Comparing The Bison & The Penguin
by Eric Stephen on Apr 21, 2010 9:04 AM PDT
in Dodgers History & Records
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Thanks to their amazing offense, the Dodgers somehow managed to tie and nearly take the lead in a game last night that they had no business winning. Matt Kemp's three-run home run in the top of the eighth inning looked like a pop fly off the bat, but the ball just kept carrying into the right field seats. Four of Kemp's six home runs this year have been hit to right or right center, and he is as locked in at the plate as he as ever been before.
Kemp is tied for the major league lead in runs scored (15) and runs batted in (18), and is tied for the National League lead in home runs, with six. Those numbers, eye-popping as they are, look even more impressive when you realize the Dodgers have only played 13 games.
The gold standard for hot starts by a Dodger has always been Ron Cey, who came out of the gate on fire in 1977. The Penguin set club records with nine home runs and 29 RBI in April, and that was only in 20 games! Here is how The Bison stacks up with The Penguin through the first 13 games of the season:
| Through First 13 Games | |||||
| Player | Year | HR | RBI | BA/OBP/SLG | OPS |
| Ron Cey | 1977 | 4 | 17 | .412/.508/.765 | 1.273 |
| Matt Kemp |
2010 | 6 | 18 | .333/.375/.719 | 1.094 |
As hard as it is to imagine, Cey got even hotter over his final week of April, hitting .455/.613/1.182 with five home runs and 12 RBI over the next seven games. Cey did all of his work in April 1977 while batting cleanup, while Kemp has moved around a bit:
| Batting | Starts | HR | RBI |
| 2nd | 6 | 5 | 12 |
| 3rd | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| 4th | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 5th | 2 | 0 | 2 |
The Dodgers have 10 games remaining in April, but no matter what happens from this point forward, Matt Kemp has had quite a month.
**********
Ronald Belisario will be activated today, reports Dylan Hernandez of the LA Times. Jon Link, fresh after a solid two scoreless innings in his major league debut, was optioned back to Albuquerque.
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Pitching
(from last thread)
How about the option we actually had? We could have re-signed Derek Lowe if the Dodgers had been willing to pay him a whole lot of money for a lot of years. People generally felt that it was out of the question to do what the Braves did – $60 million for four years. But Lowe seems like the type of pitcher (re Maddux) who lasts well. He still has never been on the DL. Even if he were great for just three years and you have to pay for a fourth to get him, then trade him off or whatever in the fourth year, isn’t that what a big-market team would do?
If Lowe holds up well
It sure didn’t look that way last year.
Derek Lowe had an ERA+ of 88 last year. That was the worst performance for him since 1997 and would have made him the worst starting pitcher on the Dodgers of the Big 4 (Billingsley, Kershaw, Wolf and Kuroda all had a better year.) His x-FIP wasn’t quite as bad at 4.19, but again it would have been good for the highest x-FIP of the Dodgers starting pitchers. Paying 4 years $60MM (making him the highet paid pitcher on the team) for a 5th starter in 2009 might be something a big market team would do. Nevertheless, its not exactly smart.
by Michael White on Apr 21, 2010 9:17 AM PDT up reply actions
It didn't sound like he wanted to stay on the west coast either as I remember.
Rudimentary creatures of flesh and blood, you touch my mind, fumbling in ignorance, incapable of understanding.
I think,
I might trade a bit of Bison power, for some quality starts from our pitchers. As I has become apperent, Kemp is lights out while the pitchers fizzle out. He can smack around the ball all he wants, but if we can’t keep the other team from scoring, the point is moot. But of course you all know this
by Skunkburner on Apr 21, 2010 9:11 AM PDT via mobile reply actions
Bison
looks so comfortable up there. He’s getting better and better, it’s a real joy to see. I always dreamed the Dodgers would develop a true slugger and hold on to him for his entire career, I think this might be the guy.
It seems like in the minors we have some potential CF candidates that would allow Matt to move to RF as he gets older, which seems smart. Not that he isn’t a good CF or isn’t young, but it makes sense to me to develop some other options as he ages.
He reminds me a bit of Vlad Guerrero, in that he’s big but is a 5 tool player, but we all know Kemp’s speed won’t last forever, so he may turn into that 35-40 homerun guy with 5-10 stolen bases, which would be amazing to me either way. Kemp is a guy that needs to be locked up to a long term contract and locked up now! Every game is the potential for his contract figure to be rising and rising.
