FanPost

April 24th, Dodgers vs Nationals - Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Dodgers and the Nationals using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores.  This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last.  Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.  Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran on Friday at 11:30 PM)

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob
LAN WAS C.Kershaw vs C.Stammen LAN 62.12% 56.34%

 

Notes:  Vegas still has faith in Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers, even as they are tied for last place in the NL West and are coming off of back to back drubbings from young and/or inexperienced pitchers.  I would imagine once the "smart" money wakes up early in the morning that this line will move towards the Nationals a little bit.  Get your guesses in and keep in mind that Saturday's game is an early start.  Mother nature and her naughty son Precipitation could be a factor in whether or not this game gets played.

 

Top 150 Most Likely Scores

1 WAS 3-2   51 LAN 8-1   101 WAS 10-2
2 WAS 2-1   52 LAN 8-2   102 WAS 10-5
3 WAS 4-3   53 WAS 7-3   103 WAS 10-1
4 LAN 3-2   54 WAS 7-2   104 WAS 10-4
5 LAN 2-1   55 LAN 8-4   105 LAN 10-7
6 LAN 4-3   56 WAS 5-0   106 WAS 9-7
7 LAN 4-2   57 WAS 7-5   107 WAS 9-0
8 LAN 3-1   58 LAN 8-5   108 LAN 11-5
9 WAS 5-4   59 LAN 9-2   109 LAN 12-3
10 LAN 4-1   60 LAN 9-3   110 LAN 12-2
11 LAN 5-4   61 WAS 7-1   111 LAN 11-0
12 LAN 5-3   62 LAN 8-0   112 LAN 12-1
13 LAN 5-2   63 LAN 9-1   113 WAS 11-4
14 WAS 4-2   64 WAS 8-7   114 WAS 11-2
15 WAS 3-1   65 LAN 8-6   115 WAS 11-3
16 LAN 3-0   66 WAS 8-3   116 WAS 10-6
17 WAS 1-0   67 WAS 6-0   117 LAN 11-6
18 LAN 2-0   68 WAS 8-2   118 LAN 10-8
19 LAN 5-1   69 WAS 8-5   119 LAN 12-4
20 LAN 1-0   70 WAS 8-4   120 LAN 12-5
21 WAS 6-5   71 LAN 9-0   121 WAS 10-9
22 LAN 6-2   72 LAN 9-4   122 WAS 11-5
23 LAN 4-0   73 LAN 8-7   123 WAS 11-1
24 WAS 5-3   74 LAN 10-3   124 WAS 10-7
25 LAN 6-3   75 LAN 9-5   125 WAS 12-3
26 WAS 4-1   76 WAS 8-1   126 LAN 11-7
27 LAN 6-4   77 LAN 10-2   127 WAS 10-8
28 WAS 5-2   78 LAN 10-1   128 LAN 13-3
29 LAN 6-1   79 LAN 9-6   129 LAN 13-2
30 WAS 2-0   80 WAS 8-6   130 LAN 12-0
31 LAN 6-5   81 WAS 9-3   131 WAS 12-4
32 LAN 5-0   82 WAS 9-2   132 LAN 10-9
33 WAS 6-3   83 WAS 7-0   133 WAS 10-0
34 LAN 7-2   84 LAN 10-4   134 WAS 11-6
35 LAN 7-3   85 WAS 9-4   135 WAS 12-1
36 WAS 6-4   86 LAN 9-7   136 WAS 12-2
37 WAS 5-1   87 WAS 9-1   137 LAN 13-1
38 LAN 7-1   88 WAS 9-8   138 LAN 13-0
39 WAS 3-0   89 LAN 11-3   139 LAN 13-4
40 LAN 6-0   90 LAN 10-5   140 LAN 12-6
41 LAN 7-4   91 LAN 11-2   141 WAS 11-7
42 WAS 7-6   92 LAN 10-0   142 WAS 11-10
43 WAS 6-2   93 WAS 10-3   143 LAN 14-3
44 LAN 7-5   94 WAS 9-5   144 LAN 11-8
45 WAS 4-0   95 WAS 8-0   145 WAS 12-5
46 WAS 6-1   96 LAN 11-4   146 WAS 13-3
47 LAN 8-3   97 LAN 10-6   147 LAN 11-9
48 LAN 7-0   98 WAS 9-6   148 LAN 14-1
49 LAN 7-6   99 LAN 11-1   149 WAS 12-6
50 WAS 7-4   100 LAN 9-8   150 WAS 11-0
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