FanPost

April 17th, Giants vs Dodgers - Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Giants and the Dodgers using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores.  This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last.  Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.  Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran on Saturday at 12:30 AM)

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob
SF LAN T.Lincecum vs C.Haeger SF 60.94% 61.05%

 

Notes: Something has got to give.  Two time Cy-Young winner Tim Lincecum on the mound and the Dodgers offense has been scoring like Tiger Woods in a hot tub.  Which gives?  Either way, get your picks in for the final score.  God spoke to me tonight and told me that Saturday's score would fall within the Top 100 as long as a maximum of only one Ortiz pitches.  Even God is expecting a DFA within the next couple of days!

 

Top 100 Most Likely Scores

1 LAN 3-2 &nbsp 51 SF 7-5
2 LAN 2-1 &nbsp 52 SF 9-2
3 SF 3-2 &nbsp 53 SF 8-4
4 LAN 4-3 &nbsp 54 SF 7-6
5 SF 2-1 &nbsp 55 SF 9-3
6 SF 3-1 &nbsp 56 SF 9-0
7 SF 4-3 &nbsp 57 LAN 6-1
8 SF 4-2 &nbsp 58 LAN 7-4
9 SF 4-1 &nbsp 59 SF 8-5
10 LAN 5-4 &nbsp 60 LAN 7-5
11 SF 3-0 &nbsp 61 LAN 7-3
12 LAN 1-0 &nbsp 62 LAN 5-0
13 SF 5-2 &nbsp 63 SF 9-4
14 SF 2-0 &nbsp 64 SF 10-1
15 SF 5-1 &nbsp 65 SF 10-2
16 LAN 3-1 &nbsp 66 LAN 8-7
17 SF 5-3 &nbsp 67 LAN 7-2
18 SF 4-0 &nbsp 68 SF 10-3
19 SF 1-0 &nbsp 69 LAN 7-1
20 LAN 4-2 &nbsp 70 SF 10-0
21 SF 5-4 &nbsp 71 SF 8-6
22 SF 5-0 &nbsp 72 SF 11-2
23 SF 6-1 &nbsp 73 LAN 6-0
24 SF 6-2 &nbsp 74 LAN 8-2
25 SF 6-3 &nbsp 75 LAN 8-3
26 LAN 2-0 &nbsp 76 SF 9-5
27 LAN 5-3 &nbsp 77 LAN 8-5
28 LAN 4-1 &nbsp 78 SF 11-1
29 LAN 6-5 &nbsp 79 SF 10-4
30 SF 6-0 &nbsp 80 SF 8-7
31 SF 7-2 &nbsp 81 LAN 8-6
32 LAN 5-2 &nbsp 82 LAN 8-4
33 SF 7-1 &nbsp 83 SF 11-3
34 SF 6-4 &nbsp 84 SF 11-0
35 SF 6-5 &nbsp 85 LAN 8-1
36 SF 7-3 &nbsp 86 SF 9-6
37 LAN 3-0 &nbsp 87 SF 12-1
38 SF 8-1 &nbsp 88 SF 11-4
39 SF 7-0 &nbsp 89 LAN 7-0
40 SF 8-2 &nbsp 90 SF 12-3
41 LAN 6-3 &nbsp 91 LAN 9-4
42 LAN 6-4 &nbsp 92 SF 10-5
43 SF 7-4 &nbsp 93 LAN 9-1
44 SF 8-3 &nbsp 94 LAN 9-2
45 LAN 5-1 &nbsp 95 LAN 9-8
46 LAN 7-6 &nbsp 96 LAN 9-3
47 SF 8-0 &nbsp 97 SF 10-6
48 LAN 6-2 &nbsp 98 LAN 9-5
49 LAN 4-0 &nbsp 99 SF 12-2
50 SF 9-1 &nbsp 100 LAN 9-6
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