He’s an incredible talent. The comp I always think about with him is Winfield, though his swing and overall body control appears to be even better than Dave’s. His ceiling is through the roof. It’s too early talk MVP, but we can think about putting him in the sub-Pujols category of Hanley/Howard/Fielder/Utley. The NL West boasts some incredible young talent in Kemp, Upton, & Tulo—we need to lock up the Bison before he has the chance to roam.
Matt Kemp sure is fun to watch
I am ever grateful that we didn’t trade him. He is just fun to watch every night. Funny enough, nowadays its Kemps at bats that I will stop to watch more than Mannys. Its a blast watching him develop into a super star.
With regards to pitching and free agency
it’s luck of the draw. You can find pitchers the Dodgers could’ve signed who are sucking, and others who are doing fairly well. I do think if there were not financial issues, the Dodgers could have signed someone better than Padilla to be a #4, and also signed Padilla to be #5. But the difference between that and what we’ve got now is not tremendous. We need our 1-4 to perform as expected and all will be OK.
Just for fun
Matt Kemp, after his first 13 MLB games (9 starts) in 2006: .366/.400/.829, 12 runs, 6 HR, 15 RBI
I remember that insane run by him in 06. I remember looking at the number prediction tool on ESPN and saying that he could be in the MVP running in a couple months (boy I was an idiot then…yes…then…>.> <.<). His next 30-40 games were not so hot, but that stretch really showed what his potential is, and it made people afraid to throw him a fastball. Ever since 2006 Matt Kemp has become my favorite Dodger by a pretty good margin, though Kershaw has gotten pretty close in the last year :)
Right now, Kemp is by far my favorite Dodger to watch, even a good bit in front of Kershaw, just because you can see the confidence in Kemp’s game which Kershaw is still trying to master. Kemp looks incredibly comfortable at the plate right now, he goes up there with a plan most times and is looking to do damage every AB.
Ronals Belisario getting activated today will mean he lost 17 days pay while on the restricted list, or a total of $38,320 in salary
38K
That’s like a days wage for some of us. Chump change.
by Skunkburner on Apr 21, 2010 2:08 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
I wonder if it was ever considered by management, or even by the player himself
But how great would it have been if Sheets was signed instead of Padilla. I know Sheets is making 2 times what Padilla is, but we all know how good of a pitcher that guy is, and he could really help this team. The biggest concern, of course, would be Schmidt part 2, but with it being a 1 year deal, I think it’s worth the gamble.
I like Sheets…a lot…but I wouldn’t have touched him with that contract.
by Eric Stephen on Apr 21, 2010 9:47 AM PDT up reply actions
1 year 10 mill for someone who could end up producing MUCH more than Padilla for 1 year 5 mill seems like a good gamble to take. I do see the concern, because if he goes down we’re left with only 3 legitimate MLB starters, but if he’s healthy that top 4 would look very good (once Billingsley fixes his mechanics).
After the year off, there is too much risk for my tastes, and while his upside is certainly higher than Padilla, the likelihood of him reaching that is very questionable.
by Eric Stephen on Apr 21, 2010 9:56 AM PDT up reply actions
I think you say that until he blows out his arm again.
by Chad Moriyama on Apr 21, 2010 10:01 AM PDT up reply actions
I don’t think we’d be in this situation if the organization was committed on developing their young players. They constantly try to throw road blocks in front of them and only then rely on them as a last resort.
Who are you talking about? The description you have above certainly doesn’t apply to Kershaw. Billingsley has been relied upon. The team did screw up the Kemp/Ethier situation by bring in guys like Gonzo/Pierre/Jones to block them, but we are succesfully past that point now. McDonald and Elbert are getting outpitched in AAA by Towers such that Towers has to be the pitcher who would be called up to replace an injured/ineffective SP. The only beef I see is the bullpen management, which was screwed up by having in guys like Weaver, Ortiz and Ortiz.
by Michael White on Apr 21, 2010 10:00 AM PDT up reply actions
Andy LaRoche was never given a shot, Blake DeWitt lasat year was called up 5 times, Tony Abreu was jerked around by Torre and Colletti, the team traded Santana for Casey Blake, and pretty much saying that both DeWitt, and LaRoche aren’t 3rd baseman material.
When the Dodgers needed a starting pitcher last year around August, they intentionally called up Elbert, announced he would make a start, and then stuck him in relief, ruining any chance of his arm being stretched out enough to do any starting.
And don’t get me started on what happened to Stults. Ned Colletti’s dream team is the 2002-2003 Giants.
Okay, so road blocks are thrown in front of “some” young players I guess. Even so, Dewitt, LaRoche and Elbert haven’t exactly set the world on fire and its hard to argue that DeWitt could have given you more last year than Hudson did. The young players they have backed like Kershaw have succeeded in the role given and has been relied upon.
