FanPost

April 21, Dodgers vs Reds - Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Dodgers and the Reds using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores.  This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last.  Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.  Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran on Tuesday at 11:00 PM)

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob
LAN CIN H.Kuroda vs A.Harang LAN 54.75% 59.10%

 

Notes:  Once again the Dodgers are slight favorites over the Reds.  It didn't do them much good yesterday.  There is some spread between the Vegas line and the simulator this time, as the simulator is leaning more towards a Dodger victory than the betting public.  Meanwhile, get your scores in.  Hopefully, the score falls within the Top 100 this time... unless the Dodgers win.

 

Top 100 Most Likely Scores

1 CIN 3-2 &nbsp 51 CIN 7-3
2 CIN 4-3 &nbsp 52 CIN 7-4
3 LAN 3-2 &nbsp 53 LAN 7-0
4 LAN 4-3 &nbsp 54 LAN 9-2
5 CIN 2-1 &nbsp 55 LAN 8-5
6 CIN 5-4 &nbsp 56 LAN 9-3
7 LAN 4-2 &nbsp 57 CIN 6-1
8 LAN 3-1 &nbsp 58 CIN 7-2
9 LAN 2-1 &nbsp 59 LAN 9-1
10 LAN 4-1 &nbsp 60 CIN 4-0
11 LAN 5-4 &nbsp 61 LAN 8-0
12 LAN 5-2 &nbsp 62 LAN 9-4
13 LAN 5-3 &nbsp 63 CIN 8-7
14 CIN 4-2 &nbsp 64 LAN 8-6
15 CIN 6-5 &nbsp 65 CIN 8-3
16 CIN 3-1 &nbsp 66 LAN 10-2
17 LAN 5-1 &nbsp 67 CIN 5-0
18 CIN 5-3 &nbsp 68 CIN 8-5
19 LAN 6-3 &nbsp 69 CIN 8-4
20 LAN 3-0 &nbsp 70 LAN 10-3
21 LAN 6-2 &nbsp 71 LAN 10-1
22 LAN 6-4 &nbsp 72 LAN 8-7
23 LAN 2-0 &nbsp 73 CIN 7-1
24 LAN 6-1 &nbsp 74 CIN 8-6
25 CIN 5-2 &nbsp 75 LAN 9-5
26 CIN 1-0 &nbsp 76 LAN 10-4
27 CIN 4-1 &nbsp 77 CIN 8-2
28 LAN 6-5 &nbsp 78 LAN 9-0
29 LAN 4-0 &nbsp 79 LAN 9-6
30 LAN 7-2 &nbsp 80 CIN 6-0
31 LAN 1-0 &nbsp 81 LAN 11-3
32 CIN 6-4 &nbsp 82 LAN 11-2
33 LAN 7-3 &nbsp 83 LAN 10-0
34 CIN 6-3 &nbsp 84 LAN 10-5
35 LAN 5-0 &nbsp 85 LAN 11-4
36 LAN 7-4 &nbsp 86 LAN 9-7
37 LAN 7-1 &nbsp 87 CIN 9-3
38 CIN 2-0 &nbsp 88 LAN 11-1
39 LAN 7-5 &nbsp 89 CIN 9-2
40 LAN 8-2 &nbsp 90 CIN 8-1
41 LAN 6-0 &nbsp 91 CIN 9-6
42 CIN 7-6 &nbsp 92 CIN 9-5
43 CIN 5-1 &nbsp 93 CIN 9-4
44 CIN 6-2 &nbsp 94 CIN 9-8
45 LAN 8-3 &nbsp 95 CIN 7-0
46 LAN 8-1 &nbsp 96 LAN 11-5
47 CIN 3-0 &nbsp 97 LAN 12-2
48 LAN 7-6 &nbsp 98 LAN 12-1
49 LAN 8-4 &nbsp 99 LAN 10-6
50 CIN 7-5 &nbsp 100 LAN 12-3
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