN 8-4 &nbsp 96 SF 10-5
47 SF 7-2 &nbsp 97 SF 9-1
48 LAN 8-2 &nbsp 98 SF 10-3
49 LAN 8-5 &nbsp 99 LAN 10-6
50 LAN 5-0 &nbsp 100 LAN 9-0
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