Short of Santana, I don’t see how any of those moves you disagreed with (and I had problems with as well) are currently hurting the team such that you should you “don’t think we’d be in this situation” right now. DeWitt is now starting, LaRoche has turned into Manny Ramirez and Elbert is currently struggling in AAA. Unless you think psychological damage from being given the start last year only to lose it thanks to an unfortunately time extra inning game, I’m not sure how you blame NedCo for Elbert sucking.
by Michael White on Apr 21, 2010 10:15 AM PDT up reply actions
There are plenty of things to rip Colletti for, but I think you are letting your frustrations boil over, and much of it is misguided.
Also, let’s assume for a second the 2002-2003 Giants are his dream team. They won 195 games in those two years, and were this close to winning a World Series. If you are going to have a “dream team” among the teams Colletti has been on, good luck finding a better 2-year period.
by Eric Stephen on Apr 21, 2010 10:15 AM PDT up reply actions
Well, I dunno
I’ll oversimplify for a minute: the Giants’ plan in those years seemed to be:
1. Get the best hitter of all time
2. Surround him with nothing
3. Win the World Series
And the crazy thing is, it almost worked.
The Ultimate Ned's Kind of Guy
by Humma Kavula on Apr 21, 2010 10:20 AM PDT up reply actions
But how in the hell are you going to replicate the 2002-2003 Giants by signing/trading for middling veterans? That team had such a great base in Barry Bonds, and couldn’t really sustained by adding crappy vets. I mean, Sabean still hasn’t learned his lesson to this year, believing that signing DeRosa, Huff, and Sanchez to overpriced contracts will greatly helped him his team to contention.
Sure, the Giants might win the NL West, but it’ll be because Timmah became a pitching God, but because DeRosa playing LF is the missing link.
I’m saying I don’t think these Dodgers are necessarily trying to replicate those Giant teams.
You are occupying one end of the overreaction spectrum, blaming the current short-term pitching woes on Ned Colletti blocking players in 2007, while Tony Jackson occupies the other, saying Billingsley has been mostly bad for 4 years.
I’m searching for factual accuracy somewhere in the middle.
by Eric Stephen on Apr 21, 2010 10:23 AM PDT up reply actions
I’m saying that both the Giants and the current Dodgers are trying to replicate the free agent strategies that the 2002-2003 Giants made.
But true enough, I’m arguing for something that I believe in that strongly. I do think Colletti prefers veterans until he has no choice but to accept younger players (with the exception of Kershaw) and that hurts development with players like DeWitt and Hu.
Are they ever going to be good players? Maybe not, but the Dodgers tend to make sure they got their bases covered with veteran free agents before they have to find out.
Didn’t sucking at AAA for two years hurt Hu’s development more than anything the Dodgers did?
He was given quite a bit of playing time when Furcal went down in 2008, and he was terrible. And he has done nothing since to make me care about him one way or another.
by Eric Stephen on Apr 21, 2010 10:34 AM PDT up reply actions
Are you still looking at Hu as a potential starter?
He probably isn’t, but why not use him as we used him like we used Juan Castro last year?
Would it have been so bad to use him like we use Jamey Carroll this year?
I don’t think Hu is a starter, no, and I wouldn’t mind him occupying a spot on the bench. But I think that’s far, far down the list of “problems” with the team.
by Eric Stephen on Apr 21, 2010 10:39 AM PDT up reply actions
You are setting up a straw man argument. You brought up the comp of 2002-2003 Giants, not Eric. It was pointed out to you that the 2002-2003 Giants happened to win 195 games in that span.
by Michael White on Apr 21, 2010 10:24 AM PDT up reply actions
And the Dodgers may have valid reasons to not just allow guys like LaRoche/Dewitt, etc. to have starting spots for the Dodgers, its just I see the Dodgers have clear preference for starting established veterans over promising youngsters.
I mean, we trade Joshua Bell for George Sherrill despite having multiple young left handers at Triple-A that could handle ML pitching in Leach and Schilinting.
It might have made sense if we needed a ‘closer’, but we already had a closer in Broxton, and an 8th inning guy in Troncoso and Belisaro. And Kuo was coming back within a day of the trade. Why exactly did we trade for Sherrill again? Because the Dodgers like having the security veteran supposedly provides.
At the time of the Sherrill trade, yes Kuo was coming back, but is he really the type of pitcher you can count on, given his injury history?
Broxton was going through his toe issues in July, and Belisario was on the DL. Troncoso was working some prodigious inning totals. Leach was good in his early going with the club, but had struggled mightily to the point where they didn’t want to rely on him.
