A Look at Inherited Runners

Jeff Weaver has been effective in tough situations so far this season.

Here's a look at runners inherited by the Dodger bullpen this season, through tonight's game in Washington DC.  Using the Baseball Prospectus Run Expectancy Matrix, we can find out the average runs scored each inning after every base-out situation.  For instance, having runners on first and third base with nobody out yielded an average of 1.92135 runs from that point forward in the inning. 

Here are all the situations so far with inherited runners this season:

Jeff Weaver
Date Inning Bases Outs Inherited Runners Scored Expected Runs Runs Saved
Apr 7
5th 123 2 3 0 0.76613 0.76613
Apr 8
6th -2- 1 1 1 0.67372 (0.32628)
Apr 10
5th 12- 1 2 0 0.96214 0.96214
Apr 13
6th 12- 1 2 1 0.96214 (0.03786)
Apr 18
8th 1-- 0 1 0 0.88248 0.88248
Totals 9 2 4.24661 2.24661

 

Ramon Ortiz
Date Inning Bases Outs Inherited Runners Scored Expected Runs Runs Saved
Apr 5
5th 123 1 3 3 1.53403 (1.46597)
Apr 14
7th 12- 1 2 0 0.96214 0.96214
Apr 15
9th 123 1 3 0 1.53403 1.53403
Apr 23
6th 1-- 1 1 0 0.53125 0.53125
Totals 9 3 4.56145 1.56145

 

Ramon Troncoso
Date Inning Bases Outs Inherited Runners Scored Expected Runs Runs Saved
Apr 13
7th 1-- 2 1 0 0.22795 0.22795
Apr 14
6th -23 2 2 0 0.57143 0.57143
Apr 16
9th 12- 2 2 2 0.44000 (1.56000)
Apr 18
8th 12- 2 2 0 0.44000 0.44000
Apr 22
8th 1-3 1 2 0 0.94382 0.94382
Totals 9 2 2.62320 0.62320

 

Carlos Monasterios
Date Inning Bases Outs Inherited Runners Scored Expected Runs Runs Saved
Apr 17
4th 12- 0 2 2 1.58113 (0.41887)
Totals 2 2 1.58113 (0.41887)

 

Jonathan Broxton
Date Inning Bases Outs Inherited Runners Scored Expected Runs Runs Saved
Apr 9
9th 123 1 3 2 1.53403 (0.46597)
Totals 3
2 1.53403 (0.46597)

 

George Sherrill
Date Inning Bases Outs Inherited Runners Scored Expected Runs Runs Saved
Apr 10
9th 1-- 0 1 1 0.88248 (0.11752)
Apr 18
8th 12- 1 2 0 0.96214 0.96214
Apr 21
6th 1-3 2 2 2 0.45833 (1.54167)
Totals 5
3 2.30295 (0.69705)

 

Ronald Belisario
Date Inning Bases Outs Inherited Runners Scored Expected Runs Runs Saved
Apr 22
7th 12- 1 2 2 0.96214 (1.03786)
Totals 2 2 0.96214 (1.03786)

 

Inherited Runners Scored Expected Runs Runs Saved
Team Totals 39 16 17.81151 1.81151

So the Dodgers have given up almost two runs less than expected in those situations. Raise your hand if you noticed that since opening day, Ramon Ortiz has left all six inherited runners stranded.

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