FanPost

April 17th, Giants vs Dodgers - Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Giants and the Dodgers using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores.  This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last.  Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.  Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran on Saturday at 12:30 AM)

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob
SF LAN T.Lincecum vs C.Haeger SF 60.94% 61.05%

 

Notes: Something has got to give.  Two time Cy-Young winner Tim Lincecum on the mound and the Dodgers offense has been scoring like Tiger Woods in a hot tub.  Which gives?  Either way, get your picks in for the final score.  God spoke to me tonight and told me that Saturday's score would fall within the Top 100 as long as a maximum of only one Ortiz pitches.  Even God is expecting a DFA within the next couple of days!

 

Top 100 Most Likely Scores

1 LAN 3-2   51 SF 7-5
2 LAN 2-1   52 SF 9-2
3 SF 3-2   53 SF 8-4
4 LAN 4-3   54 SF 7-6
5 SF 2-1   55 SF 9-3
6 SF 3-1   56 SF 9-0
7 SF 4-3   57 LAN 6-1
8 SF 4-2   58 LAN 7-4
9 SF 4-1   59 SF 8-5
10 LAN 5-4   60 LAN 7-5
11 SF 3-0   61 LAN 7-3
12 LAN 1-0   62 LAN 5-0
13 SF 5-2   63 SF 9-4
14 SF 2-0   64 SF 10-1
15 SF 5-1   65 SF 10-2
16 LAN 3-1   66 LAN 8-7
17 SF 5-3   67 LAN 7-2
18 SF 4-0   68 SF 10-3
19 SF 1-0   69 LAN 7-1
20 LAN 4-2   70 SF 10-0
21 SF 5-4   71 SF 8-6
22 SF 5-0   72 SF 11-2
23 SF 6-1   73 LAN 6-0
24 SF 6-2   74 LAN 8-2
25 SF 6-3   75 LAN 8-3
26 LAN 2-0   76 SF 9-5
27 LAN 5-3   77 LAN 8-5
28 LAN 4-1   78 SF 11-1
29 LAN 6-5   79 SF 10-4
30 SF 6-0   80 SF 8-7
31 SF 7-2   81 LAN 8-6
32 LAN 5-2   82 LAN 8-4
33 SF 7-1   83 SF 11-3
34 SF 6-4   84 SF 11-0
35 SF 6-5   85 LAN 8-1
36 SF 7-3   86 SF 9-6
37 LAN 3-0   87 SF 12-1
38 SF 8-1   88 SF 11-4
39 SF 7-0   89 LAN 7-0
40 SF 8-2   90 SF 12-3
41 LAN 6-3   91 LAN 9-4
42 LAN 6-4   92 SF 10-5
43 SF 7-4   93 LAN 9-1
44 SF 8-3   94 LAN 9-2
45 LAN 5-1   95 LAN 9-8
46 LAN 7-6   96 LAN 9-3
47 SF 8-0   97 SF 10-6
48 LAN 6-2   98 LAN 9-5
49 LAN 4-0   99 SF 12-2
50 SF 9-1   100 LAN 9-6
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