Also, Schlichting is right-handed.
by Eric Stephen on Apr 21, 2010 10:20 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
The question I have is that if the Dodgers could redo that trade over again, they’d say yes probably 9/10 times. Ned has no special attachment to prospects, its not how he wants to build his team.
I understand that, but that doesn’t mean I have to agree to it, and point out the flaws of a team signing Belliard, and Carroll to be the backup 3rd/2nd/SS basemen when you only need one of them.
Yeah, I know – small sample size – but this is Josh Bell’s line in AAA right now:
.191/.208/.255
Hopefully this one doesn’t turn into another Santana situation.
by silverwidow on Apr 21, 2010 10:29 AM PDT up reply actions
But I guess my point is, why are you bitching about signing Belliard and Carroll when our problem is pitching and signing them really doesn’t affect that at all?
You are kind of scattershot with your criticism this morning.
by Eric Stephen on Apr 21, 2010 10:30 AM PDT up reply actions
Our problem is also defense, particularly MI defense.
If the team really believed that DeWitt was their starting 2nd baseman for the next full year:
They probably shouldn’t have signed Hudson in 2009, and giving DeWitt a full year of playing time already. Not call him up and down so many times, killing any chance of getting consistent playing time anywhere.
And my contention is that the team in general prefers veterans to fill out the roster than younger players because the team can still afford the middle class to lower end vets.
I can't agree about the Hudson deal.
I can’t agree about the Hudson deal. The team was close enough to winning a WS that it wasn’t the right time to rely on a rookie (DeWitt) playing a position where he had no experience.
A lot of the apparent preference for vets over rookies can be explained by the team’s position in the standings. If they were the Padres, it would make sense to develop young guys by giving them playing time. But they’re on top of the division, with a gambler’s chance at making the Series, and that means they need to make moves that pay off immediately.
by MartinGreen on Apr 21, 2010 10:42 AM PDT up reply actions
Again, I agree with you and I was strongly opposed to the Sherrill for Bell deal. But unless you think Bell would be the starting third baseman and it would have helped the Dodgers this season to date, I’m not sure you are making the right argument.
Has Ned mortgaged the future by acquiring uneccesary veterans? Yes.
Has it hurt the present? No. Not yet.
by Michael White on Apr 21, 2010 10:22 AM PDT up reply actions
Is that really contributing to Billingsley’s struggles now? He was a great starting pitcher for a good two-year period from June 2007 to June 2009.
by Eric Stephen on Apr 21, 2010 10:12 AM PDT up reply actions
I didn't mean that
I was just talking about them blocking him a few years ago. I don’t think that hurt him, I think, in that situation, it helped him be hungrier.
The phrase "I don’t think we’d be in this situation " is what Eric and I are disagreeing with.
by Michael White on Apr 21, 2010 10:16 AM PDT up reply actions
Ah ok, I didn’t really consider that at all when I replied with my first statement. I was just thinking that Colletti has done quite a bit to block young players (Billingsley with Tomko and Hendrickson, Loney with Nomar, Laroche with Nomar, Kemp and Ethier with Jones, Pierre, Gonzo), but none of that has any affect on the current day team. If Dewitt was at the level of Kemp or Ethier, I’d be pissed about how he’s been handled, but he’s really nowhere close to that level by any stretch.
Kemp didn't have job security until last year
:o
by Chad Moriyama on Apr 21, 2010 10:00 AM PDT up reply actions
Kemp was 11th in the NL in starts in the OF in 2008
by Eric Stephen on Apr 21, 2010 10:04 AM PDT up reply actions
He had to earn that though...
2009 was the first year he was going to start without question.
by Chad Moriyama on Apr 21, 2010 10:06 AM PDT up reply actions
in 2008, didn’t they move Pierre and Either to left to compete in ST and give Kemp the RF job outright? I won’t talk about CF.
by CarolinaDodger on Apr 21, 2010 10:54 AM PDT up reply actions
Heyman wants the Cubs to move Dempster to the bullpen so Ted Lilly can take his bullpen spot.
…okay.
FWIW, here are the pitching probables per the Dodger game notes:
FRI: Haeger / Stammen
SAT: Kershaw / Marquis
SUN: Bills / Olsen
There was some talk about Kershaw pitching on regular rest Friday, but for now that doesn’t appear to be the case. I’d like to hear Torre address it though, which he will probably do today.
UZR is out on fangraphs
Kemp’s not looking so good (surprise? nope) on defense this season. He’s at 0.1 WAR because of the bad, bad fielding thus far. Even if he stays in the range he’s at (-6.2 UZR) his offense will bring him up with more time in the season. I’d really like to see him end up with at least a 2 UZR this year, and I think he could have a 5-7 fairly easily, but the fundamentals need to come back for him.
