FanPost

April 24th, Dodgers vs Nationals - Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Dodgers and the Nationals using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores.  This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last.  Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.  Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran on Friday at 11:30 PM)

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob
LAN WAS C.Kershaw vs C.Stammen LAN 62.12% 56.34%

 

Notes:  Vegas still has faith in Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers, even as they are tied for last place in the NL West and are coming off of back to back drubbings from young and/or inexperienced pitchers.  I would imagine once the "smart" money wakes up early in the morning that this line will move towards the Nationals a little bit.  Get your guesses in and keep in mind that Saturday's game is an early start.  Mother nature and her naughty son Precipitation could be a factor in whether or not this game gets played.

 

Top 150 Most Likely Scores

1 WAS 3-2 &nbsp 51 LAN 8-1 &nbsp 101 WAS 10-2
2 WAS 2-1 &nbsp 52 LAN 8-2 &nbsp 102 WAS 10-5
3 WAS 4-3 &nbsp 53 WAS 7-3 &nbsp 103 WAS 10-1
4 LAN 3-2 &nbsp 54 WAS 7-2 &nbsp 104 WAS 10-4
5 LAN 2-1 &nbsp 55 LAN 8-4 &nbsp 105 LAN 10-7
6 LAN 4-3 &nbsp 56 WAS 5-0 &nbsp 106 WAS 9-7
7 LAN 4-2 &nbsp 57 WAS 7-5 &nbsp 107 WAS 9-0
8 LAN 3-1 &nbsp 58 LAN 8-5 &nbsp 108 LAN 11-5
9 WAS 5-4 &nbsp 59 LAN 9-2 &nbsp 109 LAN 12-3
10 LAN 4-1 &nbsp 60 LAN 9-3 &nbsp 110 LAN 12-2
11 LAN 5-4 &nbsp 61 WAS 7-1 &nbsp 111 LAN 11-0
12 LAN 5-3 &nbsp 62 LAN 8-0 &nbsp 112 LAN 12-1
13 LAN 5-2 &nbsp 63 LAN 9-1 &nbsp 113 WAS 11-4
14 WAS 4-2 &nbsp 64 WAS 8-7 &nbsp 114 WAS 11-2
15 WAS 3-1 &nbsp 65 LAN 8-6 &nbsp 115 WAS 11-3
16 LAN 3-0 &nbsp 66 WAS 8-3 &nbsp 116 WAS 10-6
17 WAS 1-0 &nbsp 67 WAS 6-0 &nbsp 117 LAN 11-6
18 LAN 2-0 &nbsp 68 WAS 8-2 &nbsp 118 LAN 10-8
19 LAN 5-1 &nbsp 69 WAS 8-5 &nbsp 119 LAN 12-4
20 LAN 1-0 &nbsp 70 WAS 8-4 &nbsp 120 LAN 12-5
21 WAS 6-5 &nbsp 71 LAN 9-0 &nbsp 121 WAS 10-9
22 LAN 6-2 &nbsp 72 LAN 9-4 &nbsp 122 WAS 11-5
23 LAN 4-0 &nbsp 73 LAN 8-7 &nbsp 123 WAS 11-1
24 WAS 5-3 &nbsp 74 LAN 10-3 &nbsp 124 WAS 10-7
25 LAN 6-3 &nbsp 75 LAN 9-5 &nbsp 125 WAS 12-3
26 WAS 4-1 &nbsp 76 WAS 8-1 &nbsp 126 LAN 11-7
27 LAN 6-4 &nbsp 77 LAN 10-2 &nbsp 127 WAS 10-8
28 WAS 5-2 &nbsp 78 LAN 10-1 &nbsp 128 LAN 13-3
29 LAN 6-1 &nbsp 79 LAN 9-6 &nbsp 129 LAN 13-2
30 WAS 2-0 &nbsp 80 WAS 8-6 &nbsp 130 LAN 12-0
31 LAN 6-5 &nbsp 81 WAS 9-3 &nbsp 131 WAS 12-4
32 LAN 5-0 &nbsp 82 WAS 9-2 &nbsp 132 LAN 10-9
33 WAS 6-3 &nbsp 83 WAS 7-0 &nbsp 133 WAS 10-0
34 LAN 7-2 &nbsp 84 LAN 10-4 &nbsp 134 WAS 11-6
35 LAN 7-3 &nbsp 85 WAS 9-4 &nbsp 135 WAS 12-1
36 WAS 6-4 &nbsp 86 LAN 9-7 &nbsp 136 WAS 12-2
37 WAS 5-1 &nbsp 87 WAS 9-1 &nbsp 137 LAN 13-1
38 LAN 7-1 &nbsp 88 WAS 9-8 &nbsp 138 LAN 13-0
39 WAS 3-0 &nbsp 89 LAN 11-3 &nbsp 139 LAN 13-4
40 LAN 6-0 &nbsp 90 LAN 10-5 &nbsp 140 LAN 12-6
41 LAN 7-4 &nbsp 91 LAN 11-2 &nbsp 141 WAS 11-7
42 WAS 7-6 &nbsp 92 LAN 10-0 &nbsp 142 WAS 11-10
43 WAS 6-2 &nbsp 93 WAS 10-3 &nbsp 143 LAN 14-3
44 LAN 7-5 &nbsp 94 WAS 9-5 &nbsp 144 LAN 11-8
45 WAS 4-0 &nbsp 95 WAS 8-0 &nbsp 145 WAS 12-5
46 WAS 6-1 &nbsp 96 LAN 11-4 &nbsp 146 WAS 13-3
47 LAN 8-3 &nbsp 97 LAN 10-6 &nbsp 147 LAN 11-9
48 LAN 7-0 &nbsp 98 WAS 9-6 &nbsp 148 LAN 14-1
49 LAN 7-6 &nbsp 99 LAN 11-1 &nbsp 149 WAS 12-6
50 WAS 7-4 &nbsp 100 LAN 9-8 &nbsp 150 WAS 11-0
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