FanPost

April 21, Dodgers vs Reds - Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Dodgers and the Reds using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores.  This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last.  Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.  Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran on Tuesday at 11:00 PM)

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob
LAN CIN H.Kuroda vs A.Harang LAN 54.75% 59.10%

 

Notes:  Once again the Dodgers are slight favorites over the Reds.  It didn't do them much good yesterday.  There is some spread between the Vegas line and the simulator this time, as the simulator is leaning more towards a Dodger victory than the betting public.  Meanwhile, get your scores in.  Hopefully, the score falls within the Top 100 this time... unless the Dodgers win.

 

Top 100 Most Likely Scores

1 CIN 3-2   51 CIN 7-3
2 CIN 4-3   52 CIN 7-4
3 LAN 3-2   53 LAN 7-0
4 LAN 4-3   54 LAN 9-2
5 CIN 2-1   55 LAN 8-5
6 CIN 5-4   56 LAN 9-3
7 LAN 4-2   57 CIN 6-1
8 LAN 3-1   58 CIN 7-2
9 LAN 2-1   59 LAN 9-1
10 LAN 4-1   60 CIN 4-0
11 LAN 5-4   61 LAN 8-0
12 LAN 5-2   62 LAN 9-4
13 LAN 5-3   63 CIN 8-7
14 CIN 4-2   64 LAN 8-6
15 CIN 6-5   65 CIN 8-3
16 CIN 3-1   66 LAN 10-2
17 LAN 5-1   67 CIN 5-0
18 CIN 5-3   68 CIN 8-5
19 LAN 6-3   69 CIN 8-4
20 LAN 3-0   70 LAN 10-3
21 LAN 6-2   71 LAN 10-1
22 LAN 6-4   72 LAN 8-7
23 LAN 2-0   73 CIN 7-1
24 LAN 6-1   74 CIN 8-6
25 CIN 5-2   75 LAN 9-5
26 CIN 1-0   76 LAN 10-4
27 CIN 4-1   77 CIN 8-2
28 LAN 6-5   78 LAN 9-0
29 LAN 4-0   79 LAN 9-6
30 LAN 7-2   80 CIN 6-0
31 LAN 1-0   81 LAN 11-3
32 CIN 6-4   82 LAN 11-2
33 LAN 7-3   83 LAN 10-0
34 CIN 6-3   84 LAN 10-5
35 LAN 5-0   85 LAN 11-4
36 LAN 7-4   86 LAN 9-7
37 LAN 7-1   87 CIN 9-3
38 CIN 2-0   88 LAN 11-1
39 LAN 7-5   89 CIN 9-2
40 LAN 8-2   90 CIN 8-1
41 LAN 6-0   91 CIN 9-6
42 CIN 7-6   92 CIN 9-5
43 CIN 5-1   93 CIN 9-4
44 CIN 6-2   94 CIN 9-8
45 LAN 8-3   95 CIN 7-0
46 LAN 8-1   96 LAN 11-5
47 CIN 3-0   97 LAN 12-2
48 LAN 7-6   98 LAN 12-1
49 LAN 8-4   99 LAN 10-6
50 CIN 7-5   100 LAN 12-3
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