That being said, he is wrecking the shit out of the ball on offense, so I’m not worried about his defense for now.
Thats about what ive expected. Hes been really really bad, but it is super early so the numbers look even worse. Even still, with how hes been hitting the crap out of the ball, it big time outweighs his crappy fielding in my eyes.
by UCLADodger32 on Apr 21, 2010 10:32 AM PDT up reply actions
UZR for a full season is a small sample size (look how it can fluctuate year to year for no apparent reason). UZR for 2 1/2 weeks is beyond meaningless.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
We need a kick ass win today to quench the frustrations
by robotmadeofnails on Apr 21, 2010 10:24 AM PDT reply actions
a win, sponsored by the movie Kick Ass? :)
by Eric Stephen on Apr 21, 2010 10:24 AM PDT up reply actions
Which, btw, if you haven’t seen, go right now and do so. It’s the most enjoyable super hero movie I’ve ever seen. Not best mind you, but most enjoyable.
I probably will
But I have a hard time with anything having Nicolas Cage
by robotmadeofnails on Apr 21, 2010 11:24 AM PDT up reply actions
Granick pitching well this morning so far.
Now that I’m in on the joke, I feel free to call him “Granick.”
And I will also say that perhaps we can offer the Royals 63 used baseballs and a 5% interest in one of Frank McCourt’s houses for him.
They might do it!
The Ultimate Ned's Kind of Guy
And no sooner do I type this than he gives up a 2-run shot to Alex Gonzalez.
I am the jinx.
The Ultimate Ned's Kind of Guy
by Humma Kavula on Apr 21, 2010 10:33 AM PDT up reply actions
Not really following this story, so help me
Is this another example of a pro sport’s “Just don’t embarrass the league” policy? That is, we’ll look the other way and anything goes so long as you don’t get caught, in which case we will publicly shame you?
The Ultimate Ned's Kind of Guy
by Humma Kavula on Apr 21, 2010 10:37 AM PDT up reply actions
Pretty much.
Its worse since this is the 2nd time he’s been accused of raping a girl, and the local police decided to release the witness reports of the incident despite the DA deciding not to prosecute which pretty much paint Big Ben into having sex with a drunk girl that still said no.
I also think its the league saying that their professional conduct policy also applies to stars, and well, White people.
I’m torn here. I’m all for publicly shaming men who behave like douches. Fellas, I know it’s tough to figure out if she’s drinking for fun but doesn’t want sex or if she’s drinking to lower her inhibitions because she wants to have sex. Here’s a clue: did she ask you to stop? So yeah, public shaming.
On the other hand, making a habit of doing what Ben did — even if all the sex is consensual — is kinda skeevy. Leagues are perfectly happy with this skeeviness so long as the cops don’t get involved. The public shaming is kinda hypocritical.
Sigh. I’m going back to ignoring this stuff.
The Ultimate Ned's Kind of Guy
by Humma Kavula on Apr 21, 2010 10:55 AM PDT up reply actions
He can be had for a top 10 pick and Schefter says one team is considering it. So you might be right, he could be a Raider by tomorrow.
by silverwidow on Apr 21, 2010 10:45 AM PDT up reply actions
I don’t have a NFL team to root for, but I wouldn’t touch him with a ten foot pole. People worry about players smoking weed, but guys with sex addiction are even worse since their addiction bankrupt them much more quickly due to paternal suits, child support, etc.
But this Al Davis were talking about. I think the Raiders were the California Felon to Work program in the 70’s and 80’s.
i bballed with JaMarcus
about 2 months ago…he was still fat and lazy on the court. wouldn’t run back for D and one possession he had a wide open lane for a dunk and couldn’t even get up to jam it.
And he’s 6’7. That’s pitiful.
Per Schefter - Bills and Rams not interested
Please Al, please get this done.
Mr. Strasburg's line today
Yes, MR. Strasburg.
5 IP, 1 hit, 1 walk, 6 Ks.
Season totals:
0.73 ERA, 17/3 K/BB in 12.1 IP.
He's ready for his close-up
The Ultimate Ned's Kind of Guy
by Humma Kavula on Apr 21, 2010 10:50 AM PDT up reply actions
Nationals at Dodger Stadium August 6-8. Just sayin.
by silverwidow on Apr 21, 2010 10:58 AM PDT up reply actions
Saturday, August 7 -- Kavula family will be watching from the loge
The Ultimate Ned's Kind of Guy
by Humma Kavula on Apr 21, 2010 11:00 AM PDT up reply actions
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